M1023: Mafarmia [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

[Kakarroto]

It really speaks volumes that bozo continues trying to hammer this one special perspective and just quotes reads from before I noticed that worcej is probably the dog but bozo fails to mention that in any kind or way and let it fall under the rug that I pledged to not worcej that day.

He just keeps repeating the same old story, some of his posts seem like they are just copy and pasted from himself and reposted. I'm not 100% on that, but it looks very strong like he wants to use a psychological trick to repeat the same statement over and over again to make it sound more true instead of just trying to find out the truth.

Ask yourself: are you as sure as bozo in this situation when you are town? Don't you have much more doubts in the reads an the conclusions? Bozo here feels much more like someone who tries his best to bring through a last/final decision and all in's on that gamble. It's as there is no doubt in him.

[Kakarroto]

D1 final vote

BunnyGo (4): Bonatogether, bozotheclown, celaph, lfischl
Chaqa (2): ghug, damo666
ghug (2): Kakarroto, heartthrob24909
damo666 (1): Chaqa
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
bo_sox48 (1): BunnyGo

D2 final vote

celaph (5): Bonatogether, bo_sox48, bozotheclown, heartthrob24909, worcej
bozotheclown (4): rdrivera2005, Kakarroto, lfischl, Chaqa
Chaqa (1): damo666
damo666 (1): celaph

D3 final vote

Bonatogether (5): worcej, lfischl, bo_sox48, bozotheclown, damo666
damo666 (2): Chaqa, Bonatogether
bo_sox48 (1): Kakarroto
Kakarroto (1): heartthrob24909

confirmed town
claimed PR
scanned by claimed cop

[damo666]

I still maintain that Kak is basically town clear from that post he had earlier.

Which post please?

Nope.

If you've been making such a big stink about me and Kak being linked, without knowing why I townread him, you're scummy and I'm not wasting my time.

What stink about what link? Chaqa is not reading.

[Kakarroto]

bozo is also a triple town killer, additionally, in a place where it doesn't seem he would take too much of the blame for it.

from the guide 'mafia for beginners' I've read a while ago (I'm not sure if maniac, xorxes or captain meme wrote that, but it was very educational) you can find mafia easier if you look at the spots where it's opportun to vote town out. In games with not too much participation, it's normally second or fourth place in the vote order. Third place less so, but could be a hint too. Bozo fulfills this here constantly.

With this game state and the behaviour of bozo, I think he is the most likely person to flip mafia.

[damo666]

D1 final vote

BunnyGo (4): Bonatogether, bozotheclown, celaph, lfischl
Chaqa (2): ghug, damo666
ghug (2): Kakarroto, heartthrob24909
damo666 (1): Chaqa
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
bo_sox48 (1): BunnyGo

D2 final vote

celaph (5): Bonatogether, bo_sox48, bozotheclown, heartthrob24909, worcej
bozotheclown (4): rdrivera2005, Kakarroto, lfischl, Chaqa
Chaqa (1): damo666
damo666 (1): celaph

D3 final vote

Bonatogether (5): worcej, lfischl, bo_sox48, bozotheclown, damo666
damo666 (2): Chaqa, Bonatogether
bo_sox48 (1): Kakarroto
Kakarroto (1): heartthrob24909

confirmed town
claimed PR
scanned by claimed cop

Involvement in daykills

Bozo 3
lfischl 2
damo 1
heart 1
Kak 0
Chaqa 0

Looks like town have been killing themselves.

[Kakarroto]

I wont accept any counter cop claim after EoN: mafia would have too much time to prepare a counter claim after that time to throw town off. So if there is no counter claim until EoN, I see bo as confirmed cop. If there is a counterclaim, I'll have to inspect it but I don't think maf bo would've chosen that time to fake a claim, or at least I don't see a good argument for that.

possible teams:

chaqa-bozo-damo:
only possible if chaqa is godfather
since damo claimed both of his dog checks only during D3 (and only after 4 or 5 had already declared their checks) it is very possible he fabricated them, changing the N2 mafia pet to his N1 slot and put a teammate in the N2 slot. (I'm not sure though if mafia damo would not just put someone not from his team into that slot. Also, it's worth to check if damo tried to help/save worcej before D3 because if so that's a sign that my theory is wrong and he is town.)
it's also noteworthy that bozo had N1 the mafia target in his read; Chaqa had N1 bozo and N2 the mafia target in his read; this might be a hint that the mafia team worked together there
Chaqa also likes to bus and had bozo and damo on his list.
- however, from what I recall, the dialog between chaqa and bozo didn't sound like maf theatre. I can be wrong here and I shall check again if I find something, but that's what my common sense says.
maf team would've known worcej=dog

