Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[Tom Bombadil]

##vote MeanLaQueefa

[Tom Bombadil]

@Balki - You don't buy Mean's argument at all that bozo could be scum and scum killed brain anyway to softclear bozo?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki - You don't buy Mean's argument at all that bozo could be scum and scum killed brain anyway to softclear bozo?

No. And I know MLQ doesn't believe it either. Let me pull a quote.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Here is what MLQ said on Day 3 about the Cop:

They're already at a huge disadvantage and they know they can't win if the cop lives for much longer, outing the cop is their win condition now that the witch is dead, can't you see that?

The thing is, the cop produces 1 semi-clear or 1 scum target a day, meaning that if the scum don’t get the cop out in the next couple days, there are going to be too many clears for them to ever hope to clear them all out, especially with watcher and nurse still being alive. I think tom tried to make a soft gambit to out the cop.

Scum knows that the only real shot they have at winning is to kill the cop in the next couple days or prevent him from scanning.

If Bozo is Stalker or Hooker, then Mafia knew brainbomb was not Cop the moment brainbomb claimed. MLQ believed, as I do, that mafia absolutely had to be hunting for Cop on Night 2.

If Bozo's innocent scan were not correct, mafia would not have killed brainbomb.

So for MLQ to suggest now that Mafia could have purposefully killed a person they knew was not Cop on Night 2, strikes me as a manufactured argument made by scum.

[thamrick]

I have read the exchange. Here's how I summarize the arguments from both sides. Feel free to correct anything you think I'm mistaking.

MLQ's cases against Balki
1) Balki planted a seed of doubt against RHK without actually voting him which led to RHK facing scrutiny from lots of other D1.
2) Felt like he was trying to be seen scumhunting, but lacked actual substance to his scumhunting (the I've heard Balki is smart but he's acting dumb argument).
3) Balki is only focused on MLQ and therefore isn't looking for scum elsewhere.
4) Switched from Yav to ND because he didn't want to have the scrutiny of possibly lynching the Cop, flip flopped on Jamiet at crunch time.
5) Scumread Bo and Yav.
6) Misrepresents information.


Balki's case against MLQ
1) MLQ is unwilling/unable to see both sides of an argument.
2) MLQ has attempted to discredit Balki since D1.
3) MLQ defended Jamiet D1.


My analysis, I think both sides make fair points.

I can interpret your D1 interaction that way. I can also interpret as you just pushing for a reaction in order to get a read from him. I disagree with MLQ's 2nd point. I think you've reasonably scumhunted. Overly tunneled on MLQ, sure, especially since I can't really get much bulk from your argument against her upon ISO. Point 3, yep. I see both sides again for MLQ point 4. Disagree with point 5 (I did the same thing) and point 6 I think is just OMGUS.

Balki's point 1, I have had the same criticism of MLQ. 2 - meh. She has gone back and forth on her read. But I get why it bothers Balki. Point 3 is fair.

[Tom Bombadil]

so you still feel bo is the best lynch?

[thamrick]

I find it very strange that Balki has listed Bo as a scumread for similar reasons to my own but hasn't engaged me about it.

I do think Bo is the best lynch today though.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I find it very strange that Balki has listed Bo as a scumread for similar reasons to my own but hasn't engaged me about it.

I do think Bo is the best lynch today though.

Strange? You want to talk about it?

I agree with your points. And I think you're Town and he's Scum.

[Tom Bombadil]

I'm going to try to be on before EOD, but no promises.

[thamrick]

You've played with Bo more than I have. Am I reading into it to much?

Foxy made some decent points that it was immediately after a night in the QT. Would that fit with what RJ would have been told in the QT?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I liked Bo's argument on Day 2 about ND. His basic premise was that ND could be scum because ND was certainly a viable lynch and Jamiet did not fight hard to lynch ND -- Jamiet voted for me.

But that's basically the only thing from Bo's play that has struck me as Townie. He doesn't check-in much. He doesn't strike me as super invested in solving the puzzle. And when I re-read Day 2, his interactions with RJ came across as insecure about RH's participation in the thread.

