MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

koalers i already spend 3 hours making a case on boat man

no way

I thought we were supposed to be buddies, no? Buddies don't leave buddies hanging like this!

Guilt-trip and participate! Don't be a shady Mafia suspect!

no

[KoalaAttack]

The Mystery of lfischl

...
...
...
crickets
...
...
...
who or what is a lfischl, again?
...
...
...
crickets
...
...
...
<sudden random thunder strike of Save Eden Campaign mega-contribution>
...
...
...
crickest
...
...
...
30 minutes past sudden self-suicide by a Confirmed-Townie Princess Neon (read, they would not expect this in Mafia Chat Discord)
...
here, this is what a lfischl looks like!

[Bonatogether]

The Mystery of Bona

- used to be my Suspect #1 once upon the time
- the overarching Town sentiment seems to be that Bona has since been cleared

- I am still a tad confused on exactly why or how?
- Their FrankenPost vote on President Eden certainly gives them a lot of brownie points, sure. But Bona strikes me as someone who would have zero issues bussing their Mafia teammates if it suited their purpose.

- But the bulk of the clearing transpired before that, and was heavily rooted in D1 wagonomics.
- From where I sit, D1 wagonomics have proven to be a weak & ineffectual method of Mafia hunting at best so far. Too much WIFOM involved.

- Further, consider Bona's noise-to-signal ration. It's completely out of whack.
- Yes, Bona makes great points at times. Bot there is so much noise.
- Which could be fishing for reactions, but then you stop and consider who else is playing.
- Do you all really think the likes of lfischl (if they are Town) or even rdrivera are reading all that? BK3K flat out said they aren't.
- So why would a veteran player like Bono continue down this path when it leads to folks being checked out?

i don't think there's such a thing as noise except in posts that are just like posting memes or whatever

they're missing my pellets of wisdom

i find it funny, but it does tamp down a lot once the game requires people to knuckle down

[KoalaAttack]

The Mystery of TheFlyingBoat

- I am still NAI on TFB based on psychological reads alone
- but here is a funny story

- once upon a time, there was an Earnest Townie who was always trying to do the right thing
- but, due to an honest mistake, they were simply always unlucky
- and ended up on the wrong side of every situation

- from The Witch Hunt of Damo, which involved amazing tinfoil logic such as assigning meaning to Alphabetization of Lists
- to The Saving of False Prophet Eden, which involved amazing lack-of-suspicion-to-Eden-as-compared-to-say-same-Damo
- just kind of in the wrong place at the wrong time all the time

- so it's a very uninspired & uncertain NAI feeling
- if how to win at this game is to be neither Town Read or Mafia Read, TFB has shown ultimate expertise in this in my own (biased) POV

[BK3K]

OK Koala. I'll do your homework. It's going to be a lot shorter than yours.

Why everyone is guilty:

• BK3K - Droopy eyed armless child
• Bonatogether - posts a lot, covering up tracks, makes it seem like adding substance when really mostly adding fluff. smoke screen?
• Bozo - Largely absent at first. Could have waited to see how the first few days shook out, then stepped up as the town leader, gaining trust for having good reads. Has mafia knowledge but not much dirty history from early days to account for. Saw through Rivera doc, which obviously so did scum chat
• Chaqa - Gets too much joy out of joking to be scum. could be reaching for ragging rights if he lays it out on the table and still wins? Only felt town to me when he agreed with me on the Neon action. Obviously we were both wrong there. Very, very hesitant to shoot Eden
• KoalaAttack - plays into the newbie role too much. clearly has a grasp of the nature of this game, yet some of the questions asked seem too naïve. playing into the "silly me, I know nothing" card too much. Offended by language/insults. You know who is known for taking things personally and reacting strongly? The Mafia. I'm on season 2 of The Sopranos, I would know
• lfischl - mostly absent, true busser of President Eden
• TheFlyingBoat - I actually read Bona's novel this time, I agree with a lot. Not much substance, consistently ending days on (now) known townies. protects ghug

No more HW assignments Koala. Thanks!

[Chaqa]

You are asking me to not be myself, Koala

[Bonatogether]

BISHKEK READ MY POST


WWWWWW

[Bonatogether]

BISHKEK REALLY IS MY BUDDY

[Bonatogether]

im so happy

[BK3K]

BISHKEK READ MY POST


WWWWWW

Calm down, i sped read it

[Bonatogether]

BISHKEK READ MY POST


WWWWWW

Calm down, i sped read it

bishkek read my post

[Bonatogether]

OK Koala. I'll do your homework. It's going to be a lot shorter than yours.

