M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[kgray]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

Ok you are probably right, the most likely split is 2 high 1 low.

Of the highs (Kgray, Jamie, Vecna, Macca, Bunny, Me) I know I am town and I assume you Vecna are town (if you are scum I think town have lost so I'm ignoring this possibility). Pointless voting for Macca (arguably the most attractive role of the group to scum). This leaves bunny and the 2 docs with probably only 1 of them scum. So, from mpov, the odds are the same. However I do see some merit in your argument so I am revising my voting strategy to the following:

I will vote for whichever of the following looks like having the most chance of being top wagon

rdr chaqa bunny kgray darg Jamie (in s -> t order for interest and for use in event of a tie)

I will not vote for Macca, Vecna nor, unsurprisingly, myself.

So based on current vote count

##vote chaqa

I think I believe this explanation. Damo's probabilities always have seemingly arbitrary assumptions baked into them.

But while I'm thrilled Chaqa is getting some votes, you do realize that by voting now you're affecting which wagons are viable at EOD? If you think rivera is most likely scum you should start that wagon, otherwise you're limiting your later options and setting yourself up to not be able to vote your top suspect. I get joining bigger wagons later in the day, but we've got lots of time left.

This seems like another case of Rivera and damo suspecting each other but not actually trying to make wagons happen.

[BunnyGo]

<snip>
Ok... I think bunny is right.
<snip>

https://reactiongifs.me/double-take-surprise/

[kgray]

10. Despite my lack of posts I am I understand there is no point voting for Macca, although there is something that worries me.

If Macca is town, his claim is surely true. Fine.

If Macca is the scum governor, wouldn't it be a strong strategy to claim he acted on himself, while in fact using his power on the scum-mate he felt was most likely to be a wagon today?

Have we verified that he definitely used the power in the way that he claims? Vecna did you confirm this somehow? Your earlier posts suggest you were not sure what Macca had, or had not, done.

Otherwise, are we worried about the scenario I am suggesting? If so, is there anything we could do, or is it simply not that much of a risk?

We talked about this briefly yesterday and I think the only way to verify it is to get one vote on Macca. I don't know if that's worth letting a larger portion of the "main" votes go to scum.

@Vecna why didn't you watch Macca last night?

[damo666]

I'm confused about the faith healers.

Does first cost 15 and second cost 5 as bunny suggests?

The descriptions differ, one can be interfered with by the other FH (costs 5) the other doesn't say this and costs 15. Does this mean the latter is not interfered with hence costing more - i.e is actually unmodified?

##call GM Can you clarify if the different prices are because they have different powers (and scum can choose which) or are the prices simply dependent on whether scum buy just 1 or both. Thanks.

[BunnyGo]

10. Despite my lack of posts I am I understand there is no point voting for Macca, although there is something that worries me.

If Macca is town, his claim is surely true. Fine.

If Macca is the scum governor, wouldn't it be a strong strategy to claim he acted on himself, while in fact using his power on the scum-mate he felt was most likely to be a wagon today?

Have we verified that he definitely used the power in the way that he claims? Vecna did you confirm this somehow? Your earlier posts suggest you were not sure what Macca had, or had not, done.

Otherwise, are we worried about the scenario I am suggesting? If so, is there anything we could do, or is it simply not that much of a risk?

We talked about this briefly yesterday and I think the only way to verify it is to get one vote on Macca. I don't know if that's worth letting a larger portion of the "main" votes go to scum.

@Vecna why didn't you watch Macca last night?

Why do we need one on Macca? Have we confirmed with the GM that he'll disappear from the official final vote tally if governored? If so, should we just ask Flum to be our confirmation vote?

[kgray]

KGRAY:

##vote Chaqa

> No specific reason stated. Kgray listed Chaqa as a scumread last night "especially with Ghug's flip" but did not explain why this confirmed Chaqa as scum.

QUESTION: Kgray, what is your case against Chaqa?

"Especially with ghug's flip" meant that I have suspected for most of the game that Chaqa has been buddying ghug. Now that ghug is confirmed town, this reinforces my read.

I will summarize/explain my full case later today.

[BunnyGo]

I'm confused about the faith healers.

Does first cost 5 and second cost 15 as bunny suggests?

<snip>

Bunny suggested the opposite, fixed above.

[damo666]

I'm confused about the faith healers.

Does first cost 5 and second cost 15 as bunny suggests?

<snip>

Bunny suggested the opposite, fixed above.

Yep sorry I meant 15 for the first, 5 for the second

##call GM please note this as an amendment to my question

[kgray]

10. Despite my lack of posts I am I understand there is no point voting for Macca, although there is something that worries me.

If Macca is town, his claim is surely true. Fine.

