Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[xorxes]

@xorxes: What do you think of this town slip? How does it compare to your having to wait for a GM answer to know the scum were given a list of all five fake roles?

I don't give it any weight. It could be real but it is also really easy to fake. I'm really null on EP. Currently I don't have a place for him in the team but I can easily see him there as well instead of flash or dargo for example.

As for my "slip", don't put any weight on that either. I don't do that kind of theatrics but you don't have to believe it.

Question for you though: did you ask the GMs about the fake role list and whether the roles were randomly assigned?

Yes, before the game started.

Good, because in rereading I noticed you knew exactly how it was.

[e.m.c^42]

@emc, how come you're such a good detective in matters that don't involve actually finding scum?

Alas, if finding scum only was as easy as that. Recall is easy, analysis apparently not so much.

[e.m.c^42]

Actually, I'm way too lazy to go and find quotes to reply to, so this is the general gist of it:

Jamie...feels more uninvolved (a better description would probably be "out-of-touch" or less engaged) than usual meta. Not sure if it's actually true, but it's the impression I got from reading his interactions.

[Vaporwave]

what are your current reads, Percy?

I want you to know that as soon as I posted the previous post, I immediately pushed post and wrote what could be a perfect response to this. I would have quoted this in that message if I had seen it.

No problem

[xorxes]

Hosuke claimed mason in the middle of D1. Why wait until D2 to give those cryptic numbers that presumably can be used to ascertain who the other mason is? Why not do it D1? What if he had been killed and janitored on N1, how would the other mason prove themselves? Were they not the least bit concerned that one of them could be killed?

[bozotheclown]

Being in different timezones does not prevent them from being online at some agreed time together, which may be morning for one and late evening for the other, for example.

I'm going to ##VOTE ItsHosuke for now because there's something fishy going on when the two people with claimed powers that can threaten Mafia are the two leading wagons and there may be a powerthief on the loose.

Why are you voting a verifiable town role before the claim has been resolved? Doesn't your logic on Percy extend to Hosuke?

Have you read the last few pages?

Yes, ideally we don't lynch any of those three, but if the choice is among those three then I rather vote Hosuke because they can clear themselves if they are town and also because the other two are more valuable to town if they are town.

There is zero risk of mislynching Hosuke.

That is debatable considering Hosuke's activity level.

[e.m.c^42]

woo, back from eating meat skewers, continuing:

Vapor, not really, I don't have any particularly convincing out-of-game excuses for low activity, time rabbit-holing down obscure reddit subs :P

Foxcastle, are reading mainly by style/tone? Since I noticed on your list of 5 (Percy, EMC, Damo, Vapor, Chaqa) your scumreads all fit in a very similar category of players, in both posting style and general usefulness. It seems kinda...one-size-apply-all, or just lazy/having a personal response? - like, posting flavour-wise I'd say percy/vapor/me would be...rather distinct, in a derpy way. Damo has his shorts, my coalition game partner Chaqa dead here and there like I - which I actually get.

[xorxes]

Why are you voting a verifiable town role before the claim has been resolved? Doesn't your logic on Percy extend to Hosuke?

Have you read the last few pages?

Yes, ideally we don't lynch any of those three, but if the choice is among those three then I rather vote Hosuke because they can clear themselves if they are town and also because the other two are more valuable to town if they are town.

There is zero risk of mislynching Hosuke.

That is debatable considering Hosuke's activity level.

If neither he nor his partner care at all about the game, then yes, I suppose he could be mislynched.

[e.m.c^42]

brain, don't taunt vapor too much ;p

He's a perfectly nice example of a wonderful being who is comfortable showing open platonic affection, which the world needs more of.

No idea what hosuke is even doing - Is he even reading the thread? Either very noob, or not-so-noob playing scum (didn't he admit to observing several of the games here? Considering he is not a complete idiot, he probably knows at least a basic amount on how the game works, and from his posts he has a decent grasp of mafia terminology) since he automatically gets a type of strong leniency for being new. (mine is wearing off, unfortunately lol). Damo's idea could be considered in a couple of days or so, seeing on how things go, but doesn't seem quite prudent as of yet.

Although, he might also just be not interested lmao.

[Percy Williams]

brain, don't taunt vapor too much ;p

He's a perfectly nice example of a wonderful being who is comfortable showing open platonic affection, which the world needs more of.

