M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Squigs44]

Okay Snowy I read your long post. Pretty much all you talked about was playstyle. How scum would never do this playstyle because of this. And how this playstyle day 2 shows you're town because scum would have done this playstyle instead.

For a guy like you Snowy, playstyle isn't all that alignment indicative. I think scum Snowy is smart enough to know what playstyle town Snowy would be making and mimic it. So for me in day 2 I'm looking more at what reads you've made, what cases you've pushed, what votes you've made, what wagons you coerced, the actions rather than the playstyle. That's where my scumread comes from

None of my reads, cases, and votes should indicate that I'm scum. You're just justifying your reads after the fact because you don't know how to assess the gamestate in any meaningful manner

I am surprised you're not pushing bona/Snowy as the most likely scum pair if this is how you allegedly think, I'd have thought that was the most natural instinct

I've already explained why I think your EoD looks scummy, go tell me why I'm wrong there instead of hand waving and saying I'm wrong.

Also, me considering different scum teams is here:

jamiet - since you think snowy was mafia, do you think he was actively protected yesterday / who would've most likely done that?

Celaph/Bona/Snowy would be a spicy scumteam given the EoD1

More realistically I think if snowy is scum, maybe damo is scum also based on EoD, but really I don't think snowy really needed saving. Damo questioned Jamie's vote on snowy being the most sus if snowy is scum

So yes, I think you and Bona make a decent scum pair considering EoD, although Bonas vote for you late would be risky, which is why others (damo or worcej/darg) make a better pairing with you.

[bozotheclown]

Or maybe those 5 people we listed were lead wagons day 1 because they have done the most scummy things, which would also explain why they are in our POEs.

I've laid out cases on Bona and Celaph before they were major wagons. I laid out a case on Snowy that shows my progression in thought on him. You and damo I've been less organized, but I have given thoughts about where I stand with you throughout day 1 and today. If you think my reads are forced, disgenuine, or contradictory, please bring that up.

As far as bussing goes, I already laid out reasoning for how Snowy/damo would make a lot of sense as a scumpair. Snowy and Bona could also work with some bussing. You could be scum with damo, snowy, or Bona. Really the only pieces that don't fit nicely are a Bona/damo pair OR Celaph with yourself and probably Bona.

Bonatogether was a wagon when you first posted and voted for him, and I did not like the case you made on him later. Town players generally do not like getting voted either.

I reviewed you past scum games, and you did better than you represented. In some cases you were the last scum remaining, and in others you were mechanically caught.

If I assume you are town and that you believe the town did a good job identifying the scum D1 (perhaps with help by scum bussing) so that all the scum were wagons at some point D1, do you think it is possible ghug could be mafia, restricting his list of players he wants to see as wagons to those that could be easy to vote off?

When I voted for Bona he only had joke votes for him and I think i was the first to actually provide a case. And obviously we disagree on our Bona reads, but characterizing my case on him as me voting him because he didn't like getting voted is strawmannig my case.

My scum games were M39 - died EoD1, M41 - died EoD2, M43 - died EoD3. We resigned that game, I wasn't the last scum alive. And I was mechanically caught by investigative roles who scumread me, so yes, I've been scumread every time.

Is it possible ghug is mafia? Yes. Is it possible that there is scum outside of my PoE and that my reads will evolve as we get more info? Yes.
The purpose of the PoE is to focus in on those most likely to be scum, not a 100% this is it list. For right now, though, I think it's more likely ghug is just town who is reading the same game as me and coming to similar conclusions as me.

As far as I can tell your D1 case on Bonatogether was based on his defensive reactions to getting votes.

You were also mafia in M50 and M55, where you lasted until D5 and D6. There is an interesting pattern there.

[damo666]

Snowy's long post doesn't convince me 1 iota.

Glad to see Bozo posting more. I'm not convinced though that ghug and Squigs having similar reads is AI.

Where is celaph.

I have had an idea regarding EOD1. Have to work on it though. More later.

