M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[celaph]

There is also an outside possibility that Jamie is scum that took a N1 rose. I find this really unlikely, but if we find out after N3 that scum only took two guns, Jamie *could* be scum, though it's equally likely someone like ghug or brainbomb took a N1 rose as scum.

A brief scan of EoN1 shows that you shot Jamie -- at least claimed to -- and he is very much not dead suggesting he is town. Am I missing anything?

Why does that suggest Jamie's town?

I feel like scum will usually get more value out of a gun than a rose.

[celaph]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

Can you say more about why Jamie is town for the new guy?

Brain claimed gun pregame.
Eden claimed rose pregame.
All but 0-2 town started with roses.
I claimed gun start of day 1.
Chaqa claimed gun shortly after me.
Bunch of people claimed roses.
Chaqa claimed he shot Jamie N1 and was foiled by a rose. Jamie corroborated.
Snowy Was also rose saved N1, as was rdrivera.
Eden and Snowy were killed N2.
Horsey claimed to have been saved by a rose.

Do we know that rdr was rose saved or did he also just claim that?
Horsey's claim was N2 I assume.

[ghug]

Can you say more about why Jamie is town for the new guy?

Brain claimed gun pregame.
Eden claimed rose pregame.
All but 0-2 town started with roses.
I claimed gun start of day 1.
Chaqa claimed gun shortly after me.
Bunch of people claimed roses.
Chaqa claimed he shot Jamie N1 and was foiled by a rose. Jamie corroborated.
Snowy Was also rose saved N1, as was rdrivera.
Eden and Snowy were killed N2.
Horsey claimed to have been saved by a rose.

Do we know that rdr was rose saved or did he also just claim that?
Horsey's claim was N2 I assume.

Just a claim.
And yes, Horsey was N2.

[Chaqa]

Brain claimed gun pregame.
Eden claimed rose pregame.
All but 0-2 town started with roses.
I claimed gun start of day 1.
Chaqa claimed gun shortly after me.
Bunch of people claimed roses.
Chaqa claimed he shot Jamie N1 and was foiled by a rose. Jamie corroborated.
Snowy Was also rose saved N1, as was rdrivera.
Eden and Snowy were killed N2.
Horsey claimed to have been saved by a rose.

Wait, *rivera* claimed N1 rose save? I missed that.

I'm shocked.

I don't see anything from him suggesting a rose save. Did you shoot Rivera?

[ghug]

Wait, *rivera* claimed N1 rose save? I missed that.

I'm shocked.

I don't see anything from him suggesting a rose save. Did you shoot Rivera?

I did not.

[Chaqa]

I'm shocked.

I don't see anything from him suggesting a rose save. Did you shoot Rivera?

I did not.

Then can you point me toward why you think Rivera was saved?

[ghug]

I don't see anything from him suggesting a rose save. Did you shoot Rivera?

I did not.

Then can you point me toward why you think Rivera was saved?

I find your reaction to this exceptionally questionable.

[Chaqa]

I did not.

Then can you point me toward why you think Rivera was saved?

I find your reaction to this exceptionally questionable.

I’m completely befuddled why you’re being difficult. If Rivera was shot at, it is super important and I need to rethink my PoE. I find it hard to believe I missed such an important piece of information???

[ghug]

Then can you point me toward why you think Rivera was saved?

I find your reaction to this exceptionally questionable.

I’m completely befuddled why you’re being difficult. If Rivera was shot at, it is super important and I need to rethink my PoE. I find it hard to believe I missed such an important piece of information???

I was giving celaph intentionally inaccurate information to see what he'd do with it. I feel like I was fair to expect you to realize that, but who knows?

[Chaqa]

I find your reaction to this exceptionally questionable.

I’m completely befuddled why you’re being difficult. If Rivera was shot at, it is super important and I need to rethink my PoE. I find it hard to believe I missed such an important piece of information???

I was giving celaph intentionally inaccurate information to see what he'd do with it. I feel like I was fair to expect you to realize that, but who knows?

