webdiplomacy.net

Durga wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:26 am

Rhk being scum and visiting Squigs who is also visited by doc. Squigs being saved, observer has no idea if rhk is scum or not. Worthless situation, can be avoided by my scenario.

Oh no! That's awful! We just blocked the kill, and we have a simple CC between a guy who claimed Doc on the noose, and a guy who CCed the Doc the next day, under no pressure, rather than having mafia simply kill the Doc overnight.

I think your "worthless situation" is only worthless for one faction, and it's not mine.

@Damo,
@ghug,

How are you reading the game now? What have you learned?

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:22 am

I think that, if the observer watches Demon, either Demon will visit one and only one person (then he is Doctor), or he will visit zero or two persons (then he is scum).

The only way Demon visits one person, and is not Doctor, is that he performs the NK. In that case, we should know, or else we'll be in a Doc CC situation and we'll have a blocked NK.

Can anyone find a hole in this plan?

It works but Observer must reveal themselves so if RHK is doc both blown, if RHK Obs he must self reveal but I suppose that's fine. If RHK scum observer is revealed. There's all night yet. There may be a better plan.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:35 am

It works but Observer must reveal themselves so if RHK is doc both blown, if RHK Obs he must self reveal but I suppose that's fine. If RHK scum observer is revealed. There's all night yet. There may be a better plan.

No, if RHK is doctor, then Observer says nothing. If no PR comes forward tomorrow, and no PR dies tonight, we treat DemonRHK as confirmed town. Easy.

bozotheclown wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:05 am

If the observer visits DemonRHK, I believe these are the possibilities:
1. DemonRHK NKed: question answered
2. observer NKed: doctor CCs or DemonRHK confirmed as doctor
3. DemonRHK is observer: no report confirms DemonRHK as PR
4. observer sees DemonRHK make one visit: no report confirms DemonRHK as PR
5. observer sees DemonRHK make no visits: observer confirms DemonRHK is scum
6. observer sees DemonRHK make two visits: observer confirms DemonRHK is driver
7. observer sees someone other than DemonRHK get visited: observer confirms the identity of the driver

In example 4 suppose RHK performs NK

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:35 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:22 am

I think that, if the observer watches Demon, either Demon will visit one and only one person (then he is Doctor), or he will visit zero or two persons (then he is scum).

The only way Demon visits one person, and is not Doctor, is that he performs the NK. In that case, we should know, or else we'll be in a Doc CC situation and we'll have a blocked NK.

Can anyone find a hole in this plan?

It works but Observer must reveal themselves so if RHK is doc both blown, if RHK Obs he must self reveal but I suppose that's fine. If RHK scum observer is revealed. There's all night yet. There may be a better plan.

The observer only needs to report to confirm DemonRHK as scum. No report means DemonRHK is a PR, without revealing his role and without the other PR being revealed. See possibilities 3 and 4:

If the observer visits DemonRHK, I believe these are the possibilities:
1. DemonRHK NKed: question answered
2. observer NKed: doctor CCs or DemonRHK confirmed as doctor
3. DemonRHK is observer: no report confirms DemonRHK as PR
4. observer sees DemonRHK make one visit: no report confirms DemonRHK as PR
5. observer sees DemonRHK make no visits: observer confirms DemonRHK is scum
6. observer sees DemonRHK make two visits: observer confirms DemonRHK is driver
7. observer sees someone other than DemonRHK get visited: observer confirms the identity of the driver

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:37 am

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:35 am

It works but Observer must reveal themselves so if RHK is doc both blown, if RHK Obs he must self reveal but I suppose that's fine. If RHK scum observer is revealed. There's all night yet. There may be a better plan.

No, if RHK is doctor, then Observer says nothing. If no PR comes forward tomorrow, and no PR dies tonight, we treat DemonRHK as confirmed town. Easy.

Yeah. Think that's right. I'm getting a headache.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:40 am

bozotheclown wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:05 am

If the observer visits DemonRHK, I believe these are the possibilities:
1. DemonRHK NKed: question answered
2. observer NKed: doctor CCs or DemonRHK confirmed as doctor
3. DemonRHK is observer: no report confirms DemonRHK as PR
4. observer sees DemonRHK make one visit: no report confirms DemonRHK as PR
5. observer sees DemonRHK make no visits: observer confirms DemonRHK is scum
6. observer sees DemonRHK make two visits: observer confirms DemonRHK is driver
7. observer sees someone other than DemonRHK get visited: observer confirms the identity of the driver

In example 4 suppose RHK performs NK

The observer would know DemonRHK visited the NK and did not save him. If the doctor happened to save the NK, the doctor may have to claim, but at least there would be no NK.

Yes Bozo agreed.

Free WiFi on the plane for an hour.

I'm suspicious of RHK's claim, but I think it'll be sorted out. He needs to claim at EoN with specifics (who he's visiting). This should make it fairly easy to sort out. I don't think we should go with any plan that instructs the doc who to visit, because then the doc doesn't have any chance of saving. I likewise think planning to observe Squigs is dumb, because it similarly makes scum's job too easy. An observation of RHK seems like a good idea. To my mind, observer is much more powerful than doc, so if RHK claims doc and both PRs can confirm him as a liar, the doc should do it.

