Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Well that shot is bizarre. Wasn't me, unless the GMs have given me hidden powers and Ezio was the "1 guest" I referred to above.

I think that the person who shot Ezio needs to come forward and tell us why, or else the GS needs to bring them forward. There was no chance for Ezio to claim a PR, and so it very much looks like Cop hunting to me. Since there is no Thief, GS knows who took that shot.

[Hellenic Riot]

##GM Note: Shots can still be scheduled, yes. A shot can either be fired immediately or at X time, with the obvious caveats that if a GM is not available at said time, it will be as soon after X as is feasible. Shots cannot be made or scheduled for the final 10 minutes of a phase.

[Foxcastle]

Tom, to actually answer your question on Tham (and please disregard my previous placeholder read of him)... I read Tham as slight scum.

His D1 is actually pretty good and consistent. He jumps on ND at a moment when it puts distance between Jamiet and the lynch, but he's been scumreading ND just as much as Jamiet, and townreading Balki (the other option). There are some other small things (scumreads Jamiet one minute, then turns around and asks him what he's leaning; wondering why Jamiet hasn't responded or defended himself 3 minutes out from lynch, which could uncharitably be characterized as trying to get people to back of Jamiet), but on the whole, Tham's D1 is pretty plausibly town.

But then Saint Brainbomb the Innocent calls him out on Page 30 for his vote on ND, basically accusing him of voting based on a metaread of ND, when he was voting for ND because he was voting based on metareads.

At which point, Thamrick jumps like a fish caught on a line. "I get it. I look fishy. If I have to die for the health of the town, so be it."

That's pretty dramatic stuff. He goes on quite extensively justifying himself. And mostly it's newish justification about who is on what wagon, but it's not inconsistent with his other scumreads, and it's the kind of stuff about how one thinks about wagons that one doesn't write down in the EOD madness. Still, it looks weird to have this reaction to a pretty simple call out from Brain. It looks guilty to me.

Also, as part of that, he starts to back off Rjm to avoid "unfairly tunneling."

But then, he doesn't, since on page 32, he points to some Rjm posts he finds "really weird and forced" and asks Rjm for an explanation.

Page 35, he says he'd vote for Vash. And then on 38 says, "I'd shoot Vash, then rjmcf." On Page 43, End of Night 1, he scumreads both Vash and Rjm. Page 50 "I'm reading every post of rjmcf's as scummy. I don't think he's the best lynch today, but I certainly don't trust him."

Then on Page 61 (a full day out from lynch), he scumreads Rjm pretty hard. "Seriously, you're scummy af Rjmcf. Ughhh. Every time I try to start townreading you, you blow up some irrational and pointless post. I'm sticking with my gut. You're scum." On Page 65, maybe backs of Vash a little, "Initially, I liked a Vash vote. I'm not so sure now." and then reviews Bozo's Vash vote and calss it "unsubstantial." But also clarifies "I don't have a strong position against a Vashta lynch."

His EOD2 progression starts out with a Yavuz vote 44 minutes out, based on previous threads on Yavuz and Jamie being connected. At that point he is the only Yavuz vote, and no one else will vote for Yavuz that day.

Tham backs off of Rjm on Page 73 (16 minutes to lynch, still on Yavuz). Tham says "I tend to agree re: rj - feels to scummy to actually be scum." I believe he's agreeing with Balki (21 minutes out) saying that Rjm is too "vomit on the page" to be new scum; but Brainbomb also calls the Rjm wagon gross right before Tham's comment.

The Vash wagon comes up at 9 minutes to lynch, with DemonRHK, Bozo jumps off to Tom, Balki jumps on, Brainbomb, Bozo jumps back on, and Tham at 8 minutes out with no explanation. He makes a comment, "I would've liked rd to be in the pool" but otherwise doesn't say anything until the lynch goes up.

So his votes are pretty consistent with where's he been scumreading. Sure, I find it suspicious that he was on Rjm D1 and scumread Rjm 24 hours out, and didn't land on him at any point on D2; and though he doesn't explain the Vash vote in the moment, he has made his thoughts on Vash clear prior. I find the Page 30 breakdown a little suspicious, and have a vague gut feeling that he could be scum (that I have for DemonRHK and had for Brainbomb, so... could just be indigestion).

[Balki Bartokomous]

Who shot Ezio?

[VashtaNeurotic]

I dunno but perhaps the GS could enlighten us at the end of the night.

[Maniac]

Ok - that changes things a little. I need to re-access

[VashtaNeurotic]

So I guess Ezio should just avoid any game where guns get given out.

[thamrick]

Before we force out a PR, can we think through fully why Ezio might have been shot?

*Edit - Vash - do you think there is a pro-town reason why Ezio was shot? Also, if GS does claim today, he still gets to give a gun out tonight unless mafia RB's. With as many potential real claims as we have out right now, would it be the worst to force a mafia RB on the GS (which I don't think they'd do so the gun would go out anyways)?

[thamrick]

@Foxy - decent write up. No comments about N2? D3? I feel like I've been pretty vocal. Want to get your opinion on the record? Why stop at D2?

Also, who justifies their EoD votes?

[VashtaNeurotic]

Oh I don't think any townie would shoot Ezio like that, not anyone that would have been trusted with a gun anyway.

[thamrick]

Oh I don't think any townie would shoot Ezio like that, not anyone that would have been trusted with a gun anyway.

Okay. I agree. I can't think of much pro-town reason. So why wait til EoN for GS to reveal? If we agree the shot isn't pro-town and the shooter doesn't come forward, they seem like a good candidate to string up.

