Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[ghug]

Mathematically speaking no, we don't have that luxury, but if the driver is both laying low and one of the experienced players guiding the scumteam, I still want to go for him. If flash is scum, and I think he is, he sure as hell isn't a valuable asset to this team other than the fact that he is still taking up our time.

We have one more mislynch. No. It's never even been my experience that scum play that differently based on their scum roles.


Squiggles, why do you assume Dr is town?

[damo666]

Remaining players:

bozotheclown
bo_sox48
damo666
DemonRHK
DrCJG
Durga
ghug
flash2015
ND
rdrivera2005
Squigs44
worcej

We know I'm town. And RHK is at this point considered town.
I'll assume Durga, Dr, and Worcej are town.

This leaves Bozo, Bo, damo, ghug, flash, ND, Rdrivera.

Ghug has pushed flash, protected damo.
ND has pushed damo.
No other actions between these players has been super strong.

We should lynch damo, ghug, or ND today I think.

I agree with Dr & worcej but why are you assuming Durga (notwithstanding I wrote 'Durga is town' a few posts ago!)?

I am currently midway through a complete reread with the benefit of knowing several alignments. Thus far from your others list I'm fairly strong town on ghug and biggest scum on Flash. I will leave my vote on rdrivera until I have completed the reread however.

[ND]

Cool, Damo is setting up his bus vote on Flash (right there -above-)

Good setup Damo.

[damo666]

I'm here. I just spent an hour catching up. Again, the push on Ike was another really bad wagon. I believe DemonRHK's claim 100%. Them killing Balki is pretty surprising. Considering, how I have believed since D1 basically that Damo was saved. If we keep this in mind and couple it with what happened D2 this is what we got: "So voters that voted for thd and also Peter: ghug, DrCJG, damo666, DemonRHK, Balki, Flash. (from me a couple days ago)"

Right now, DemonRHK (town very sure), Balki (dead town).

This now leaves DrCJG, Damo666, Flash, and Ghug from that data range. Our pool of six d1 and d2 voters who voted and pushed those two initial wagons is now down to four. That's a pretty big deal.

Flash's post after phase end (last day phase) was so inorganic. No way he was getting lynched and he knew it. That's him trying to set himself up to be townread. I Don't buy it. Inorganic like his other play.

Damo was still probably saved D1 and is most likely scum. Remarkable he is still alive and hasn't been lynched.

Ghug making it late game is kind of surprising. But, I don't think ghug is scum -at this time-.

Doubt DrCJG is scum now.

Lynch in damo, flash = win or at least prolong this they are the obvious candidates.

I was busy the past few days. RL stuff. It happens. I'm also pretty unengaged at this point. It was a chore catching up. Every single push I have made or argument I have made falls on deaf ears. Instead, there are just these characteristically bizarre late day wagons that spring up and 'oh no' it just so happens these people keep getting railroaded who are obv town. Yeah, totally normal /sarcasm.

So I'll ##vote Flash

or Damo potentially, but I think we are going to lose this. I've identified two low hanging obv scum. The other two are out there and they are most likely better than me and considering how I am so useless in this I don't think we have a prayer guys. Sorry, to be the pessimist here, but if we can't come together to lynch one of two people that the data supports being scum and who have played a clearly obvious scum game then we don't have much of a chance. That's just the truth.

Still, I'll play to my wincon and try, but that's what I think about the game.

I completely understand your reasoning here and give you towncredit for it. I would just like to point out that in your gang of four I was the only one in a competing wagon. The fact that I ended up on the lead wagon when I was in grave danger is hardly surprising is it? I would say it's is NAI.

[ghug]

I'm here. I just spent an hour catching up. Again, the push on Ike was another really bad wagon. I believe DemonRHK's claim 100%. Them killing Balki is pretty surprising. Considering, how I have believed since D1 basically that Damo was saved. If we keep this in mind and couple it with what happened D2 this is what we got: "So voters that voted for thd and also Peter: ghug, DrCJG, damo666, DemonRHK, Balki, Flash. (from me a couple days ago)"

Right now, DemonRHK (town very sure), Balki (dead town).

This now leaves DrCJG, Damo666, Flash, and Ghug from that data range. Our pool of six d1 and d2 voters who voted and pushed those two initial wagons is now down to four. That's a pretty big deal.

Flash's post after phase end (last day phase) was so inorganic. No way he was getting lynched and he knew it. That's him trying to set himself up to be townread. I Don't buy it. Inorganic like his other play.

Damo was still probably saved D1 and is most likely scum. Remarkable he is still alive and hasn't been lynched.

Ghug making it late game is kind of surprising. But, I don't think ghug is scum -at this time-.