Why everyone is guilty:

• BK3K - Droopy eyed armless child
• Bonatogether - posts a lot, covering up tracks, makes it seem like adding substance when really mostly adding fluff. smoke screen?
• Bozo - Largely absent at first. Could have waited to see how the first few days shook out, then stepped up as the town leader, gaining trust for having good reads. Has mafia knowledge but not much dirty history from early days to account for. Saw through Rivera doc, which obviously so did scum chat
• Chaqa - Gets too much joy out of joking to be scum. could be reaching for ragging rights if he lays it out on the table and still wins? Only felt town to me when he agreed with me on the Neon action. Obviously we were both wrong there. Very, very hesitant to shoot Eden
• KoalaAttack - plays into the newbie role too much. clearly has a grasp of the nature of this game, yet some of the questions asked seem too naïve. playing into the "silly me, I know nothing" card too much. Offended by language/insults. You know who is known for taking things personally and reacting strongly? The Mafia. I'm on season 2 of The Sopranos, I would know
• lfischl - mostly absent, true busser of President Eden
• TheFlyingBoat - I actually read Bona's novel this time, I agree with a lot. Not much substance, consistently ending days on (now) known townies. protects ghug

No more HW assignments Koala. Thanks!

bishkek, who do you think is guilty? because there's 2 scum and 5 town and you haven't indicated who you think is in each category, you've just said 'everyone could be scum lol'

[BK3K]

OK Koala. I'll do your homework. It's going to be a lot shorter than yours.

Why everyone is guilty:

• BK3K - Droopy eyed armless child
• Bonatogether - posts a lot, covering up tracks, makes it seem like adding substance when really mostly adding fluff. smoke screen?
• Bozo - Largely absent at first. Could have waited to see how the first few days shook out, then stepped up as the town leader, gaining trust for having good reads. Has mafia knowledge but not much dirty history from early days to account for. Saw through Rivera doc, which obviously so did scum chat
• Chaqa - Gets too much joy out of joking to be scum. could be reaching for ragging rights if he lays it out on the table and still wins? Only felt town to me when he agreed with me on the Neon action. Obviously we were both wrong there. Very, very hesitant to shoot Eden
• KoalaAttack - plays into the newbie role too much. clearly has a grasp of the nature of this game, yet some of the questions asked seem too naïve. playing into the "silly me, I know nothing" card too much. Offended by language/insults. You know who is known for taking things personally and reacting strongly? The Mafia. I'm on season 2 of The Sopranos, I would know
• lfischl - mostly absent, true busser of President Eden
• TheFlyingBoat - I actually read Bona's novel this time, I agree with a lot. Not much substance, consistently ending days on (now) known townies. protects ghug

No more HW assignments Koala. Thanks!

bishkek, who do you think is guilty? because there's 2 scum and 5 town and you haven't indicated who you think is in each category, you've just said 'everyone could be scum lol'

That was precisely the HW assignment. I have people I suspect less, rather than people i hard suspect. More of a process of elimination thing.

[Bonatogether]

i get you

[bozotheclown]

OK I'm about to get dragged away and out of time.

Updated Suspect List:

(1) Chaqa
(2) President Eden
...
big gap
...
(3) lfischl
(4) Bono

TheFlyingBoat (4) bozotheclown Chaqa BK3K President Eden
President Eden (2) Bonatogether rdrivera2005
Chaqa (2) lfischl KoalaAttack
BK3K (1) TheFlyingBoat
rdrivera2005 (1) Princess Neon*

My top 2 suspects both have 2 votes currently. One of the votes against them is a vote by my other two weaker Suspects for each of them. And TFB has both my top 2 suspects voting for them.

No more sheeping. I stay on (1) Chaqa and encourage folks to vote on (2) President Eden if they don't believe the Chaqa case.

Good luck to fellow Townies, may the force be with you, catch some Mafias!

I think this is kind of suspicious also.

...
Koala's Suspects List 3.0
(1) Chaqa – <snip>
(2) Princess Neon – <snip>
(3) President Eden – I know they were on my Townie List 2.0, but are now here mainly due to very suspicious BK3K vs Koala involvement similar to Chaqa. Why would a Townie want to ride that wave together with now-proven-Mobster ghug? And here is the thing – one could ask "why did BK3K did that?" just as easily as "why did Koala reacted that way?" ... Even Bona, to Bona's credid, asked precisely that. And AFAICT, I wasn't prominent on President Eden's Suspect list beforehand – and neither was BK3K to be fair. But of course, one of us is a lot more active [badly] trying to hunt Mafias than the other (no offense BK3K)... Yeah, just feels off.
(4) Bona – <snip>

Koala's NAI List:
(5) Damo – <snip>
(6) TFB – <snip>
(7) BK3K – <snip>
(8) lfishl – <snip>

Koala's [Temporarily] Cleared of Suspicion List:
(9) & (10) – rdrivera & Bozo – I really hate having the Soulless Koala Killer and the Evil Koala Murder Ordered on here. But going by their actions this game, they seem to both be acting logically and trying to eliminate suspects. Of course, they both did that during the last game too before their koalacide... But as much as it pains me, put them here now.
(11) – brainbomb – <snip>

Going back to N2 to determine the reasons KoalaAttack was suspecting PE, I think it is interesting that KoalaAttack had rdrivera and myself as strong town reads after the ghug DK, but apparently did not give PE and town credit for DKing ghug.

