M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[damo666]

I don't see why Kgray is off the table.

Of the 8 players left there are:
5 medium value of which very likely there are either 1 or 2 scum
3 low value of which either 2 or all 3 are scum

There will not be no realistic medium value wagon.

That's why kgray is off the table as is Jamie Bunny Macca and me.

Do you realistically believe scum choose all the low value roles? And never roleblocked until last night? They allow trackers and Diarist and Voyeur all to town, plus 2 FH and never roleblocked. This is the boldest scum team ever.
I know they didn't took all three low value and I don't believe they took more then one. One tracker, UB and TS or FV give them better powers and one RB that is exactly what I think they got and used.

No, they didn't choose 3 low, but could be 2 low + recruit low

[kgray]

The worst part of Vecna's plan is that in the end Flum is the only one deciding the game. If he votes a town it's game over as scum can just follow him.
And if any other town vote wrong and isn't online at EOD it's game over (I am thinking on Macca). To be honest I suggest anyone that can't be online at EOD to just sheep Flum to have less chance to throw to scum.

I don't understand this. If anyone votes for town scum can just follow them. Why is Flum the only one deciding the game?

[BunnyGo]

Because we can't afford having 3 wagons today, unless all town are on the same wagon we lose.

Why are our two wagons already set?

One is set because of Flum. Unless he changes his vote, Chaqa is an option. And scum will vote me as I am scumread by many.

Why are they scum reading you?!

[kgray]

The worst part of Vecna's plan is that in the end Flum is the only one deciding the game. If he votes a town it's game over as scum can just follow him.
And if any other town vote wrong and isn't online at EOD it's game over (I am thinking on Macca). To be honest I suggest anyone that can't be online at EOD to just sheep Flum to have less chance to throw to scum.

Which is exactly what you and I were complaining about yesterday.

I felt quite pressured not to speak against it because I felt Vecna would instantly run a wagon against me and lose for the town.

This reads as very insincere to me. Vecna literally townread damo for disagreeing with him.

[kgray]

Looking again at the cost list.

Perhaps the scumteam did the Basic Package of 90 (chat and recruit) and then did the white flag.

The list of PR's is not a list of amazingly powerful roles.

Perhaps they realized that their best defense was to have money for some RB’s and RC’s.

White-flagging would obv gain them 20. And thus some bucks to do stuff.
Marking off our known/dead roles, what would their best buys have been? Theories abound, but to me nothing stands out as a WOW THAT IS WHAT THEY WOULD BUY item.

I am not saying they did NOT choose any Roles. I am saying that they bought the white flag, and then some mid-range or cheap roles (or no roles) and had money to spend all game.

Is it Occam’s razor to deduce that they chose to give themselves action-cash?
If they were out of cash last night… wouldn’t they have kept status quo (not hurt their position) by no killing and gaining 3?

Their simplest, no wifom (for them) plan might have been to do exactly as Jamie and kgray are claiming they did last night. It ensured the kill they most desired.

I would not have expected the most mechanical among us to choose this route. So not bozo, or vecna, or flum, or bunny. Maybe not Jamie. But the rest of us might have rolled that dice.

Might they have been rolecopping us the first few nights and that's how they hit the double voter? And even when "dodging the doctor saves" they hit the neighborizer and double voter. They might have known.

@Bunny are you really trying to imply that you forgot again that Hamilton was modkilled...?

[BunnyGo]

Looking again at the cost list.

Perhaps the scumteam did the Basic Package of 90 (chat and recruit) and then did the white flag.

The list of PR's is not a list of amazingly powerful roles.

Perhaps they realized that their best defense was to have money for some RB’s and RC’s.

White-flagging would obv gain them 20. And thus some bucks to do stuff.
Marking off our known/dead roles, what would their best buys have been? Theories abound, but to me nothing stands out as a WOW THAT IS WHAT THEY WOULD BUY item.

I am not saying they did NOT choose any Roles. I am saying that they bought the white flag, and then some mid-range or cheap roles (or no roles) and had money to spend all game.

Is it Occam’s razor to deduce that they chose to give themselves action-cash?
If they were out of cash last night… wouldn’t they have kept status quo (not hurt their position) by no killing and gaining 3?

Their simplest, no wifom (for them) plan might have been to do exactly as Jamie and kgray are claiming they did last night. It ensured the kill they most desired.

I would not have expected the most mechanical among us to choose this route. So not bozo, or vecna, or flum, or bunny. Maybe not Jamie. But the rest of us might have rolled that dice.

Might they have been rolecopping us the first few nights and that's how they hit the double voter? And even when "dodging the doctor saves" they hit the neighborizer and double voter. They might have known.

