Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bo_sox48]

Do you agree that by EP's logic, you should not be scumreading me if the mafia did not have anyone available to claim DP?

No, I agree with what xorxes said: "It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target."

I don't know how that is relevant.

You said that mafia had nobody available to claim DP, which is why there were tracker counterclaims instead of using an available role. Espresso clearly pointed out that I could have claimed DP without issue but did not. Ergo, if I were mafia, I would have been available, but I'm not mafia so I did not fake claim a role.

You should be following, but you're not.

[flash2015]

So it seems that some people scumread me at this crucial point in play:

- Bozotheclown - declared he scumreads me P.254 and votes for me.

- Flash - declared he scumreads me on P.256 but votes for Foodcoast.

- Bo_Sox - declares he scumreads me on P.257, has not voted yet.


On the other hand:

- EspressoPatronum - declares me a townread on P.256.

- Foodcoats - I guess he doesn't scumread me but that's not entirely clear. He's voting for EP.


Of the 5 unclears other than me (and I know I'm town), three have declared I'm scum. What I need to try to work out is, is this because:

a) They're misguided town, like Xorxes and Worcej were, or:
b) They're scum who regard me as the most likely mislynch...

If you really are town, can you take a crack at figuring out who you think the scum team? Or say which two you town read the most?

[flash2015]

Where are you Fox? What do you think?

[bozotheclown]

I am assuming that the mafia was given 6 fake claim options for the 5 of them. I don't see what the point of a missing role would otherwise be.

This assumption is not correct, it has been clarified that the scum had 5 fake roles available to them. That means the mafia could not tell which role was the extra role not assigned to town. Does this information change you opinion on the possibility the mafia counterclaimed tracker to avoid claiming one role, such as DP?

Could you point out this post to me?

My concrete and extremely viable case regarding two members of the scumteam claiming tracker initially had nothing to do with the possibility of an extra role, so if you mean to ask whether or not I'm all of a sudden going to change my mind, no. However, it renders one hardly supplementary post on the last page moot. I suppose I can give you that one.

Not offhand, I had this question and verified it for myself, I know it was discussed and verified by others as well.

[bozotheclown]

Do you agree that by EP's logic, you should not be scumreading me if the mafia did not have anyone available to claim DP?

No, I agree with what xorxes said: "It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target."

I don't know how that is relevant.

You said that mafia had nobody available to claim DP, which is why there were tracker counterclaims instead of using an available role. Espresso clearly pointed out that I could have claimed DP without issue but did not. Ergo, if I were mafia, I would have been available, but I'm not mafia so I did not fake claim a role.

You should be following, but you're not.

The point xorxes made was that it would look suspicious for you to claim DP after refusing to participate in the DP claiming, since the whole point was to hide the real DP scan in the fake claims. I find what Espresso said questionable, but I think it was just a mistake.

[bozotheclown]

Kind of like I am right now waiting anxiously to read your next totally and unnecessarily dismissive post

OK, you did not post at all N6, if you were mafia, would you have been available 20 minutes before EON to change the NK?

I was literally dangling by two knots on an old rope from 400 feet above a quartzite outcrop overlooking a lake in Wisconsin at EON, so no, I do not believe so. That may have had something to do with my lack of posts on N6 as well, since you pointed that out.

I do not doubt this is true, but you seemed to assume the 3 remaining scum had nothing better to do at EON than check for new posts so they could update their NK accordingly.

[bo_sox48]

No, I agree with what xorxes said: "It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target."

I don't know how that is relevant.

You said that mafia had nobody available to claim DP, which is why there were tracker counterclaims instead of using an available role. Espresso clearly pointed out that I could have claimed DP without issue but did not. Ergo, if I were mafia, I would have been available, but I'm not mafia so I did not fake claim a role.

You should be following, but you're not.

The point xorxes made was that it would look suspicious for you to claim DP after refusing to participate in the DP claiming, since the whole point was to hide the real DP scan in the fake claims. I find what Espresso said questionable, but I think it was just a mistake.

That's perfectly reasonable. You still shouldn't scumread me, but I don't have any more magical gotchas. Well done.

OK, you did not post at all N6, if you were mafia, would you have been available 20 minutes before EON to change the NK?

I was literally dangling by two knots on an old rope from 400 feet above a quartzite outcrop overlooking a lake in Wisconsin at EON, so no, I do not believe so. That may have had something to do with my lack of posts on N6 as well, since you pointed that out.

I do not doubt this is true, but you seemed to assume the 3 remaining scum had nothing better to do at EON than check for new posts so they could update their NK accordingly.

That's correct, and I do. That said, if there's a killer (no less than a 60% chance at this stage) it only takes one, and each of my two most confident scumreads have shown a propensity to being available around the deadline, particularly Jamie.

[EspressoPatronum]

Do you agree that by EP's logic, you should not be scumreading me if the mafia did not have anyone available to claim DP?

No, I agree with what xorxes said: "It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target."

I agree with this btw. I believe I express the change of opinion later on + say that not answering is anti-town if you're town!DP.

[bo_sox48]

I'm not DP, so whatever.

The lack of clears is bothering me.

[bo_sox48]

Probably won't be on much if at all tomorrow before EOD, so if you lynch me or someone who isn't EP/Jamie/foodcoats (or maaaaaaybe off chance bozo??) and lose... well, oops.