Re first one – I was going to address this, as I like to address all questions that mention me. However, not trying to dodge the question, but I really don't understand what is Suspicious about that. A bit strange to see Bozo say "Suspicious" without justifications, I am used to more logic from Bozo. Hmm... Suspicious in turn?.. Anywho, if you can share what is Suspicious I will be happy to share my best take.

Re second one – every night, when I post my Suspect List, I try to summarize the "biggest signals" I have on each person within a short paragraph. Think of it as everyone has a set of weights in my mind, with Suspicious acts on one side and Townie acts on another. It's not that I didn't give President Eden credit re ghug, it's more that it was completely out-weighed by large suspicious from their involvement in the Cussing Out incident, and I was pre-occupied with that. And for rdrivera & yourself, I haven't had anything big to latch on to, so you general Mafia-hunting was indeed the "biggest signal" at the time.

You were suspecting PE but not voting for him, which could be distancing in case he was flipped.

[bozotheclown]

Anyway, I'm going to sleep on this. I will probably not post more thoughts until close to the end of the night, to avoid showing my hand to the Mafia.

Unless everyone tells me that hammering the Night is a good idea and I should do it? For now I'm assuming it's a bad idea.

Hi everyone, I have an Announcement and a Request, since we seem to have a 50-hour long Night here, I am bored and now having a lunch break with a glass of wine in hand.

Announcement: clearly, we are losing as Town, and Mafia team is taking us for a ride. This means that our existing assumptions and trajectories of thinking are either incorrect or at least "not correct enough". So I do believe we need to go back to the first principles and start from scratch.

So, I will be posting my Case against every single person left alive below. But I will not stack-rank them – to avoid tipping my hand to the Mafia as I mentioned above.

Request: I ask that everyone else does the same. If we all post our best cases against everyone else, but not stack-rank them, then once Mafia kills one of us, it proves 100% guaranteed authenticity of their thoughts to the rest, no? So this would benefit the Town as a whole.

I would suggest not posting your stack-ranking, but posting your thoughts on everyone. And I will default to Suspecting folks who do not participate or try to solve the puzzle tomorrow.

This is essentially what I have been doing N5 already. I was trying to determine if any mafia were pushing Neon to secure the mis-kill, but the mafia probably would have held back and let town run with it, which is what I would say TFB and lfischl did.

At this point I think the obvious answer is that TFB and lfischl are mafia. Ii is possible that ghug and PE were just pocketing or setting up TFB by changing their reads on him D1 because all of the wagons were town, but that does not explain what TFB has been doing recently. lfischl has not been able to explain why he told damo he would vote for PE D2, or why he wanted to save PE D4, and the way he has played this game looks very much like his last 2 games.

Also, I am confident TFB and lfischl would have realized that there was a good chance rdrivera was the doctor, and would have NKed rdrivera over Neon even if they thought Neon was more likely the doctor. Considering Neon's reads, they probably would have even NKed rdrivera over Neon if they thought Neon was the doctor, but in that case they would have RBed Neon.

[bozotheclown]

This is going to sound really pathetic...but I just don't know who the last three can be.

D1
Final Vote Count:
BunnyGo (9) brainbomb, Fluminator, Bonatog​ether, damo666, BK3K, TheFlyingBoat, KoalaAttack, lfischl, g​hug
Bonatogether (4) swordsman3003/Neon, President Eden, BunnyGo, Chaqa
TheFlyingBoat (2) bozotheclown, rdr​ivera2005

D2
Final Vote Count:
ghug (5) rdrivera2005, brainbomb, Presiden​t Eden, damo666, bozotheclown
damo666 (3) TheFlyingBoat, B​onatogether, ghug
President Eden (2) BK3K, lfischl
BK3K (1) KoalaAttack
KoalaAtt​ack (1) Chaqa

D3
FINAL VOTE COUNT

damo666 (10) - President Eden*, Chaqa*, TheFlyingBoat, Bonatogether, Rdrivera2005, BK3K*, brainbomb, KoalaAttack, Lfischl, bozotheclown

Chaqa (1) - Prncess Neon*

TheFlyingBoat (1) - Damo666

Like I look at this and I see the team based on the votes being something like ghug/chaqa/rdr/lfischl, but I don't fully like it. Will think on it more, but I am admittedly overwhelmed with 2 jobs rn and don't really feel confident in myself rn. I'll get over it soon prolly, but I don't know how I could have been wrong there.

