M1012 Redux

[bozotheclown]

I don't think Cop should reveal unless he got a guilty scan (which is game over, so it's obvious).
We are 6-1, so we have two myslynches before Lylo, if the game not end becore and cop is still alive at lylo we improve the odds from 1/3 to 1/2.
And I am not even considering the scan because of the mask.

But I don't think Durga is scum because of bad mechanics analysis. She pushed Flash when the wagon on him was dead, she isn't the lynch today.
We should lynch between Bozo and Hamilton, the VCA from D1 point to this and they both are scummy.

##vote Bozo

I voted for HB because he was my top scum read, then with half an hour left in the day, I voted for Vecna because I thought he was more likely to be scum than flash or summit. When flash claimed doctor, I thought it was likely a fake claim because of the timing of the claim and because I thought Jamie was crumbing doctor when I figured out what he was quoting. I assumed Jamie was confirming he was the doctor, and I voted for flash, when Jamie posted this:

He isn't the Doctor.

Why about your VCA points to me?

The fact you voted Vecna when Flash was the leading wagon with a lame reasoning that he is hard to kill as scum.

By the way, based strictly on VCA, you look worse than anyone. You jumped to flash only after summit put him up 5-2-2, and you tried to save flash after he claimed doctor. If summit was your top scum read, why did you change your vote to flash as soon as summit voted for flash? Did you believe flash's doctor claim? Did you not realize that Jamie was hinting all day that he was the doctor?

[rdrivera2005]

I voted for HB because he was my top scum read, then with half an hour left in the day, I voted for Vecna because I thought he was more likely to be scum than flash or summit. When flash claimed doctor, I thought it was likely a fake claim because of the timing of the claim and because I thought Jamie was crumbing doctor when I figured out what he was quoting. I assumed Jamie was confirming he was the doctor, and I voted for flash, when Jamie posted this:



Why about your VCA points to me?

The fact you voted Vecna when Flash was the leading wagon with a lame reasoning that he is hard to kill as scum.

By the way, based strictly on VCA, you look worse than anyone. You jumped to flash only after summit put him up 5-2-2, and you tried to save flash after he claimed doctor. If summit was your top scum read, why did you change your vote to flash as soon as summit voted for flash? Did you believe flash's doctor claim? Did you not realize that Jamie was hinting all day that he was the doctor?

I told before that I would vote for Flash over Vecna, why I would do this as scum? Also, look the time of the votes, I voted Flash as soon as I see Jamiet voted him.
And I moved out when Flash claimed, you don't lynch an un--cced PR. I suspect more who didn't move.

[rdrivera2005]

What do you want to hear from me?

I want to hear your analysis on what summit asked me. And also what you think the reason for Vecna being the NK and what can or can't be read from this?

I do not think I would try that as scum, it seems too obvious. I do not know why Vecna was the NK, it could be any of a number of reasons, so I do not think we can conclude anything from it.

Could you list some of the reasons or at least what you think is most likely?

[bozotheclown]

Looking at the D1 VCA, the remaining 6 non-clears can be grouped into three categories:

1. rdrivera and summit: They both joined the flash when it looked like he was very likely the kill two different times, first after Jamie and Vecna switched their votes to flash, then again after Jamie counterclaimed flash. They both also changed their votes after flash claimed doctor.

2. HB and myself: We did not vote for flash until after Jamie indicated flash's claim was fake, but before Jamie hard claimed doctor.

3. Durga and emc: They voted for flash early and never changed their votes, even when flash claimed doctor. They would have to have been hard bussing flash.

The bottom line is that a case could be made for anyone based on VCA, and whoever is scum, a town voted in a similar way.

[bozotheclown]

The fact you voted Vecna when Flash was the leading wagon with a lame reasoning that he is hard to kill as scum.

By the way, based strictly on VCA, you look worse than anyone. You jumped to flash only after summit put him up 5-2-2, and you tried to save flash after he claimed doctor. If summit was your top scum read, why did you change your vote to flash as soon as summit voted for flash? Did you believe flash's doctor claim? Did you not realize that Jamie was hinting all day that he was the doctor?

I told before that I would vote for Flash over Vecna, why I would do this as scum? Also, look the time of the votes, I voted Flash as soon as I see Jamiet voted him.
And I moved out when Flash claimed, you don't lynch an un--cced PR. I suspect more who didn't move.

You could have done that to bus flash. I would have voted for flash over summit, but I did not think it was necessary to announce that.

You voted for flash one minute after Jamie according to the bot, which could be anywhere from 0 to 2 minutes. However, Vecna and summit got their votes for flash in before you, and you had another post after Jamie's vote before you voted for flash.

I understand moving your vote when flash claimed doctor, and summit and Vecna also moved their votes, but you did not answer my question of whether you saw that Jamie was crumbing doctor.

[bozotheclown]

I had Vecna all wrong then. I was going to question them on the flipping of votes 3 times in the last minute. I need to check in to my notes, but my certainty for town is wholly on Durga and EMC. I can cross Vecna off the "suspicious" list.