No idea what hosuke is even doing - Is he even reading the thread? Either very noob, or not-so-noob playing scum (didn't he admit to observing several of the games here? Considering he is not a complete idiot, he probably knows at least a basic amount on how the game works, and from his posts he has a decent grasp of mafia terminology) since he automatically gets a type of strong leniency for being new. (mine is wearing off, unfortunately lol). Damo's idea could be considered in a couple of days or so, seeing on how things go, but doesn't seem quite prudent as of yet.

Although, he might also just be not interested lmao.

This plan doesn't work in a few days, as if they are both Mafia they can communicate and come up with something to post to look like they are in the chat together.
I'm of the opinion that Itshosuke is Town, with an actual Mason he's talking to, and I also think Jamiet is Town. If Itshosuke flips scum though, then Jamiet is scum.

[Foxcastle]

brain, don't taunt vapor too much ;p

He's a perfectly nice example of a wonderful being who is comfortable showing open platonic affection, which the world needs more of.

No idea what hosuke is even doing - Is he even reading the thread? Either very noob, or not-so-noob playing scum (didn't he admit to observing several of the games here? Considering he is not a complete idiot, he probably knows at least a basic amount on how the game works, and from his posts he has a decent grasp of mafia terminology) since he automatically gets a type of strong leniency for being new. (mine is wearing off, unfortunately lol). Damo's idea could be considered in a couple of days or so, seeing on how things go, but doesn't seem quite prudent as of yet.

Although, he might also just be not interested lmao.

This plan doesn't work in a few days, as if they are both Mafia they can communicate and come up with something to post to look like they are in the chat together.
I'm of the opinion that Itshosuke is Town, with an actual Mason he's talking to, and I also think Jamiet is Town. If Itshosuke flips scum though, then Jamiet is scum.

So long as a townclear can suggest something for them to post, this always works. If we run out of townclears, we just create increasingly complex scenarios from different players until it becomes unlikely that they could all be scum ploys.

[Foxcastle]

##VOTE XORXES

His push on Itshosuke makes no sense. It's very unlikely scum-ItsHosuke saw his the list of fake claims and posted one on a joke. I dislike how he's saying we shouldn't even consider Percy yet because it'll take care of itself in several days, when it's easy to see that if Percy isn't scum, the scum will keep him alive as a point of contention and then kill him before he can be useful. It looks like he's trying to mislynch what could possibly be a long-term townclear.

[worcej]

IDEA:

ItsHosuke reveals his partner and we lynch him. We either sacrifice a town but gain a townclear or we bag 2 scum.

Seems a reasonable gamble to me.

Thoughts?

This... is weird... but not all that terrible of an idea. I'm not rushing to support it, but I see the thinking behind it.

The problem I am stuck around is it really doesn't matter what anyone actually claims. With the scum having a list of claims to make to prevent the game from being killed by mechanics, honestly it doesn't matter what anyone's roles are as we lynch them.

This is why the people who have claimed roles that matter later in the game strike me as just pretty bad town play or scum trying to buy time to make it to the later phases.

[bo_sox48]

xorxes insists youre town for trying to lynch the vig.

I didn't try to lynch the vig. I tried to lynch an obvious fake claimant. I'll take that to my grave.

I am generally caught up to this point, although I read quickly. I noted some time back that I was going to reread day 1 with lurking in mind and I have spent most of my evening prioritizing doing so. I started my reread from page 1 and began compiling as I went, and then went back and did it again with each player I analyzed. Strictly speaking, posting less than me constitutes lurking in my opinion as I haven't been here for the vast majority of night 1 and day 2. I should be the lowest poster right now. As such, I am going to post an analysis of each of the players who have posted fewer times than me.

I acknowledge the obvious flaw in that reasoning: it doesn't take into account what they say in the posts they have made. Well of fucking course not, that's why I'm analyzing them.

My next five posts will be long.

[bo_sox48]

ItsHosuke -

tl;dr — claimed mason, unverifiable

If someone is a mason, they should play like a townclear. ItsHosuke has really not played at all, let alone playing like a townclear. As such, I’m not super convinced about his claim. The most notable exchange he has been involved in to this point is this:

ItsHosuke voted MoscowFleet yesterday and never moved off them.

Almost the only thing they've posted about is how they are a mason, but how they've had difficulty communicating with the other mason because of time zones. But if mason chat is open all the time, that doesn't matter. It also doesn't excuse posting literally nothing in the main thread... ItsHosuke seems to be suggesting they aren't able to post because they're so busy trying to communicate in mason chat?