So I've been starting at this and the bot like a hopeless soothsayer and honestly I don't think rdr or bozo bussed ghug. I still don't get why ghug didn't force the MK on damo and maybe even stretch for one after that. I just can't figure out who goes into the rdr slot. Like why did ghug feel like he had to leave the Bona wagon for Bunny when the result was fait accompli? I don't think it is Eden bussing and Neon is apparently town based on claims, so did ghug really flip to make 3 on the primary wagon and 1 on the counter?

If so ghug/chaqa/BK3K/lfischl makes sense?

I actively have no clue who the+1 is.

Fischl or BK maybe.

Actually yeah

Chaqa/rdr or bozo/fischl or bk

I think that's the solve that makes the most sense in almost all worlds.

Within that solve, I would easily go with Chaqa / RDR / lfischl.

Idk if I’m really down with this solve yet though.
Is your apparently pretty strong townread on TFB the product of anything particular that he’s done since you joined? I know you got to him being town based on wagons but I’m curious if anything piqued your curiosity since. (Also, how did you get there via wagons - I felt good about TFB for a while by consequence of believing damo mafia, but not through anything wagon-specific that I think you’d have seen without context)

We only have one miskill left, right?

Correct. That’s why I was asking about narrowing the POE to four earlier

I think mine would be something like Chaqa, TFB, BK, and Rdr

I think these D4 read posts fit with TFB and lfischl being mafia, and PE being the mafia they were trying to get through to the end, with TFB and lfischl suspecting each other and PE suspecting both. Also, the common suspicion of BK3K, Chaqa, and rdrivera is explained by them being the players the mafia decided to target for mis-kills.

[KoalaAttack]

OK Koala. I'll do your homework. It's going to be a lot shorter than yours.

Why everyone is guilty:

• BK3K - Droopy eyed armless child
• Bonatogether - posts a lot, covering up tracks, makes it seem like adding substance when really mostly adding fluff. smoke screen?
• Bozo - Largely absent at first. Could have waited to see how the first few days shook out, then stepped up as the town leader, gaining trust for having good reads. Has mafia knowledge but not much dirty history from early days to account for. Saw through Rivera doc, which obviously so did scum chat
• Chaqa - Gets too much joy out of joking to be scum. could be reaching for ragging rights if he lays it out on the table and still wins? Only felt town to me when he agreed with me on the Neon action. Obviously we were both wrong there. Very, very hesitant to shoot Eden
• KoalaAttack - plays into the newbie role too much. clearly has a grasp of the nature of this game, yet some of the questions asked seem too naïve. playing into the "silly me, I know nothing" card too much. Offended by language/insults. You know who is known for taking things personally and reacting strongly? The Mafia. I'm on season 2 of The Sopranos, I would know
• lfischl - mostly absent, true busser of President Eden
• TheFlyingBoat - I actually read Bona's novel this time, I agree with a lot. Not much substance, consistently ending days on (now) known townies. protects ghug

No more HW assignments Koala. Thanks!

Thank you for doing this exercise! No more homework, promise :)

Re your Suspicions on me, I think they are very reasonable and make sense. I admit/confess to intentionally playing the "I am new card" as a cover to ask a myriad questions. But I think asking a myriad questions and watching how others respond to them is good thing for us as a town – especially when you get different takes from different veteran players on "what's the best strategy here". As for the Cussing Out incident, my reaction was real but I realize there is no way to prove that to you until you die or the game ends and you can read my Player Submitted Thoughts in the ghost Discord server. Is Sopranos good, it's been in my queue forever?

[KoalaAttack]

Re first one – I was going to address this, as I like to address all questions that mention me. However, not trying to dodge the question, but I really don't understand what is Suspicious about that. A bit strange to see Bozo say "Suspicious" without justifications, I am used to more logic from Bozo. Hmm... Suspicious in turn?.. Anywho, if you can share what is Suspicious I will be happy to share my best take.

You were suspecting PE but not voting for him, which could be distancing in case he was flipped.

Ahh, I see. Yes, that makes sense. All I can say is I suspected Chaqa even more at the time. I was trying to use my 1 vote against 2 people while not being around for EOD. Probably a foolish attempt, now I know not to do that as it causes Suspicion.