chaqa-bozo-heartthrob
only if chaqa godfather
heartthrob seems not to fit in with two outside guesses, thought N1 might've been a bold guess or just a mistake, N2 would've been fine since he would know who is the dog so it didn't matter
maf team would've known worcej=dog

chaqa-bozo-lfischl
only if chaqa godfather
lfischl would have to make a bold N1 guess.
maf team would've known worcej=dog

chaqa-damo-heartthrob
only if chaqa godfather
here heartthrobs N1 guess has no issue, but chaqa has the bold N1 guess. Also heartthrobs N2 has the issue. Possible, but not probable.
maf team would NOT have known worcej=dog

chaqa-damo-lfischl
only if chaqa godfather
both lfischl and chaqa have bold N1 guesses. damo fabrication theory makes no sense here. Very unlikely
maf team would NOT have known worcej=dog

chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl
only if chaqa godfather
all three needed to wild guess N1. Ugh no.
maf team would probably have known worcej=dog or had N2 wild guesses too.

bozo-damo-heartthrob
bold N1 guess by heartthrob. Everything else can fit.
maf would've known worcej=dog

bozo-damo-lfischl
bold N1 guess by lfischl. Everything else can fit.
maf would've known worcej=dog

damo-heartthrob-lfischl
bold N1 guess by lfischl. Everything else can fit.
maf would've known worcej=dog



teams with no need for guesses:
chaqa-bozo-damo

teams with one need for a guess:
chaqa-bozo-heartthrob
chaqa-bozo-lfischl
bozo-damo-heartthrob
bozo-damo-lfischl
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

teams with 2 guesses needed:
chaqa-damo-heartthrob
chaqa-damo-lfischl

teams with 3+ guesses needed:
chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl


Personally I still think a team with bozo has a much higher possibility to be mafia, due to his behaviour. There is just so much that points to that and bozo just isn't worcej where it is a towntell at a certain point.

I also think damo has good chances to be mafia, though I'm not as sure here.

Probably the most difficult and important question is who is the last mafia, heartthrob, chaqa, lfischl; personally I think the possibility maf to town is heartthrob>lfischl>chaqa, but I was wrong before so idk.


Anyway, since there will be a christmas break, I wish you all a happy time with your loved ones, merry christmas and/or happy holidays and have a lovely time.

[President Eden]

night has ended, please hold

[President Eden]

y'all ever wonder why sheep need a shepherd? sheep have literally been around for four MILLION YEARS, dude. humanity is a tick on the ass of sheep history by comparison.

a squished, dead tick.

BO_SOX48 has DIED. He was the SHEPHERD

The game is paused for 48 hours for Christmas festivities. Do not post in the thread during the pause. You may, of course, read at your leisure, though you are encouraged to set the game aside and enjoy the company of those around you.

The game will resume at 6pm Central on Christmas Day. If for whatever reason I'm not around to announce it's open, you may resume posting at that time, though I'll do my best to announce the thread is open at that time. Mafia cannot post in their group chat during the pause or the subsequent day phase.

DEADLINE MOVED 48 H LATER

[Kakarroto]

I think we are now allowed to post again?

[Kakarroto]

Had a look at first 2 days' votes with the following observations:

Bozo and Bona are double townkillers.

Bozo's D1 move from Chaqa to Bunny making it 3-3 from 4-2 is noteworthy but Chaqa's late move to Bozo D2 confuses.

Lot of votes putting Bozo in danger D2 so on the face of it if he is scum his partners lie in {Bona, bo, heart, worcej}. However as Bozo is 2s on to be town I think going this route is too risky.

I still favour a Chaqa flip.

Ofc night events may alter this.

Let's see.

please explain this post, damo

[Kakarroto]

did I mess up the time? or do I take the game too seriously?

[Kakarroto]

well everything I checked said it's past 6pm central, so I guess I'm good.

[Kakarroto]

Phone VCA lol (D1, post #377)

Chaqa (2): ghug, bozotheclown
ghug (2): Kakarroto, celaph
damo666 (1): Chaqa
lfischl (1): damo666
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
heartthrob24909 (1): Bonatogether
bo_sox48 (1): BunnyGo
(right after that lfischl votes bo)

Phone VCA again lol (D1, post #404)

Chaqa (2): ghug, bozotheclown
ghug (2): Kakarroto, celaph
bo_sox48 (2): BunnyGo, lfischl
damo666 (1): Chaqa
lfischl (1): damo666
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
BunnyGo (1): Bonatogether
(right after that heartthrob votes bo)
(and right after that damo votes bunny)

vca (D1, post #424)

bo_sox48 (3): BunnyGo, lfischl, heartthrob24909
Chaqa (2): ghug, bozotheclown
ghug (2): Kakarroto, celaph
BunnyGo (2): Bonatogether, damo666
damo666 (1): Chaqa
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
(celaph changes to chaqa)

bozo drops a comment that not much activity is for EoD, guesses the mafia stays away

final pre-deadline count (D1, #441)