Also asked for a TL;DR which bothers me, seems to exempt someone from the need to form their own ideas.

...and, took the time to post a bump... like... I am struggling to imagine the individual who thinks, "I would like to play Mafia on webDiplomacy!" and then... proceeds to NOT play? At all? Unless ItsHosuke is a total newb to the game, rolled scum, and is afraid.

Whoops wait ##vote damo666, sorry

Why??? This is useless.

##VOTE ItsHosuke

Uhh... I’m a total newb who has only observed a few games and knows none of the meta. And tbf I was expecting to be sub or something but multiple people dropped out. I town read some players but will get to that later when I take a more detailed look at the thread,

Meanwhile, ##UNVOTE

Has been playing like a total newb, but is he a total newb? There’s three ways this can be explained:

a) he is not a newb, but he is town, and probably not a terribly important role, so he claimed mason early for no apparent reason because he understands the game and wanted to be a townclear and have influence. He’s a funny guy, so he turned his claim into a joke.

b) he is a newb, and he claimed mason early for no apparent reason because he was stuck in the joke page on page 15 when he claimed it and thought the flavor was funny. He didn’t really understand the ramifications of the claim.

c) he is not a newb, or at the very least he is an intelligent newb, and read the setup ahead of time. When he was given his fake claim, he realized that he and a teammate could claim mason and be “clears” without risk.

I think I’m leaning b, and the reason is because I think that most of his limited posts have been genuine “I don’t know what the fuck is going on” kind of posts. He seems like a lost puppy, or like a total newb.

However, I’m open to c. While apparently casting evident doubt on PR claimants is frowned upon, it makes sense. Primarily, I see this as possible because he admitted in the post I quoted not that he is completely new to mafia, but that he is a “total newb who has only observed a few games.” I interpret this as him saying that he knows how the mechanics work, and perhaps, if he is scum, being too prideful to play the stupid card to its fullest potential. Kind of a stretch maybe, but possible. Hence why I’m leaning b.

The other thing that gets me to consider c as an option is this:

@All

Those who want me to reveal my mason teammate... he said that in the chain of numbers 381751353620 six will reveal who he is, he kinda wants to lay low or something

Oh and yeah ##vote Percy

This came out at the beginning of day 2. Mason chat is open constantly. If he has a mason teammate, why didn’t they have this conversation by the end of day 1? Why didn’t this come out during night 1, when they had little else to discuss other than their plans to confirm one another as town? A conspiratorial mindset leads me to ponder whether or not this was a conversation in mafia chat that had slipped through the cracks. Maybe it went like this:

[teammate]: “Hey, ItsHosuke, before the night chat closes, I figured out a little code that could allow you and [teammate 2] to claim mason. Post that in the chain of numbers 381751353620 six will reveal who [teammate 2] is. Keep it cryptic and try to convince town not to try too hard to reveal the both of you unless [teammate 2] is under pressure later on, because that will look more genuine.”

Again, maybe a stretch, but it’s possible that him posting the code just after night 1 ended is not a coincidence.

(Editing this to add that obviously some others are feeling more suspicious than I given that he has 3 votes on him, but I have not read the whole of day 2 to this point in context.)

[bo_sox48]

darg -

tl;dr — had one weird scummy post, followed it up with three towny posts, am confident he is town

I called out darg for a shitty post midway through day 1. Here it is, for reference:

I'll be back tomorrow with time...
First, I was trying to be funny, and no one noticed. I was posting with one word. I suppose it says something about what folk expect from me.
It was kind of fun. Mostly it was just reactive posts. I DID have a couple of conversations (accusing Percy Williams of hedging, for instance) that were fun with single words. It actually made me think more about articulation than I am used to...

But in the end it is too hard and not really helpful.

A couple of obvious things to comment on:
Mass claim... while I do think that such a claim MIGHT POSSIBLY help us... mostly the concept has too many faulty underlying beliefs. It assumes a randomness of role that I don't think the GM's would do. It assumes that we will have LOTS of scum making false claims, when there is no reason for them to do so. I think bozo also is assuming (he lists this as a 'pro') that multiple fakeclaiming by lynchable scum is common. I think it happens maybe once or twice per game. So we MIGHT draw out a couple of scum... but mostly, we just give scum a map.

