Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[ND]

Sad that my read on ND died so quickly

Sad that you still haven't offered any thoughts about my ET case despite obviously being online.

[teacon7]

You understand that if he isn't Judge the Judge can just stay quiet and choose him tomorrow to be one of his targets? It's an horrible play as scum to fake claim Judge.

Based on the information WE have, yes it's a horrible play. But we really don't know Tom's identity, do we? For crying out loud, you could be scum (and the reason you weren't CCed was because Tom was Reporter) - the Mafia could NK the Judge (Neph) and keep you in the game without suspicion and people still would think that you're 99% town.

I thought about that possibility. The only problem is, what happens when rivera doesn't die? How does he explain it?

...the rest of the scumteam gets all other PR to claim, then maf elects to shoot someone else. In that scenario, it'd look like maf thought judge was more dangerous than reporter, and rdriv lives to make another sighting claim.

I don't think that's the case. Chances are pretty astronomical that they shot/janitor'd the reporter AND knew to fakeclaim reporter. It's well into tinfoil territory, but in a totally pedantic move I wanted to share how I thought it'd play out.

But since we're thinking of it:

Did anyone doing an iso on Tom notice reporter crumbs?

[teacon7]

I think either way though, Nephthys shouldn't be a lynch, because in this hypothetical the real judge puts Nephthys as one of the two options, and then they get lynched.

This would be great

[ND]

Well I encourage everyone to look at my part 2 and tell me straight where I am wrong. This is an important phase and we need to get it right. Hedge answers are BS and useless. If someone seriously townreads ET then tell me why. I don't see it.

[teacon7]

@Neph - when you claimed, you claimed "PR" not "judge" .... why?

He did in fact claim Judge later on...

Yes. I'm curious why the first thing he said was "PR." Why did it take so long to say "judge" ?

[teacon7]

@Neph - why did you pick to judge between espresso and et?

[ND]

@Teacon: Since you are online. What do you think about ET and my case?

[ChippeRock]

@Neph - when you claimed, you claimed "PR" not "judge" .... why?

He did in fact claim Judge later on...

Yes. I'm curious why the first thing he said was "PR." Why did it take so long to say "judge" ?

He could be the Innocent Child as well if he claims PR - keeps Mafia off its toes as to whether they're lynching someone who's important or a glorified VT.

[ChippeRock]

Honestly though, I feel like one of these 3 claims going around are scum claims. They odds are relatively good that Tom was one of those three roles, and they knew they wouldn't get CCed by anyone.

[Nephthys]

He did in fact claim Judge later on...

Yes. I'm curious why the first thing he said was "PR." Why did it take so long to say "judge" ?

He could be the Innocent Child as well if he claims PR - keeps Mafia off its toes as to whether they're lynching someone who's important or a glorified VT.

I mean the first thing I did was claim that balki was scum lol

[Nephthys]

@Neph - why did you pick to judge between espresso and et?

I wanted to force people to think about those the hadn't and I personally was suspect of both.

Other fun people I considered were rdr and Balki. Just shows how bad my early game was.

[Durga]

Honestly though, I feel like one of these 3 claims going around are scum claims. They odds are relatively good that Tom was one of those three roles, and they knew they wouldn't get CCed by anyone.

Uhh... All three claims are connected to each other. That would be pretty wild.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@ND, I find your case hard to follow and respond to. It is basically just a narrative description of what ET has done in the game with an extra sentence here or there to paint it with a scum gloss.

It would be more effective if you present three reasons why you think ET is scum, and you quote or cite to evidence.

The problem with your analysis is that you don’t consider the reasons that a Town!ETmight do the things you mention. There are a lot of reasons I can think of for a Town!ET to engage with Squigs and Durga and repeat your skepticism of Foxy Knoxy based on TrPrado posts. All you do is say what he’s done, and present a scum reason to do the same thing. You don’t consider the town reasons and weigh which one is more likely.

You have proven to me that you’ve taken the time to read an ISO, that you don’t want Xorxes lynched, and little else.

[Squigs44]

Players in my POE:
FlaviusAetius
FoxCastle
Xorxes
Percy
et
teacon
ND
damo
peter
connor

We need 6/10 for the full scumteam.

Does teacon, Xorxes, ND, connor, peter, damo make sense?

et doesn't fit with ND, the Percy/Xorxes interaction is strange, and Flav and Fox have had so many people pushing on them that it is simplest if they are both town. Out of Flav/Fox, Flav is more likely scum imo, he could replace connor/peter/damo possibly.

Thinking through full teams, it is hard to put a team together without teacon on the team, so I would be willing to lynch him if things went that way. The Percy/Xorxes interaction is giving me a lot of hesitation on both of them.

