Mini Mafia 1018 - Race with the Devil [hidden]

[Maniac]

Just wanted to look back at final reads of the deceased and who killed them.

I'll share because I want to: ghug, Chaqa, rdr, Bona.

WorceJ was killed by BobMcBob celaph Maniac Chaqa Vecna rdrivera2005

In the unlikely event Chaqa does end up convincing Ghug to NK me tonight:

Reread my posts a few pages back while I was talking back and forth with Bob.

My main thought currently is that its Ghug + Chaqa. They are also the only scum pairing that would actually kill me here, so if I end up dying, dont let chaqa use his weak wifom to make you believe they would never kill me, after ive been tunneling them. They would. Because they know this train has left the station and aint slowing down. Other scum teams wouldnt, because they would be fine to have me continue the deathtunnel, and then get killed the day after for being wrong.

Im also still vastly underwhelmed by Rdrivera. Noone would currently hire him to be their spokesperson. But he's currently all about killing Ghug, so how can I be opposed.

I dont really care about the order. Keep killing ghugs and chaqas untill one flips scum and my theory is disproven. I do feel that Ghug is the more likely GF of the two since it was jamiet at the receiving end.

Vecna was killed by scum.

<snip>

I think Kak and Bona are my strongest town.

Overall, just nervous about a Chaqa/ghug, but not the most likely. Also have some eyes on a possible Rdr/Bob. Lastly, I think Maniac/Not ghug is not a bad pairing to consider.

Celaph was killed by scum

essentially my poe is chaqa, ghug, maniac, celaph

Bona was killed by Chaqa, Ghug, Maniac and Kakarroto

Kakarroto: "So it's between Bob, ghug and Chaqa for me."

Kakarroto was killed by scum.

[ghug]

I love how Maniac presents information he's presented before for the same purpose as if it's brand new information he's just discovered.

Let's look at others:
Foxcastle thought my play war towny but had some reservations. Felt similarly about Vecna. Didn't have a full set of reads post-lfischl flip.
Celaph thought Chaqa/ghug was unlikely, rdr Bob was possible, and Maniac/not ghug made sense.
Bona scumread Chaqa, townread rd.
Kak thought it was between me, Bob, and Chaqa.

[Maniac]

I love how Ghug spins whatever I say. Did I say this was all new info? No. Some of it is and it’s now collated together.

@ghug - I know it’s you plus someone, but I also know I’m not going to get rest of town to kill you today so I’ll concentrate on your scum buddy. I think that’s Bob more by process of elimination than anything. If I’m right and we’re both alive tomorrow we can them duke it out. I expect you’ll kill me but that’s fine as long as remaining town read this: IF WE MAKE IT TO THE LAST DAY KILL GHUG.

[ghug]

I love how Ghug spins whatever I say. Did I say this was all new info? No. Some of it is and it’s now collated together.

@ghug - I know it’s you plus someone, but I also know I’m not going to get rest of town to kill you today so I’ll concentrate on your scum buddy. I think that’s Bob more by process of elimination than anything. If I’m right and we’re both alive tomorrow we can them duke it out. I expect you’ll kill me but that’s fine as long as remaining town read this: IF WE MAKE IT TO THE LAST DAY KILL GHUG.

I'm not spinning shit. You've argued that we should trust Vecna and worcej before, drawing the conclusions directly. You didn't cite any other dead players' reads, and you left the conclusion as an exercise to the reader as if you were just providing information and not making a point. It's disingenuous.

[rdrivera2005]

I love how Ghug spins whatever I say. Did I say this was all new info? No. Some of it is and it’s now collated together.

@ghug - I know it’s you plus someone, but I also know I’m not going to get rest of town to kill you today so I’ll concentrate on your scum buddy. I think that’s Bob more by process of elimination than anything. If I’m right and we’re both alive tomorrow we can them duke it out. I expect you’ll kill me but that’s fine as long as remaining town read this: IF WE MAKE IT TO THE LAST DAY KILL GHUG.