But I am not happy with how hard bozo is pushing for this. He seems to have some hope that he has a chance to succeed. I think bozo is smarter than that. So why does he not back off? Or did I miss a retraction?

Also, regarding D1 voting. I always raise an eyebrow at STRONG statements on D1. People who pretend to KNOW an alignment. Obv, only scum knows alignment.

Lynching lurkers? D1 is almost random voting, or at most, mostly gut feelings. Lurkers are no more or less likely to be scum. Lately, it seems, though that at least one or two scummies hide early in the game. So maybe lynching lurkers increases our odds.

I'll probably be able to read off and on... but won't have time to post much till tomorrow morning.

This post is weird for a lot of reasons. The first reason that I took notice of this post is because he seemed to be fighting back against an accusation that was never made, which, obviously, is not something I expect town to do or even think of doing. That post you made but in hindsight probably could have done without 12 hours ago doesn’t really matter to you when you’re not under fire for it and your goal is to figure out the game. The second reason is because he seemed like he was trying to give bozo an out for things he disagreed with - hey, all you have to do is retract your statement and then we can act like it never happened. The third reason, which I don’t think I made reference to then, is that he seemed to trip himself, saying lurkers are no more likely to be scum than anyone else (true) but that there are probably one or two scum lurkers (also true). He acted like these two things are a conflict. In reality, when you have 6-8 lurkers out of 20 or so players and a scumteam of 5, that’s just math.

So I’m thinking darg is scum. I’m waiting for his reply where he cowers in the corner, or maybe simply never replies at all. Instead, these are his next three posts, in order over a span of minutes:

Maybe this is obv, but it seems that bozo's relentless pursuit of a massclaim makes the most sense if he is the role-thief. One role already responded and claimed mason. And of course, if he DOES convince enough people, he finds a bunch of roles.

Regarding my crappy post... it was an anchoring post, if by anchoring I mean 'knowing I was gone a LOT and wanted to get some things noted."

But reading it this morning, I might vote for me.

My Percy vote at first was clearly a joke vote. Did no one else notice that he was blamed in the flavor for the end of civilization?

I get the policy votes. MF this morning seems reasonable, though.

I do think we need a non-policy option.

Presently, I am clearly not choosing the wine in front of me...

And Percy has seemed more and more questionable to me. In addition to what otehrs have brought up, he seems to be PR fishing... emphasizing clarification of those who have soft-claimed.

So I'll leave it there, for now.

I would also vote for Itshusoko, bozo, or foxy today.

When someone who rolls scum does something blatantly scummy and gets called out for it, I expect a few things. Firstly, I expect their next immediate post to be about the scummy thing. When they read up on the thread, their first thought is about themselves. It’s not about solving the game. They’re going to go through the thread looking for their name, or people referring to their posts, and try and handle that. That is priority number one. Darg’s next post is not only about someone else, but it’s coherent, legitimate analysis of a read on another player. The rationale makes sense. I see no reason that scum would think of this before they think of covering their own ass when they are rejoining the thread after being away.

Secondly, I expect scum to be somewhat defensive, deflective, or to simply deny everything when they get called out for anchoring, hedging, playing hypotheticals, or for just making a scummy post. Darg did all four things in the post I initially referenced, but in this post he skips all those steps and simply accepts criticism. He later even calls it sound reasoning to have voted for him there. Sure, scum could fake this, but in tandem with these other two posts? I doubt it.

Thirdly, and finally, his last of these three posts. This may not be universal, but I don’t like the attention to be on me as town or as mafia. I like to play without that pressure regardless of my role. With this post, darg is showing that he has actually read and caught up on things and expressing his own views on them. In essence, he is redirecting the conversation from his bad post to how to solve the game. However, he is not redirecting the conversation away from himself. This post is all about what he would do and what he thinks. He takes ownership and welcomes *more* criticism/pressure/attention for doing so rather than trying to shed it, but contributes to the game at the same time.

These posts all happened within a span of 7 minutes. This is genuine, townie darg coming out. Hence, darg is town.

[bo_sox48]

flash -

tl;dr — he is apparently sick, has moderately picked up the pace since day 1 but needs lots more

Flash has been extremely quiet and I didn’t even remember that he was playing until I put these isos together. On reread, I found that 13 of his 25 posts have been questions. Only 4 of his posts take up more than one line on my full screen, and 2 of those 4 take up exactly two lines and are formatted as follows:

[blah blah blah]
[&&VOTE player]

My immediate inclination when I see this type of performance is to say that this guy wants nothing more than to coast into and be alive for the late game. I used to think this is a screaming scumtell, and most people who vote for the person with the fewest posts or words or whatever, especially on day 1, obviously think so too. However, I have learned, particularly from captainmeme, that that is not a scummy trait. It’s just a shitty, selfish trait. So we read on.