Oh, I hadn’t even realized those posts were aimed at celaph, I thought you were just summarizing for some reason. My bad.

[damo666]

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

Half this town is scumbo-or-dumbo and I am having a lot of trouble sorting it out. If you feel the same way about me I don't blame you.

Why did they shoot him? Was he on to something?

##VOTE CHAQA

Framing Chaqa much more likely

[celaph]

Was reading post history while I have the time. Got through D1 though I don't know if I have time for the rest tomorrow; I might just going to focus on the new messages.

I claimed gun start of day 1.
Chaqa claimed gun shortly after me.

Welp, I can safely say that 11 town didn’t pick a rose.

Rip me

Vanilla game where I have a gun is the best of both worlds.

Already caught ghug lying once!
Note: After reading more from today I see that ghug probably had a number of lies in there.

Quick notes in no particular order:
Rdr -- Really liked rdr's D1. If he's scum, he's done a good job mixing up his game. Town.

JBH -- started off really poorly and was oddly pessimistic when ghug scumread his comment that town was going to win. That said, he had a number of beliefs that seemed to come from a towny perspective (e.g. his initial scum ghug read). Null trending towards lean town.

HB -- Similarly started a little weak, but it appear that he was settling down into a more normal inquisitive HB mode. Null to lean town at the moment, but I could see it drift into very town quite quickly if he keeps this up.

Macca -- Macca's first post was quintessential town Macca, though their later posts fell off a bit. Town points to rdr for noticing the first post. Depending on how D2 went, I could see lots of scum points going to those I would have expected to defend them. A brief look a votes makes me concerned about ghug and to a lesser extent Damo.

Damo -- His D1 felt incredibly low impact with the way he only really talked about ghug/chaqa/brain in the last 24 hours. Why no thoughts on food/PE? Scumlean.

Worcej -- General normal town vibes from him. I liked his final reads list and he gave brain townpoints for his incorrect comment about people posting bad read lists. I think that more likely comes from a townie than someone trying to buddy brain.

EMC/Chaqa -- They did indeed post.

ghug -- Overall null, I believe he could play this way as either alignment. Purely off vibes my gut is sus here, but I may have an anti ghug bias so worthy of more thought. See also comments on Macca.

Jamie -- Not worth trying to short while tired. Might as well wait to read more to work with.

[celaph]

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

Half this town is scumbo-or-dumbo and I am having a lot of trouble sorting it out. If you feel the same way about me I don't blame you.

Why did they shoot him? Was he on to something?

##VOTE CHAQA

Framing Chaqa much more likely

Why do you draw this conclusions? What is your read on Chaqa?

[damo666]

Why did they shoot him? Was he on to something?

##VOTE CHAQA

Framing Chaqa much more likely

Why do you draw this conclusions? What is your read on Chaqa?

Scum tend not to kill those strongly scumreading them.

I think Chaqa claiming gunshot N1 is much more likely as town than scum.

[damo666]

Alright, so max three scum guns. Assume scum hit both snowy and Eden, and JBH If he was really hit. If that's not the case, the town shooter needs to claim.

Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Potentially 2 scum guns outstanding for N3, but there were multiple shots N1, so Chaqa actually probably shot Jamie, barring some other claim. This could be KILO, but it's very unlikely.
Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH scum - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH town - Chaqa shot Jamie, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Jamie had a rose, so one scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH town - Jamie had a rose, JBH was shot, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH scum - Potentially two guns left to be shot. This is the scary timeline
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding

The only case where we're in KILO, presuming no town tells us anything new about shots, which they must if they know something, is if Chaqa and Jamie are town. To me, that means scum has to be horsey plus some combination of Rd/worcej/Brian/damo, and I'd rather just kill in that group, since I independently townread our horse friend.

It'll be useful to come back to this tomorrow after another round of kills. If there's a shot, we eliminate the possibilities with no shots remaining

Numbering the cases 1 to 8

Cases 1 is so unlikely it can be ignored (I think it depends on a non Chaqa unclaimed townshot).