Didn't work out. Shame.

What was it?

It was mutual voting groups which would imply mutual bussing if all scum so therefore most unlikelyimo. Unfortunately however there were no such groups.

[Squigs44]

I had a stronger scum read of bona at the time, but given that my strongest scum read of the day was ghug and I was growing leery of DL at the moment

So at EoD you decided to vote for Bo (a lesser scum read) who was being voted by ghug and DL (2 of your bigger scumreads) instead of Bona (who you scumread more than Bo) who was being voted by myself, celaph, and damo (who you say you were townreading at the time).

That doesn't add up

[Squigs44]

Bonatogether was a wagon when you first posted and voted for him, and I did not like the case you made on him later. Town players generally do not like getting voted either.

I reviewed you past scum games, and you did better than you represented. In some cases you were the last scum remaining, and in others you were mechanically caught.

If I assume you are town and that you believe the town did a good job identifying the scum D1 (perhaps with help by scum bussing) so that all the scum were wagons at some point D1, do you think it is possible ghug could be mafia, restricting his list of players he wants to see as wagons to those that could be easy to vote off?

When I voted for Bona he only had joke votes for him and I think i was the first to actually provide a case. And obviously we disagree on our Bona reads, but characterizing my case on him as me voting him because he didn't like getting voted is strawmannig my case.

My scum games were M39 - died EoD1, M41 - died EoD2, M43 - died EoD3. We resigned that game, I wasn't the last scum alive. And I was mechanically caught by investigative roles who scumread me, so yes, I've been scumread every time.

Is it possible ghug is mafia? Yes. Is it possible that there is scum outside of my PoE and that my reads will evolve as we get more info? Yes.
The purpose of the PoE is to focus in on those most likely to be scum, not a 100% this is it list. For right now, though, I think it's more likely ghug is just town who is reading the same game as me and coming to similar conclusions as me.

As far as I can tell your D1 case on Bonatogether was based on his defensive reactions to getting votes.

You were also mafia in M50 and M55, where you lasted until D5 and D6. There is an interesting pattern there.

M50 I was the lead wagon EoD3 so I mechanically outted myself for set up reasons. So I didn't actually make it to day 5.

M55 I subbed in for Fox day 3 and coasted till I was killed day 6. Also a game heavily influenced by mechs

[snowy801]

People bus a lot, your logic is senseless

Vecna bussed Kaka without pausing a beat last game
Literally the entire team bussed Maniac in M69
Other examples off the top of my head

I don't believe in doing what bozo's doing right now (i.e. letting my scum reads' scum reads influence my own because my own understanding of the game will always be better than attempting to see the reflection based on others)

Your being wrong about me is tautological and there is nothing to really explain. Better to just show why others are right than why I'm wrong

ghug keeps trying to shade me on this but I am in fact unfortunately pressed for time this weekend. I have set aside time for this purpose which will hopefully be enough but such is life. At least after the game I'll be believed

[Squigs44]

Imma be in and out leading up to EoD but I should definitely be here for EoD

[damo666]

^ open question for the snowy wagon ig

You!

Damo why do you think death Llama is it?

---

Anyway I do find it interesting that all three gave wildly different answers for this question and how they interpreted it.

I do find jamiet answer the most interesting of the three. I wonder why he jumped to that conclusion and didn't even consider damo or even you. It makes sense why damo wouldn't talk about himself.

The question was IF snowy was saved who most likely saved him. With 5 minutes to go there was a 3 way tie between Bona bo and snowy. This was the biggest danger snowy was in. At that point DL switched to from bo to Bona demoting snowy to 2nd place. This is why I gave DL as an answer.

Worcej moved from snowy to bo with 2 minutes to go so Jamie's answer makes sense too. However the fact worcej switched to bo rather than Bona may indicate a Bona save instead of or as well as a snowy save. The late DL and celaph moves could indicate one or both were bussing Bona and had to move to save him.