Doubt DrCJG is scum now.

Lynch in damo, flash = win or at least prolong this they are the obvious candidates.

I was busy the past few days. RL stuff. It happens. I'm also pretty unengaged at this point. It was a chore catching up. Every single push I have made or argument I have made falls on deaf ears. Instead, there are just these characteristically bizarre late day wagons that spring up and 'oh no' it just so happens these people keep getting railroaded who are obv town. Yeah, totally normal /sarcasm.

So I'll ##vote Flash

or Damo potentially, but I think we are going to lose this. I've identified two low hanging obv scum. The other two are out there and they are most likely better than me and considering how I am so useless in this I don't think we have a prayer guys. Sorry, to be the pessimist here, but if we can't come together to lynch one of two people that the data supports being scum and who have played a clearly obvious scum game then we don't have much of a chance. That's just the truth.

Still, I'll play to my wincon and try, but that's what I think about the game.

I completely understand your reasoning here and give you towncredit for it. I would just like to point out that in your gang of four I was the only one in a competing wagon. The fact that I ended up on the lead wagon when I was in grave danger is hardly surprising is it? I would say it's is NAI.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say here.

[damo666]

That I had to save myself so ending up on the top wagon both days could be expected. I am just pointing out that ND is reading more into it than is the case.

[Durga]

I think that last post from ND reinforces my town read of him. I'm starting to come around on damo. But that would mean I need to start looking at bozo/drCj/worcej, and I'm wondering if ghug-Bo scum team + flash + one of the 3. I think I'd be shocked if at least one of ghug-Bo isn't scum. I think we can figure that out next day though.

[Durga]

There I go forgetting about rdr again. What a horrible sign.

[damo666]

Flash + 3 from bo/bozo/rdr/deepscum

[Squigs44]

Let's lynch a lurker ##vote rdrivera

[Durga]

Let's lynch a lurker ##vote rdrivera

Make a case for me on why you don't want to lynch flash.

[ND]

Ok, well if DemonRHK is to be believed which i am of the opinion that he should be, then we know that the scum team wasn't trying to save DemonRHK D1 and to a lesser extent D2. He was a wagon both days. That leaves you, @Damo.

There are two explanations here:

The first explanation is that I am dead wrong and I have been chasing smoke the whole game. Damo is town and I am just wrong. If he is town then all of the D1-D2 primary, secondary, and tertiary EOD wagons are town -if DemonRHK is to be believed-. This means that there is no inherent 'inorganic' problem in the late day wagons. There was no scum manipulation. Why manipulate when there was no reason to do so? None of their people were threatened. It didn't matter who died. Thus, the scum have a totally normal vote spread or maybe a slight concentration somewhere.

I don't think that this explanation makes sense.

1. There was a bloc of players that were instrumental both days in getting both those primary wagons lynched. I have highlighted this several times now.
2. There was a player @Damo who was under threat both days and wagons did come late that were successful in overtaking his wagon and those players (Peter/Thd) got lynched.
3. There are anomalies in the wagons themselves. How does Flash who just enters the game late D1 just so happen to read 20+ pages and drop his vote at EOD on the late wagon that forms to overtake Damo. That is the essence of manipulation.


I don't think I am wrong. I think the evidence both factual, data driven, and circumstantial supports the idea that there was something wrong with both D1 and D2. I believe that those wagons were scum influenced. If I am right then it boils down to why would they influence the wagon, late, to push for Thd/Peter? Because someone else was in jeopardy. If DemonRHK isn't scum and he is claiming a PR role then the only other person that could have been in jeopardy D1 and D2 is Damo. There was no one else. There would be no reason to influence the wagons if Damo is town. If he is town why would they care to concentrate their votes or jump on or start a late day wagon? They wouldn't care. Period. Full stop. They wouldn't care who died out of the three wagons if every one of the major wagons was town.

Like, if there is another explanation that I am missing then someone point it out, but I just don't see it. It's one or the other. If I am right then I have caught Damo and Flash, but the problem is that like no one cares. People are more concerned with pursuing bizarre scumreads or railroading someone like Ike.

Damo and Flash need to be lynched immediately. Either one. Both need to go.

[Squigs44]

Ok, well if DemonRHK is to be believed which i am of the opinion that he should be, then we know that the scum team wasn't trying to save DemonRHK D1 and to a lesser extent D2. He was a wagon both days. That leaves you, @Damo.

