M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[Chaqa]

@worc I think I figured out the answer to the question we had in pre-game.

[brainbomb]

So who has figured out my partner by now

This is scummy, stop pairhunting.

uhm, what. lol. are you a complete idiot?

[brainbomb]

sorry but how am I pair hunting my own fucking partner dude. please read the game and practice a bare minimum level of intellect

[ghug]

ghug I would appreciate any feedback you have on HamiltonBrians "race to the cure" readslists which seem to progress the game for him in very scummy ways. Any thoughts on even a single one of those read progressions.

like for example going from saying vecna is doing a great job catching up when vecna is townreading RHK

to then saying Vecna is a null-scumlean who is shading bb and jamie?

and reading vecnas posts do you think he is "shading" me and Jamie?

That's a little too much conditional relationship for me to have internalized a lot of it on first read, but in general I think Brian is unlikely to subtly push an agenda and plenty likely to read posts in a way that others aren't, so neither of the things you're accusing him of worry me that much.

[brainbomb]

ghug I would appreciate any feedback you have on HamiltonBrians "race to the cure" readslists which seem to progress the game for him in very scummy ways. Any thoughts on even a single one of those read progressions.

like for example going from saying vecna is doing a great job catching up when vecna is townreading RHK

to then saying Vecna is a null-scumlean who is shading bb and jamie?

and reading vecnas posts do you think he is "shading" me and Jamie?

That's a little too much conditional relationship for me to have internalized a lot of it on first read, but in general I think Brian is unlikely to subtly push an agenda and plenty likely to read posts in a way that others aren't, so neither of the things you're accusing him of worry me that much.

what if I had verification that he does reads lists like this as mafia, and has done it before, and has pushed agendas in this way before based on what townies are doing and then forming his reads this way to look engaged

[brainbomb]

sorry for snapping damo. please refrain from making horrible, totally absurdly bad statements.

[brainbomb]

does chaqa get mad when he gets sussed as scum. or does he just retreat

[aarodactyl]

sorry for snapping damo. please refrain from making horrible, totally absurdly bad statements.

I think both of you are fairly NAI for your statements (in case you’re curious what it looks like from a third party). I don’t think their statement was absurdly bad though. If I responded to you and said “I think your partner is Eden”, that helps you narrow down my partner.

[aarodactyl]

does chaqa get mad when he gets sussed as scum. or does he just retreat

I’ve called chaqa dumb for non-mafia related things, and he’s reacted the same way (and it would have been nicer if I had remembered this before I did it again). The time I’ve played with scum chaqa he lurked the entire game. But that was years ago.

[ghug]

ghug I would appreciate any feedback you have on HamiltonBrians "race to the cure" readslists which seem to progress the game for him in very scummy ways. Any thoughts on even a single one of those read progressions.

like for example going from saying vecna is doing a great job catching up when vecna is townreading RHK

to then saying Vecna is a null-scumlean who is shading bb and jamie?

and reading vecnas posts do you think he is "shading" me and Jamie?

That's a little too much conditional relationship for me to have internalized a lot of it on first read, but in general I think Brian is unlikely to subtly push an agenda and plenty likely to read posts in a way that others aren't, so neither of the things you're accusing him of worry me that much.

what if I had verification that he does reads lists like this as mafia, and has done it before, and has pushed agendas in this way before based on what townies are doing and then forming his reads this way to look engaged

I'd need you to also prove he doesn't do it as town.

[Kakarroto]

We haven't D1ed Chaqa in a while...

don't, I need more +1's!

[brainbomb]

ghug why do you always dismiss cases rooted in evidence. are you just totally against the case style of play where you present facts about a post or series of posts and explain why those posts are scummy. you seem to just ignore things like that and always just hipfire everything you do.

What problem do you have with actual investiagtion

[brainbomb]

all the meta, and historical detailing I would have to do to nail this case to a wall will take me easily three hours.

And I need to know that this isnt just bullshit busy work, that you will really read it. really buy it. really consider it.

and this goes for all. I am not gonna do busy work just to do busy work. I beleive regardless of meta that hamilton is mafia for how he did his reads list.

if you want proof. I will proceed with finding meta to also verify that this is a slam dunk

[rdrivera2005]

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.

Why people keep discussing Math?

[rdrivera2005]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.

I have a simpler way to think about it. 3/11 town are currently paired with mafia. If you are town, you fit into that category and so those are your odds.

You just said two messages ago to stop with Math....

[Kakarroto]

At any time a person can see who is in the server. we all had the ability to monitor who was actually in it or not all through the process from joining. did someone see someone still not joined as of X time? is someone claiming someone in their chat showed up late? is someone claiming their partner never talked?

if none of these things are happening these are theories that are not rooted in reality and its time to move on. I know thats funny as shit coming from me but havent we wasted enough goddamn time on this crap?

look at the wagons. for christs sakes start playing the game people.