My reads don't evolve much with a town flip. I imagine if RHK was scum and the other two were town, we'd probably see one or two of his teammates on his preclaim wagon. If he's scum and flash is as well, Balki looks bad, and I imagine we'd again be seeing some bussing. If he's actually a PR, we're off to an impressively bad start even with the Ezio flip.

Balki, why'd you switch to Ike over flash?

Well, finished reading.
I don't believe Demon claim. It's a generic claim on the last minute. The kind of claim scum have already prepared. I don't remember my town doing a generic real claim before.

I am not sure about Balki's plan. Is is worth trading the Observer for a scum? I guess only if Observer have info enough to help us solve the game.

I need to re-read a lot of people. Balki and Durga interaction is weird, doesn't seems natural, looks like he is intentionally trying to upset her. What for?

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:32 am

@Damo,
@ghug,

How are you reading the game now? What have you learned?

a) That we will know RHK's alignment tomorrow.
b) There is a 6/7 chance of it being 8-4 tomorrow.
c) I have to rethink my townclears.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:02 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:32 am

@Damo,
@ghug,

How are you reading the game now? What have you learned?

a) That we will know RHK's alignment tomorrow.
b) There is a 6/7 chance of it being 8-4 tomorrow.
c) I have to rethink my townclears.

Fuck, we only have one more mislynch.

Omfg

No wonder Balki is so excited.

ghug wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:55 am

If he's scum and flash is as well, Balki looks bad, and I imagine we'd again be seeing some bussing. If he's actually a PR, we're off to an impressively bad start even with the Ezio flip.

Balki, why'd you switch to Ike over flash?

@ghug, you think I could possibly be on a scumteam with DemonRHK? Please explain that logic for us.

From my point of view, the only way you survive, after DemonRHK flips scum, is if you can convince people that I am scum. So I’m not surprised that you are laying that foundation now. But it is impossible to believe and only Scum Ghug tries to spin that yarn. You’re sunk.

Why did I swap to Ike? Because ghug was trying to get us all to vote Flash all day, and I believe ghug is on the scum team with DemonRHK.

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:23 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:55 am

If he's scum and flash is as well, Balki looks bad, and I imagine we'd again be seeing some bussing. If he's actually a PR, we're off to an impressively bad start even with the Ezio flip.

Balki, why'd you switch to Ike over flash?

@ghug, you think I could possibly be on a scumteam with DemonRHK? Please explain that logic for us.

From my point of view, the only way you survive, after DemonRHK flips scum, is if you can convince people that I am scum. So I’m not surprised that you are laying that foundation now. But it is impossible to believe and only Scum Ghug tries to spin that yarn. You’re sunk.

Why did I swap to Ike? Because ghug was trying to get us all to vote Flash all day, and I believe ghug is on the scum team with DemonRHK.

I consider you entirely capable of bussing, yes.

I'm not sure why you're so convinced I'm linked to him.

ghug wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:51 am

I consider you entirely capable of bussing, yes.

I'm not sure why you're so convinced I'm linked to him.

Well that doesn’t answer the question, does it?

If I were scum with DemonRHK on Day 4, how can you possibly explain my actions? I was widely town read. DemonRHK was not under serious pressure without my push. All I have to do is say “yeah, Ike looks scummy,” and he dies and me and my scummate DemonRHK to laugh about it in the QT.

The question is not “Is Balki capable of bussing?” The question is: based on what we’ve seen, is there anyway Scum Balki is on a team with Scum DemonRHK? There is no way Town ghug answers that question “Yes.”

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:59 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:51 am

I consider you entirely capable of bussing, yes.

I'm not sure why you're so convinced I'm linked to him.

Well that doesn’t answer the question, does it?

If I were scum with DemonRHK on Day 4, how can you possibly explain my actions? I was widely town read. DemonRHK was not under serious pressure without my push. All I have to do is say “yeah, Ike looks scummy,” and he dies and me and my scummate DemonRHK to laugh about it in the QT.

The question is not “Is Balki capable of bussing?” The question is: based on what we’ve seen, is there anyway Scum Balki is on a team with Scum DemonRHK? There is no way Town ghug answers that question “Yes.”

I've been townreading you for days. Chill. I think if both flash and RHK are scum, there is a reason you would have made the RHK push today: doubling down on your bus and saving a more valuable teammate. If flash isn't scum and RHK is, yeah, you look pretty good, though I still think you're entirely capable of bussing in that situation too.

Durga wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:26 am

Rhk being scum and visiting Squigs who is also visited by doc. Squigs being saved, observer has no idea if rhk is scum or not. Worthless situation, can be avoided by my scenario.

But honestly, do what you want PR's - just be wary of listening to Balki

Blocking a NK is a worthless situation?
Observer should definitely visit me.
RHK should claim his role just before EoN.