I can easily be convinced to vote Ghug and I am town. And I am not totally convinced about Bob.

[Chaqa]

I’m quite willing to die on the hill that ghug is town

If he’s got me he’s got me

[Chaqa]

I think maniac and Bob or Rdr and Bob or Bob and Maniac

[BobMcBob]

I think maniac and Bob or Rdr and Bob or Bob and Maniac

three very unique scumteams youve got there

[ghug]

I think maniac and Bob or Rdr and Bob or Bob and Maniac

three very unique scumteams youve got there

He townreads me so strongly he felt the need to proclaim it in two different ways.

[ghug]

I still just don't really get why you stopped considering me as an option, Chaqa.

[Maniac]

I love how Ghug spins whatever I say. Did I say this was all new info? No. Some of it is and it’s now collated together.

@ghug - I know it’s you plus someone, but I also know I’m not going to get rest of town to kill you today so I’ll concentrate on your scum buddy. I think that’s Bob more by process of elimination than anything. If I’m right and we’re both alive tomorrow we can them duke it out. I expect you’ll kill me but that’s fine as long as remaining town read this: IF WE MAKE IT TO THE LAST DAY KILL GHUG.

I can easily be convinced to vote Ghug and I am town. And I am not totally convinced about Bob.

With chaqa ruling Ghug out o just can’t see a Ghug kill happening. I suppose you, me and Bob could kill Ghug but I’m more certain chaqa Is just misguided town at this point. If chaqa thinks it’s maniac/Bob or Rdr/Bob and you and I think it could be Ghug/Bob then Bob is the best kill today. I really worry that you or I then die tonight and Chaqa doesn’t kill Ghug tomorrow, but I can’t see any other way today resolves. I still put Ghug/bob ahead of Chaqa/Bob so a chaqa kill really doesn’t appeal to me. And obviously I’m never voting Rdriveria today unless I have to save myself.

[Maniac]

I’m quite willing to die on the hill that ghug is town

If he’s got me he’s got me

I feel the same way about Rdriveria.

Today is all about town finding just one scumbo so as long as we can agree on that then we can let tomorrow take care of itself.

[Chaqa]

I still just don't really get why you stopped considering me as an option, Chaqa.

Find a game where I read you wrong when I'm town.

I don't think you'll find one in the last like... 3 years.

[Chaqa]

##Vote rdrivera

Executive decision. I'll explain a bit over the next few posts

[BobMcBob]

##Vote rdrivera

Executive decision. I'll explain a bit over the next few posts

im... interested

[Maniac]

##Vote rdrivera

Executive decision. I'll explain a bit over the next few posts

Looks like indecision to me

[rdrivera2005]

I love how Ghug spins whatever I say. Did I say this was all new info? No. Some of it is and it’s now collated together.

@ghug - I know it’s you plus someone, but I also know I’m not going to get rest of town to kill you today so I’ll concentrate on your scum buddy. I think that’s Bob more by process of elimination than anything. If I’m right and we’re both alive tomorrow we can them duke it out. I expect you’ll kill me but that’s fine as long as remaining town read this: IF WE MAKE IT TO THE LAST DAY KILL GHUG.

I can easily be convinced to vote Ghug and I am town. And I am not totally convinced about Bob.

With chaqa ruling Ghug out o just can’t see a Ghug kill happening. I suppose you, me and Bob could kill Ghug but I’m more certain chaqa Is just misguided town at this point. If chaqa thinks it’s maniac/Bob or Rdr/Bob and you and I think it could be Ghug/Bob then Bob is the best kill today. I really worry that you or I then die tonight and Chaqa doesn’t kill Ghug tomorrow, but I can’t see any other way today resolves. I still put Ghug/bob ahead of Chaqa/Bob so a chaqa kill really doesn’t appeal to me. And obviously I’m never voting Rdriveria today unless I have to save myself.

I just don't understand your logic. If you are town here and are sure Ghug is scum we need to kill him today. If we don't kill him today he just kill one of us at night and he won't be killed.

