Bonatogether wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:24 pm
looking back at d2
for those unfamiliar with how i do vca, major wagon is >= 3 votes
the first major wagon of the day is tom (v1), at T-47:08 - at the very start of d2. HR, Neon, and wolfu are these three voters. neon and wolfu both specifically cite following brain's read as a reason, HR doesn't say much d2 at all so. quickly slides back into minor status in 3 hours
major wagon #2 was bozo (v1)! my buddy. the reasoning behind this wagon is sheeping brain (the pyx, rdr), and reasoning that he missed a mechs thing (darg).
Curious that both early major wagons (and eventual finals wagons) were largely kicked off with sheeps on brain's reads. i figure this as either one or both were driven by scum just trying to piggyback and get off with an easy day of voting - this is somewhat confirmed to me in that of the six people who i just listed as early voters on major wagons (HR, Neon, wolfu, darg, the pyx, rdr), only two ever switched to the other one (rdr and wolfu) - but rdr was attempting to avoid a tie, and wolfu moved back to his original vote. these wagons had EXTORDINARY longevity, which to me is extremely suspicious
tom lost and regained (T-24:54) major status with Neon moving around, and he'd keep it for the rest of the day
i picked up 3 votes in quick succession (really 4 but neon quickly moved on and off) from sabi, darg, and tom. stated reasons were VCA (tom), blocking off avenues of inquiry (darg), and i was posting a lot of filler/not much game stuff (sabi). darg and tom are conf!town, so not much to say there, but sabi's reasoning is frankly weak. it's not clear what they count as filler, and i'm naturally a high-post/low word poster anyways (especially on d1), so i'm not clear what their data was supposed to show. in any case sabi moves off me in four hours and never looks back, so not sure really what to make of it. i wouldn't pick up another vote for the rest of the day (despite a fair amount of people scumreading me, iirc). to me this looks like a town-driven wagon with the exception of sabi, whose motives are less clear, with scum elsewhere in thread interested in it but never actually moving on for long (incidentally neon moves on in accordance with sabi's data but they immediately move back off to tom)
no-vote becomes a major wagon with sabi, bozo, and rumi at T-12:47. i feel confident that rumi's just town, but i find it interesting that sabi chooses to not move onto either major wagon until pressured literally at EoD into voting. sus, as the kids would say. bozo also doesn't choose to vote until he moves onto his counterwagon (who he'd been sporadically talking about and scumreading over the course of the day). not sure why he chooses to no-vote at the time he did and not vote a scumread
wolfu becomes a wagon! i was happy about this but then the wagon fell apart cause it had zero momentum. cringe! the votes were me, demon, and ike - that inspiring triad. i voted wolfu because i believed they scumslipped knowledge of damo's alignment, demon voted him because of some unclear reasons, and ike because of wolfu saying that he thought someone was softclaiming pr during the night. i think only my vote is really like, fair, here. ike's is fine, but demon's just looks bad. he also notably avoids voting either bozo or tom for the entire day.
no other real wagons form or get momentum.
blah blah, same basic people form the core of the tom and bozo wagons
when push came to shove, to avoid a probable tie (caused by me), 3 people moved onto tom, and 0 onto bozo. those three were rdr, rumi, and sabi. rumi came from unvote, sabi came from bo after repeated prods. rdr came from bozo explicitly to avoid a tie. i don't especially scumread that group aside from sabi, so i think this is a town swing, which makes it hard to read anything out of it - doesn't tell us about bozo much. sabi's vote is also not informative, even if they are scum, because they didn't actually vote either wagon before, so like, bruh.
cause it's a mostly town flip i figure scum either weren't online or didn't really care, implying bozo is somewhat more likely to be town
tl;dr:
sabi looks bad
demon looks bad
the group of six (HR, Neon, wolfu, darg, the pyx, rdr) almost certainly has scum just cruising on a path to kill town
bozo looks somewhat better
im the best