[TheFlyingBoat]

so i know yall loved my case on eden, and so due to popular request, i'll be making a case on everyone's favorite PBY Catalina Flying Boat

<snip>

it should deeply alarm you that you and Boat are voting for the same person

I'm sorry but how is voting for the same person 25 hours out when that person has largely been inactive alarming? I think you're misguided town for now, but this seems like a picture-perfect replica of how I railroaded durga when I when I was scum: throw out some of the most inane sus coupled with ~~vibes~~ to get a targeted name out there 20-30 hours ahead of time and then start up a gaslight powered wagon before powering it through at the end of the day.

narrator voice: this is exactly what eden did and boat man helped with

I only mention Damo for the first time with 4 hours left to go in D1. Eden RVSes him but doesn't actually sus him at all until after I cast my vote on him at which point he hops on the wagon before deciding you're the person he wants gone most. And no offense to Damo, but he's not in the same ballpark as Durga in terms of town skill at this game.

Did the opening post not say the game starts on Monday barring like a catastrophic numbers shortage? Am I on crazy pills? How did so many people not know the game had begun?

unironically only scum and bozo read the OP on webdip

You've literally argued this to me when I was town before. Iirc the last time was either the Papers Please game or the game before that.

Yes, I have read everything.

As far as I can tell, Chaqa is being voted for claiming to be mafia, you are the only Bonatogether voter who suspects him, Fluminator is town, and I am not sure why TFB is still voting swordsman. BunnyGo does appear to have 2 voters who suspect him, but I do not see why he is particularly suspicious so far.

I implied I'd move on when swords gave me an independent thought and he still hasn't yet. Why would I move for now? I could vote Chaqa for being a dumbass with the joke scum claim, but that doesn't seem to do much good. Bona is so obviously town, I see no reason to go there. I am not going to vote the Vig.

The reason there is no traction on any wagon is that imo every wagon sucks.

As for my vote, Swords fancies himself to be a good psycho analyst on his website, so I want to see some of the brought to play here. I could pressure Bungo but people seem to be interested in him as is and he seems to be giving something I can analyze with greater context.

if chaqa is town, then this post could reflect a scum unsure of where to put a vote down due to no scum on the block.

There was plenty of time left in the day at the time of this comment and you saw as scum I had no problem a) voting for scum before it mattered on D1 and b) putting feelers and testers for wagons I think are pro-scum to push. If I am scum, why not push for a miskill of a player more familiar with mafia?

Why is bona obviously town?

Because Bona's shitposting seemed like town!bona not like scum!bona (though admittedly M65 (when I last recall Bona being scum from a previous game's ISO) was a long time ago). Also town!Bona voting a confirmed townie for being anti-town is the most town!Bona thing ever. I think his answers to Koala early were good and I think the way he pushed Eden and BK3K seemed pretty towny. Like straight up I feel like Bona radiates town vibes rn.

trying to keep me alive (he doesn't know i'm going to catch eden)
also this post is literally an extended way of saying 'vibes but idrr what he's like as scum lol'

I kept you alive hoping you'd catch scum you ding dong. And yeah vibes from RVS stage isn't bad lol.

Brain, no one is required to play on your standards. This game have 48 hours phases for a reason, you could easily be not available for long periods of time. As someone that missed the first night in the last two games and almost missed this one too I would say it is totally acceptable to miss it and I don't think I am being disrespectful with the game or with other players. I can't and I won´t post over 100 posts a phase and if this was a requirement I wouldn't have signed.

If you think someone is lurking on purpose or being oblivious because they are scum you just DK them.

Oh come the fuck on, in what world is this not a defensive response to brain's criticism of you?

Like in M72, you get shaded by Durga, kgray, and myself for not contributing enough and for being away/not meeting desired activity levels and your response then was just to move on and keep playing.

In M73, Jamie calls you out directly for it and you tell him that you're town and move on.

Since when was your response to getting called out to OMGUS?

further rdr shade

Confusing a PR for scum is a tale as old as time while hunting. No shame here for me at all even though I was ultimately wrong on alignment. You're better than this Bona.

Spicy

Elaborate

Maybe in a bit

he's around for the next hour at least but just declines to explain a vote that lasts until t-0:02.

Huh I explain it like an hour later?

Does he seem bored? A little.

Does his math suck? A lot

You may be on to something

Precisely! And his alphabetical reads list!

riding town bungus' thoughts to make a wagon he can't be blamed for because he hasn't explained anything

Uh I pretty loudly claim responsibility for the wagon on D2. If my goal was to ride town thoughts and abandon responsibility why did I push so hard for it later and accept responsibility and publicly admit I was lost? When did I not proudly claim the Damo vote?

