Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Which is exactly why I think your idea is bad. I’m pretty sure you’re scum with Bozo, so why let you dictate this whole ordeal?

I’ll follow Toms lead. If he thinks we should self-lynch me, so he it. I’m done humoring your insane scummy machinations.

[Percy Williams]

Percy. I don’t understand what you are trying to say. You are presenting what you think is a contradiction (it’s not - not all crumbs are the same), but even so a contradiction does not equal scum.

As Scum, you have to pretend to act in town's interest while plotting their death. I believe that Bozotheclown has been attempting to get information for the Mafia all game. From the Massclaim to the scum team lists to pushing Chaqa for a reveal of who he loves. That would match the scum team this game, as they have directly targeted PRs over Townclears. I believe that the scum team figured out that Dargo was the tracker, and that EP is scum to get us to mislynch and win, but specifically Dargo's role thanks to the handy scum read teams charts (but that is a high risk vote if we get wrong, so I at least think we should vote outside of that).
Back to my original point, Bozo knows that revealing D1 gives information to the Mafia, and doesn't help Town, so he points it out as scummy behavior. Then he remembers his entire narrative d1 was that everyone should claim, so he has to backtrack, and say it would have helped Town, and he made a mistake not doing so.
Even presuming that Bozo is 100% Town (which I don't believe) why is he suddenly on the right track with voting for Chaqa? It seems like the plan probably accidentally helps Scum if Bozo likes it... Oh yeah! It inherently has us lynch Town. (To Worcej, who is invariably yelling at me through his screen right now: I get the math reasons why we'd want to remove the lover, and earlier rather than later, but We're just as dead if we never catch scum)

[bo_sox48]

Xorxes, Bo, EP, and Chaqa are being incredibly scummy by choosing to ignore this situation or try to say the 50/50 shot on EP and Darg is better. They are choosing to play a dumb WIFOM theory test with the game, but the only ones that should want that are the scum team themselves.

When did I ignore Chaqa? I just said I think both Espresso and darg are scum and made the case for it and left it at that lmao, you need to chill.

[bo_sox48]

Like the entire last page of this thread right now is basically saying that if I say anything other than OFF WITH CHAQA’S HEAD that I’m defying logic and deserve to either die or lose? Why do you get so caught up, worcej?

[ItsHosuke]

I get the issue right now, but being a newbie, I would rather tag along with @Fox and @Tom. I hope we can figure this out

[EspressoPatronum]

Ok, I did a darg iso. My goal in creating this post is twofold:
1. To exhibit darg's scumminess; and
2. To draw inferences from scum!darg to help with reads.

IT IS NOT intended:
1. to convince you to vote darg right now (looking at you, worcej); or
2. to convince you the darg v EP fight isn't SvS. I leave that to everyone else to decide.

I've included what I believe to be the more important posts. His ISO is pretty short, so I encourage you all to take a look for yourselves.

SUMMARY of FINDINGS
Scum:
bozo (bussed by darg)
foodcoats

scumlean:
worcej

townlean:
flash
Jamie

Town:
xorxes
Percy

Interaction notes:
He never mentions foodcoats
He's obsessed with the masons
He's obsessed with bozo
trivial interactions with worcej

Darg --> PERCY

"And Percy has seemed more and more questionable to me. In addition to what otehrs have brought up, he seems to be PR fishing... emphasizing clarification of those who have soft-claimed." - p42

He started with a Percy joke and went right into a serious SR of Percy later. I don't think scum busses this early. Town points to Percy.

Sigh...
I was feeling better about Percy. But then he went all unsure about his claim.
I am interested in Jamie. He seems very terse and mad, like scumjamie. If there is something else about him, please summarize. I expect to be in full Monday. Your patience is appreciated.

I am going to VOTE ## Percy Williams but will try to scan again if I get the chance. - p97

Potential fake crumb? Doesn't matter too much, as he's drilling down on his Percy read.

IMPORTANT NOTE - Darg does not mention Percy at any point during D3 (the night after his "Percy track.")


