MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[Squigs44]

The bolded bit, what do you think? Should we be focusing lynches in a certain pool of players?

Well, lets do some math.

Let us assume for the moment that Attorney is town and is telling the truth that he is non-con. This means that there are 3 scum among the con claimants, and only 1 among the non-cons. Of the conservatives, there are 4 backbenchers, 2 PRs, and three scum. Lets also assume that we will never lynch a PR because they will claim before their death (a lot of assumptions here, but just bear with me). So we have 7 remaining cons who are up for lynch. Let's say we employ the tactic that we only focus on cons. Let's look at worst case scenario:

Day 2: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 2: Conservative PR is killed
Day 3: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 3: Conservative PR is killed
Day 4: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 4: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 5: Lynch town con backbencher
Night 5: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 6: Lynch scum con claimant
Night 6: Noncon PR is killed.
Day 7: Lynch scum con claimant
Night 7: SNP backbencher killed
Day 8: Lynch last scum con claimant
Night 8: Labour backbencher killed

Even at worst case scenario, this leaves us with 4 labour backbenchers, 1 scum.
Now, there are a LOT of variables that go into this that you cannot account for all of them. But, in general, reducing the pool of cons for most of the mafia to hide in will make it very very difficult for scum to hide end game. If the party cop can catch a scum among the non-cons, that will likely be auto-win for town, unless there are two scums who claimed non-con (which with our current claims seems unlikely). The journalist can also expose a scum, or give another clear to town.

TL;DR: Even if we hit 4 town cons in a row with the strategy of only going after cons, that will ensure that we get all of the scum that claimed con after that and put us in a good position for the end game.

Seems kinda legit, I feel like scum isn't going to kill in the conservative pool though, why would they not try to have town spend some more lynches on town PR and kill some non conservatives?

Well, this is going off the assumption that the conservative PR's are uncc'd and clear. Big assumption there. In that case, scum will want to kill them off before the more ambiguous labour back benchers (but could be interchangeable with the non-con PR's). Like I said, there are a lot of variables at play here, so we can't forecast every little detail, but in general, this strategy will lead us to a guaranteed elimination of the scum who have claimed conservative and leave us with 0-2 scum in a larger pool of non-cons.

[Squigs44]

@Ike - your latest reads has Ezio as a scum. Since then he has claimed Mrs May. This leaves your scumpile to 5, 3 of which are non-cons.

Where are your reads at now with the new information?

[RagingIke297]

@Ike - your latest reads has Ezio as a scum. Since then he has claimed Mrs May. This leaves your scumpile to 5, 3 of which are non-cons.

Where are your reads at now with the new information?

Still similar, I need to sort through my town pile with a little bit more than just what I remember lazy reads and get some high conviction stuff. After this I'll probably bump you up a little, but Fox is doing what he does as scum and ND is way chiller than normal

[ND]

I'm gonna do some chill deep dives tomorrow bros

[xorxes]

We're screwed if one scum like xorxes has infiltrated

Based on his plan, he's secure to final phases.

Mwahahaha!

Seriously though, if there's a deep threat it would have to be among the non-cons, con claimants are either PRs or they're going to be lynched.

If all scum have claimed conservative they might as well concede at this point.

My current guess is Attorney, Nephthys, Ike, rd, but it doesn't matter if one or more of them are backbenchers we still have lots of time to go through the rest.

[e.m.c^42]

@EMC - what do you think of Neph's reads? Also, what do you think of Ezio's case against Neph? And what do you think of xorxes' case against Attorney?

Lol, response time! (gonna separate into different posts)

atm, rereading both of them, they're both scumreading each other rather hard ---so it's a bit difficult for me to shake the feeling that they're both biased lol
but that's not necessarily indicative of anything, other than they might be scum
reading each other...influenced by the fact that they scumread each other xD

On Neph's reads, I do agree they're shallower than usual, but I was live when he started typing/posting; so the lack of time reasoning is plausible as an excuse.

for the EON wall; I will say that yes, what he said Ezio did did happen, but I'm not too sure about the scum part of it. Ezio taken early Day 1 is a bit meh, since I don't understand his mechanics (or why he thought the other plan was better, since it seemed to be based on faulty logic), although I can get his last post about Attorney/rdr that was referenced by Neph---the part about bb and Attorney treating it "like a ratrace", but it's a bit of selective focusing(?)

regarding the day 2 nephsWall extends Ezio, none of it is particularly outrageous. However, I don't really like how he goes " couldn't give less of a shit who you are voting", but do agree with the motivations aspect. And again, Neph focused on the 2nd part of Ezio's reasoning for voting Attorney then, which I took to be mainly due to the "ratracing" and "worry over 2nd wagon"---but what Neph focused on I do agree with, don't really see how asking quiet players to come online be scum indicative, especially as Attorney hasn't played with the majority of players here.

[e.m.c^42]

Oops, italic was a formatting error, they don't mean anything xD

regarding the other aspects of Neph's reads (this is mostly for Squigs lol, since you used me as an example), found his thoughts regarding me accurate enough---since it's in comparison to last game (the only reference there is for me haha)

really can't judge whether they are surface level or not; since I think I'm surface level (or inane tinfoiling) only kek

but there's nothing that's exceptionally objectionable to

[bozotheclown]

The things I found oddest about day 1 was that the votes stayed constant for about 2 hours starting 2.5 hours before EOD, then brainbomb self voted and stated he was scum, and the result was 4 players changing their vote from Attorney to rdrivera. For whatever reason, these players were dedicated to not lynching brainbomb.

The way this is stated makes it sound like you think brainbomb's self vote was the cause for people to switch their votes. Was this just worded weird or do you think that his self vote actually caused people to switch, and if so, why?

I did not mean to imply it was the cause, but what I found odd is that none of these players switched to him instead of rdrivera.

[flash2015]

@emc, why do you use "kek" so much?

[Attorney]

I hardclaim noncon.

[e.m.c^42]

@emc, why do you use "kek" so much?

Oh, I've been spending too much time talking with friends who game haha--it's an alternate way of "lol'ing"

[e.m.c^42]

oh yeah, never posted rest of response, lemme do that

[ND]

kek lol

[xorxes]

I hardclaim noncon.

Party Cop will visit you tonight to verify your claim.

In the meantime, who are your scum picks?

[RagingIke297]

Does someone have the list of claims by order they came in?

[xorxes]

Does someone have the list of claims by order they came in?

Conservative:
brainbomb
xorxes
Durga
flash
rdrivera
Attorney (retracted today)
damo
Ike
Ezio
Nephthys
Tom

Non-conservative:
ND
Squigs
Percy
Vapor
emc
worcej
bozo
Fox
tham
Vecna

[Attorney]

I hardclaim noncon.

Party Cop will visit you tonight to verify your claim.

In the meantime, who are your scum picks?

fox
ike
neph
posiblly tom and rd
flash

[flash2015]

@emc, why do you use "kek" so much?

Oh, I've been spending too much time talking with friends who game haha--it's an alternate way of "lol'ing"

I know that comes from Wow. I ask because it is irrelevant to the game...but it has other political connotations.

[xorxes]

I hardclaim noncon.

Party Cop will visit you tonight to verify your claim.

In the meantime, who are your scum picks?

fox
ike
neph
posiblly tom and rd
flash

OK, vote for one of the con claims, we're not lynching noncons today-

[Attorney]

wait no
so rd is conftown for being eu negotiator right?