Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[damo666]

He told me that A&I was infected count and N was uninfected count.

Correct but starting point should have read 6 2 1 4 5

But all the numbers follow from the first ones, as do the conclusions. Did you actually just fuck it up that badly?

'Fraid so.

How embarrassing.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Rdrivera: Please come out here and say things. We need to hear more from ye.

[Jamiet99uk]

So.

Is Damo:

1. Alien?
2. Infected Town?
3. Infected Scum?
4. Several raccoons in a trench coat attempting to impersonate a man?

[damo666]

so doing it properly

TOWN - MAFIA - ALIEN - [Max] Live (alien&infected) - Uninfected

NOW 6 2 1 --- 4 5

MK me 5 2 1 --- 3 5

wcs scum NK town uninfected 4 2 1 --- 3 4

alien infects 4 2 1 --- 4 3 alien wins

so assume scum hold/target alien 5 2 1 --- 3 5
alien infects 5 2 1 ---- 4 4

Essential alien killed tomorrow.

[damo666]

So.

Is Damo:

1. Alien?
2. Infected Town?
3. Infected Scum?
4. Several raccoons in a trench coat attempting to impersonate a man?

No
Yes
No
No

I trust that's helpful.

[ghug]

If you can't work out what "A" and "I" stand for in that context, I'm sorry for you.

Exactly.

The A&I number in that post is 5, not 4, and it's not a mistake because it predicated the rest of the logic. At the time I thought he was just trying to make things seem more dire than they were, which seemed like a good thing to do, but then he dropped it, and I want to know why.

It worked on Jamie!

Just an error in the top line which followed through and I got all excited.

Well, I was inclined to give you credit for it, but now I'm not. :/

[damo666]

Let us assume scum know who alien is. They therefore know I am town but as I happen to be infected they can afford to kill me.

The alien probably doesn't want to kill me but will probably have no choice but join/remain if wagon is runaway in order not to stand out.

Now, my fellow townies, if you think it is best policy to dk me because there is doubt in your mind so be it BUT PLEASE IF YOU ARE GOING TO VOTE ME MOVE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MINUTES AND VOTE ELSEWHERE BEFORE THAT.

If you all do that anyone remaining on me will look suspicious and it will be informative (or interesting at least) to see how the main suspects vote.

[damo666]

Exactly.

The A&I number in that post is 5, not 4, and it's not a mistake because it predicated the rest of the logic. At the time I thought he was just trying to make things seem more dire than they were, which seemed like a good thing to do, but then he dropped it, and I want to know why.

It worked on Jamie!

Just an error in the top line which followed through and I got all excited.

Well, I was inclined to give you credit for it, but now I'm not. :/

C'est la vie.

[rdrivera2005]

So.

Is Damo:

1. Alien?
2. Infected Town?
3. Infected Scum?
4. Several raccoons in a trench coat attempting to impersonate a man?

I think all options are possible.

I am trying to understand who as Alien would infect Damo, and I am having a hard time. Maybe Worcej.

I am around but I just don't see much happening. I tried to understand Vecna willingness to go all in on Worcej but he answered in Vecna's full of shit mode and I don't want to engage with this.

I don't feel I will be able to convince town to go all in on Ghug. ##vote Ghug

So, most people are just sitting on the safe wagon and I don't see much happening today.

[damo666]

@rdr it's a good point to consider who might choose me to infect. I think either ghug or worcej would but I can't see Bob doing it.

Kind of reinforces Maniac as scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE GUGH

[ghug]

So.

Is Damo:

1. Alien?
2. Infected Town?
3. Infected Scum?
4. Several raccoons in a trench coat attempting to impersonate a man?

I think all options are possible.

I am trying to understand who as Alien would infect Damo, and I am having a hard time. Maybe Worcej.

I am around but I just don't see much happening. I tried to understand Vecna willingness to go all in on Worcej but he answered in Vecna's full of shit mode and I don't want to engage with this.

I don't feel I will be able to convince town to go all in on Ghug. ##vote Ghug

So, most people are just sitting on the safe wagon and I don't see much happening today.

I still just can't understand why you're so convinced I'm the alien because of a single brainfart in a read list.

[worcej]

@Vecna - I'm not even remotely nervous. Damo is the best flip today with confirmed information.

@Damo - all of your analysis is contingent on several assumptions that are exactly that, assumptions. What is explicitly known is you have Alien DNA - you're the best play to flip because regardless of what the infection count is, your death lowers the infection count.

Let's run through the worst situation:

• 9 players - at worst we have 4 alien DNAs (3 infected and alien). We remove you and you're town, this is the worst case scenario. If you're scum, it's still bad, but we're more near victory.
• Chancing the removal of anyone not alien DNA'ed is suicide. Let's assume we DK a non-infected town or scum, the count goes immediately to 8-4 and the alien can infect. We're 100% dependent on scum not deciding to throw the game and lose any control of the game. I'll be explicit about this - if scum want to throw the game if they cannot win, all they need to do is NK Fox.
• Removing you, again at worst (you're not alien), we go to 8/3 and assuming scum hold NK, we're at 8-4 and we have another day and scan to shrink our pool and improve the odds of hitting alien. Still stuck at hoping scum NK infected, but the infected count can go down much easier.
• Assuming scum use NK and hit infected, we're at 7-3 and, as stated, have another scan result to remove another person from the alien pool, which consists of Maniac, ghug, Vecna, Bob, and myself.
• Vecna is most likely not the alien based of the rdr cure, but isn't mechanically eliminated. So really, we enter into D7 with (worst case scenario) 25% odds to hit the alien.
• If Alien decided to kill, they are not smart. Killing anyone at this point with scum withholding the NK would put them at 7-3 and push their victory out.