MASONS

I actually amnot fully on board with the mason-claims. - p133

TBH this is one of several anti-mason posts. Look back at his ISO and you'll see it's full of anti-mason propaganda. He was trying to discredit Fox and Hosu from the very beginning.

Darg --> BOZO

And the massclaim thing.

Bozo seems so very analytical and single minded. IMO, usually he is interactive and developing. Here he makes a wild massclaim proposal (which he must have known isn't going to work... it has the reputation of aiding scum more than town.. and there will always be a holdout.)

BUT if he were making this claim idea hoping some might jump out and claim.... it is a simply but worthy gambit. And if bozo is scum making this plan, he has no reason to fall from it. All he would need to do is keep bringing it up occassionally. Which is exactly what he has done.

Similarly, his list. Sure, lists are good. But it doesn't feel like he is using the list to drive discussion. He feels like a live Peterbot.
This is not bozo's usual play.

He didn't give a firm comment on bozo until N2 after people had started scumreading bozo. This post is when he hops on the bozo bandwagon + scum likely starts to bus bozo.

While darg talks a lot about bozo in D1, he doesn't make a deliberation on whether he thinks bozo's idea is very bad or maybe good. It's all super hedgy. He keeps bozo and the 2 masons (unconfirmed at this point) in his lynch pool.

Things I kinda liked in the overnight:
worcej's opening comment of his drunk tirade. Mechanics vs. motivation. Worcej, do you read Agatha Christie?
Jamie's espresso deduction. Prime Jamie stuff.
But today's wagons are Vaporwave or bozo.
Both of which are swimming in the scumpool.
Vapor's expression of his inner soul reminds me a lot of MY defenses when I have been scum. Although I am unsure of what aTe stands for.
##VOTE VAPORWAVE - p.159

Again, I think scum had decided to keep bozo up as a bus target. This and the post before it are distancing darg from bozo while also trying to push the scum agenda of lynching town.

Trivial interaction with worcej. He's asking a question for the sake of it.

Trying to get on Jamie's good side. Town points to Jamie I think.

Darg --> XORXES

His scum reads were: "Chaqa, Foodcoats, Flash, worcej and Fox are my guesses. Maybe we can replace Fox by bozo and then Chaqa by Vapor"

One of those, or too obv?

And why not xorxes? No fear of him this game? -143

God, this is so hedgy. He's sticking up for Chaqa here. Mentions xorxes

No one would disagree that xorxes is experienced and good at this game. It's why he is NKed so often. Usually, around now, we start to wonder why xorxes has NOT been NKed. -179

Trying to stir up some paranoia on xorxes? If we make it to D7, we know for sure whether xorxes is scum or town.

OTHER

@espresso
What reasons do you perceive that either scum OR town might not be honest in their DP choice? Do you assume that town would be honest?

Trying to use my DP smokescreen for PR info. worcej started calling me out for the smokescreen thing, too. I think they decided to use this as ammunition against me.

When we combine/intersect vapor's RB, and his suggestion of flash...

Maybe those things point to our first scum.

##vote flash2015

I'm not even sure what this means, but it makes me think town!flash more.

[TrPrado]

dargorygel (4): Foxcastle, EspressoPatronum, Chaqa, ItsHosuke
bozotheclown (3): Jamiet99uk, xorxes, Percy Williams
Chaqa (2): bozotheclown, worcej
EspressoPatronum (2): dargorygel, foodcoats
flash2015 (1): flash2015
bo_sox48 (1): bo_sox48

DARGORYGEL is currently on the path to extinction.

The following player still needs to vote:
Tom Bombadil

11 hours and 3 minutes remain in the day

[xorxes]

##VOTE worcej just as a placeholder. I don't like 3 votes on bozo today.

@Jamiet, you are the last one left to claim.