Chaqa (3): ghug, bozotheclown, celaph
bo_sox48 (3): BunnyGo, lfischl, heartthrob24909
BunnyGo (2): Bonatogether, damo666
damo666 (1): Chaqa
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
ghug (1): Kakarroto

lfischl changes to chaqa, bozo changes to bunny
heartthrob changes to ghug, celaph to bunny
damo changes to chaqa, lfischl changes to bunny

D1 final vote

BunnyGo (4): Bonatogether, bozotheclown, celaph, lfischl
Chaqa (2): ghug, damo666
ghug (2): Kakarroto, heartthrob24909
damo666 (1): Chaqa
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
bo_sox48 (1): BunnyGo

Hmm, with this EoD, I'm pretty sure damo isn't mafia with a Godfather Chaqa. That makes the zero guesses maf team not possible. Well, there might be a chance but damo doing this to a godfather would be highly risky. Though looking at it back again it's not as risky as I first thought it would be.
It makes the chance chaqa and lfischl are mafia together more likely though. Heartthrob still possible maf candidate, just voting different townies.
Also a chaqa-bozo team might not be too unlikely. Hmm, will have a look at it later, for now that's the first ideas I have about that EoD. (blue added afterwards)

[Kakarroto]

answered dog check survey in order: bozo, chaqa, heartthrob, lfischl

page 29 post #562 - is this a mafslip?

celaph's thoughts page 32 post #634 make me doubt in my bozo read ... are the pro and anti survey people just being played by mafia?

page 34 post #665 - chaqa's reaction to celaph's question about 'lfishl is locktown' might be an indicator both are mafia, or mafia struggling to find a good reason for the lfischl read when they know he is town. Hmm.

page 38 post #749 - maybe it's omgus or wifom or whatever (never really cared about those acronyms) but something wants me to consider heartthrob for being mafia here

page 40 post #800 - I had hoped for a more telling post, damo could've made this as either town or mafia.

page 42 post #835 - everyone should read this again

page 43 post #842 - I like that post

page 45 post #882 - that too

page 46 post #911 - did past me have the correct idea?

page 46 post #912 - is this another mafslip?

page 46 post #919 - no, past me, I didn't find that post. Guess that was an 'at the time' reaction.

page 50 post #984 - that post is a bit strange, especially the time he answered celaph, right at EoD when he couldn't respond, though that "Chaqa and lfischl are prob same alignment" is curious ...



sleepy vpa (D2, #730)

bozotheclown (4): Chaqa, rdrivera2005, Kakarroto, Bonatogether
lfischl (1): bo_sox48
Chaqa (1): damo666
Kakarroto (1): bozotheclown
Bonatogether (1): worcej

actual vcu (D2, #957)

bozotheclown (3): rdrivera2005, Kakarroto, celaph
celaph (3): Bonatogether, bo_sox48, bozotheclown
Bonatogether (2): worcej, Chaqa
Chaqa (1): damo666
Kakarroto (1): heartthrob24909
heartthrob24909 (1): lfischl

heart changing to celaph, lfischl changing to bozo, worcej changing to celaph
damo not a fan of either wagon, celaph changing to damo

actual vcu (D2, #971)

celaph (5): Bonatogether, bo_sox48, bozotheclown, heartthrob24909, worcej
bozotheclown (3): rdrivera2005, Kakarroto, lfischl
Bonatogether (1): Chaqa
Chaqa (1): damo666
damo666 (1): celaph

chaqa changing to bozo

D2 final vote

celaph (5): Bonatogether, bo_sox48, bozotheclown, heartthrob24909, worcej
bozotheclown (4): rdrivera2005, Kakarroto, lfischl, Chaqa
Chaqa (1): damo666
damo666 (1): celaph

in retrospect, heartthrob voting celaph and lfischl voting bozo at the same time seems to indicate that the former is mafia and the latter town. From the eagerness of answering bozo's survey I think there is at least one more mafia with bozo in there, so heartthrob would fit too. Until now, damo hasn't had a telling post. Did chaqa save bozo with his 'jokevote' for bona?

[President Eden]

I think we are now allowed to post again?

Yup

Sorry I’m a bit late confirming

About 47.5h left!