There are two explanations here:

The first explanation is that I am dead wrong and I have been chasing smoke the whole game. Damo is town and I am just wrong. If he is town then all of the D1-D2 primary, secondary, and tertiary EOD wagons are town -if DemonRHK is to be believed-. This means that there is no inherent 'inorganic' problem in the late day wagons. There was no scum manipulation. Why manipulate when there was no reason to do so? None of their people were threatened. It didn't matter who died. Thus, the scum have a totally normal vote spread or maybe a slight concentration somewhere.

I don't think that this explanation makes sense.

1. There was a bloc of players that were instrumental both days in getting both those primary wagons lynched. I have highlighted this several times now.
2. There was a player @Damo who was under threat both days and wagons did come late that were successful in overtaking his wagon and those players (Peter/Thd) got lynched.
3. There are anomalies in the wagons themselves. How does Flash who just enters the game late D1 just so happen to read 20+ pages and drop his vote at EOD on the late wagon that forms to overtake Damo. That is the essence of manipulation.


I don't think I am wrong. I think the evidence both factual, data driven, and circumstantial supports the idea that there was something wrong with both D1 and D2. I believe that those wagons were scum influenced. If I am right then it boils down to why would they influence the wagon, late, to push for Thd/Peter? Because someone else was in jeopardy. If DemonRHK isn't scum and he is claiming a PR role then the only other person that could have been in jeopardy D1 and D2 is Damo. There was no one else. There would be no reason to influence the wagons if Damo is town. If he is town why would they care to concentrate their votes or jump on or start a late day wagon? They wouldn't care. Period. Full stop. They wouldn't care who died out of the three wagons if every one of the major wagons was town.

Like, if there is another explanation that I am missing then someone point it out, but I just don't see it. It's one or the other. If I am right then I have caught Damo and Flash, but the problem is that like no one cares. People are more concerned with pursuing bizarre scumreads or railroading someone like Ike.

Damo and Flash need to be lynched immediately. Either one. Both need to go.

I like this case except one thing. It seemed focused on damo the whole time but in the conclusion you say either damo or flash needs to go. Where did flash become equally scummy with damo? It seems the only tie in with flash is his late vote on the opposing wagons.

[ND]

1. Flash is part of the bloc that voters for thd/Peter both days
2. Flash mysteriously lands his vote on thd D1 after he subs in very late in the phase. He reads the entire game and then happens to vote the late day wagon that forms in contrast to Damo. That is circumstantial evidence for scum manipulation on the vote and I think the most obvious case of it that we have.
3. He votes Peter late in the day, D2, his vote is important in putting Peter over the top and getting Peter lynched over Damo. Out of the bloc of voters who vote thd and peter he is the most suspicious. His vote on Peter according to the bot was in the last minute. The wagon D2 was extremely close. His vote is important for making sure that Peter is lynched over Damo.
4. I had a solid read on Jamie. I felt Jamie out early D1 and he exhibited some of the signs that I look for when I feel Jamie out to see if he is scum. This is meta and lesser point to points 1-3. Similar to point 5.
5. Flash has played a much different game then the games I have played with him in the past. This change of meta reinforces my read on him.

Granted Flash is very linked to Damo and arguably the most important player in keeping damo alive. That's why I am willing to vote either. In my mind they are both extremely likely to flip scum. Damo for the reasons I have articulated and Flash for being Damo's saving grace both days and because of his inorganic votes + Jamie's play.

Thus I am willing to vote either.

[rdrivera2005]

There I go forgetting about rdr again. What a horrible sign.

I feel ashamed you forget me, but can't do much about it. I can give a lie of RL reasons, but it will be just excuses. Hope to have more time this week to play, but not sure if this will be enough.

Have you read ND post? My thinking was along the same line, with the exception I was scumreading Demon instead of Damo.
Do you believe all wagons in D1 and D2 are town? It just seems off to me.
I was buying Balki theory of scum Demon and Ghug, but with Demon being town I hardly see Ghug as scum. I feel like I am running in circles here.

[Durga]

Also town rdr scum reads me or chastises me at some point for being stupid - right?

[bo_sox48]

Ok I'm not voting ND today, if he's scum congrats scumteam you probably won

[bo_sox48]

Mathematically speaking no, we don't have that luxury, but if the driver is both laying low and one of the experienced players guiding the scumteam, I still want to go for him. If flash is scum, and I think he is, he sure as hell isn't a valuable asset to this team other than the fact that he is still taking up our time.

We have one more mislynch. No. It's never even been my experience that scum play that differently based on their scum roles.

Really? You've never seen the scumteam pick and choose their deep threat based on who rolled what or for a goon to stick his neck out for a scum PR? I definitely have. It may not be happening here, but completely dismissing it here is reckless.

[ND]

The tracker doesn't have me voting? ##vote flash

[bo_sox48]

Doesn't look like the bot is updating. I guess we're going old school.