In my opinion, this is flash’s most valuable post so far:

town rivera wouldbe shot emc at the midpoint of the phase to undo thread being stagnate

The problem with hipfiring is that you can shoot a PR, but on other side pointing a gun to them could force a PR to claim. All in all, I am trying to get reactions that give me a better chance to hit scum.

Why did you tell everyone today you are the vig? I thought it would be better to hide it until later (at least D2) when the potential candidate list is smaller and we have at least some real info.

The reason this is valuable is simple: I find it genuine. I can almost feel flash sitting at the keys, reading rdrivera’s claim, and rolling his eyes. (I’ve never taken him as a slamming the fists on the table kind of person.) It is not necessarily a fact and has certainly been untrue on occasion, but it is more likely than not that a town player would react genuinely to a claim without any semblance of worry as opposed to scum. However, there is one point in this post where I question whether or not it is actually genuine. “I thought it would be better to hide it until later (at least D2)” feels a little bit forced, particularly the parentheses. It also feels like something that might have been edited in on proofread, and I generally don’t think town players tend to proofread. That said, that’s just a little inkling in the back of my mind and I’m still inclined to believe this is genuine.

This post also caught my attention, and not just because I’m in it:

Hey, what's the difference between Flash, and a potato?

I am definitely not brown on the outside, white on the inside. You know that some Asians call each other potato (or banana) as an insult, don't you?

Anyway, sorry I haven't been around much. I must have picked up something while overseas...and haven't been able to really concentrate well yesterday or today (it feels like I am trying to barf up a lung).

Having said that, I did read back a bit what happened at end of day. If there was anything that stood out I didn't like the way bo pushed rdr to rush the vig shot. As we saw it didn't work out too well. If there is a wagon tomorrow on bo, I would be happy to join.

The reason this post catches my attention is because flash has hardly pointed a finger on me on day 2 thus far. I’m on his shitlist on page 96, but that’s it. Instead, he has stuck with an unambitious vote on Percy. It seems odd, and perhaps feels like he opportunistically voted for his teammate early in the day without putting a monumental amount of pressure on him, simply plopping on a wagon that already seemed to be running off the rails but would surely - and has, to a degree - die down. In that event, he will eventually look for a chance to change course. Contrarily, the same explanation fits here if Percy is town - flash opportunistically dropped a needless and meaningless vote somewhere where it could float for a little while, and may eventually change course. It makes him look bad regardless.

Beyond the bits that we can gleam from what he has said, there is very little to gleam from what he has done. Today, as previously referenced, he jumped on the Percy wagon, the fourth vote on it very early in the day. He simply agreed with someone else and parked there. We can interpret it as scummy, but is it? There is no slam dunk here. On day 1, his only vote came 6 minutes into the contest, an obvious joke for someone we now know is clear. It’s a little bit suspect that someone has done so little, but again, I find doing nothing selfish and shitty but not always alignment indicative. He will probably survive into the late game without much fanfare if he is allowed to follow the selfish, shitty strategy, and at that point hopefully there will be more to determine from an iso on him.

[bo_sox48]

foodcoats -

tl;dr — I thought he was scum; I still think he is scum

I voted for foodcoats on day 1. That wagon didn’t really take off. There has been some in and out interest on day 2 but as of right now he has no votes. I’m going to try and change that. I think we have time to give it a shot. That said, I’m going to try and read through this objectively and provide real analysis and commentary.

Foodcoats started this game off more rigidly than most others, and as such I find immense value in his introductory posts (excluding the first, an obvious joke). On page 2, he posts the following:

Lets do things different this game and everyone prepare a mission statement for what kind of town we think this town should be. what values shall we hold dear?

As much as you frequently make me laugh out loud, I would argue that your voluminous shitposting is something that you could avoid this game to help town solve. I realize it's probably a meta play on your part and you won't comply, but as worcej suggested, we need to be focused on solving, and I think a lot of your posts, even already in this game, are little incendiary shots that fuel emotions and not reason.

It would also be beneficial not to pointlessly drive up the page count so we can more easily analyze throughout the game.

