M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[BusinessLamp]

I voted for Kakarroto because Kakarroto and celaph were tied with less than 1 minute left.

lol right, i feel like the association being drawn here isn't taking the actual situation into account. it's lazy

[damo666]

Hang on, consider what PE's 65%-70% Bozo town means. If it means what people think it seems to mean surely he should have said something like 85%-90%?

Apols Eden if you were trying to draw a nk. Mind you, scum will be paranoid now so will prob nk you anyway.

Bit of a doctor's dilemma innit?

[Or PE miscalculated]

Amended my last rant to also thank damo for actually doing what I was hoping town would do.

I demoted him to 65-70 because I was trying to also account for the fact that bozo behaved suspiciously this game. I am not actually a math guy so I don’t know how much weight to assign that behavior, so concededly 65-70% is a bit arbitrary. But it conveys the trend that I mean to convey — that his baseline is 92.3% town by totally random chance and through his actions he’s reduced that likelihood.

Put another way, by random chance he is 7.7% to be Godfather, but because he’s suspicious it’s more like 30-35%.

Ok. Think you're overstretching the GF possibility but ofc it's guesswork. Shame you've been outed.

[damo666]

is everything im posting right now going to be lost among some PR discussion i havent read yet lol

There's a 54.5% chance of that happening but do your best anyway.

[Jamiet99uk]

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

Ok well I get that you tried.

For me, I just don't like it when people say things and then refuse to explain. Triggers me every time. I am sorry about that.

Why do you scumread Maniac?
I've asked you this four times now.

[Jamiet99uk]

(FWIW I immediately discounted your Page 1 hardclaim because it was accompanied by a shitty vote on me. True story.)

[Chaqa]

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

so my situation was that i came into the thread with 10 min left with no idea of what the vote count was. IIRC there wasnt really an up to date one readily available, it took effort to figure out. because i wasn't able to follow the events of the last hour, i wanted to just sit back and let the votes go wherever without influencing anything. however, you voted celaph, and people said it was tied. and i honestly don't remember exactly but i think i was just refreshing madly seeing what would happen and staring at the clock. and then when bozo's vote for kak came in i just piled on to that to combat one other person following your lead and it becoming another tie. plus i was sus of you at that time so that made me feel ok voting opposite. i did see celaph's "if i die" post and thought it was different from last time, too. it was stressful lol

i think if i'm scum there, even if celaph is also scum, i just lurk and don't vote. playing as mafia is fun and i wouldn't want to risk my experience for my partner who is under heat day one, lol.

Are you not aware of the Peterbot?

[Chaqa]

honestly a bit sus to me that chaqa gave into the pressure of people asking him to do the "what if celaph is scum" "what if celaph is town" analysis instead of just continuing to be lazy LOL

As I said before, I couldn't do the analysis until I was done with work.

[President Eden]

Sorry I was being too quick and lazy. I just did 100-(3/14) but I realise that's not right.

How do you get 90%?

After N1, we lost 2 townies out of a starting 15. I am a third. So there are 12 townies and 1 Godfather who could return innocent. 12/13.

Miller.

Good catch. So actually it’s supposed to be 11/12, which reduces the percentage to 91.7%.

Point being… that’s a very strong baseline reason to think bozo is town, certainly worth pointing out. Even assigning considerable weight to the fact that bozo is suspicious, the default presumption from my info should be that he’s town. Certainly we shouldn’t kill him unless the Godfather doesn’t flip for a while and we have no other leads at all.

I tried to include this info carefully so it would be discoverable upon death or curiosity but not require me to explicitly out myself as cop. Unfortunately my presumed teammates didn’t want to play ball for reasons that are still a total mystery to me.

@Lamp — sorry that I drowned out what you were saying. Concededly this isn’t a very productive conversation.

[BusinessLamp]

Why is sabi tier 1?

kind of hardcore doubt they actually go to all the trouble of spreadsheeting like this if they’re mafia. concededly there’s no reason they can’t have, but in my mind it’s a very low probability.

and I think they have been trying to solve the game in their own way. as we’ve seen in the past, their way is unfortunately easily replicated as mafia. but I think it’s genuine.

see, but imagine the scenario where sabi draws mafia again right after having an amazing mafia game. they'd have to know that in order to pull it off again, they're going to have to put in an extraordinant amount of effort and pull out all the stops. including the pity card of "you're all just voting me because i played well," including the spreadsheets, etc. Sabi strikes me as someone hyper-competitive-- apparently they sandbagged old games in order to have a good mafia one. Playing as mafia seems to be their main draw to the game, so I have no doubt they'd go to whatever trouble. so i don't think effort should be the way to determine their role, moreso motive behind their actions

[President Eden]

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

Ok well I get that you tried.

For me, I just don't like it when people say things and then refuse to explain. Triggers me every time. I am sorry about that.