@Bunny are you really trying to imply that you forgot again that Hamilton was modkilled...?

Goddamn it. I only checked the bot when posting that to remind myself who died when. No, I didn’t forget how Hamilton died again. I forgot he was the neighborizer.

[BunnyGo]

Ok. If my choices are Chaqa and Rdr. The ##vote chaqa.

[kgray]

So, I think there's three broad scenarios we have to consider:

1. Both of the roleblock claims are true
In this scenario, I along with many others have been very wrong about Kgray. If both Jamie and Kgray are town, however, then Dargo must also be town, because there would be no reason to roleblock them both if scum has the Fruit Vendor. In this case, the scumteam would have to be in Chaqa, Damo, Bunny, Macca, Rivera

2. Neither of the roleblock claims are true
In this scenario, scum has both Faith Healers, whether through purchase or recruitment or random, it's hard to say. If scum owns both healers, Dargo is also likely town, since they'd not buy the FHs and the Fruit Vendor, I think. In thinking about what scumteam with two healers looks like, I'm tempted to believe kgray would be the recruit that random-rolled into Faith Healer. In this scenario, the scumteam is Jamiet, Kgray, and 2 of the rest of us that aren't Dargo. This seems like the least likely scenario, but I will go back and do some VCA and such to see who would be most likely to be their scum teammates if this is true.

3. One of the roleblock claims is true, the other is fake
I suppose this should be split into two sections - one for fakeJamie and one for fakeKgray, but I think if either one is fake it has to be Kgray. In this scenario, scum roleblocked Jamie or Kgray to ensure that their kill could go through, while the scum-Healer also claims RB. This makes sense to me as a possibility since Kgray was under a lot of suspicion, and this play would serve to make everyone clear her so an easy mis-kill can be pushed on me. Similar to before, if scum has FV, this play makes no sense, so Dargo is still clear. In this scenario, I think the scumteam is Kgray, and 3 of Chaqa/Damo/Bunny/Rivera/Macca.

Dargo looks extremely town in all three scenarios.

I rank likelihood of these as:
3 > 1 >>> 2

If one healer is fake, I think it's kgray.

Dargo locktown. Kgray only town if scumteam is exactly Macca, Damo, Bunny, Rivera. If any of those four are town, then the Kgray RB claim has to be fake.

Need to do some more analysis on Macca, Damo, Bunny, Rivera.

I think it's likely that darg is town, but your scenarios do not account for possible town!Bunny. If darg is scum they wouldn't use the FV to strongarm Vecna while town!Bunny was tracking.

So from my POV, scum!darg would confirm town!Bunny.

[kgray]

lol look at scumChaqa making scummate @darg locktown!

If Dargo is scum, why would mafia need to roleblock at all?

Your theory only makes sense if the scumteam is Jamie, Kgray, Me, and Dargo, and I think that's a laughably impossible scumteam.

Should have just quoted this one. They'd need to RB instead of using FV darg if Bunny is town.

[kgray]

So, I think there's three broad scenarios we have to consider:

-- snipped --

Having reread this your theory about FV having to be town is sound in scenarios 1 & 3. However in scenario 2 FV compliments 2FH very well as it denies town interference.

Having initially poured scorn on your post I have to put my thinking cap back on!

The Maniac kill also supports at least one scum FH.

No it doesn't. Scum would want to kill Vengeful as early as possible so the chances they hit town are highest. Once it became clear we weren't going to DK Maniac I don't think they really had a choice but to get it over with asap.

[BunnyGo]

lol look at scumChaqa making scummate @darg locktown!

If Dargo is scum, why would mafia need to roleblock at all?

Your theory only makes sense if the scumteam is Jamie, Kgray, Me, and Dargo, and I think that's a laughably impossible scumteam.

Should have just quoted this one. They'd need to RB instead of using FV darg if Bunny is town.

They’d need to RB me. But this would put a giant “I AM SCUM” sign over dargos head. So what they did is possible. But like I said, I’m saving that possibility for a later day.

[Chaqa]

Having reread this your theory about FV having to be town is sound in scenarios 1 & 3. However in scenario 2 FV compliments 2FH very well as it denies town interference.

Having initially poured scorn on your post I have to put my thinking cap back on!

The Maniac kill also supports at least one scum FH.

No it doesn't. Scum would want to kill Vengeful as early as possible so the chances they hit town are highest. Once it became clear we weren't going to DK Maniac I don't think they really had a choice but to get it over with asap.

Hmm.

If scum thought Maniac likely to shoot you or me, and we're both town, that could explain the kill as well.

There's enough stuff coming out that I'm having very slight doubts here.

[BunnyGo]

Having reread this your theory about FV having to be town is sound in scenarios 1 & 3. However in scenario 2 FV compliments 2FH very well as it denies town interference.