I don't know, 5 lurkers plus Xorxes? I am pretty sure Fox is scum. Percy is making me mad as each time I re-read him I change my mind.

ND isn't lurking. I suppose it could be Fox or Flav in there, but I'd have to look at who is pushing who to see if the they can fit in any 6 man team.

[teacon7]

@Teacon: Since you are online. What do you think about ET and my case?

I'm townreading et for some of the same reasons you're scumreading him. You said he's just going with the flow with whatever the dominant conversation is. I'm going to have to reread him in context (rather than iso) with that in mind, as that may well be true - what's original from et? Good q for a reread. For now, he's still a *slight* townread b/c he behaviorally looks like he's trying to make sense of the game. hm.

[et]

@et

You asked for a list of what I am thinking so far. Keep in mind that these reads largely miss out on n1-n2 (I still haven't had a chance to read those 80-some pages in the middle of the game), so I'm operating with incomplete information.

BLIND ASSASSIN:
Balki - I'm fairly sure he's the SK. If he's not, the real SK had better kill him. no point in going down the line of thinking where he's lying.

Mechanically TOWN:
teacon7 - You don't know this of course, but as we gain clears this list will increase. I don't think I'm playing a very good game, so I'm actually surprisd more people aren't scumreading me. Looks like I might become a convenient target lynch target here in the near future, so please if you're town glean everything you can from how people talk at/about me.

99% TOWN:
rdrivera - There's very little chance scum would claim the way he did. Pursuing an alternate scenario requires a lot of tinfoil that I don't have time for right now.

very likely TOWN:
Durga - Her reactions and investigations have seemed really towny to me. The reactions and frustratiosn seem natural. her concern when I posted elsewhere read as "concerned town." If she's scum, she's scum with ND and the mafQT looks hilarious, because they've not been fighting about things here in the main thread. I have varying levels of townread on both rn, so that's a non-issue right now.

very slight TOWN:
Chippe - his early "proof" that he's vt looked silly. I don't believe for a minute that we should conclude that he was actually proving he was VT. That said, we can't know anything from what he said, since scum could post the same thing he did. We have town PR who can verify their role, so stunts like his are fundamentally NAI. Let's just leave it at that. His actions since have looked like he's trying to figure out the game, and while I don't agree with him on a lot of stuff.
ND - I don't like his tone, but when he's around he looks like he's trying to find scum. If he's scum, he's scum with durga, since they've NOT been at each other's throats. Either way, they're probably the same alignment.
et - I'm reading his behavior as towny, seeking information and looking to learn from people. He's demonstrating that he reads/understands more than he talks. That may be due to a language barrier, but I'm not so sure how he'd understand the thread but still post so very concisely. I don't want to be rude about it, but there's a disparity between understanding level and post level here, so that's why he's a "slight" townread.
flav - I've never seen him play as scum. My only experience was scumreading a town-flav. I wanted to learn from last game to overlook tone and watch behavior. flav does look like he's looking for scum. I don't always understand the logic he's making, but after a while it makes some sense (i.e., his discussion about how we "know" about who killed whom looks like he doesn't realize that maf have an extra kill in the assassin, or that there was a modkill.) He's lost a little bit of the newbie act from last game, which is about proportional to the # of games he's played. I'd say that between this game and last he looks to be doing a lot less sheeping, and a lot more of his own independent thinking. That's actually AI, hopefully towny AI, and imo is an improvement for him as a player overall regardless of his alignment this game. I do think though that the "balki is a good player" thing from much earlier could have been an early slip - flav isn't the scum secretary, but someone else (xorx?) could be.

A note: I could be wrong on the townreads. I'm letting you know who seems towny to me. I've been wrong about things before, and there's something I'm not seeing. I'm probably pretty deceivable when it comes to reads, as someone who looks solvy therefore looks towny to me. That can't always be the case, as peopel like ND or Durga or squigs are imho capable of looking solvey as scum. We can't know anything for sure until we have mechanically cleared players. That said this is the gamestate I'm imaginging right now.

NULL: (not enough info to tell. tbh I can sympathize because the game is still really big, but that's becoming less and less of an excuse.)
connor - I have no idea. new. overwhelmed by reading. He needs to show up more.
damo - I legitimately forgot he was playing. Is this like town damo or scum damo?
Percy - I don't really remember anything he's done or posted. He's weighed in on points about as much as I've seen before. iirc, he's in a totally different time zone than me, so I'm not surprised we've not seen each other. need to ISO him, which... shouldn't take too long.
peterlund - subbed in for moscow. I scumread moscow's d1 post, but that's not really a lot to go on. He's the "scummiest" of my nulls.