Yeah it's great scum play to do a fake readlist day 1

This is WIFOM and you know it

self-explanatory

I don't think it is. At the very least it's hard to argue I wasn't pushing this given how much I engage with Damo's nonsense during this time.

It could be confirmation bias, but why you choose a readlist from M72 instead of one from last game that was so bad I used it to justify a tunnel on him? I feel like you are doing the same as what I did as scum.

Because I played in M72????

rdrposting goes hard

It's a response to a question? It feels like you've assumed I am scum and am trying to find some of the worst post hoc reasoning possible for it.

It's day ONE. I bet you are not comparing like with like.

Scum (alpha): viewtopic.php?p=320131#p320131

Scum (alpha): viewtopic.php?p=273446#p273446

Town (ordered, though in response to a bozo survey): http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 47#p248247

I mean I did a quick perusal of games going back to M69 and the only times you ever seem to give full reads lists D1 are when you're scum (both times alphabetized) or in response to a survey (in which case you gave it ordered).

people like eden gave this post a lot of towncred but it doesn't actually explain what's SAI about it. also boat man doesn't really like push this in a big way like i'd expect him to if he were town

The argument which was made upthread is this is a fake attempt to contribute he never does as town and often does as scum. It's pretty straightforward and laid out in a short post so you can't even blame me for it being tl;dr.

So you've just decided I'm scum? Or are you scum driving a mk to save yourself?

Are you high? This might be so braindead of a response that I'll be forced to consider you town.

now we're wrapping around to the other side?

lolwut?

Chaqa and Bona are terrible wagons imo, Chaqa is probably town trolling and Bona is def town.

Vote Damo

this post and the others like it don't count as pulling for the damo wagon

What more do you want me to do? It's literally an exhortation coupled with calling for the top wagons to be abandoned.

where did the bungo wagon come from?

##vote bunny

Better bunny than bona, but it should be damo

these posts are 2 minutes apart

Yes, and? I stand by my call here.

I found bona's flailing at the end quite townie fwiw. I would lean towards that being a town vs. town there

Agreed. I find the way the damo wagon died highly suspect though.

The wagon was me, you, bunny, and ghug.
I'm going to assume you don't find me, bunny, or yourself suspicious?

Right, so I guess that only leaves Ghug, but I don't feel like Ghug is scum. Maybe it was right but lacked traction because no scum would touch it?

town boat man wouldn't back down over this
scum boat man is realizing he just put himself in a position where he can only bus

No, you're right this does look bad given how ghug flipped. I just got pocketed and outplayed for late D1 and early D2 plain and simple. It wasn't until how he handled Damo that I started to believe he was scum, which turned out to be right for the wrong reasons, while flum here was right for the right reasons.

Agree about Bonq but still waiting an answer on the map of who is what.

On my POV D1 is more of a popularity contest and anyone that is out of the usual way to play like Bona or Bunny or Chaqa usually end being a wagon.

Very busy with work rn so I can’t give a full wall post readlist like I would like to do. But from the D1, I’ve come to believe that Bona is strongly town, PE is very likely town, Brain, Koala, ghug, and Chaqa, strike me as lean town.

To me the scum team is:

Damo
Swords
BK3K
And then for the final spot either I’m wrong in ghug, one of you/bozo is scum, or lfischl is which I don’t think he is rn

a running theme is the just confident incorrectness and uninspired scumreads that never gets corrected. as far as things have been revealed, boat man has never ended on a correct vote. in fact, on every day, he's wanted to (sometimes circumstances have made it so he couldn't) end on damo or lfischl. what a stunning hit list of votes!

I mean I am generally a fairly confident person and was until I was shaken by Damo flipping town. That was a case I truly believed in harder than just about any case I've pushed and was wrong, plain and simple. As for lfischl, I do think I was right there still and given I thought both PE was clearly town, I think my logic is understandable as to why I tried to rally an lfischl counterwagon.

VCA and more

BK3 - voting all over the place TI, Vote to put Bunny 5-3 NAI, vibes town: TOWNLEAN

Bona - the Bunny vote tying with himself is obviously NAI, didn't care for the spam, seems to be popularly read as town: NULL+

Bozo - voted TFB only: NULL as ever

brain - vote for bunny introduced Bunny to the frame, weakening townvibes: NULL+

Chaqa - avoided voting Bunny NAI, his doubting my sincerity in believing him to be town is from a town pov only serves to increase my assumption he is: TOWN

damo : TOWN

Flum: TOWN

ghug: the late Bunny vote seems entirely inappropriate as scum so gonna go out on a limb and say: TOWN

