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Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:12 pm
by xorxes
goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:04 pm
Sigh. Jamiet CC'd *me* , not the other way around. I had softclaimed and was waiting from permission from the powers that be, when Jamiet went ahead and claimed.
Also, I agree it's highly unlikely Jamiet is reaper. Customs would have a high incentive to roleblock xorxes though, given the position scum teammates would be in during D2.
Also, for all of those who are like "the reaper would never hit xorxes" don't you think that's also a valid reason why the real doc wouldn't protect xorxes? Like, you're halfway there, just go the next step.
The Doc would want to protect from the NK as well, but yes, it would not make sense to try to protect me from the Reaver.
You should stop arguing against Jamie though unless you want to make the case that lynching the roleblocker is a very good thing (which it is). Otherwise, the issue gets resolved by itself at EOD.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:12 pm
by Chaqa
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:06 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:48 pm
At what point do we consider ending the phase?
At no point.
You're so scummy Chaqa. Did ND reavered you?
No, did Jamie reaver you?
I just don't think we have that much left to discuss. We're not getting any new information and it's clear that we're lynching worcej. I want new info to work with.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:14 pm
by Chaqa
peterlund wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:06 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:50 pm
It's a triplel-use test:
1. It lets us know if Jamie is Reaver OR
2. It lets us know if Jamie is Roleblocker
AND
3. It lets us continuously protect xorxes from being Reaver'd.
But 2. is a more likely option than Reaver. Jamie could have been "CUSTOMS" (maf1 RB) that visited Xorx in order to remove his +2 ability for Day 2, and then Jamie could as a backup plan claim Doc. It is more probable that Jamie is Customs than Reaver.
I tend to agree. I don't think Jamie is Reaver. If I had to guess:
Doctor > RB > Reaver
Goldie just has struck me wrong all game.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:15 pm
by damo666
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:48 pm
@Confirmed PRs - what do you think of what I was saying earlier?
Do we prefer to maximize information, or minimize mislynches? The two have quite different, but both promising, paths forward. See below:
---------------------------
Minimize Mislynches
---------------------------
Step 1: Lynch worcej. We know, barring anything else, that he is not town. He claims BH, but could be RP or M1, so by lynching him, we wipe out an enemy, regardless, and one who if we decide to leave alive long-term could be a threat depending on night-kills. (Side note - did everyone forget he claimed to have an inno scan om Temasek? Is this just WIFOM?)
Step 2: Implement the xorxes plan. If xorxes still has his +C votes, this informs us that Jamiet is Doctor. If he does not, then we know Jamiet is either RP or scum. Regardless of which, it would be prudent to roleblock/commute him, then lynch him.
Step 3: Scan a VT, or a Companion CC. I think I would tend toward a VT here. The Companion CC is always a 50/50, whereas the VT pool is a 1/3 right now, so we can increase our odds by sorting one out.
Outlook:
Day 2: lynch worcej. Scan VT or Companion CC
Night 2: based on xorxes vote count, RB Jamie/Goldie. Commute damo (VERY IMPORTANT).
Day 3: lynch Jamiet or Goldie. If Damo get another scan.
---------------------------
Maximize Info:
---------------------------
Step 1: Lynch Hosuke or Kalel. There's good arguments to either one. Regardless, we have a 50/50 on killing scum, and if we miss, we activate the backup Companion and have a definite lynch the next day.
Step 2: Implement xorxes plan.
Step 3: Scan a VT. Same benefits as above.
Outlook:
Day 2: lynch Kalel/Hosuke. Scan VT.
Night 2: same as above
Day 3: same as above
I strongly suspect it will be the former
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:16 pm
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:12 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:06 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:48 pm
At what point do we consider ending the phase?
At no point.
You're so scummy Chaqa. Did ND reavered you?
No, did Jamie reaver you?
I just don't think we have that much left to discuss. We're not getting any new information and it's clear that we're lynching worcej. I want new info to work with.