I had some questions for Durga. You were pretty adamant with only a little time remaining to vote Flash. Can I ask what it was that made you so certain they were scum? I'm asking just to see if there's something I missed or some nuance that was over my head.

HB why did you post this AFTER night ended?

I wasn't sure I was supposed to be posting at all and I didn't see the relevance to nighttime.

I think this is likely a scum slip, with HB trying to come up with an answer to Durga's question, because not only did HB post 15 minutes into N1, he posted throughout N1 in the canceled game, a total of 14 N1 posts.

HB's vote for flash came after Jamie posted this:

He isn't the Doctor.

And before this post:

Flash is NOT the DOCTOR.

I AM THE DOCTOR

That is why I have been posting from FRONTIER PSYCHIATRIST all day long.

LYNCH FLASH NOW.

My vote for flash was also between those 2 posts, but that is because I had assumed Jamie was crumbing doctor because of what he was quoting, so I took his saying flash was not the doctor as confirmation that Jamie was the doctor. HB has not indicated he thought Jamie was crumbing doctor, so he may have been quick to take Jamie's post saying flash was not the doctor as a doctor claim because he knew flash was not the doctor.

##VOTE Hamilton Brian

[rdrivera2005]

By the way, based strictly on VCA, you look worse than anyone. You jumped to flash only after summit put him up 5-2-2, and you tried to save flash after he claimed doctor. If summit was your top scum read, why did you change your vote to flash as soon as summit voted for flash? Did you believe flash's doctor claim? Did you not realize that Jamie was hinting all day that he was the doctor?

I told before that I would vote for Flash over Vecna, why I would do this as scum? Also, look the time of the votes, I voted Flash as soon as I see Jamiet voted him.
And I moved out when Flash claimed, you don't lynch an un--cced PR. I suspect more who didn't move.

You could have done that to bus flash. I would have voted for flash over summit, but I did not think it was necessary to announce that.

You voted for flash one minute after Jamie according to the bot, which could be anywhere from 0 to 2 minutes. However, Vecna and summit got their votes for flash in before you, and you had another post after Jamie's vote before you voted for flash.

I understand moving your vote when flash claimed doctor, and summit and Vecna also moved their votes, but you did not answer my question of whether you saw that Jamie was crumbing doctor.

I saw that he was playing as a psychiatrist or something like that, but didn't think it was a crumb.

[rdrivera2005]

Looking at the D1 VCA, the remaining 6 non-clears can be grouped into three categories:

1. rdrivera and summit: They both joined the flash when it looked like he was very likely the kill two different times, first after Jamie and Vecna switched their votes to flash, then again after Jamie counterclaimed flash. They both also changed their votes after flash claimed doctor.

2. HB and myself: We did not vote for flash until after Jamie indicated flash's claim was fake, but before Jamie hard claimed doctor.

3. Durga and emc: They voted for flash early and never changed their votes, even when flash claimed doctor. They would have to have been hard bussing flash.

The bottom line is that a case could be made for anyone based on VCA, and whoever is scum, a town voted in a similar way.

I agree with this grouping. As I know I am town I tend to believe summit is also town. So, you and HB are the ones I want to lynch. My bet is on you because of the NK.

[bozotheclown]

Looking at the D1 VCA, the remaining 6 non-clears can be grouped into three categories:

1. rdrivera and summit: They both joined the flash when it looked like he was very likely the kill two different times, first after Jamie and Vecna switched their votes to flash, then again after Jamie counterclaimed flash. They both also changed their votes after flash claimed doctor.

2. HB and myself: We did not vote for flash until after Jamie indicated flash's claim was fake, but before Jamie hard claimed doctor.

3. Durga and emc: They voted for flash early and never changed their votes, even when flash claimed doctor. They would have to have been hard bussing flash.

The bottom line is that a case could be made for anyone based on VCA, and whoever is scum, a town voted in a similar way.

I agree with this grouping. As I know I am town I tend to believe summit is also town. So, you and HB are the ones I want to lynch. My bet is on you because of the NK.

I think you and summit look the worse based just on VCA, but I know at least one of you in town.

[bozotheclown]

I want to hear your analysis on what summit asked me. And also what you think the reason for Vecna being the NK and what can or can't be read from this?

I do not think I would try that as scum, it seems too obvious. I do not know why Vecna was the NK, it could be any of a number of reasons, so I do not think we can conclude anything from it.

Could you list some of the reasons or at least what you think is most likely?

The mafia may have thought he was the cop, because he is a good player, because his reads were good, to freeze his reads because he was misreading the second scum, I don't know what is most likely.

[bozotheclown]

Looking at the D1 VCA, the remaining 6 non-clears can be grouped into three categories:

1. rdrivera and summit: They both joined the flash when it looked like he was very likely the kill two different times, first after Jamie and Vecna switched their votes to flash, then again after Jamie counterclaimed flash. They both also changed their votes after flash claimed doctor.