If Macca is the scum governor, wouldn't it be a strong strategy to claim he acted on himself, while in fact using his power on the scum-mate he felt was most likely to be a wagon today?

Have we verified that he definitely used the power in the way that he claims? Vecna did you confirm this somehow? Your earlier posts suggest you were not sure what Macca had, or had not, done.

Otherwise, are we worried about the scenario I am suggesting? If so, is there anything we could do, or is it simply not that much of a risk?

We talked about this briefly yesterday and I think the only way to verify it is to get one vote on Macca. I don't know if that's worth letting a larger portion of the "main" votes go to scum.

@Vecna why didn't you watch Macca last night?

Why do we need one on Macca? Have we confirmed with the GM that he'll disappear from the official final vote tally if governored? If so, should we just ask Flum to be our confirmation vote?

That is my understanding of what will happen with the final vote count:

The person they target will have a vote count of 0 in the final votes for the phase. If they were the leading wagon, then the next highest would get the day kill 'honors'.

I think Flum is the obvious choice if he's not still following the game. If he is still reading, I don't know if it's fair to make him do that, since he can't really state his reads/cases in any other way.

[kgray]

Interesting that youre not even considering that yesterday couldve been TvT chaqa. Just straight to the VCA analysis based on an assumption?

It could have been. If it was T v T v T (keeping Seth there too), then dargo MUST be scum.

Is this based on your healer/FV mechs theory or VCA?

[BunnyGo]

@@Flum if you have a real opinion and want to stay on it, then vote them (read: please vote dargo). Otherwise, can you be our placeholder on Macca? It makes sense as we don't need any VCA from you to determine your alignment.

Any objections from others?

[kgray]

12. Bunny, there were two pages of activity since your last post. Would it have killed you to read those pages before posting, rather than wiring in shouting and screaming like a moron about Darg's vote for Macca, when his vote has been on Chaqa, and not Macca, for several hours? You just make yourself look an idiot.

Nobody is voting for Macca today. Do you understand why that is?

Well darg did vote for Macca after Macca claimed they governed themself. So I don't think Bunny's reaction was unreasonable at all.

[BunnyGo]

Interesting that youre not even considering that yesterday couldve been TvT chaqa. Just straight to the VCA analysis based on an assumption?

It could have been. If it was T v T v T (keeping Seth there too), then dargo MUST be scum.

Is this based on your healer/FV mechs theory or VCA?

healer/FV theory. I also just don't see what Vecna sees about dargo. Waiting for him to point me to their exchanges that convinced him so much.

[damo666]

AS bunny suggested I have thought a lot about possible scum purchase combinations. I will post my findings once GM has answered about the FHs but I find it almost certain PV was not an original purchase. Therefore rdr is only scum if he was recruited.

I will not be voting rdr today.

[rdrivera2005]

Damo is hunting in the 0 point candidates, being fine to kill any of the three, while he does not try to sort the pool of "5 point candidates" whatsoever, even though those likely contain 2 scum.

For someone that always depends on statistics so strongly, how does he not realize that catching someone with a 1/3 chance is very much worse then killing in the 2/4 pool? Especially considering that pool holds significantly more people thatd be a better recruitment target?

Ok you are probably right, the most likely split is 2 high 1 low.

Of the highs (Kgray, Jamie, Vecna, Macca, Bunny, Me) I know I am town and I assume you Vecna are town (if you are scum I think town have lost so I'm ignoring this possibility). Pointless voting for Macca (arguably the most attractive role of the group to scum). This leaves bunny and the 2 docs with probably only 1 of them scum. So, from mpov, the odds are the same. However I do see some merit in your argument so I am revising my voting strategy to the following:

I will vote for whichever of the following looks like having the most chance of being top wagon

rdr chaqa bunny kgray darg Jamie (in s -> t order for interest and for use in event of a tie)

I will not vote for Macca, Vecna nor, unsurprisingly, myself.

So based on current vote count

##vote chaqa

I think I believe this explanation. Damo's probabilities always have seemingly arbitrary assumptions baked into them.

But while I'm thrilled Chaqa is getting some votes, you do realize that by voting now you're affecting which wagons are viable at EOD? If you think rivera is most likely scum you should start that wagon, otherwise you're limiting your later options and setting yourself up to not be able to vote your top suspect. I get joining bigger wagons later in the day, but we've got lots of time left.

This seems like another case of Rivera and damo suspecting each other but not actually trying to make wagons happen.

Well, another time you try to cast shadow on me without reason. I am voting Damo. You ate clearly tryng to set a myslinch for later and it need to be between me and the one that isn't

I think scum choose at least one trackers. And recruited you. So, I am voting for Damo, Kgray or Bunny today in this order of preference.