We have more than 24 hours to get some sense into people. And Hosuke still needs to tell us who they roleblocked.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:17 pm
by Chaqa
@xorx/ND/peter -
Call me scummy all you want. EVERYONE has called me scummy in every goddamn game since Mafia #1 regardless of my role. It no longer phases me, I don't consider it when I play, I don't give a shit what other people think of the way I play or the ideas I come up with.
There is no right or wrong way to play this game. Everything is subjective. One person's scummy behavior is another's towny. Focus on helping me figure out the optimal way to figure this out - there's a lot of options out there and I want to find the one that provides us with the smallest opportunity of throwing away a victory like we did last game.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:17 pm
by Jamiet99uk
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:42 pm
peterlund wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:33 pm
Also I think we are doing this Xorxes +2 test too early. The Reavers are not yet done recruiting. After this Day 3 when the Reaver recruiting probably is done then is the time to test Xorxes abilities.
We need to do it today in order to figure out which one of Jamiet/goldie is the real Doc.
If I have my powers intact, Jamie is the Doc (or the Investigator, although this is highly unlikely). If I lost my powers, Jamiet is the roleblocker (or the Reaver, although this is highly unlikely, and I know is not the case).
Surely if I was the Roleblocker, you'd be told that you lost your voting bonuses?
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:17 pm
by goldfinger0303
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:12 pm
The Doc would want to protect from the NK as well, but yes, it would not make sense to try to protect me from the Reaver.
You should stop arguing against Jamie though unless you want to make the case that lynching the roleblocker is a very good thing (which it is). Otherwise, the issue gets resolved by itself at EOD.
True, it's distracting. I'll leave it to confirmed town to decide if they want to lynch roleblocker today or not. I'm personally of the opinion that it's better to search for the Reaver in the companion CC or worcej, with a slight lean toward the companion CC because even if we mislynch there, we catch a scum and clear another VT.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:18 pm
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:14 pm
peterlund wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:06 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:50 pm
It's a triplel-use test:
1. It lets us know if Jamie is Reaver OR
2. It lets us know if Jamie is Roleblocker
AND
3. It lets us continuously protect xorxes from being Reaver'd.
But 2. is a more likely option than Reaver. Jamie could have been "CUSTOMS" (maf1 RB) that visited Xorx in order to remove his +2 ability for Day 2, and then Jamie could as a backup plan claim Doc. It is more probable that Jamie is Customs than Reaver.
I tend to agree. I don't think Jamie is Reaver. If I had to guess:
Doctor > RB > Reaver
Goldie just has struck me wrong all game.
Who is your best bet for roleblocker if Jamie is doctor? SuperHosuke?
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:19 pm
by Chaqa
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:16 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:12 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:06 pm
At no point.
You're so scummy Chaqa. Did ND reavered you?
No, did Jamie reaver you?
I just don't think we have that much left to discuss. We're not getting any new information and it's clear that we're lynching worcej. I want new info to work with.
We have more than 24 hours to get some sense into people. And Hosuke still needs to tell us who they roleblocked.
I would like to hear this information, true - but I really believe Kalel at this point, and I'm starting to solidify in the "no mislynches" camp, which would mean damo needs to scan one of them (Kalel, preferably) at some point anyway.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:21 pm
by goldfinger0303
Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:17 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:42 pm
peterlund wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:33 pm
Also I think we are doing this Xorxes +2 test too early. The Reavers are not yet done recruiting. After this Day 3 when the Reaver recruiting probably is done then is the time to test Xorxes abilities.
We need to do it today in order to figure out which one of Jamiet/goldie is the real Doc.
If I have my powers intact, Jamie is the Doc (or the Investigator, although this is highly unlikely). If I lost my powers, Jamiet is the roleblocker (or the Reaver, although this is highly unlikely, and I know is not the case).
Surely if I was the Roleblocker, you'd be told that you lost your voting bonuses?
GM confirmed that they would be informed when they tried to activate their powers, which would be EOD.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:21 pm
by xorxes
Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:17 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:42 pm
peterlund wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:33 pm
Also I think we are doing this Xorxes +2 test too early. The Reavers are not yet done recruiting. After this Day 3 when the Reaver recruiting probably is done then is the time to test Xorxes abilities.
We need to do it today in order to figure out which one of Jamiet/goldie is the real Doc.