I think I was the first player joining the discord (while only eden as gm and bona as spectator was there). Regarding the bolded text, I saw a handful people not being joined (made two posts in the sign up thread to remind), shortly before midnight my time I layed down for a nap because currently my flat is HOT and I can't open my windows (thats why I tried to keep cool today with swimming after work and a LOT of ice) and at the time there were about a handful, I think 3 or 4(?) not in the discord, but when I checked again later around 2 am my time (or 2:15, so around an hour after start) everyone was in the discord, so I don't know what happened in that timeframe, but if it's important, it happened between that time.
maybe I have further info about that but that is something for a later time - don't ask me about it
So I think it's probably irrelevant and not rooted in reality, right?

[brainbomb]

I was mafia with him in this game.

Let me repeat that
I
Was
Mafia
With
Him
In
This Game

Now, digest this.

Here is Hamiltons first reads list from THAT game.

And, as a matter of a starting point in letting you all know where I stand, there is this:
Reads as of D2. Definitely fluid and not ossified.
Tier 1 (would definitely not kill): President Eden, Jamie, myself
Tier 2 (would need a very convincing case to kill): aaro, worcej/durga, RDR
Tier 3 (ambivalent, could kill, could keep alive): bona, bozo, brain, celaph, damo, flum, emc, ghug, HR,
Tier 4 (remove them already): bunny, chaqa, donny, vecna

President Eden and Jamie: both fervent, big writing with explicit details, hammering for information. Emotion.

Aaro: questioning, exploring the conflict between others’ reads and their own feelings (see ghug). Post on page 128 is well thought-out. Really could see them up to tier 1.

Worcej: I think I was town-reading Durga; no, I definitely was. Her bailing out isn’t scum-indicative. She cut ties with our Webdip World team. However, Worcej gets the benefit of the doubt to at least get through another day or two. Sorry to hear about the Covid. That sucks. Rest up, heal up.

RDR: self-admittedly never a big “pusher” and that’s true here. I feel like RDR’s game really is to watch, draw their own conclusions, then press forward in that manner. Same is happening here. Challenging assumptions. Not a scum vibe from them and if I’m wrong, then I really have no business in this game. Jamie's suggestion in the post about HR voting has me second-guessing myself. Worth digging into.

Bona: need to dig more into the hate they are getting. Close to me in terms of post volume, so that isn’t scum indicative. Not getting depth in the posts though, so somewhat forgettable. This position might be changing.

Bozo: drives me crazy; pulled the coloured font business. Usually comes in with a big analytical reason for a decision, or to refute town’s decisions. Not seeing it thus far, but I think they’re a mid-game person. So, still waiting.

Celaph: questioning, commenting, good post on page 123. But…

Damo: feels different this game, can’t put my finger on it. Strong conviction (?) that D1 subs are scum.

Flum: nothing. Not a lot of digging from what I can read.

EMC: nothing. Daddy posts. Seems disinterested.

Ghug: Not sure what I am reading from them. Need to go back to some D2 posts that caught my eye, but right now, very null.

HR: Their D2 seems unremarkable, but I am interested in their Bona take. After some questioning, might shift HR up to 2 or down to 4.


Donny: standout is the D1 VCA moving to Maniac like they did. Getting a lot of asking for others’ reads instead of doing the work themselves. Not really putting themselves out there, which could be scum or PR play.

Chaqa: they should probably be in tier 3 but what stands out to me is naming players as scum without offering an explanation, not asking them questions. Opportunistic. Wondering why they remained on a vanity wagon. That looks suspicious.

Bunny: heavy-hitting day 1 with confrontational posts then disappearing into life. I get it. But the immediate shift in tone seems off to me; are they thinking, “I keep pushing like this I’m going to draw suspicion? Disappear then tone it down, rabbit.” We’ll see how the remainder of D2 goes.

Vecna: Bunny Go is locked in my basement. Usually strong and thoughtful play. This isn’t it.


His second reads list from THAT game.

Alright, most of you that have played with me know I am crap with my reads.

Some shifts from my original list.

Town
Aaro
Pres eden
Jamie
Chaqa
celaph

Null
Damo
Bona
bozo
Hr
Rdr
Bunny

Scum
Donny
Worcej
Emc
Flum


Good luck, and hopefully be with you tomorrow.

In that game his scum teammates were brainbomb, Jamiet99uk, Bozotheclown, and ghug.

So where did he put his scum buddies. he didnt bus or put any scum partners in his second reads list. he chose to list his scum partners in the following ways.