[Vecna]

I'm fairly sure they recruited at this point because:

A) They started with 80 coin, and the most expensive 3 remaining roles together are about 25 coin. So they could role block an unlimited number of times if they didn't recruit, and nobody has ever claimed one. Hence, they recruited.

B) I was shouting at damo for voting chaqa when he stated he's just sheeping. It's too early to sheep. Damo said "I think fruit vendor is scummiest role left...but I'll just vote for a viable wagon instead." This is awful. This is really really awful. Vote your reads at this point. Sheep "viability" later.

C) I assume that any 3 remaining players here with 24 hours had a mental state. I'm not saying it was perfect, but it was considered. Even the three least experienced and mechanics oriented players remaining here can read and think. What were they thinking? Did all 3 of them not read the rules? Did they not discuss which of the three cheap roles was valuable? Your (Jamie's) plausible statement you didn't realize that is another small nudge for me that you're not scum and so points me yet again that dargo is.

D) If it is kgray, then everything else is pointing at you. Taking one doctor is meh. Also, you more than anyone else saved her yesterday (which combines with the taking two doctors thing). But yes, I am having trouble concocting a mafia team that isn't: dargo + others or jamie+kgray+white flag + others.

Why are you limiting your posts?

maybe you should reread the point ammounts so that you can either be properly informed or stop pretending to not be properly informed.

[kgray]

<snip>
I'll read this carefully tomorrow. If bunny is right, scum is among the docs? Because i am not.

tldr; Sit down for 10 minutes and think through what the scum were deciding at the beginning that they bypassed other roles and chose from this group of roles. Tell me what you come up with. Because I don't see how they bypass fruit vendor AND the doctors.

This is really unconvincing to me, and not just because I'm a doc. Docs don't do anything for scum and they aren't even that useful to town. Jamie saved himself from the Vengeful but neither of us have managed to prevent a scum NK. Trackers are a lot more harmful to a scumteam than docs are *and* they can actually help scum figure out roles.

So if you remove the fact that we each know our own roles and alignments, and put yourself in a "what would scum do D1" perspective like you're wanting us all to do, I think scum are a lot more likely to pick up both trackers than both healers.

[kgray]

<snip>
I'll read this carefully tomorrow. If bunny is right, scum is among the docs? Because i am not.

tldr; Sit down for 10 minutes and think through what the scum were deciding at the beginning that they bypassed other roles and chose from this group of roles. Tell me what you come up with. Because I don't see how they bypass fruit vendor AND the doctors.

Ok... I think bunny is right.
This IS not the only scum. But it is probably one.
We should vote between me, kgray and Jamie...
Unless someone comes up with a better plan.
Combine gut feelings gas not worked do far.

I'll line out my reasoning on my choice when I have time.
##vote kgray

Are you serious?? You believe his theory that scum chose both healers and you're going to vote based on that over everything else that happened this game? When he's one of your top scumreads?

[kgray]

Ok you are probably right, the most likely split is 2 high 1 low.

Of the highs (Kgray, Jamie, Vecna, Macca, Bunny, Me) I know I am town and I assume you Vecna are town (if you are scum I think town have lost so I'm ignoring this possibility). Pointless voting for Macca (arguably the most attractive role of the group to scum). This leaves bunny and the 2 docs with probably only 1 of them scum. So, from mpov, the odds are the same. However I do see some merit in your argument so I am revising my voting strategy to the following:

I will vote for whichever of the following looks like having the most chance of being top wagon

rdr chaqa bunny kgray darg Jamie (in s -> t order for interest and for use in event of a tie)

I will not vote for Macca, Vecna nor, unsurprisingly, myself.

So based on current vote count

##vote chaqa

I think I believe this explanation. Damo's probabilities always have seemingly arbitrary assumptions baked into them.

But while I'm thrilled Chaqa is getting some votes, you do realize that by voting now you're affecting which wagons are viable at EOD? If you think rivera is most likely scum you should start that wagon, otherwise you're limiting your later options and setting yourself up to not be able to vote your top suspect. I get joining bigger wagons later in the day, but we've got lots of time left.

This seems like another case of Rivera and damo suspecting each other but not actually trying to make wagons happen.

Well, another time you try to cast shadow on me without reason. I am voting Damo. You ate clearly tryng to set a myslinch for later and it need to be between me and the one that isn't

I think scum choose at least one trackers. And recruited you. So, I am voting for Damo, Kgray or Bunny today in this order of preference.

It's not without reason and it's directed at damo, not you. No need to be so defensive.

[Vecna]

feature recruitments into your thinking people.

mafia had 10 points to spent