Why do you scumread Maniac?
I've asked you this four times now.

I’ll try to get to this before EOD. The rest of my morning will probably be busy, but I arranged to work from home this afternoon.

Yes I chose the least productive possible thing to talk about in my limited time…

[BusinessLamp]

Are you not aware of the Peterbot?

i am like technically aware of it but never think to use it lol. i was also in the middle of a Zoom game on my computer and only looking at the thread on mobile

[President Eden]

to try to do SOMETHING useful before I go…

##VOTE TheFlyingBoat

this guy was as intensely interested as anyone else about why bozo would be town and then immediately fucked off to Narnia once it became clear what happened and hasn’t posted since

[Chaqa]

Good morning, President Eden,

woke up. saw Jamie’s message. got mad. ruminated on situation all the way to work. got more mad. don’t feel like reading game. am mad. probably cannot objectively read Chaqa or Jamie rn. have I mentioned mad.

@Jamie — to answer your specific strategy, I think making up BS reasons to townread bozo would have been orders of magnitude worse than what I did. both as a general practice in a world where there’s a Godfather and in the specific scenario where I have four people crawling up my ass about not wanting to kill bozo. I am extremely annoyed, to put it lightly, that my situation has been prominently dragged to light—AGAIN—because someone else, who also doesn’t have any of my info or perspective on the game, thinks they know enough about my situation to decide that I played it wrong and that they absolutely need to blow up my play because they personally disagree with it.

Don't be mad. I'm not trying to upset you. I was trying to make some constructive remarks.

I did not suggest "making up BS reasons". I suggested that in your place I might have gone back and looked over Bozo's posts with the assumption that they were coming from a town mindset, and including any details you noticed as a justification for a change in your read. That's not BS, that's real.

I am sorry if my remarks upset you. That was not my intention.

I promise not to kill Bozo today.

I would be grateful if you'd actually explain your read on Maniac.
Or is that a secret too?

I thought my implication was clear, albeit (deliberately) stated cryptically, in my very first comment about bozo today, where I said he had a 92.3% chance of being town by random chance, but was “>70%” to be town bearing in mind his behavior. If I’m starting from the premise of an innocent scan making him 92.3% likely to be innocent by random chance (ie, that I knew nothing about him based on his play this game, and only knew that roles had been randomly assigned), demoting him to the ballpark of 70% means that I think he’s (considerably) more likely than random to be the Godfather. That also means that but for the innocent scan, I would actually think that on balance he is guilty. Indeed, the only exonerating evidence I have is the innocent scan.

So with that in mind, why the fuck would I lie and try to spin his suspicious behavior into being not suspicious to obscure my scan? That’s actively detrimental to town because it would hurt the town’s ability to sort through what bozo had done to determine whether my scan was faulty or true. Never mind that in the context of the discussion, it would have only served to draw even more questions and attention to what I was doing. It would have been an unsatisfactory explanation, not only because it would be false, but because it would be fairly clear that I didn’t even believe it. That impacts MY credibility, and in a game with a Flipper(!) I can’t afford to do that. Indeed, having flimsy shitty reasons for not suspecting an objectively suspicious player and then going “psych I have a cop scan inno” would CERTAINLY lead to this town hanging me without a counterclaim, as traditionally heinously stupid as webDip towns are in these situations.

It makes MUCH more sense to simply declare my belief that bozo is town, assign a percentage to it that would invite people to search my ISO to figure out why I keep saying it, and then find the original comment and work out that I had scanned him innocent; OR in the alternative, have them simply go “ok whatever” and move on, as I am a universal townread and thus people have no reason to be overly concerned about what an odd townread of mine means for my alignment.

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

But no, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite happened. No one bothered to look it up. Instead, for reasons completely unexplained to this point Chaqa chose to advertise my PR soft very blatantly over and over again until I was forced to out to explain myself. That’s horrible. Then you Jamie decide to make it a topic of discussion again 9 hours later so that any mafia who happened to miss it the first time would be sure to catch the rerun.

It’s unbelievably fucking frustrating that at no point did anybody (except ghug, props to him) stop to think about any of this line of thought and just assumed there was no reason for me to make any of this play. I would think as a universal townread who had done a lot to set a pro town environment with a ton of experience in this game and superb results that maybe I would get some breathing room to play the game how I want. But no, for all Chaqa whines about people being ego invested and not letting others play their own way, what does he do when the chips are down but act exactly in accord with the behavior he allegedly despises.

Y’all ruined a good thing and sucked all drive out of me to play this game at 100% effort

I've highlighted the parts I take issue with.

My reasons are not unexplained. You were not being subtle. You were not unclear. It was blatantly obvious to me you were softing a Cop scan, and you know from experience how much shit I miss and how unperceptive I am. Therefore, it was crystal clear to me that everyone would figure it out, ESPECIALLy the mafia team who is actively looking for Cop information, which mean the cat is out of the bag.