Damo - you're in the same position as celaph. You're infected, per the scan, and infected people need to be eliminated. All votes elsewhere are gambling and are more likely to cost us the game than dealing with you now.

[worcej]

So.

Is Damo:

1. Alien?
2. Infected Town?
3. Infected Scum?
4. Several raccoons in a trench coat attempting to impersonate a man?

1. Potentially
2. Also possible.
3. Also possible, this is where my money is overall because of his play earlier.
4. No, he's too smart to be that.

[Maniac]

I think we maybe looking at this wrong.

We could take out damo as the easy option today and if he isn't the alien we could be losers tonight unless scum hit another infected player.

It is likely/possible that scum hit the alien last night and his immunity saved him. So we need to ask ourselves would damo have been a good target for scum last night? They weren't trying to have their bullet bounce back.

My guess is that they would want to hit an infected townie and also an townie that makes their win more likely. From scum POV they are looking at too many clears/almost clears already, they needed to start thinning the herd.

So who would scum try and kill who turned out to be the alien.

Obv not Jamie, me or rdriveria.

Fox is either doc or scum,

Damo, ghug, vecna, worcej are all possible mis-daykills

So that only leaves Captain Bob!

I think they tried to murder him last night mainly to thin the herd but also hoping he might be infected. They can't of course tell us, but we could test this theory. Let's see if we get a straight eight votes for captain Bob.

In order each of you must vote for captain bob the next time you post. in this order.

Me, Jamie, Fox, RDR, Damo, Worcej, vecna Ghug,

Scum can then stay hidden, but the theory is also confirmed.

Let's do this.

##vote Bob

[ghug]

I think we maybe looking at this wrong.

We could take out damo as the easy option today and if he isn't the alien we could be losers tonight unless scum hit another infected player.

It is likely/possible that scum hit the alien last night and his immunity saved him. So we need to ask ourselves would damo have been a good target for scum last night? They weren't trying to have their bullet bounce back.

My guess is that they would want to hit an infected townie and also an townie that makes their win more likely. From scum POV they are looking at too many clears/almost clears already, they needed to start thinning the herd.

So who would scum try and kill who turned out to be the alien.

Obv not Jamie, me or rdriveria.

Fox is either doc or scum,

Damo, ghug, vecna, worcej are all possible mis-daykills

So that only leaves Captain Bob!

I think they tried to murder him last night mainly to thin the herd but also hoping he might be infected. They can't of course tell us, but we could test this theory. Let's see if we get a straight eight votes for captain Bob.

In order each of you must vote for captain bob the next time you post. in this order.

Me, Jamie, Fox, RDR, Damo, Worcej, vecna Ghug,

Scum can then stay hidden, but the theory is also confirmed.

Let's do this.

##vote Bob

This may be the least ridiculous post you've made all game.

[rdrivera2005]

So.

Is Damo:

1. Alien?
2. Infected Town?
3. Infected Scum?
4. Several raccoons in a trench coat attempting to impersonate a man?

I think all options are possible.

I am trying to understand who as Alien would infect Damo, and I am having a hard time. Maybe Worcej.

I am around but I just don't see much happening. I tried to understand Vecna willingness to go all in on Worcej but he answered in Vecna's full of shit mode and I don't want to engage with this.

I don't feel I will be able to convince town to go all in on Ghug. ##vote Ghug

So, most people are just sitting on the safe wagon and I don't see much happening today.

I still just can't understand why you're so convinced I'm the alien because of a single brainfart in a read list.

It's not only this. I think you would be a lot more engaged as either town or scum. I thought it was because of RL issues at start, but at no point I feel this from you. And I know you don't like third parties.

[rdrivera2005]

A bit out of order, but ##vote Bob

[ghug]

I think all options are possible.

I am trying to understand who as Alien would infect Damo, and I am having a hard time. Maybe Worcej.

I am around but I just don't see much happening. I tried to understand Vecna willingness to go all in on Worcej but he answered in Vecna's full of shit mode and I don't want to engage with this.

I don't feel I will be able to convince town to go all in on Ghug. ##vote Ghug

So, most people are just sitting on the safe wagon and I don't see much happening today.

I still just can't understand why you're so convinced I'm the alien because of a single brainfart in a read list.

It's not only this. I think you would be a lot more engaged as either town or scum. I thought it was because of RL issues at start, but at no point I feel this from you. And I know you don't like third parties.

I was the top poster yesterday. I don't know what more you're expecting from me.

[Jamiet99uk]

In order each of you must vote for captain bob the next time you post. in this order.

Me, Jamie, Fox, RDR, Damo, Worcej, vecna Ghug,

Scum can then stay hidden, but the theory is also confirmed.

Why do you want scum to stay hidden?