[dargorygel]

They're fishing for PR s. They sacrificed Percy to fish out whether there is a tracker, figuring that the tracker would counter because I'm done and now a VT. No scum needs to vote for me because they will reveal themselves when I flip dog. They already got what they wanted through espresso. Knowledge.
Then they pushed chaqa to reveal to confirm the PR. That wasn't working, so then tthey started the Lynch someone else plan .. amount the unknowns

I still don't see why... But I see their methods.

Maybe since they are smooth sailing they wanna add to their glory by hitting all the PRs.

I'm leaving my vote where I know is scum you should too.

[xorxes]

@worcej, the main problem with your math is that it doesn't factor in any reads, it assumes that everything is completely random. And even then, I'm not sure you get everything right. For example, the chances of dargo being scum, based purely on randomness, are way higher than 50%. Same for EP.

From the point of view of the clears, we have 6 unclear towns and 5 scum left. From the point of view of an unclear town, we have 5 unclear towns and 5 scum. Since we're both in this group I will do the calculations from our point of view.

We know for sure that one of them is scum. The chances of the other being scum as well are 4/10. So the chance of dargo being scum is 1/2 + (1/2)*(4/10) = 70%. Same for EP. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

This means the chance of mislynching if we lynch one of them is at most 30%. The chance of losing the game is way less, because we haven't factored in the chance that there is no human, the chance that there is no cow, the chance that they get Chaqa's loved one wrong, the chance that Chaqa is not the Lover, etc.

And most importantly, you haven't factored in your reads. This assumes you have no clue whatsoever about who might be scum and who might be town.

And the main reason I don't want to lynch Chaqa is that I want Tom alive as long as possible. No offence to the masons, but I trust Tome more than them.

And while I'm happy to discuss the math further (if you calm down and explain clearly), could you please also give your reads on the remaining unclears?

[EspressoPatronum]

We know for sure that one of them is scum. The chances of the other being scum as well are 4/9. So the chance of dargo being scum is 1/2 + (1/2)*(4/9) = 72%. Same for EP. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

I believe the denominator should shrink when you're removing one of either me or darg from the equation. The nominator (scum) should be reduced by 1 if you're assuming one of either me or darg is scum + is also removed.

This means the chance of mislynching if we lynch one of them is at most 28%. ...

That being said, you need to take a page out of your advice to worcej. This is all numbers and isn't necessarily factoring in reads. I have no idea how to calculate this, but you also have to consider the likelihood of two scum using this counterclaim strategy.

[Foxcastle]

I have not caught up since yesterday mid-day, but how the fuck do we have counterclaims between Dargo and Espresso, and yet Bozo is the runner-up wagon???

[xorxes]

I feel fairly confident in the EP v darg fight, but I'm not sure about what to do in the aftermath.

You actually think with town logic. Nothing about you right now sounds towny because for some fucking reason you think Chaqa can wait and we should deal with the 50/50.

It's not 50/50, we should be clear about that. It's 70/30, because there's a good chance both are scum. So if we're going to do it by math we need to get it right.

The longer we keep a town Chaqa in the game, we will end up getting fucked. Am I the only person who actually utilizes math in their occupation? The odds of losing are HIGHER if Chaqa is telling the truth and is the Lover.

That's true, but we don't make the odds better by lynching him. Randing Lover is bad for town. That doesn't mean that lynching Lover, given that we randed it, is good for town. If we knew for certain that Chaqa is the Lover then obviously lynching him is a bad option. If we knew for certain that he is scum, lynching him is as good as lynching any other scum. We don't know for sure, so we need to rely on our reads.

Why do we need to sort this out now when we can lynch chaqa then resolve the fucking Darg vs EP scenario tomorrow?!?!?!?!?

And turning this around, why do we need to sort Chaqa now when we can lynch darg or EP and resolve the Chaqa thing tomorrow? Maybe scum will resolve Chaqa for us and we don't need to waste a mislynch. We won't have any more info on darg vs EP tomorrow, we will only have fewer people and so a more risky lynch given that one of them is likely the cow.

WHY ARE ANY OF THE TOWN PLAYERS NOT SEEING THIS?!?!?!? WHERE THE FUCK IS MY FUCKING TEAM!??!?!?!?!