I don't really have much to engage with you about on this. I think you're likely correct.

[DemonRHK]

I'm still convinced bozo is scum, and I want to see him lynched.

Balki and MLQ are pretty much neck and neck as far as a scumread goes. I have a doubt about MLQ, but it's not anything near enough to advocate taking her out of the running.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I'm happy to flip Bo today. I think we obviously need to flip him before LYLO, and it seems like he's widely scumread. I think he has enough interactions that we'd have plenty more stuff to analyze. If the MLQ wagon peters out, my vote will likely be on Bo.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@MLQ, what is your current thinking on Bo?

[Balki Bartokomous]

The lovely thing about a MLQ flip is that I think I become pretty close to a clear if MLQ flips Scum. That would be fun.

[DemonRHK]

Wait, no no no.

This is the same shit I did with my RJ tunnel. I'm not falling for that again, bozo can wait.

##Vote rd

[thamrick]

I'm still convinced bozo is scum, and I want to see him lynched.

Balki and MLQ are pretty much neck and neck as far as a scumread goes. I have a doubt about MLQ, but it's not anything near enough to advocate taking her out of the running.

Convinced? Why? I read your voting analyses and didn't find them particularly convincing.

Can you summarize what makes you convinced about him?


EDIT: Okay, same thing about rdr. My impression is it's solely based on his defensiveness on D2. Correct? That left a bad taste in my mouth as well but he has seemed pretty townie beyond that

[Balki Bartokomous]

Wait, no no no.

This is the same shit I did with my RJ tunnel. I'm not falling for that again, bozo can wait.

##Vote rd

Well that's new. At the risk of pulling a D1 MLQ, the RD wagon does not seem viable at all. I'm not hearing any calls to lynch him from any place else. At the same time, you're not really listing any reasons here to encourage others to hop on the wagon.

What are you envisioning will happen with this vote? What is your intention behind it?

[DemonRHK]

-I've been rd for a while. D1 and D2 he camped on Ezio and ended on scum with a vote at 6 minutes to go both days.

-His reads have slid all over the place. I went from one of his top townreads to his top scumread early N2, well before anyone else's opinion of me really soured.

-When everyone else screamed fakeclaim, he instantly softened on me.

-He had a hugely out of place aggressive post when I had mentioned people's failures to post EoN reads possibly being a scum trait.

-He feels off. I felt the same thing about RJ, and I failed to follow through. Not gonna do that again. I know it's a fallacy.

In addition:

-I have a concern with the Mean wagon. Not to the point of trying to stop it, 'cause she is scummy as hell, but enough to give me pause to join it for now.

[Foxcastle]

Finishing a Balki-Mean dual-ISO reread. My eyes are bleeding and my bloodpressure is dangerously low, but the short version is that I lean town on Mean and lean scum on Balki.

This next bit is actually an argument that Mean is town, but I want to go through it.

The P11 post from Jamiet " If you think Rjmcf is protecting his scumbuddy MeanLaQueef, would[n't] you vote for her, not him?" makes me wonder. Jamiet decides to intervene in a spat being carried out by his scumbuddy Rjm. Two variables: Mean is Town or Scum, and (from Jamiet's perspective at this time) the order in which we could eventually learn their alignment and how that would reflect on Jamiet.

If Mean is Town and is revealed First: Jamiet would expect to get questions on why he protected Rjm to call Mean scum. This would have looked a little bit bad for both Rjm and Jamiet.

If Mean is Scum and is revealed First: Jamiet would be vindicated. We'd lynch Rjm next, but would Jamiet look like a hero.

If Mean is Town and is revealed Second: Jamiet's comment would look suspicious for trying to protect Rjm, but since we'd already know Rjm is scum, we'd be debating whether Jamiet would bus both her teammates. Still, bad for Jamiet.

If Mean is Scum and is revealed Second: Jamiet looks okay here, because he's asserted that they're both scum already. Town cred for Jamiet...