To further my point, several others were like "wtf" and drew attention to your weird Bozo percentages:

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

That's not an answer. What distinguishes him from worcej or Rivera?

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

Uh what

@eden can you explain bozo in a serious manner beyond this 65-70% bs?

To think that it's my fault and all on me that this came out is stupid. Mafia knew, mafia would find out, and there's no reason to play all abstract and hedgy about it because you just decided to go "Bozo is town say no more fam totally a reason but tee hee let's not talk about it."

How the heck else is that supposed to be taken?

On the second highlight - bro, that is straight up cap. Where in all of this do you see ego from me? If anything, the ego is YOURS, for thinking your 69IQ play is a 200IQ play. Just crumb it in an EON post like any normal person would. instead you make it obvious and get upset when it's obvious and you've outed yourself as the Cop for no fucking reason.

[worcej]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

Humor me, why did you keep tying the vote on D1?

[BesharamSabi]

OK so here's the thing I have been sitting in for the last day or two ( I even hinted it):

The connection between pyxxy and boatman.

You may be asking, why is Sabi trying to connect them?

Well gather around the fire folks, here's another one of my maybe plausible theory:

Boatman and Pyxxy are probably as close as friends as me and Pyxxy are.

Pyxxy introduction post: no mention of possible connection with boatman but he named me.

OK maybe it's a wild coincidence but the simp analysis shows pyxxy mentioning Bona a lot.

What's the connection? Bona, boatman, pyxxy (and ghug) are all on my discord server and we are friends. Tho Bona and ghug are less close friends to pyxxy than boatman and I are.

Maybe it's wild coincidence but if you check the sheet ™ they barely interact, even in passing. They do make a joke at my expense and about my cringe humor.

Anyway that's a piece of the puzzle.

What does it mean?

Either they are scum mates or just coincidence.

Maybe out of game friendships should not have a stake in this.

Anyway I have a meeting so I can't expand on this due a couple of hours.

[BusinessLamp]

lamp and bozo look bad for the way they disappeared around SoN which is cause for suspicion as initially brought up by Snowy. Combine that with Blamp's EoD as pointed out by Chaqa and bozo's highly suspect argumentation for someone like him and it becomes hard to place them as high as Eden does. I'm not full on scum reading blamp yet, he's more middle of the pack as I said, but I do not think it makes any sense to town read bozo here

literally first night last game i stated asking if it was fair to scumread people for not posting at end of night. i'm pretty sure you think of me as a fairly competent individual, so wouldn't it stand to reason that if i was scum i would actively seek to avoid doing that? instead the situation is that i was busy, as previously stated, broke the tie on the vote, and moved on with what i was currently busy with.

[Chaqa]

(FWIW I immediately discounted your Page 1 hardclaim because it was accompanied by a shitty vote on me. True story.)

I figured it was a joke, which is why I'm still holding out hope Eden is either the Flipper or trying to bait roleblocks or kills.

[BusinessLamp]

That would be the most birdbrained play ever. Surely I hope y’all don’t think I’m that stupid

One of the reasons day one is so great for information is that scum haven’t talked to each other yet. Unless you’re Jamie, it makes bussing more challenging emotionally.

I just don’t like how you keep saying you’d be playing exactly a certain way if you were scum. There are too many unknowns for those hypotheticals to be useful unless you are scum.

this is good stuff tho I tell ya hwat

agree on ghug's first point and i think it especially applies to TFB who is a Good Guy

[Chaqa]

After N1, we lost 2 townies out of a starting 15. I am a third. So there are 12 townies and 1 Godfather who could return innocent. 12/13.

Miller.

Good catch. So actually it’s supposed to be 11/12, which reduces the percentage to 91.7%.

Point being… that’s a very strong baseline reason to think bozo is town, certainly worth pointing out. Even assigning considerable weight to the fact that bozo is suspicious, the default presumption from my info should be that he’s town. Certainly we shouldn’t kill him unless the Godfather doesn’t flip for a while and we have no other leads at all.

I tried to include this info carefully so it would be discoverable upon death or curiosity but not require me to explicitly out myself as cop. Unfortunately my presumed teammates didn’t want to play ball for reasons that are still a total mystery to me.

@Lamp — sorry that I drowned out what you were saying. Concededly this isn’t a very productive conversation.

I am so fucking over you blaming me for this. Get over yourself.

[President Eden]

Chaqa what you did served literally no town purpose. Even if you think what I was doing was obvious, what you did increased the chance that mafia figured it out, for literally zero gain to town. This despite the fact that you have hardcore townread me the entire game. You did it entirely out of your own pride and conceit with no regard for how it helped the team.

Take a fucking break until you can put your silly stupid pride aside or sub the fuck out.