webdiplomacy.net

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:00 pm

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:00 pm

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

sweetandcool wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:03 pm

*sigh* Apparently I just can't read this game. Maybe I should just get voted out to put me out of my misery.

brainbomb wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:05 pm

sweetandcool wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:03 pm

*sigh* Apparently I just can't read this game. Maybe I should just get voted out to put me out of my misery.

This is the type of self loathing whiney stuff ghug usually policy votes for because he cant stand stuff like this.

or maybe that durga im thinking of.

its hard to keep track of durga and ghug's meta sometimes. they tend to almost seem...in l-

okay im jk ghug.

whats your opinion on my RHK-Hamilton connections

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:06 pm

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:06 pm

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:44 pm

Kakarroto wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 19, 2023 11:01 pm

"Jo mai," he began to say "I bin wiaglich so froa dos I hia bin." smiling and waved to the crowd. "Daham in Wean san de Leit ned hoibald so laud, wissans? I bin so froa des I sea olle glott umoaman ded." He waved another time towards the crowd while smiling. "Owa des ded mai liabe Sissi ned zualossn, wissns, sie is a goanz liabe. I wissad ned, wos I ohne se dadat."

After a short period where translations happened, the host began again to speak. "Of course, I'm sure everyone here welcomes you with open arms, since everyone will love to watch you dance here to the music. But I've asked myself; why would someone from Vienna come here and be part of this whole journey?" He smiled and waved towards the crowd again as he answered. "Jo, des is gonz afoch: des hia is a wundavois Schiffal und I kon ma nix bessas vuistöhn ois bei da eastn foat dabeizusei. I hob scho imma de majestätischn Schiffal vo Ihra Majestät gean ghobt, vo dem hea is es ka Wunda, dos I hia bin und mitfoa. Oiso, I hoff ea wiad no gonz long lebn."

What fucking language is this gibberish written in?

It looks like German but it is not proper German at all.

Ezio wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:04 pm

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:00 pm

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

There's a significant reason for it: people can't waste time talking about the setup and viability of claiming vs not anymore.

sweetandcool wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:06 pm

brainbomb wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:05 pm

sweetandcool wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:03 pm

*sigh* Apparently I just can't read this game. Maybe I should just get voted out to put me out of my misery.

This is the type of self loathing whiney stuff ghug usually policy votes for because he cant stand stuff like this.

or maybe that durga im thinking of.

its hard to keep track of durga and ghug's meta sometimes. they tend to almost seem...in l-

okay im jk ghug.

whats your opinion on my RHK-Hamilton connections

You are asking for my opinion?

I kind of agree with the whiney stuff being annoying, but I'm allowing myself this one indulgence.

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:07 pm

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:06 pm

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

Do you even know how condescending you come off

brainbomb wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:10 pm

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:10 pm

brainbomb wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:10 pm

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

I think people that pushed claiming likely contain at least one scum.

brainbomb wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:13 pm

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:10 pm

brainbomb wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:10 pm

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

I think people that pushed claiming likely contain at least one scum.

okay so you scumlean ezio for claiming?

Kakarroto wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:04 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 20, 2023 12:12 pm

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:09 pm

Ezio wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:04 pm

aarodactyl wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:00 pm

Holy cow. I close mafia to do work for a couple of hours and several people partner claWimed??

I’m incredibly disappointed in all of you. Even if you don’t trust me enough to hold off on mass claiming for a couple of days, no one has provided a good explanation of why doing so on D1 is any good. All these POE discussions are meaningless until we have flips.

There's a significant reason for it: people can't waste time talking about the setup and viability of claiming vs not anymore.

That’s a bad reason. Not claiming costs nothing and if we stop taking about it until someone has an actual good reason to claim, it doesn’t take up space.

This game is going to rapidly develop into having basically no asymmetric information (beyond scum knowing each other) and that’s a disservice to the few of us in this game that care about the setup.

sweetandcool wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:34 pm

[...]
At the time, that was literally my PoE, plus Kak's unknown partner[...]

damo666 wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:16 pm

Kakarroto wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:04 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 20, 2023 12:12 pm

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.