2. HB and myself: We did not vote for flash until after Jamie indicated flash's claim was fake, but before Jamie hard claimed doctor.

3. Durga and emc: They voted for flash early and never changed their votes, even when flash claimed doctor. They would have to have been hard bussing flash.

The bottom line is that a case could be made for anyone based on VCA, and whoever is scum, a town voted in a similar way.

I agree with this grouping. As I know I am town I tend to believe summit is also town. So, you and HB are the ones I want to lynch. My bet is on you because of the NK.

That could be a reason for you to NK Vecna.

I think bozo is a high chance of scum though

Another thing I start to agree.

You did not seem to scum read me before, but you were quick to agree with Vecna, and that was before you knew flash was scum. Now you say VCA points to me, which is confirmation bias at best.

If I was scum with flash, why would I go after Vecna D1 instead of just voting for summit?

[Durga]

I already said why. If you need me to repeat: cop may generally be useless bc scan cannot be confirmed + might be better to have a confirmed townie here.

But Jamie might be right that it may be better further down the game instead of right now. Idk. I'm not gonna repeat this again. It is not scummy to suggest this. It might be wrong, but let's move on now.

##vote Hamilton

Have you stopped scumreading Bozo?

I don't know but I cannot figure out a townie reason for HB to.... do any of that

[Durga]

Yeah, you're right. I forgot I posted that. Unbelievable, I know, and totally casts me in a scummy light. I know I posted a couple of things that I think were before GM said stop posting. I'm not going to go back through to those posts to see when exactly it was. It doesn't accomplish anything other than me trying to continue to defend myself against my own ineptness.

Besides the 2 posts you did make N1, you also posted 14 times N1 in the game that was canceled, so it is hard to believe you did not think you could post at night.

........
Why would town lie like this then? I'm so confused.

[Durga]

I'm trying to see a way for HB to be town but I'm really failing. Maybe he's the best lynch I'm not hating what I'm seeing out of Bozo today.

[Durga]

Why is emc missing again? Why does he bother playing if he's not actually going to post?

[rdrivera2005]

I do not think I would try that as scum, it seems too obvious. I do not know why Vecna was the NK, it could be any of a number of reasons, so I do not think we can conclude anything from it.

Could you list some of the reasons or at least what you think is most likely?

The mafia may have thought he was the cop, because he is a good player, because his reads were good, to freeze his reads because he was misreading the second scum, I don't know what is most likely.

Here is the point that make me vote on you instead of HB. First reason you point is the only one that really makes sense. Mafia need to kill the Cop or his chances are really low. I was expecting you to point that as you are usually focused on mechanics. I think HB would have gone for the obvious kill on the town clear Jamiet.

[Hamilton Brian]

I think this might be a long post as I need to keep going back to different posts to respond.

1)First off, this has been an exercise. So for those of you that have the capacity to get involved in larger games and put the effort it, I am impressed.

2)I had to look up "crumbing." No, I didn't pick up that Jamie was "crumbing doctor." That's a nuance I didn't think of.

3) Yesterday's whatever-to-call-it on my part was ludicrous. There's a couple of ways of dealing with it, though. Pass it off as regrettable, punch me in the shoulder and yell, "Do better next time!" Or, lynch me tonight. I didn't say it before explicitly before. However, I didn't have to. My behaviour said it loud and clear. I think Durga is noticeably annoyed enough to vote to lynch me. It's the follow-up vote that interests me. The other player under equal suspicion is Bozo. They didn't wait a moment to get on the HB wagon.

4) So yesterday I looked at the last minutes of the vote. From what I've been reading, vote counts aren't the BEST determiner of motive, but they're something. It's the best thing I have in my arsenal right now. I read through the thread and documented the quick changes that were happening. I noted 4 votes for Flash from 9:57 to 9:58. There were some notable changes off of Flash over the last minute...Vecna, Summit, Rdrivera. Something I should have asked yesterday is "Why did you move that vote off?" I'm still interested, but I am most interested in the very final vote cast for Flash. That was by Bozo. They moved from Vecna to Flash.

5) In a post time-stamped 2:53am, Bozo goes at length to dig into events from the previous game, but then also the first day vote from this game to document the chatter during the vote. I paid attention to it but I was more interested in who moved when. My gut on this, because I know I am town, is that Bozo is trying to contribute to an iron-clad case against me. Lynch the townie, and it gives mafia at least one more night kill, bringing them closer to winning the game.

##VOTE BOZO

[Jamiet99uk]

@EMC: Are you going to participate please?

[Jamiet99uk]

Miss Fishborne, EMC's truancy problem is way out of hand.

[Foxcastle]

VOTE COUNT 2.1

Hamilton Brian (2) — Durga, bozotheclown
bozotheclown (2) — rdrivera2005, Hamilton Brian
Durga (1) — Jamiet99uk

Summit_fever must make a valid vote. E.m.c^42 must meet posting and voting requirements.

No one is set to be eliminated. Day 2 ends in less than 8 hours.