Bozo: drives me crazy; pulled the coloured font business. Usually comes in with a big analytical reason for a decision, or to refute town’s decisions. Not seeing it thus far, but I think they’re a mid-game person. So, still waiting.

President Eden and Jamie: both fervent, big writing with explicit details, hammering for information. Emotion.

He likes to lump a scum in with a town and make them seem identical.

See example in current game of stances he takes on ezio,damo,vecna, jamie for a similar example of this.

put scum partner ghug as a null there, and then didnt even do a read on me. which again is why I think he omits 1 scum from his reads when he does these, just like hes doing with RHK for example in current game.


As a 3p role werewolf in M66
here is how he plays reads without a team.

My reads, such as they are:

Bona: town
Celaph: scum. Listening to brain, have to run with it.
Chaqa: null
Damo: null
Darg: scum. I think we’ve been scammed. Will abide with the ghug logic here and wait for a claim.
Foodcoats: town
Ghug: thought town
Jamie: scum Not playing or exhibiting themselves in a “typical” way
Kakarroto: town
Kgray: null but scumread by Flum, Vecna,
Macca: town
Maniac: town
Rivera: probably town
Yav: probably town; not holding back challenges with others. Will go back to rephrase and clarify instead of shutting arguments down.

Alot less wordly, alot less convoluted. Everything is town or probably town, none of this, null half mast scumlean chicken foot stuff.


As town, top poster in M67

My reads, such as they are:
HR: strong null; disengaged? Historically a low volume poster on D1s?

President Eden: weird ass entry post where they vote Chaqa; no strong indication either way.

ifischl: somewhat town? Kind of challenges some of the thinking of perplexed, so that's somewhat positive. Really trying to get them involved, but then they've kind of dropped off.

Chaqa: maybe low-volume scum hiding? A few posts on labour economics and then pfffft. But then, chaqa does this.

Gimix: I'd probably agree with Damo...newbtown, but there are some things that give me pause, as I suggested to foodcoats earlier.

Celaph: in with the early reads, considers perplex as hedging but not scum, thinks Macca is town. Then commentary on my "off-topic-ness" No strong vibe but I'd pay attention to them.

Vecna: the eff is up with the parrot. How is that helping town? But since it's drawing a reaction, I don't think scum would want that so...town?

Damo: mmmm, really don't know. Was there signaling going on? Would it be that blatant if it were?

foodcoats: null; still getting used to their style

Rivera: more early posts than I recall, but then again this has been a very low volume game so far. Is it a change to their general presence? Maybe, but I wouldn't expect mafia to make a concerted change that would be noticeable.

Macca: had a dandy of a game in 66. Still null, but the declaration to gimix not to self-vote is promising as town.

Perplexity: scrambling a bit; latching on to others' reads as if trying to get some stable footing. I'd lean town for right now.

Demon: Seemed to be trying to inject some life and thought into the D1; not sure they'll sustain that, but I'd lean town right now.

ghug: they are what they are; ghug knows how to engage and make it seem like they're town. I'm not wholly convinced because they are pretty good at illusion.

worcej: How does worcej present differently than last game. I mistakenly scumread them (was I lead by the nose by kgray?) Right now I like their game. Asking a variety of questions; jury is out on whether or not they are good questions. I think I'd lean town. I liked this post: http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 99#p240599

uses terms like strong null, town lean, and town far more often here than he does in this current game. And the explanations are less dodgy, less convoluted.

[rdrivera2005]

ghug I would appreciate any feedback you have on HamiltonBrians "race to the cure" readslists which seem to progress the game for him in very scummy ways. Any thoughts on even a single one of those read progressions.

like for example going from saying vecna is doing a great job catching up when vecna is townreading RHK

to then saying Vecna is a null-scumlean who is shading bb and jamie?

and reading vecnas posts do you think he is "shading" me and Jamie?

That's a little too much conditional relationship for me to have internalized a lot of it on first read, but in general I think Brian is unlikely to subtly push an agenda and plenty likely to read posts in a way that others aren't, so neither of the things you're accusing him of worry me that much.

what if I had verification that he does reads lists like this as mafia, and has done it before, and has pushed agendas in this way before based on what townies are doing and then forming his reads this way to look engaged

I didn't look HB old games but I also didn't like his readlist now that I actually read it (skipped it before). Seems too much effort with too little content.

[Kakarroto]

Good night fellow townies and some evil rebels.

Why we are at 10 pages in 2 hours? I already told my chat partner that I will try to play interacting more and less catching up so I might skip some pages....

yay rdrivera is in this game

boooo, he rolled scum

this reminds me of a post I made when I was mafia and tried to get rd

question is, is vecna similar to me?

[brainbomb]

okay now my brain is exhausted so, just, I dunno do whatever you people want now. go kill ghug or whatever.