Case 2 is so contrived and doesn't pose an immediate threat so can be ignored.

Cases 5 and 6 I think can also be ignored as I can't see J taking a rose as scum. Also no immediate threat.

Cases 3 and 4 quite possible but no immediate threat.

Chaqa and Jamie should resolve soon anyway and certainly are not on he table for a vote.

This leaves cases 7 and 8 and I actually think jbh much more likely to be town (the false claim is quite a convoluted clever play and takes balls to carry off).

So if we gamble and assume case 8 this leaves

Me you rdr worcej Brian bb/celaph.

(Why did you omit bb/celaph?).

Of these I think HB would be my favoured kill.

However if case 8 is true we must kill JBH.

Now from mpov the nightmare scenario is a scumteam of {ghug, JBH, any other than J or C}. You then argue the above case to create an autowin opportunity.

If I vote anyone other than JBH I am gambling.

If Johnny was actually shot it's a shame he claimed so early. Had he not done so I would definitely vote from {HB, rdr, worcej}.

[damo666]

It's a small detail but if JBH's claim to have been shot at, and saved by his vest, is true, then it's mathematically impossible for me and JBH to be scum together. We could be town together, and indeed that now seems relatively likely to me.

Unless any townies are holding un-declared guns, I think we can be pretty certain that we are down to just one death per night, for the remainder of the game (not that it will go much longer if we can't find scum today).

Your first sentence is incorrect.

N1. Town Chaqa shots scum Jamie with rose.
Factional kill on Snowy fails.

N2. Factional kill on Snowy.
Third scum kills PE.
Unknown town shoots scum JBH with rose.

Extremely contrived and likelihood so low it can be ignored but not 'mathematically impossible'.

Ofc if JBH is lying then you could both be scum {Jamie n1 rose, JBH n2 or n3 gun, othernotChaqa n3 or n2 gun}.

However FWIW I strongly believe you are town.

[rdrivera2005]

Alright, so max three scum guns. Assume scum hit both snowy and Eden, and JBH If he was really hit. If that's not the case, the town shooter needs to claim.

Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Potentially 2 scum guns outstanding for N3, but there were multiple shots N1, so Chaqa actually probably shot Jamie, barring some other claim. This could be KILO, but it's very unlikely.
Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH scum - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH town - Chaqa shot Jamie, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Jamie had a rose, so one scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH town - Jamie had a rose, JBH was shot, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH scum - Potentially two guns left to be shot. This is the scary timeline
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding

The only case where we're in KILO, presuming no town tells us anything new about shots, which they must if they know something, is if Chaqa and Jamie are town. To me, that means scum has to be horsey plus some combination of Rd/worcej/Brian/damo, and I'd rather just kill in that group, since I independently townread our horse friend.

It'll be useful to come back to this tomorrow after another round of kills. If there's a shot, we eliminate the possibilities with no shots remaining

Numbering the cases 1 to 8

Cases 1 is so unlikely it can be ignored (I think it depends on a non Chaqa unclaimed townshot).

Case 2 is so contrived and doesn't pose an immediate threat so can be ignored.

Cases 5 and 6 I think can also be ignored as I can't see J taking a rose as scum. Also no immediate threat.

Cases 3 and 4 quite possible but no immediate threat.

Chaqa and Jamie should resolve soon anyway and certainly are not on he table for a vote.

This leaves cases 7 and 8 and I actually think jbh much more likely to be town (the false claim is quite a convoluted clever play and takes balls to carry off).

So if we gamble and assume case 8 this leaves

Me you rdr worcej Brian bb/celaph.

(Why did you omit bb/celaph?).

Of these I think HB would be my favoured kill.

However if case 8 is true we must kill JBH.

Now from mpov the nightmare scenario is a scumteam of {ghug, JBH, any other than J or C}. You then argue the above case to create an autowin opportunity.

If I vote anyone other than JBH I am gambling.