WASH: ("wash" here means "some scum points and some town points that cancel each other" ... it's not a null read because there's amplitude to the reads in both directions, but functionally means "I don't know")
squigs - He was pretty active d1, and then I went on a trip and when I cam back squigs was posting in a radically different way. I don't mean "posting less" so much as "what he's trying to do is different." d1 I actually thought he might be the BA. Now, I'm not so sure, and have to re-think things.

Slight SCUM:
Nephthys - I really didn't like anything I've seen neph say. I scumread him much earlier in the game for largely playing by throwing shade, rather than asking questions and parsing the game. He's since claimed, and I don't know what to make of htat. His claim is dependent on balki's claim, which in turn is dependent on rdr's claim, which.... you see where this is going. I wouldn't lynch him today, but I won't say he's safe until we have confirmation. His reaction to balki and his claim looked like he was really nervious. I'm also not sure what to make of his later post about "you guys have to accept my claim" ... did we doubt you, neph? Are you trying to convince us? Are you scum and were you expecting a CC from the real PR? I'm not sure what to make of it. Why didn't NEPH claim a specific role?

LIKELY SCUM
Foxcastle - He's played by putting major shade on people, but hasn't seemed like he's been trying to solve the game or probe for info or find scum. I've been meaning to ISO him to show what I mean, but I'm trying to catch up reading/skimming first. What has fox actually DONE this game that contributed independent thought?
xorxes - xorx has been uncharictaristically quiet. I don't like that. I'll grant that it's a big game and that he's probably tired from the last one. I didn't like that his early post mentioned me and that he hasn't interacted since. What's the deal? I liked what I've seen of his play n2-d3, though he seems a lot lot lot less solvy and moe like: "I'm going to skate by talking about mechanics and obvious things" rather than "I'm going to try to solve the game." This is far different than last game, even the last game where he got tunnel vision on me after being pretty solvy. The problem with me saying this is that I a) don't want to get into another big fight with xorx again because it wasn't helpful for town last time, and b) saying "xorx should be here more" is an argument from silence. Xorx being gone is only very very slightly AI, because he could be lurking PR or busy IRL or something. Thing is... lurking is more AI in this game than we really want to admit. We don't lynch lurkers as often because we know an argument from silence (arguing on the lack of expected evidence, rather than the presence of evidence) is a much poorer argument IRL than in this game.

If I had to put a scumteam together in order of descending scumminess, I'd say it's likely:

foxcastle, xorx, squigs, and 2-3 of the 4 "nulls" from above. Neph is a special case that I don't know how to handle, but he's on the team when I put together a scumteam in my head, he's on it. .

Thanks you very detailed list.
And ok about my language.
I may not understand semantic baggage.
That's true.

[teacon7]

Hot take - Balki and xorxes are town since scum likely shot someone was strongly acting as VT rather than PR and those two would definitely be shooting for PR N1.

Boom. In tinfoil land, Tom is the Reporter and crumbed in this post.

I still don't believe rdriv do this - a) why would scum sacrifice a widely townread player for the sake of a fake claim? b) scum is close to winning anyway, why bother fake claiming here?

[teacon7]

@Neph - why did you pick to judge between espresso and et?

I wanted to force people to think about those the hadn't and I personally was suspect of both.

Other fun people I considered were rdr and Balki. Just shows how bad my early game was.

Okay but et and espresso were... not heavy posters. It's essentially forcing us to policy lynch.
Even after we reread them, what were we supposed to gain from this?
Did you gain anything from the voting patterns here?

[Durga]

Hot take - Balki and xorxes are town since scum likely shot someone was strongly acting as VT rather than PR and those two would definitely be shooting for PR N1.

Boom. In tinfoil land, Tom is the Reporter and crumbed in this post.

I still don't believe rdriv do this - a) why would scum sacrifice a widely townread player for the sake of a fake claim? b) scum is close to winning anyway, why bother fake claiming here?

What the heck are you talking about.

[teacon7]

It would be more effective if you present three reasons why you think ET is scum, and you quote or cite to evidence.

The problem with your analysis is that you don’t consider the reasons that a Town!ETmight do the things you mention. There are a lot of reasons I can think of for a Town!ET to engage with Squigs and Durga and repeat your skepticism of Foxy Knoxy based on TrPrado posts. All you do is say what he’s done, and present a scum reason to do the same thing. You don’t consider the town reasons and weigh which one is more likely.

Well I really want to give balki town points for the response here, but ... he's not town.

@ND - fwiw, he's right about the format of the argument.

@balki - i thought a couple sentences in ND's case were helpful. Do you think et is just "going with the flow" ?