Relax and let's think this through. Screaming won't convince anyone.

[worcej]

Like the entire last page of this thread right now is basically saying that if I say anything other than OFF WITH CHAQA’S HEAD that I’m defying logic and deserve to either die or lose? Why do you get so caught up, worcej?

Because I get mad when I watch multiple people, especially people who I am towning, just disregard this issue. Make sense?

@worcej, the main problem with your math is that it doesn't factor in any reads, it assumes that everything is completely random. And even then, I'm not sure you get everything right. For example, the chances of dargo being scum, based purely on randomness, are way higher than 50%. Same for EP.

From the point of view of the clears, we have 6 unclear towns and 5 scum left. From the point of view of an unclear town, we have 5 unclear towns and 5 scum. Since we're both in this group I will do the calculations from our point of view.

We know for sure that one of them is scum. The chances of the other being scum as well are 4/10. So the chance of dargo being scum is 1/2 + (1/2)*(4/10) = 70%. Same for EP. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

This means the chance of mislynching if we lynch one of them is at most 30%. The chance of losing the game is way less, because we haven't factored in the chance that there is no human, the chance that there is no cow, the chance that they get Chaqa's loved one wrong, the chance that Chaqa is not the Lover, etc.

And most importantly, you haven't factored in your reads. This assumes you have no clue whatsoever about who might be scum and who might be town.

And the main reason I don't want to lynch Chaqa is that I want Tom alive as long as possible. No offence to the masons, but I trust Tome more than them.

And while I'm happy to discuss the math further (if you calm down and explain clearly), could you please also give your reads on the remaining unclears?

So to start, your math is fundamentally off because the 50% odds of getting darg/EP wrong operates under the assumption that one is town and one is scum. You have to start with that baseline assumption to get 50%

So what are the odds they are both scum? The math is this: (5/14)*(4/13) = 10.98%

The reason the math is that is this - you start with one of them, the population is 14 players and 5 scum (which is 35.7%). Then you need to find the same odds for the next one, however the population is now 13 and there a 4 scum chance because you already removed one from the population and assigned it (btw 4/13 = 30.7%). Then you multiple the two together to find out the odds of them both being scum.

Same logic is used, in a simpler way, to say what are the odds of getting 4 heads on a coin flip if you do it 4 times: (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = (1/16) = 6.25%.

And you're right, I am simply mathing this right now - reads are irrelevant and quite frankly are more muddier than the math. Sounds dumb, but when you factor there are 5 scum players driving the game in their direction that is contrary to what the town wants, it's even more worse.

That being said, for someone who has said this to me...

FWIW Percy - scan one of the 14... don't waste it on someone stupid like rdr just did with his shot.

I wish people would bother to read the setup.

I think worcej is probably town though.

...I think you just scum slipped in that wall.

[xorxes]

xorxes is ignoring the reasons we should lynch Chaqa today, so I have to assume he is scum. Besides, I find it hard to believe xorxes is so sure Percy and Chaqa are town when he supposedly thought emc and ItsHosuke were scum despite their claims that would make no sense for scum.

I'm not so sure that Percy and Chaqa are town. I'm sure that if they are scum they are already caught, and if they are town the Mafia will sort them for us. I also tend to believe their claims. Percy has not obvtowned as strongly as damo, but he has not been too scummy either. Chaqa had some good towny moments earlier but is not doing so good lately. I still think he is more likely town.

Hosuke was a complete null. He had said nothing to make me think he was a townie, and his out-of-nowhere claim could have come just as easily from inexperienced scum as from inexperienced town. The fact you were so sure it was the latter is also telling.

emc's claim was also NAI. And you insisting that I base my reads mainly on claims is also bad.

Foxcastle, ItsHosuke, and Tom, please consider the reasons why lynching Chaqa is the best option today. You should be the ones leading the lynch today.

I agree, but I welcome that they are not shutting up discussion.