Koala: his Bunny vote might be a scum ensure the kill vote but his overall demeanour is very town so: TOWNLEAN

lfischl: the ate Bunny vote seems unnecessary (like ghug's) but it is fish so : NULL

PE: Not a lot to glean from votes (yet): NULL

rdr: Only voted TFB, seems very townrdr to me: STRONG TOWNLEAN

sword: virtual no info to go on: NULL

TFB: vote to put Bunny 6-4 up with 2 minutes to go is NAI, tunnel on me ludicrous but for some reason seems to be gaining traction: NULL

Current guess*: fish PE sword TFB

Other possibilities: Bozo brain and just maybe Bona

Amusingly this contains no Bs so maybe 3 plus one of the Others.

rereading this and I just have to say, what the fuck is this?

The VCA is basically all NAI or Null besides ghug, who you think is town because there is no reason to switch that late as scum and Koala whose vote seemed scummy to you, but is otherwise townie to you? Why even call it VCA and more when it is really just a sparse readlist?

As for ghug, I think your analysis is off as there is reason for scum!ghug to switch. If he wants to alter scum allocations on any wagon then he has very good reason to change. Not saying he is scum, but just saying that you shouldn't town read the vote.

well for one he actually has a fair amount of reads, even if the reasoning and VCA is somewhere between lackluster and nonexistent, so this first paragraph is just a lie

secondly, he's shooting down ghug townreads because of reasons to scumread ghug but being careful to say that HE doesn't scumread ghug. feels like trying to manage a partner's position

I don't think you're even reading it anymore, instead just skimming it and making it up as you go. I said it's a sparse readslist because it is one. It's a largely airy readslist with no justifications or explanations just labels for alignments. That is bad because it allows for all realms of post-hoc arguments as to why he thought x, y, or z given that there is nothing to firmly ground him anywhere.

As for the latter read on later where I do make a scum pairing involving him

Here is a question for everyone (not a survey). Which is the most likely scenario:

1. Bonatogether and damo are mafia bussing each other.

2. PE and ghug are mafia leading mis-kills of Bonatogether and damo.

3. The mafia are watching town vote for each other and consist primarily of BK3K, lfischl, rdrivera, and swordsman.

4. none of the above

1) not likely imo, I think Bona is town and damo is scum

2) PE I think is town, ghug might be mafia, but I have some reasons i doubt that which I'll get into in a moment. As for Bona/Damo see 1).

3) I think it is plausible there are 1-3 scum in 3) coupled with Damo.

now we're at 'ghug is scum' but he rejects the truth that we were just in world 2. props to bozo for that

Yes, I was confident and wrong. It happens.

Unfortunately I've been roped into something that's likely to take up a big part of the remaining day. I think I'll be able to keep an eye on things and I think I'll be around for EOD, but not sure yet.

I don't think much of anything has changed about the game state. I won't vote rdr, bozo, brain, Bona and probably won't vote BK. damo is my top preference, then ghug, then after that it's a bit hazy. Based on how today has gone I'm pretty confident damo and ghug are mafia, and the mafia has struggled to figure out how to attack a day where the wagons have been locked on to multiple scum all day long. My initial case on damo remains undisputed, and he's now just flailing around right now trying to find anything that will work to get him and ghug out of today - which is why he landed on lfischl (who is basically just a lurker rand vote - and note how ghug picked lfischl too!) but immediately and shamelessly followed lfischl's hint that he might vote me.

Like this post and makes me more confident you're town, but why wouldn't ghug call a hard bus right now instead of equivocating and being wishy-washy? I feel like scum ghug would try stop the bleeding and cut damo loose here. The only explanation I can think of that explains why ghug is waiting and trying to see if there is a way to save damo is if the other two scum buddies are mega inactive lurkers and/or people ghug doesn't trust to lead the game to a successful end after he racks up a couple miskills for scum before getting caught.

defending ghug to the bitter end

Yes, I was wrong. And? I will point out in the bottom I did give an explanation as to where it makes sense for him to be mafia

okay this damo-ghug+2 lurkers or newbie+lurker set it islooking way more plausible to me rn

but then with no explanation he flips over to ghug being scum, with minutes left on ghug's lease on life

Mate the bottom of the posts explains it

Considering the primary reason I suspected ghug was mafia is because he did everything he could to keep you from getting DKed D1 after voting for you early D1 and saying you were "clearly scum", you are going to have to do something that makes it clear to me you are town for me to stop suspecting you are one of ghug's teammates.

When ghug and damo became the top wagons, you and PE were already voting for damo, so if you and PE are mafia, you are right about the "inability for scum to maneuver" part, but not about the "unwillingness to hard bus".