This is a very interesting tactic early on in the game. Back in the days of M1-M30ish, there would have been a monstrous hoard of folks coming after foodcoats.

“Why are you stifling discussion?”
“let him FUKCING TALK!!”
“u mad bro”

The first one was ghug, the second one was krellin, and the third one was President Eden, by the way.

In order to understand why stifling discussion in this way was and should still be considered a bad thing, we need to ignore that he’s saying this to brainbomb. Every one of us, brainbomb included, knows why he said this, but it’s a moot point. We need to hear every word from everyone. We need to digest every word and use them. That’s why I’m spending hours rereading lurkers. They need to be heard too. An iso on the loudest mouths would be equally valuable. Moreover, “incendiary shots that fuel emotions and not reason” are the crux of rationality in mafia. Reactions are huge! Not every reaction is equal, and not every incendiary shot that fuel emotions has the same impact, but they can be used in such a significant way. This is not all deduction. This is Diplomacy on steroids.

The value in this post is that the first thing foodcoats thinks when he opens the thread is this:

“I don’t want to read this crap.”

That is not a smoking gun, but I don’t envision foodcoats being a very helpful town player with that attitude.

Right, so worcej wants to help emc hide from the prying eyes of town.

Why are you such a glass half empty person? I am just saying making a push on emc to policy lynch on D1 because of his EOD behaviors in previous games is a little too soon.

I don't have any meta on emc, but irrespective of their previous games, their post is bizarre:

##vote e.m.c

now y'all can't yell at me ;p

This is absolutely useless. emc was on point to be the first poster in the game but neither plain shitposted nor voted randomly. Voting for yourself generates no information for the other players, but if people aren't looking carefully it could appear to exonerate you from the responsibility not to lurk. At a glance it makes you look active in the peterbot even though it is effectively not a real vote.

I think this is the scummiest play so far.

##VOTE e.m.c^42

This is the next foodcoats post in the thread, on page 7, and it does not feel genuine to me. Keeping in mind that emc had not yet dug himself into a hole with his hilariously atrocious defense, I don’t understand the purpose of this vote. It doesn’t read like pressure; contrarily, it reads like this is a final decision. On page 7. After 4 hours of game time.

To explain further, there is a template to applying pressure. The first thing you do is ask a question. It might be a leading question that you could probably just assume, but it might be an objective question that could affect your view. You get the answer to that question and you progressively drill deeper, and deeper, and deeper. You’re looking to get someone to break, or to slip up. You might not know that they slipped up right now, but on day 8 the pieces of the puzzle might be falling in place and that slip up might be the last one. This post, on the other hand, is declarative. It’s written like a “gotcha” moment. This is my opinion, and there is nothing you can do to change my mind, because your actions and previous words are all I’ll listen to. There may be a place for tunnel vision like that, but on page 7? Really?

Reading further, foodcoats changes his vote to worcej.

I decided to iso worcej to figure out why I was feeling weird about his/her play. worcej has been very active but I don't think they've said much. They've mostly discussed mechanics and voting strategy and they've hammed it up a bunch. The thing that bothers me most in the iso is that worcej takes every opportunity to provide description/commentary or to lead people out with questioning, but never really provides their own analysis. It looks insightful at first glance but provides nothing new to the other players.

This is the closest thing to analysis worcej has posted, but it obviously says nothing and appears to just be an in-joke:

24 hours in. My Impressions:
-Fox was early.
-Vapor is all over.
-bo is old.
-Vecna is behaving as ‘normal’
-brain is doing his analysis mode and bouncing
-bozo is all in on a dumb strategy at the cost of all the town’s protection
-new guys have not inspired any real reaction from me
-emc is behaving based on the early pressure
-Percy is easily confused

I think this is scum!worcej trying to go buddy-buddy with the whole squad... and/or roleplay brainbomb to prevent being read.

##VOTE worcej

The content of this post is suspicious. I explained that when I voted for foodcoats on page 44. The context is what I want to point out here, though. The previous voter in the thread was MoscowFleet. He voted for emc, his first vote of the day. That made the vote count 7 on emc and 6 on MoscowFleet. He broke his own tie. Foodcoats tied it again at 6 apiece. On its own, with 7 hours to go in the day, that’s not a big deal. However, he posted this 9 minutes prior:

(foodcoats) also hasn’t updated his EMC vote which is based off of the first post of the game, a shitpost.