[Kakarroto]

post flip reactions I like chaqa's more than damo's

page 51 post #1019 - damo puts worcej in possible bozo maf partners. This is a big matter since he later says he had worcej scanned N1. Why would he put the dog in a possible maf team?

page 52 post #1025 - sounds like a maf strat

page 52 post #1027 - bo talking truth

page 53 discussion - it sounds somewhat true, but it kinda doesn't really touch a sensible subject, so something mafia would be ok with discussing

page 55 post #1085 - no, but 2 PR's

page 55 post #1090 - so what about the team damo, Bonatogether, Kakarroto? you put in every combination with chaqa, bona, damo and myself, but not this one. Why would that be less likely?

page 55 - bozo beginning another survey with listening maf reads seems like a maf ploy to get worcej on their side by making it look like he gets voted by the rest of town

page 56 post #1116 - heartthrob suddenly behaving benevolent towards worcej seems to indicate he scanned him, but he petted me. Looks like he really is one of mafia

page 57 post #1123 and #1126 - but suddenly his read is 'foggier' and votes worcej, seems like he wanted to pressure the dog here

page 57 post #1136 - I think we know now why he did that strangely ...

page 57 post #1137 - suddenly damo tries to protect worcej, strange, he should've done that since D2 ...

page 59 post #1179 - thanks for pointing that out, bona

page 63 post #1248 - since we can be certain bona and worcej are not, I guess we have the maf team

page 64 post #1275 - after I was highest to second highest town read, his confidence in it is suddenly not high anymore. Why? Nobody knows.

page 70 post #1387 (+some before) - I think I know now what you were talking about.

page 72 post #1422 - heartthrob here continues to push worcej

page 72 post #1436 - yes, but if we had listened to me, we would've outed the shepard, so yay me I guess

[Kakarroto]

If you are mafia, Kakarroto is probably bussing you and will move his vote. Besides, I have a stronger scum read of Chaqa.

Chaqa is a bad vote and so am I, so vote Bona

I don't think Chaqa is a bad vote.

@eden I was sitting here practically on coals, wasn't sure if something bad happened to you, sure it's argh that we needed to wait so long but at least nothing bad happened to you.

anyway:

damo said he did pet worcej N1 and bozo N2 - however, he said this on D2 after 6 people said their pets. He could easily fudged this. With bozo petting ghug N1 and worcej N2 as well as lfischl who petted me N1 and worcej N2 those can't be mafia, right?

Well, imagine a world where mafia is bozo, lfischl, damo; imagine they found the dog N2. Bozo and lfischl could just insert this pet officially, they don't need to lie, they can just get you in the night, they might even get town points for trying to save you not to be the target for D3; imagine if maf damo knows this and changes the pet to N1 and just inserts a teammate as N2. Not that he needs to at this point since he would know who the dog is but still. The only risk would've been on N1 that I was the dog, but it was a small risk mathematically.

I'm not saying that this scenario has happened, but it's possible, so worcej your hardclaim on EoD wasn't so effective as you thought. It's still possible every single one of them is mafia. You needed to wait for the reveal to clear other people.

Also, bozo, if you thought I bussed bo, why, why, why why, why did you not jump onto that and vote bo too?

And for the off chance that worcej is mafia with two of his maf colleagues having him giving cover by 'petting' him and one towny fudging their pet, I'll pet worcej tonight. And you all should do the same.

I answer that question, Chaqa was my strongest town read.

While it is possible damo and/or lfischl managed to pull off what they did as mafia, I have to assume they are town.

By EOD, I thought Bonatogether was probably town, which is why I was suspecting a Chaqa/Kakarroto/bo_sox scum team. However, it now seems heartthrob had me fooled and the scum team is Chaqa/Kakarroto/heartthrob.

a lot of things must've happened in less than 2 hours, I guess ...

[Kakarroto]

I think the mafia team is bozo/heartthrob and one of damo/chaqa; leaning more that damo is the last member.

Why that all you ask?

-) I've looked at bozo. His actions are just not town. I've read and reread and it just makes it more clear that bozo comes from a maf perspective.

-) damo and chaqa are highly unlikely being mafia together. Chaqa also can be godfather, which is why we should wait for that decision on last, if people think Chaqa is mafia. Because if one of the other two flipps godfather, we have Chaqa cleared.

-) that leaves heartthrob and lfischl; on my reread, lfischl is more consistent, tries to help town. Heartthrob pushes worcej while his prior read was amiciable, as if he were mafia trying to vote worcej out of the game knowing he is dog.

We should either vote bozo -> heartthrob -> damo/chaqa or heartthrob -> bozo -> damo/chaqa. If we don't do that, I'm more than 99.9% sure town will lose.

If you don't agree with me, please, tell me your reasons.

[Kakarroto]

Personally I prefer bozo being the first to go since he jumped off of razor's edge one time too many, but I'm willing to change this to heartthrob.

##vote bozo

[Kakarroto]

damo, 10 minutes ago you posted in the 20 questions, please, play in this game too.