If Johnny was actually shot it's a shame he claimed so early. Had he not done so I would definitely vote from {HB, rdr, worcej}.

My big doubt on this reasoning is why choose JBH to claim being shot? He wasn't a likely DK today I think. This only makes sense if the other scum can't claim (Jamie and Chaqa) for example or if they want to sacrifice JBH to get another scum with a gun alive.
But I also find hard to understand why scum shot town JBH, so I really don't know what's best here.

[damo666]

Ghug's gun claim

Possibilities

1. He is lying and has a rose and is

a) scum - so unlikely can be ignored

b) town - very possible

2. He has a gun and is

a) scum who has already shot - possible but why claim
b) scum with n3 gun - again why claim?
c) town who has already shot - then why not tell us? Can be ignored.
d) town with n3 gun - let's hope, please shoot a survivor from HB, worcej, rdr

If ghug is town there is a good chance he will draw a kill (due to possibilty of 2d) thus giving at least 2 of town Jamie town Chaqa and town JBH survival.

Hopefully scum NK ghug and he has a N2 rose.

Anyway for today at least ghug is off the table.

[damo666]

Alright, so max three scum guns. Assume scum hit both snowy and Eden, and JBH If he was really hit. If that's not the case, the town shooter needs to claim.

Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Potentially 2 scum guns outstanding for N3, but there were multiple shots N1, so Chaqa actually probably shot Jamie, barring some other claim. This could be KILO, but it's very unlikely.
Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH scum - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH town - Chaqa shot Jamie, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Jamie had a rose, so one scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH town - Jamie had a rose, JBH was shot, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH scum - Potentially two guns left to be shot. This is the scary timeline
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding

The only case where we're in KILO, presuming no town tells us anything new about shots, which they must if they know something, is if Chaqa and Jamie are town. To me, that means scum has to be horsey plus some combination of Rd/worcej/Brian/damo, and I'd rather just kill in that group, since I independently townread our horse friend.

It'll be useful to come back to this tomorrow after another round of kills. If there's a shot, we eliminate the possibilities with no shots remaining

Numbering the cases 1 to 8

Cases 1 is so unlikely it can be ignored (I think it depends on a non Chaqa unclaimed townshot).

Case 2 is so contrived and doesn't pose an immediate threat so can be ignored.

Cases 5 and 6 I think can also be ignored as I can't see J taking a rose as scum. Also no immediate threat.

Cases 3 and 4 quite possible but no immediate threat.

Chaqa and Jamie should resolve soon anyway and certainly are not on he table for a vote.

This leaves cases 7 and 8 and I actually think jbh much more likely to be town (the false claim is quite a convoluted clever play and takes balls to carry off).

So if we gamble and assume case 8 this leaves

Me you rdr worcej Brian bb/celaph.

(Why did you omit bb/celaph?).

Of these I think HB would be my favoured kill.

However if case 8 is true we must kill JBH.

Now from mpov the nightmare scenario is a scumteam of {ghug, JBH, any other than J or C}. You then argue the above case to create an autowin opportunity.

If I vote anyone other than JBH I am gambling.

If Johnny was actually shot it's a shame he claimed so early. Had he not done so I would definitely vote from {HB, rdr, worcej}.

My big doubt on this reasoning is why choose JBH to claim being shot? He wasn't a likely DK today I think. This only makes sense if the other scum can't claim (Jamie and Chaqa) for example or if they want to sacrifice JBH to get another scum with a gun alive.
But I also find hard to understand why scum shot town JBH, so I really don't know what's best here.

Assuming for the moment you are town then consider the following team: {worcej, ghug, JBH}. Worcej and ghug are well capable of cooking up this scenario and coaching JBH. Ghug cannot claim to survive a shot as he has already gun claimed. I guess worcej would be he more natural claimant though.

If JBH was shot then as you ask, why?

[damo666]

##Vote Chaca

@JBH if you are town and Chaqa is scum, scum have no guns left and it would be more fruitful to hunt for the others.