As I said, I think self-voting and peacing out is a scummy play, not a shitpost. And emc hasn't given anyone any reasons to move off them... I think the below summarizes how emc has responded to the wagon:

I feel like I need to post something at least mildly useful, but am drawing a blank atm.

Regarding worcej:

In his last post, he asks brain what made him suspicious of worcej, right after listing why he thinks worcej is suspicious. What’s the point?

The point of asking other players what they think is to create meaningful conversation, compare notes, and develop reads.

I am not voting for MF, but I think MF's analysis of my iso vindicates them and they should not be "policy lynched;" it is one of the best posts so far (even if MF's conclusions about me are wrong ).

According to foodcoats, MoscowFleet is absolutely positively not going to get his vote. So why jump off the wagon that was at that point in time poised to save MoscowFleet and start a new one? That seems counterproductive at best and like an attempt to save emc at worst. That would make his vote on page 7 a bus, and this vote an attempt to back off with 7 hours to go.

On the other hand, this might be genuine. The case on worcej was flimsy, to put it nicely, as I explained on page 44. That does not mean that it was not a genuine attempt to get something started. He may not have been aware of the vote count and the ramifications his change presented, or he may not have cared. It’s difficult to know, and that’s why these analyses are just pieces of a puzzle and not the entire puzzle all on their own. Regardless, it is important that this context be out in the open, especially given the issues I took with his change of heart to begin with.

To that point, I said I would provide objective analysis and commentary, so I’m not going to withhold information to match my agenda. With 13 minutes to go in the phase, foodcoats switched his vote back to emc to break a 3-3 tie between him and Percy. He did not change his vote again. Likewise, there were numerous other wagons with a single vote on which he could park his vote, and doing so would have put that wagon within a vote of the lead, thus legitimizing it. If emc is scum, that makes foodcoats look pretty good. As such, I’m not confident that they could be scum together, and given my opinion on foodcoats it should go without saying that I do not think emc is scum.

Regardless, I feel this case is strong and I feel it has a better shot than my other primary scumread at the moment. ##VOTE foodcoats

[bo_sox48]

Chaqa -

tl;dr — his inactivity is the worst kind of lurking, the scummy lurking I look for on day 1

Chaqa had 16 posts in the pregame thread. He has 36 so far in the game thread. I don’t know about the meaning of that ratio - may not be any meaning to it - but it rubs me the wrong way. So I’m starting out this iso having been rubbed the wrong way. Keep that in mind.

Chaqa posted 7 times between game start and page 20. His first 7 posts were all either jokes or sarcastic. The only valuable insight I see out of his first 7 posts is that he doesn’t like the mass claim, so we’ve got that. And then:

Maybe I’m just rusty, but bozo is putting off some super scum vibes to me. Between the terrible massclaim idea and his Lynch pool being seemingly everyone who hasn’t yet voted (plus Vecna for some reason?), I don’t understand his motivations whatsoever.

Is this how he normally plays?

This is a good post. There is actually substance to it. However, I have stumbled across a pattern that I think is significant in my way too many games of mafia on webDiplomacy. I don’t think I have ever shared it before, but it is one of my “tells” - a list of things people do that I think are alignment indicative whether they even realize they’re doing it or not. One of those things is asking for validation instead of asking for explanation, and that’s exactly what Chaqa does here.

This is how the thought process works:

You are mafia. You know your role, you know your teammates. You’ve been sliding by so far but it’s time to do something. Something soft, and easy, that won’t bite you in the ass later. So you see something that someone - probably not your teammate, that would be dumb to go softly after right away, it’s clear bussing - does, and you take aim at it. Let’s see, bozo put out a bad idea, and his lynch pool is bad. Awesome! Those are both legit, rational things to criticize someone for early in the game. This is perfect.

But wait - you don’t want to be the guy leading this charge. You can throw a left hook, but it’s gotta be 50%, no more. You’re not trying to be Mike Tyson right now, so you don’t want to make yourself look like Mike. So type out your post. It’s short and sweet, it gets the job done, it’s not particularly memorable but when someone sees you later they’re gonna say “oh, okay, cool.”

Finally, you’ve gotta make yourself feel comfortable. You’re not on the prowl. What better way to feel comfortable than to avoid actually attacking the person you’re criticizing? You’re not going for bozo right now, you’re just trying to do something safely and quietly.

“Is this how he normally plays?”