[bozotheclown]

Early D3, most players still had not given their response to Espresso's DP smokescreen:

@Vapor
@flash
@foodcoats
@bo_sox
@worcej
@Dargo

Do the town a possible favour and do your DP smokescreen.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
bozo (complete) [chaqa]
Vapor
foodcoats
flash
bo_sox
Jamie (complete) [Jamie]
worcej
dargorygel
damo (complete) [Bozo]

Later D3, Espresso tried to start a tracker smokescreen, and gave a N2 track result:

Hmm, all this tracker nonsense with Vapor sounds like we need..... A SMOKESCREEN REVEAL!

Town Tracker Smokescreen Reveal

I know it's tedious, but doing this could potentially help us out down the road. If you're ever in doubt, just remember worcej thinks smokescreens are useless... that should be enough to reasonably assume it could be useful.

I'll start us off again. FORMAT: tracker: [target] (visited)

EspressoPatronum: [xorxes] (none)
bozo:
Vapor: [ROLEBLOCKED]
foodcoats:
flash:
bo_sox:
Jamie:
worcej:
dargorygel:
damo:

This definitely looks like Espresso is either the tracker or was planning to claim tracker at some point as of D3. However, this was before the mafia would have been able to discuss the DP smokescreen results. If tracker was one of the scum fake roles, it is possible Espresso was preparing for the claim, but I doubt the mafia would go through the trouble of doing the DP smokescreen before the tracker smokescreen just to set up the tracker claim. Why would they need to? If tracker was a scum fake role, Espresso could claim as uncced tracker, and it is unlikely the mafia were already planning for two scum tracker claims as of N2, because claiming DP was still an option.

[bozotheclown]

I think the simplest explanation is that whichever scum was assigned the role DP made a mistake responding to Espresso's DP smokescreen, the other scum also gave responses that made claiming DP a problem, and on N3, realizing the problem, the mafia came up with the plan to have dargorygel counterclaim the tracker, as long as damo did not turn out to be the tracker, if a mass claim was initiated D4.

Final DP smokescreen results. Return to this if town!DP dies without a reveal.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
bozo (complete) [chaqa]
Vapor (complete) [foodcoats]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]
flash (complete) [bo_sox]
bo_sox (refused)
Jamie (complete) [Jamie]
worcej (refused)
dargorygel (complete) [Brain]
damo (complete) [Bozo]

Jamie was criticized for saying he would target himself, so he would not want to have to defend that if he claimed to be the DP. foodcoats claimed he would target damo, who would have been able to report his powers had been taken. dargorygel claimed he would scan brainbomb, who was already a town clear.
bo_sox said something about not wanting to DP anyone, which would have looked bad if he claimed DP, since he would have defeated the purpose of the smokescreen by not including the real DP target.

[bozotheclown]

If the mafia have the double vote, they have 4 votes to try to get a mislynch to win. Foxcastle and ItsHosuke, you need to make sure there is as large a wagon as possible on someone tomorrow.

[bozotheclown]

bo_sox scum reading foodcoats but not joining his wagon looks very bad, especially since he said he may not be back before EOD, because it could cost town the game if he was really town. For example, if bo_sox were town and he was correct that Espresso, Jamie, and foodcoats are scum, Espresso could move his vote to bo_sox at the last minute and the scum could use the double vote to get to 4 votes on bo_sox, while bo_sox is off his own counterwagon.

[Nephthys]

Vote Count

foodcoats (3) EspressoPatronum flash2015 bozotheclown
bo_sox48 (2) Jamiet99uk foodcoats
No‑Lynch (1) ItsHosuke
EspressoPatronum (1) bo_sox48

24 hrs remain

Food is set to become fish (are there any left?) food

[ItsHosuke]

##vote foodcoats

I think we need a wagon at this point

[ItsHosuke]

Placeholder as I think we’re at mylo?

If the mafia have the human (5/7 chance), it is lylo instead of mylo since they would be able to use the double vote to force a no lynch D8 at 4-3.

Crap, I forgot

[Jamiet99uk]

This came a full 20 minutes before EON. Why exactly do people think he died over Foxcastle or Hosuke? Is it because his reads were fucking spot on?

2/3 minimum. 3/3 maximum. Pay the man, easy game.

Maybe, or maybe the mafia were trying to lock in his reads so they could refer to this post to get a mislynch.

You're right, maybe. But which do you find more likely to happen in the last 20 minutes? Do you think that the mafia, which you imply includes me, came together and said "oh yeah xorxes is about to be clear and lead the town and he's not really in a position to nail us based on his reads BUT we can totally kill him anyway just to use his reads for shits and giggles" OR do you think they, or even just the killer, said "oh fuck he's onto us, we gotta kill him before he leads on us?"

There is too much wine in front of us to know the answer to this. Most likely they just wanted to be rid of a confident, intelligent town who was about to be clear.

[Jamiet99uk]

So it seems that some people scumread me at this crucial point in play:
<snip>

If you really are town, can you take a crack at figuring out who you think the scum team? Or say which two you town read the most?

My top townread among the unclears is Foodcoats. He really seems to be trying, especially this last few phases, and his posts are earnest. If he's scum he's doing a super job of hiding it whilst also participating a lot. I can't see much wrong with him.

That leaves Flash, Bo_Sox, Espresso, and Bozo.

I lean town on Espresso because I cannot see why scum would create a SvS double fakeclaim. It makes limited sense to have ONE fake counter-claim when they all have un-counter-able claims set up to use, but counter claiming each other? Two scum? I mean it's a super bold play but why take that risk??

I'm fairly sure Bo_Sox is scum, and by PoE, his team-mates are Flash and Bozo.

[foodcoats]

So no new reasons to scumread me other than that I scumread EP?

Anyone... read the game thread or anything?