[Balki Bartokomous]

There is just very little chance that a Townie shot Ezio before giving him an opportunity to claim a PR. We need this info to inform our lynch today, and honestly we have enough PRs right now that I think it's a net positive to trade the identity of our GS to catch 1 of 3 remaining scum, or at least to give us a ton of important info.

We're ahead, and we have a lot of info in various Town silos, I think it's time to start bringing information to the light.

[bozotheclown]

That came out of nowhere. Ezio has bad luck with guns.

yavuzovic, did you shoot Ezio again?

[MeanLaQueefa]

Balki, actually think things through.

MLQ: "Now that I've got 4 votes, I feel like I should start defending myself because no one else is going to."

Balki: "This is called appeal to emotion. When you don't have the facts on your side, you try to trigger heart strings."

How is this an appeal to emotion? I was just saying why I was going to start defending myself, even though no one was directly asking me questions. If I've got 4 votes on me, it is probably time to start defending myself, don't you think?

I understand that you can argue two sides to why I didn't vote for the two scum in the lynches, either I'm a towny and stuck to my reads that were flawed or I'm scum who wasn't willing to bus their team. It is simple, but I'd argue that it'd have been simpler, easier and put me in a better position if I'd just hopped on both scum wagons at the end if I knew they were going to flip because I was scum.

Occam's razor is great and all, but the first problem with it in this game is that scum can engineer the simplest explanation to be that they're town fairly easily with the information they have (bussing is a great example), while town don't usually have the luxury of that information. Plus, even using Occam's razor, I'd say that me killing brainbomb because he claimed ANOTHER PR role isn't the simplest explanation. I don't think anyone bought his claim for a second, maniac openly ridiculed it before end of day. If I was scum, and tom was innocent, he was a better bet if you were aiming for a cop claimer, but I don't think scum bought either claim. The thought that you'd think that if I'm scum I'd have bought that so much that I'd kill my biggest town reader is extremely far fetched. Then you have to consider that the mafia had to turn around their vote in about 20 mins at EoN, and I wasn't even around for it. I didn't read any cop claims, tom or brain's until several hours into the next day. I said that before, I don't know how I can prove it, but it happened.

Balki: "Also, MLQ says that she would never kill brainbomb because brainbomb would be defending her right now.

Here is the last brainbomb read on the scum team:

brainbomb wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:03 pm
My analysis of both RJ and Jamie ISO puts scumteam at

{Ezio-yavuz--thamrick-MLQ}

Rubbish."

This isn't true either, brainbomb made several posts after this, and a couple mentioned theories about my innocence. He did a scene from the mafia qt with tom, tham, demon and ezio after he said this. He also made a post after that where he listed wolf candidates as tom, tham, reedeer, yav, demon and myself, where he gave reasons for their wolfness in reference to his who to shoot list from a while back, he bolded me but gave no reasoning. He had a lot of scum reads and was clearly going through a reevaluation process like I was after the rjm lynch. He made enough posts about my innocence and his read of me prior to the rjm lynch was about the most town you could give a non-clear person, he would have come around again.

I really think you're not viewing me evenhandedly balki, I know there are things that you can argue might make me scum, but those things are all WIFOM, because I know there's nothing that actually can prove I'm scum because I'm not. Look back and me with a clear head and I think you can see that all my actions can be explained from me being town. I understand why you're skeptical, but I'm very much not scum.

And about Ezio, I have no idea why he'd get killed by either side. I'd lean that some towny may have done it though because I feel like a mafia would have shot manaic or tried for the real gunsmith (maybe they thought it was ezio?) if they were going to use a bullet that could be traced back to them.

[MeanLaQueefa]

Also I will participate as much as I can today, because tomorrow I have to work from early on until an hour after EoD, so I won't be on for that. If you're going to ask me questions, please ask them now.

[Maniac]

So Ezio's death is odd.

I'm clear and have a deadpool that shooter went outside off. Why? The could be town trusting their own reads (fair play to them). Wouldn't scum have just shot any townie in my deadpool?

Whatever the reason I don't think GS should claim.

I'm not going to comment more about if or when I'm going to use my gun.

[thamrick]

Where is ol' Yavvy? He's been way too quiet today for being pretty universally scumread. MLQ gives him a town nod. Foxy and rdrivera give him a null

[DemonRHK]

So Ezio's death is odd.

I'm clear and have a deadpool that shooter went outside off. Why? The could be town trusting their own reads (fair play to them). Wouldn't scum have just shot any townie in my deadpool?

Whatever the reason I don't think GS should claim.

I'm not going to comment more about if or when I'm going to use my gun.

Just make sure when you fire you leave us enough time to sort the aftermath out.

[rdrivera2005]

Well, I can't think a reason for a town to shot Ezio this way. Yav did it last game but it was a completely different context.
What I think happened is that a scum under heavy pressure had a gun and decide to take a risk shooting Ezio hoping to hit a PR and to out the GS. So, I would think MLQ or Demon are the biggest suspects.

[thamrick]

@Mean - Bo asked you:

They're already at a huge disadvantage and they know they can't win if the cop lives for much longer, outing the cop is their win condition now that the witch is dead, can't you see that?

How does this work? Walk me through it from Tom’s perspective. Scum drops two, takes down a PR on night 1, and then decides to… uh… sacrifice themselves?

I also am interested in an explanation.

I find it interesting that you say we don't touch RHK until someone CCs his claim but you say we lynch Tom.