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Chaqa wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:07 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:01 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:25 pm

Well, Dargo, I suppose...

@Maniac - vote for Vapor and vote end please.

Why you want a possible scum voting Vapor?

Mainly being cheeky.

The scumteam is Vapor, Maniac, Sulit, and either Kalel or Damo, IMO.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:58 pm

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:58 pm

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:06 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:58 pm

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

So what's your solution to a last-minute space stone use that jets vapor out of the possible pool, leaving... who knows what to be the outcome.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:58 pm

Who is sure Chaqa is town?

Who can rule out a Chaqa / Maniac bussing act? They know each other very well and played in many, many games together.

Chaqa coming up with an apparently detailed plan, then suddenly demanding endvotes once most people were on board, while casually discarding key elements of his plan..... this is suspect conduct.

Maniac is hunting the SK, not looking for scum.

They could be a scum pair.

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:25 pm

@Jamiet -

If you go back and reread my plan, the goal is to:
1. Lynch Vapor while
2. Ensuring the SK doesn't gain any more stones and
3. Minimize the chance scum keeps the stone

In order to ensure #1 happens, we need to end vote, otherwise mafia will save Vapor with the Space Stone. In order to end vote, we need 8 people. I covered with reasoning why I chose the 8 people I did, with the caveat we can't 100% guarantee that all are not scum. That said, using my best information, I think I've chosen optimally.

#2 is a non-issue if I'm correct (which I think I am) that Kitsune or Kalel is the SK.

#3, as I laid out, we have a greater than 50% chance of the stone passing to town. Three of the people on the wagon are confirmed-ish town, with myself and Fox being very very likely town. Let's say TWO scum got into the mix somehow, that's still a 6/8 or 75% that the stone passes to town.

And this all assumes Vapor even has a stone, which isn't guaranteed, as scum would likely pass stones to their least-suspected member.

So all in all, I can't see any logical gaps in this plan that make it worse than any other play, because the mafia WILL use the Space Stone to save one of their own at the last possible second, a hammer is necessary.

KalelChase wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:39 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:25 pm

@Jamiet -

If you go back and reread my plan, the goal is to:
1. Lynch Vapor while
2. Ensuring the SK doesn't gain any more stones and
3. Minimize the chance scum keeps the stone

In order to ensure #1 happens, we need to end vote, otherwise mafia will save Vapor with the Space Stone. In order to end vote, we need 8 people. I covered with reasoning why I chose the 8 people I did, with the caveat we can't 100% guarantee that all are not scum. That said, using my best information, I think I've chosen optimally.

#2 is a non-issue if I'm correct (which I think I am) that Kitsune or Kalel is the SK.

#3, as I laid out, we have a greater than 50% chance of the stone passing to town. Three of the people on the wagon are confirmed-ish town, with myself and Fox being very very likely town. Let's say TWO scum got into the mix somehow, that's still a 6/8 or 75% that the stone passes to town.

And this all assumes Vapor even has a stone, which isn't guaranteed, as scum would likely pass stones to their least-suspected member.

So all in all, I can't see any logical gaps in this plan that make it worse than any other play, because the mafia WILL use the Space Stone to save one of their own at the last possible second, a hammer is necessary.

Chaq,

On #2... (since I'm sure I'm not SK), would that explain why Kitsune was 'banished' by scum? The D2 vote, when Kit was gone, was the first one not manipulated by the power stone. Could scum have even known Kit was SK at that point (otherwise it was just a lucky guess)?

Since Kit was on the Bozo wagon and bozo had no stone.

After ISOing Kit and looking at votes I can see the parallels in our posts/votes... lot of Meta conversation and with the exception of D1 when she was gone always hopping on the big wagon.

I'm moving over to Maniac in case Vapor is 'banished', but happy to join on main wagon if you need the vote.

##VOTE Maniac

foodcoats wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:03 pm

@Kalel I don't think you should be trying to build a counter-wagon. That just makes it EASIER for scum to flip it.

KalelChase wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:06 pm

foodcoats wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:03 pm

@Kalel I don't think you should be trying to build a counter-wagon. That just makes it EASIER for scum to flip it.

Fair enough... are you going to vote end?

##Vote Kalel

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:07 pm

@Kal - no need for the Maniac vote yet, and we absolutely need Jamiet in the Vapor wagon.

@Food - we could swap sulit or maybe Damo for Rivera, I guess. But I really thin its a Kitsune.

Jamie, what do you think?

Kitsune wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:15 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:07 pm

@Kal - no need for the Maniac vote yet, and we absolutely need Jamiet in the Vapor wagon.

@Food - we could swap sulit or maybe Damo for Rivera, I guess. But I really thin its a Kitsune.

Jamie, what do you think?

You’re wrong about me, but I don’t particularly need the extra shade for helping to lynch another top wagon, especially while I’m not wholly convinced he’s even guilty. I’ll follow your lead and trust to your calculations and your experience, but have you considered you could be wrong?