Seems like you are just going for the easiest way (no one really townreads Bob).

[rdrivera2005]

##Vote rdrivera

Executive decision. I'll explain a bit over the next few posts

im... interested

Me too.

[Maniac]

I can easily be convinced to vote Ghug and I am town. And I am not totally convinced about Bob.

With chaqa ruling Ghug out o just can’t see a Ghug kill happening. I suppose you, me and Bob could kill Ghug but I’m more certain chaqa Is just misguided town at this point. If chaqa thinks it’s maniac/Bob or Rdr/Bob and you and I think it could be Ghug/Bob then Bob is the best kill today. I really worry that you or I then die tonight and Chaqa doesn’t kill Ghug tomorrow, but I can’t see any other way today resolves. I still put Ghug/bob ahead of Chaqa/Bob so a chaqa kill really doesn’t appeal to me. And obviously I’m never voting Rdriveria today unless I have to save myself.

I just don't understand your logic. If you are town here and are sure Ghug is scum we need to kill him today. If we don't kill him today he just kill one of us at night and he won't be killed.

Seems like you are just going for the easiest way (no one really townreads Bob).

What’s the alternative? Say you, me and Bob vote Ghug. Chaqa and Ghug vote for you or me. Do you trust Bob to not slide of Ghug with seconds to go? We’d be handing the game to someone no one is townreading. That can’t be good play.

[Chaqa]

Sidenote: I think Fox got killed because he was on the Lfischl wagon, and not because of Doc suspicion. The fact that celaph was roleblocked supports this. This increases my belief the scum got lucky and it was not some crumb-detective amazing play.

Likewise, I think the mafia continued to roleblock celaph once the doctor was dead, with no better ideas, and figured if they had picked right, then things were great, and got lucky.

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ghug
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I have a really good track record reading ghug. I don't know if it's 100%, but it's damn near close. I've been getting town pings on him since like Day 2 when I subbed in. The only world where it's ghug to me is if it's ghug-Maniac and I've been double-bigbrained bamboozled. If so, hat's off to them. The biggest thing going against (but also somewhat for) ghug is Day 1. I think scum!ghug busses Lfischl there, but maybe scum!ghug actually doesn't. I'm unsure.

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Ghug<==>Rivera
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I think this pairing makes no sense. Rivera calls out ghug for ghug's vote on me after I subbed in, and pushed ghug on Day 2 as well.

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Rivera
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Rivera's original reasoning for voting Jamie was pretty weak:

yeah, right before proof
would you prefer me to vote somewhere else?
who do you scumread?

You seem to be tryharding and your unexplained vote on me was annoying.

Rdrivera seems to be lurking hard so I'm also leaning scum on him.

Kak's entrance felt very reminiscent of his entrance last time when he was scum, so, maybe?

Why do you think I am lurking hard? And why you think it's scum indicative for me?

You seems to be trying too hard to get reasons to scum read people.

##vote Jamiet

But if it's because he missed EoD and never updated his vote.. maybe.

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Maniac
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The biggest things in Maniac's favor for being town are that he made a decisive vote D1 on scum, and that he was roleblocked the night celaph died. I think these two things combined are enough to make him lower in my PoE. I think the most likely time he's scum is where it's ghug-Maniac.

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Onward
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With town read on ghug and a mild town/logical town lean on Maniac, that leaves Bob and Rivera.

Additionally, if ghug-Rivera doesn't seem to be a team in the world I'm wrong about ghug, then if ghug is bad his teammate has to be Bob.

So, the correct vote is either Bob (if Bob-Rivera or Bob-ghug) or Rivera (if Bob-Rivera or rivera-Maniac), and I'm a little stronger on ghug being town, which means covering the unlikely case (rivera-Maniac) is better than covering the extremely unlikely case (Bob-ghug).

I don't know if that makes sense or is too convoluted. It's like stringing together a bunch of spiderwebs.