Right but you don't answer the question about ghug. Why is ghug not wagoning Damo to death? He shaded him and it was clear PE and I were not going to let him go (until PE did ).

It would not have been a new read for him, given that damo was one of his 5 targets and would allow him to look pretty good as a bunch of people were on the fence about him already as is. Like yes, some people would wonder why ghug is still alive Day 4, but surely then, if he trusted his teammates, he would have been comfortable going there after forcing another miskill or 2.

Instead his unwillingness to vote Damo for large parts of the day became highly suspicious and in tandem with what happened D1/N1, caused me and others to consider the possibility they may be a pair.

Ghug is a smart guy. Why does he do this?

rethinking his damo read. actually a decent post

he has like 5 posts in all of d3

Thank you

Wtf…in what world was that a Damo town game?

And why didn’t ghug force the easy miskill on Damo? Still at work but I’m going to do a long reread at home because this changed everything for me

suddenly confronted with the reality that he needs a new scumread. he's ended every day since this post on lfischl.

And there were numerous options to choose from, so why wouldn't I just pick from Chaqa and Swords/Neon when I saw the results would not go my way? It would not be hard to manufacture a read he.

This is going to sound really pathetic...but I just don't know who the last three can be.

D1
Final Vote Count:
BunnyGo (9) brainbomb, Fluminator, Bonatog​ether, damo666, BK3K, TheFlyingBoat, KoalaAttack, lfischl, g​hug
Bonatogether (4) swordsman3003/Neon, President Eden, BunnyGo, Chaqa
TheFlyingBoat (2) bozotheclown, rdr​ivera2005

D2
Final Vote Count:
ghug (5) rdrivera2005, brainbomb, Presiden​t Eden, damo666, bozotheclown
damo666 (3) TheFlyingBoat, B​onatogether, ghug
President Eden (2) BK3K, lfischl
BK3K (1) KoalaAttack
KoalaAtt​ack (1) Chaqa

D3
FINAL VOTE COUNT

damo666 (10) - President Eden*, Chaqa*, TheFlyingBoat, Bonatogether, Rdrivera2005, BK3K*, brainbomb, KoalaAttack, Lfischl, bozotheclown

Chaqa (1) - Prncess Neon*

TheFlyingBoat (1) - Damo666

Like I look at this and I see the team based on the votes being something like ghug/chaqa/rdr/lfischl, but I don't fully like it. Will think on it more, but I am admittedly overwhelmed with 2 jobs rn and don't really feel confident in myself rn. I'll get over it soon prolly, but I don't know how I could have been wrong there.

town boat man usually is a big solver, and while he's said he's been swamped with work, which is respectable, i struggle to believe that this is the best he can come up with. he literally just says idk and gives a list of 4 that doesn't make sense at all. there's just nothing here.

It isn't the best I can do. I work two jobs and real work is rough and has me coding for like 80 hours last week and this week and then on top of that I had an ice cream pop up which took a ton of time and focus as well. Been free for one night this past week and a bit and used it hang out with friends, a decision I stand by. It is shit and I know it hence me bemoaning my availability publicly

@boat man vote eden

No

cringe

Oops

Wow I must be some kind of idiot. I can’t read anything or anyone. Not going to be on much at all until maybe 10pm since I’m going to a sour beer night. Won’t be on early tomorrow as I’m doing an ice cream pop up as well. I’ll sheep bozo or someone

post-eden flip, boat man is confronted with again being unable to recognize scum and that his reads have been totally off-base. however, he just doesn't readjust the rest of his reads.

The reads are someway different for those post-Damo flip lists. But yeah I admit this game I have not been able to follow along as tightly and therefore have made a ton of mistakes.

Wtf??? I come back from a successful pop-up only to find out that y'all hammered Neon?!? It was pretty clear imo from their play that they were town and we wasted a valuable MK. And just because it is meta here that hardclaim lies=death doesn't mean it is elsewhere and we KNOW that Neon is active elsewhere and inherits a meta from there based on everything they said.

this post is why i started like really scumreading boat man at all. neon wasn't clearly town at all, and to claim that because neon wasn't from here justifies ignoring that she falsely hardclaimed is just wrong. this take reads very inauthentic and overall just heavily based on post-facto considerations. everything is clear the hour after the flip, especially when you weren't around.

tl;dr for you schmucks
boat man is scum because he can't come up with scumreads to save his life (every day he has either ended or wanted to end on damo or lfischl), he has no solving wallposts like meta, and also he avoids claiming credit for the damo wagon d1 by instead trying to shunt it off to bongo

#swingallsubs and always target fake hard claims might be meta here, but it isn't everywhere and I think if you actually look at what Neon said you'll see why I thought what I did.