In fact some combination of {snowy, worgel, Bona, DL, celaph} looks highly possible to me. I will examine the 15 possible scumteams this could be to see if any can be eliminated.

I am happy at the moment with my vote on snowy but could vote any of the above I guess (in that order of preference, maybe swapping Bona and worgel).

[damo666]

I had a stronger scum read of bona at the time, but given that my strongest scum read of the day was ghug and I was growing leery of DL at the moment

So at EoD you decided to vote for Bo (a lesser scum read) who was being voted by ghug and DL (2 of your bigger scumreads) instead of Bona (who you scumread more than Bo) who was being voted by myself, celaph, and damo (who you say you were townreading at the time).

That doesn't add up

I wonder how snowy is going to try wriggle out of this.

[damo666]

If Sabi are scum they will win so unless anyone else has doubts I'm going to abandon that line of thinking (for today anyway).

[damo666]

Examining the quintet above I doubt snowy and Bona are a scumpair and I doubt Bona and DL are a scum pair so possible teams are:

Snow darg DL celaph
Snow Darg DL
Snow Darg celaph
Snow DL celaph
Darg Bona celaph
Darg DL celaph

Frequency count:

Snowy 4
Darg 5
DL 4
celaph 5
Bona 1

[snowy801]

The absolute apathy of this town

[damo666]

The absolute apathy of this town

I'm trying

[snowy801]

The absolute apathy of this town

I'm trying

Oh I didn't see your post

Why darcej? He was my hardest town read yesterday

[damo666]

The absolute apathy of this town

I'm trying

Oh I didn't see your post

Why darcej? He was my hardest town read yesterday

Mainly worcej's late switch from you. Doesn't mean much if you're town though.

[snowy801]

I'm trying

Oh I didn't see your post

Why darcej? He was my hardest town read yesterday

Mainly worcej's late switch from you. Doesn't mean much if you're town though.

I'd say work under that assumption if that means anything to you

[damo666]

Oh I didn't see your post

Why darcej? He was my hardest town read yesterday

Mainly worcej's late switch from you. Doesn't mean much if you're town though.

I'd say work under that assumption if that means anything to you

You're voting DL. Who do you think he is scum with? I could switch.

[snowy801]

Mainly worcej's late switch from you. Doesn't mean much if you're town though.

I'd say work under that assumption if that means anything to you

You're voting DL. Who do you think he is scum with? I could switch.

ghug, possibly bona, at a stretch bozo or at a real stretch Squigs

People I've been looking at. I keep circling back to just bona though

Side note don't think there's 4 scum

[bozotheclown]

I had a stronger scum read of bona at the time, but given that my strongest scum read of the day was ghug and I was growing leery of DL at the moment

So at EoD you decided to vote for Bo (a lesser scum read) who was being voted by ghug and DL (2 of your bigger scumreads) instead of Bona (who you scumread more than Bo) who was being voted by myself, celaph, and damo (who you say you were townreading at the time).

That doesn't add up

What you seem to be implying is that snowy was protecting himself and Bonatogether. Do you see a reason a scum snowy would do this with a town Bonatogether?

[snowy801]

you know what I don't think I'll have time to write essays anymore until a couple hours from now and I don't want to wait that long to get these out

why ghug is scum

- he had no scum reads most of d1
- says he finally got one on celaph but has he even mentioned it once?
- has no desire to push anyone even slightly and take the game in hand, entirely passive play (yeah he kept talking about bo_sox but when did he actually push that? bona was made by other hands than himself)
- he's completely detached the game, never seen such passive observer mode ghug. Useless ghug? Sure, but he always cared

some things that you should consider moving forward

- nobody scum reads ghug. Have you ever seen that happen? Consider the past games where everyone was up in his grill just because he's allegedly so hard to read
- why is he so okay with the state of this day if he's still trying to figure me out? He's happy about the game state

I'm going to have to reread DL to see why I scum read him so much, started near EoD with him going for bo for sure though