So for that comment on it's own, if we assume Jamiet was playing correctly, Mean being scum is a reasonable explanation for why Jamiet said that, and it's a better explanation than if Mean is town...

And a bit here that is a point in Balki's favor as town...

On Page 25 (28 minutes from lynch), Mean comes back to Balki. It's a little defensive, and pretty tunnely. I wouldn't read it as scummy, though. I would read it as an experienced IRL mafia player adjusting to forum play. On Page 26 (9 minutes from lynch), Balki responds, somewhat testily, but fair points, I think. It's 20 minutes from when Mean makes her post to when Balki posts his... At the start of that time, Balki's wagon is already a close second, and remains down from ND by only a single vote when when Balki posts (there had been plenty of vote activity on smaller wagons). His post is long enough that it could have taken a large portion of that time to write it (and he certainly isn't posting in between). If Balki were scum, wouldn't he be worried and want to be paying attention to the wagons (so he could coordinate correctly with his team) rather than replying to Mean?

As for the rest, Mean reads town to me, and I don't see scum motives in what she writes. Around Page 94, she begins defending herself, since she has 4 votes. She makes a post that basically boils down to "Why would I kill Brainbomb, one of my biggest defenders?" And I think this is townie, because the answer is: dead men don't change their minds. But again, Mean is consistently thinking like someone who hasn't yet seen the inside of the Mafia QT. In IRL Mafia, you don't want to NK the townies townreading you, because they will keep doing so. If you kill them, they stop townreading you. In the forum, once you NK a townie townreading you, they keep townreading you for the rest of the game. This is the second or third townslip I think I've found from Mean predicated on her defaulting to IRL mafia modes because she hasn't seen the inside of the Mafia QT.

But it's entirely possible I'm misreading this, and Mean is appealing to exactly that sentiment; or that Mean is deliberately leaving "town"slips to make us think she hasn't seen the inside of the Mafia QT. I think she's certainly a smart enough player to know that she can't reveal that she knows too much about the mafia side of the game as it's played on a forum, since she's supposed to be new here.

Balki on Page 104, advocates for shooting ND. Initially on the incorrect premise that there would be a 50 percent chance that if ND was the miller, he's survive with a bulletproof vest. (In general, I don't look kindly on people being confused about the rules; I think scum do it to look like they're less invested in the game. As a lawyer, I think Balki would be even less prone to making that error.) Balki wants to shoot ND, or if there's no gun, just lynch him. This is 6 hours out.

One hour out, though (Page 110), Balki comes back and changes his mind, saying we need to lynch either Yavuz or DemonRHK, since those are the competing claims. I find this scummy. If Balki is scum, he knows that Yavuz and ND are both town, and must consider the possibility that Yavuz is really the cop and ND is the miller. So he wants to kill DemonRHK (for which there's no appetite) or Yavuz (plenty of appetite), and pushes for Yavuz. The logic is convoluted a little, but he summarizes: " TLDR: I think ND is almost certainly either Miller or Scum. Lynching him likely won't tell us who is telling the truth and who is lying." Except that it would have, which is the logic Thamrick laid, and that town (including myself) followed when we lynched ND.

Then there's this from Balki: "It also occurs to me, if Yavuz is indeed the Cop, there is a True Watcher around who knows that Yavuz is telling the truth and DemonRHK is lying. If we are about to lynch Yavuz, and Yavuz is in fact the real Cop, that would obviously be worth having the Real Watcher surface and say "DON'T LYNCH COP, LYNCH DEMONRHK!" Right?" Possibly an effort to out the real watcher?

A bit later, Balki calls out to the Watcher... " If we are about to lynch Yavuz, and you exist, and you know DemonRHK is fake claiming, obviously come forward to save cop. In that case, we'll still have Nurse, Watcher, and Cop going into the night, and we're probably better off having you guys in plain sight so that you can protect each other..."

I wouldn't vote for Mean today, but I would vote for Balki.