Having initially poured scorn on your post I have to put my thinking cap back on!

The Maniac kill also supports at least one scum FH.

No it doesn't. Scum would want to kill Vengeful as early as possible so the chances they hit town are highest. Once it became clear we weren't going to DK Maniac I don't think they really had a choice but to get it over with asap.

This is true. It’s also true the FH saved himself from Maniac. Which is NAI.

[kgray]

And Kgray isn't town, it's pretty obvious. Why do you think she is still alive?

Is this a real question? I've been a viable wagon since D2. Why would scum kill me?

[Chaqa]

Day 1:
Fluminator (9) BunnyGo, Jamiet99u​k, dargorygel, damo666, kgray, seth24c, Maniac, teacon7, 'The Double Vote'
Jamiet99uk (5) ghug, Fluminator, Chaqa, Hamilton Brian, bo_sox48
teacon7 (2) Vecna, rdrivera2005
ghug​ (1) Macca573
BunnyGo (1) bozotheclown

Day 2:
Hellenic Riot (7) Jamiet99uk, seth24c, Hamilton Brian, dargorygel, Vecna, Maniac, Chaqa
dargorygel (4) BunnyGo, Hellenic Riot, ghug, kgray
Maniac (3) bo_sox48, teacon7, rdrivera2005
teacon7 (2) damo666, The Double Vote
kgray (1) Flum

Day 3:
bo_sox48 (7) rdrivera2005, Macca573, damo6​66, seth24c, kgray, Maniac, ghug
seth24c (4) BunnyGo, da​rgorygel, Chaqa, The Double Vote
Maniac (2) Jamiet99uk, bo_sox48
kgray (1) Vecna

Day 4:
ghug (6) Jamiet99uk, dargorygel, damo666, ​kgray, Vecna, rdrivera2005
kgray (5) ghug, seth24c, Chaq​a, Fluminator, 'The Double Vote'
seth24c (2) Macca573, BunnyGo

I still think the answer lies in the VCA . Day 4 still doesn't feel like it was TvTvT to me.

[rdrivera2005]

The worst part of Vecna's plan is that in the end Flum is the only one deciding the game. If he votes a town it's game over as scum can just follow him.
And if any other town vote wrong and isn't online at EOD it's game over (I am thinking on Macca). To be honest I suggest anyone that can't be online at EOD to just sheep Flum to have less chance to throw to scum.

I don't understand this. If anyone votes for town scum can just follow them. Why is Flum the only one deciding the game?

Suppose Chaqa is town. All scum team need is a last minute move to Chaqa. It's risky as Flum can be online and change but not impossible specially if two scum were already voting him for example. One thing that makes scum read Chaqa hardly is that he isn't even bothering with this.

[Chaqa]

The worst part of Vecna's plan is that in the end Flum is the only one deciding the game. If he votes a town it's game over as scum can just follow him.
And if any other town vote wrong and isn't online at EOD it's game over (I am thinking on Macca). To be honest I suggest anyone that can't be online at EOD to just sheep Flum to have less chance to throw to scum.

I don't understand this. If anyone votes for town scum can just follow them. Why is Flum the only one deciding the game?

Suppose Chaqa is town. All scum team need is a last minute move to Chaqa. It's risky as Flum can be online and change but not impossible specially if two scum were already voting him for example. One thing that makes scum read Chaqa hardly is that he isn't even bothering with this.

Bothering with what? I don't follow.

It's unfortunate we have to sheep Flum. This was the downside of Vecna's plan.

[Chaqa]

It's also why I wanted us to come up with the exact person we were going to daykill today beforehand, so that we wouldn't have debate and risk.

[Jamiet99uk]

I don't understand this. If anyone votes for town scum can just follow them. Why is Flum the only one deciding the game?

Suppose Chaqa is town. All scum team need is a last minute move to Chaqa. It's risky as Flum can be online and change but not impossible specially if two scum were already voting him for example. One thing that makes scum read Chaqa hardly is that he isn't even bothering with this.

Bothering with what? I don't follow.

It's unfortunate we have to sheep Flum. This was the downside of Vecna's plan.

Flum is voting for you. I would be amused to see you sheep him.

[Chaqa]

Suppose Chaqa is town. All scum team need is a last minute move to Chaqa. It's risky as Flum can be online and change but not impossible specially if two scum were already voting him for example. One thing that makes scum read Chaqa hardly is that he isn't even bothering with this.

Bothering with what? I don't follow.

It's unfortunate we have to sheep Flum. This was the downside of Vecna's plan.

Flum is voting for you. I would be amused to see you sheep him.

As it stands, all four scum will be able to follow him and vote me out to win, so...