Could you give your updated reads now that we know damo was town and that at least one of EP/dargo are scum? You were wrong on both of those things, so I would like to know your current reads.

[worcej]

I feel fairly confident in the EP v darg fight, but I'm not sure about what to do in the aftermath.

You actually think with town logic. Nothing about you right now sounds towny because for some fucking reason you think Chaqa can wait and we should deal with the 50/50.

It's not 50/50, we should be clear about that. It's 70/30, because there's a good chance both are scum. So if we're going to do it by math we need to get it right.

The longer we keep a town Chaqa in the game, we will end up getting fucked. Am I the only person who actually utilizes math in their occupation? The odds of losing are HIGHER if Chaqa is telling the truth and is the Lover.

That's true, but we don't make the odds better by lynching him. Randing Lover is bad for town. That doesn't mean that lynching Lover, given that we randed it, is good for town. If we knew for certain that Chaqa is the Lover then obviously lynching him is a bad option. If we knew for certain that he is scum, lynching him is as good as lynching any other scum. We don't know for sure, so we need to rely on our reads.

Why do we need to sort this out now when we can lynch chaqa then resolve the fucking Darg vs EP scenario tomorrow?!?!?!?!?

And turning this around, why do we need to sort Chaqa now when we can lynch darg or EP and resolve the Chaqa thing tomorrow? Maybe scum will resolve Chaqa for us and we don't need to waste a mislynch. We won't have any more info on darg vs EP tomorrow, we will only have fewer people and so a more risky lynch given that one of them is likely the cow.

WHY ARE ANY OF THE TOWN PLAYERS NOT SEEING THIS?!?!?!? WHERE THE FUCK IS MY FUCKING TEAM!??!?!?!?!

Relax and let's think this through. Screaming won't convince anyone.

Again. Math is wrong, I just showed you how. 10% odds they are both scum. That 10% does not add to the 50/50 you're trying to assign - you're double dipping with assumptions to try to say it's 70/30 that we get a scum.

Reads are important, but remember 5 people (including yourself imo) are trying to lie/cheat/kill the town to win. Those 5 players are going to discredit any attempts by town to fix this situation. Getting Chaqa resolved removes a bullet from them they want to possibly use to get a win now.

I've told you numerous times why Chaqa needs to go now. Did you not read my posts? It's simple - a myslynch today could end the game. I believe the scum are playing for that chance right now.

[xorxes]

So to start, your math is fundamentally off because the 50% odds of getting darg/EP wrong operates under the assumption that one is town and one is scum. You have to start with that baseline assumption to get 50%

Why would you start with that assumption when we don't know that it is true?

So what are the odds they are both scum? The math is this: (5/14)*(4/13) = 10.98%

Why 14? There's only 11 unclears left (only 10 for me, and only 10 for you if you are town).

That being said, for someone who has said this to me...
...I think you just scum slipped in that wall.

Explain?

[worcej]

@Xorxes - my number one issue with what you're saying right now is 'stick with what we know and what we read' - which is exactly the problem with what I and bozo are trying to tell everyone.

Chaqa, even if telling the truth, is a huge liability if we get to lylo if he is town. If he loved the wrong person, we most likely lose in all scenarios. It just turns into a race with the scum team.

[EspressoPatronum]

Hey @worcej, I just want to say I appreciate the effort you're taking to keep a cool head now.

I'm liking your recent posts.

[bozotheclown]

I remember brain surviving quite often. Maybe the meta has changed?

Tbh I thought it would be silly. I didn’t think it through as much as I should have...

Why would you crumb your target D1? That only had the potential to help the mafia.

And then the Obvscum realizes his mistake.

Did you crumb your role Bozo?

No, I did not think to crumb VT, although in this setup that would have been a good idea D1 before the mafia had a chance to assign their fake claim roles.

##Vote Bozotheclown
The most anti Town player I've seen.

There is obviously a big difference between Chaqa crumbing his target, which he should never want to reveal, and crumbing a role D1.

If you do not want to lynch Chaqa, why are you not interesting in resolving the tracker claims?