You’re not going to get an answer. Nobody is going to go out of their way to explain bozo’s meta, whatever it even is, and cite page numbers and game numbers and link it all up for you. This is your get out of jail free card. If you’re wrong, all you’re doing is thinking out loud. But if you’re right, god dammit, you were fucking right!

Here’s an example. If I ended this segment with this, what would you think?

“I feel like this is a scumtell. Don’t you all think so?”

See how scummy it is? I’m leaving the door open to take ownership if I’m right, but I’ve got my escape route. Your disagreement could be my out.

“Ah, yeah, you might be right. I guess that thing I said that makes or breaks my entire game so far doesn’t make much sense after all. Just forget about it.”

If I ended this segment with this instead, would it be different?

“This is a scumtell. You won’t convince me otherwise.”

It’s different to me. This is mine. I own it, right or wrong, better or worse.

Anyway. Here’s another unrelated post of his later:

Sigh. Why the hell shoot Moscow? Did I miss something?

Given we now know Rivera is town for sure, I like my bo vote more, but I would also be willing to follow the confirm town’s lead if we get down to a tiebreak type situation, as I do find bozo a bit scummy for his mass claim idea and some poor reads, IMO.

I feel similar about this post as I did the first one. It doesn’t fit my mold for scumtells quite as beautifully, but it lacks accountability. Vote for me, Chaqa! Do it! It’s all on you.

On the other hand, rdrivera had just fired his shot and voted bozo in the same post. Chaqa had earlier, as you know if you’ve read this far, made his case on bozo and sticks with the same one here. He’s not taking credit for it, but he’s not dismissing that it is his own view, so perhaps I am reading with confirmation bias at this point and making a mountain out of a molehill. Perhaps this post is genuine, and perhaps Chaqa has become a follower in his advanced age. I don’t think so, but it’s possible.

The tone of this post is different than the others I have written. There’s a reason for that. As I mentioned at the beginning, I have not felt good about Chaqa since the minute I started reviewing his game so far. I’ve also written a lot of these now, so I’m getting tired, and when I get tired I get more “HA, EUREKA” instead of letting you develop your own opinions based on my analysis. There is certainly one thing that I can explain, though, in the same analytical tone as before, and without making assumptions. As such, let me explain what I mean when I say “scummy lurking.”

There’s three types of lurking: a) you’re lurking because you’re town, unsure, and lacking confidence; b) you’re lurking because you’re scum, sure, and don’t want to be drawn into the open; or c) you don’t have time to play. I think we can effectively rule out option a because this is typically characterized by timidity. Often times a new player will go this route. Chaqa is not timid. He has some swagger here, as evidenced by his sarcasm and blow-you-off attitude to those who bugged him in the early game. He’s not shy. He’s just not posting a ton. That doesn’t rule him out being town, it just rules him out being an option a lurker.

Option c is a little trickier to deduce an alignment from because the mafia team is generally not filled with idiots. They know that we can’t always keep track of everyone, and sometimes you can slip through the cracks by just not showing your face. Likewise, town players aren’t stupid either. Some option c lurkers genuinely don’t have time to play, or lack the energy to keep up and quickly fall off the pace. They’re still town. Others follow the aforementioned selfish and shitty strategy wherein if you leave no trace you’ll never be found. They just want to live until the point in the game that they find most enjoyable - the end, after everyone else that’s actually here and playing has done all the hard work for them. Regardless, still town.

Thus, option b requires in depth analysis of all the option c players. You have to read them, and understand them. By stepping into their shoes and asking “why are they doing this, why now, and why in this way?” you can become in tune with their thought process. It’s almost the exact same as reading someone with 300 posts a day. The only difference is that you’re reading less, and having to make larger logical leaps with each breadcrumb they leave behind because there just aren’t many of them. It’s tough.

I think Chaqa hits option b on the head. I can only vote for one at a time, though.

[worcej]

The masons can very easily prove to us they're town: they post the exact same longish thing at the exact same time which they coordinate in their QT.

The only way this fails is if they have already prepared this at night, but that would require me to be scum with them to bring up the idea. (Highly unlikely they have already prepared a time they will post the identical same thing unless I'm a part of the ploy.)

This has to be done today, otherwise they will have the night to coordinate.

Maybe this has already happened, but it definitely is a way to clear and reveal our masons.

However, Hosuke did comment their time zone difference is an issue, which would be a clever way to cover themselves from this.