If I have my powers intact, Jamie is the Doc (or the Investigator, although this is highly unlikely). If I lost my powers, Jamiet is the roleblocker (or the Reaver, although this is highly unlikely, and I know is not the case).
Surely if I was the Roleblocker, you'd be told that you lost your voting bonuses?
Maybe if you read the thread you would know I wouldn't. And you were already told that I wouldn't.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:22 pm
by Chaqa
Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:17 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:42 pm
peterlund wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:33 pm
Also I think we are doing this Xorxes +2 test too early. The Reavers are not yet done recruiting. After this Day 3 when the Reaver recruiting probably is done then is the time to test Xorxes abilities.
We need to do it today in order to figure out which one of Jamiet/goldie is the real Doc.
If I have my powers intact, Jamie is the Doc (or the Investigator, although this is highly unlikely). If I lost my powers, Jamiet is the roleblocker (or the Reaver, although this is highly unlikely, and I know is not the case).
Surely if I was the Roleblocker, you'd be told that you lost your voting bonuses?
Pay attention. Kit said he would only be informed at EoD that his extra votes were blocked. It's very unusual.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:22 pm
by Chaqa
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:18 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:14 pm
peterlund wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:06 pm
But 2. is a more likely option than Reaver. Jamie could have been "CUSTOMS" (maf1 RB) that visited Xorx in order to remove his +2 ability for Day 2, and then Jamie could as a backup plan claim Doc. It is more probable that Jamie is Customs than Reaver.
I tend to agree. I don't think Jamie is Reaver. If I had to guess:
Doctor > RB > Reaver
Goldie just has struck me wrong all game.
Who is your best bet for roleblocker if Jamie is doctor? SuperHosuke?
Yes. It would make sense for the Roleblocker to claim Companion, wouldn't it? That way they could verify their RB claims.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:24 pm
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:19 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:16 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:12 pm
No, did Jamie reaver you?
I just don't think we have that much left to discuss. We're not getting any new information and it's clear that we're lynching worcej. I want new info to work with.
We have more than 24 hours to get some sense into people. And Hosuke still needs to tell us who they roleblocked.
I would like to hear this information, true - but I really believe Kalel at this point, and I'm starting to solidify in the "no mislynches" camp, which would mean damo needs to scan one of them (Kalel, preferably) at some point anyway.
No, it doesn't mean that at all. Why waste a scan on someone that can verify themselves through their powers?
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:24 pm
by Chaqa
My best guesses atm:
worcej - BH
Hosuke - Roleblocker
Goldie - Investigator
Fox/Bozo - Agent/RP
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:25 pm
by dargorygel
Ok chaqa, do you have connections between scum candidates? Is that what you are looking for? If we lynch worcej, did anyone buddy him, or fake conflict.... That sort of thing,?
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:26 pm
by dargorygel
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:24 pm
My best guesses atm:
worcej - BH
Hosuke - Roleblocker
Goldie - Investigator
Fox/Bozo - Agent/RP
And reaver?
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:26 pm
by Chaqa
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:24 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:19 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:16 pm
We have more than 24 hours to get some sense into people. And Hosuke still needs to tell us who they roleblocked.
I would like to hear this information, true - but I really believe Kalel at this point, and I'm starting to solidify in the "no mislynches" camp, which would mean damo needs to scan one of them (Kalel, preferably) at some point anyway.
No, it doesn't mean that at all. Why waste a scan on someone that can verify themselves through their powers?
See what I said before - I believe it's very meaningful that Suprstition (Hosuke) claimed COMPANION during Night 1 and not before. His teammates likely coached him that he could get away with this claim as he could confirm that he was in fact performing a roleblock.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:26 pm
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:22 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:18 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:14 pm
I tend to agree. I don't think Jamie is Reaver. If I had to guess:
Doctor > RB > Reaver
Goldie just has struck me wrong all game.
Who is your best bet for roleblocker if Jamie is doctor? SuperHosuke?
Yes. It would make sense for the Roleblocker to claim Companion, wouldn't it? That way they could verify their RB claims.
In which case, we really want to know who they roleblocked, don't we?