M1036 Flipless Coven Hunt I Game Thread

[Jamiet99uk]

Do you guys always do some weird analysis or something? I remember Moth (Brain) analysing player's posting volumes and how it correlated to scum wins. Apparently it doesn't.

Which is another argument against "coasting is scummy" hahah.

It was page 5, the game had just started, and it was still what we call "the shitposting phase". I do not believe he was being serious.

Oh okay, I thought he was cuz I know that Moth also ran some analyses so I thought it was this forum's thing

We do, because we have the bot, which is a great tool for analysing past games.

It IS a thing here. However, the specific example you quoted was, I think, just shitposting...

[BunnyGo]

Do you guys always do some weird analysis or something? I remember Moth (Brain) analysing player's posting volumes and how it correlated to scum wins. Apparently it doesn't.

Which is another argument against "coasting is scummy" hahah.

It was page 5, the game had just started, and it was still what we call "the shitposting phase". I do not believe he was being serious.

Oh okay, I thought he was cuz I know that Moth also ran some analyses so I thought it was this forum's thing

Depends on the player

[Krr1ss]

Preface:
Unfortunately, there's a few features that I use to beautify my wallposts that are missing here and that feels a bit lackluster because I know that this will be a bit hard to read through. Still, bear with me and thank you.

I'll try noting all important posts and things that catch my eye and ask questions as they arise.

##vote justaguynamedwill

bussing btw

Actually…I believe you.

##vote mimi

ofc i would never lie ever

hence why i play diplomacy

This quote chain is something that caught my eye. Tbh, I really think that this is AI post Will's flip as a chain of first posts but for the love of god I can't see if someone would just open wolf like that first post or defend their partner like that first post.

Specifically, the post afterwards is what made me raise my eyebrows:

Hey there party people! Already solved it, eh Bunny?!

Welll nvm. Apparently Host didn't confirm that one of the two is scum. I still don't like it but it's not host confirmed at least.

Turkey season!

literally how i play any diplomacy game where i draw in the east tbh (aside from when i play turkey but i rarely ever draw turkey and i'm glad for it)

anyways your sod feels like a repeat of last game so you can be town for this maybe

my sod is very dry as we're having a downpour here. I understand completely how this relates to my alignment.

How does it relate to your alignment?

real bunny talk, i got town no lies no fancy games no wine in front of you

Real bunny talk!

Tell me about yourself, Chomps!

For introduction purposes only, I'll tell you only truths about myself if you'd like.

Does bunny always roleplay as evil or?

real bunny talk, i got town no lies no fancy games no wine in front of you

Real bunny talk!

Tell me about yourself, Chomps!

For introduction purposes only, I'll tell you only truths about myself if you'd like.

hmmm, don't know what to say im just a low-skill mafia player that plays for fun

Chat I caught him in a lie. This is a lie. Low-skill is an understatement.

##GM NOTE
Apologies

The GM will refrain from using glitterbombs phone when at the pizza arcade in the future, when he was supposed to be taking pictures…

sus

You okay with this Mrs. Bomb? Because I've got your back if you want to spam his phone email with penis enlargement advertisements...

Wtf ahahahahhahahahahahahah butter what??????

hello i am very diplomatic in the web, m1036 flipless coven hunt I game thread style

nice pfp

(I am buddying you but I'm town)

Unironically scummy on feeling the need to point out how you are town doing a scummy action instead of just pointing out how you are doing a scummy action.

##vote justaguynamedwill

bussing btw

Shittt you right! Don’t out us so soon

???This is Alignment Indicative 100% but idk what alignment it indicates.

##vote justaguynamedwill

bussing btw

Shittt you right! Don’t out us so soon

oh right sry

##vote yavuzovic

^this is a funny vote probably

Funny vote?

Okay so it took me a fair bit but I got to finding previous day votes and figuring out somewhat how to track them. This vote effectively tied Yavu and Bunny as Bunny was leading pre this vote and seemed to be catching heat. Tentative unpairing with mimi and Yavu,
and tentative pairing with bunny and mimi.

WHat do you think of Bunny’s alignment?

I don’t think its scummy of Yavuzovic to do so

I think voting Bunny for his "nothing but lies" shtick is reasonable if that's what Yavuzovic is doing but unreasonable in a vacuum. Although rethinking, Yavu could be villagery unreasonable because he's not really worrying about appearing unreasonable.

Philosophically speaking, I intensely dislike villagers who needlessly lie. I'm a "be as transparent as possible and let the villagery purity of your posts shine through so your team can find you" player. But I think it's pretty unlikely that a coven member hops into the thread with "hey, guise, Imma lie to y'all with every post I make!" as a strategy for winning, so I'm leaning Bunny as a villager.

weird exchange imo; possibly pairing for will and butter on vibes but idk

Why is this weird and pairing for Will and Butter (me)?

##unvote atp idr want to be on a joke vote

Okay this negates the tentative pairing/unpairing I did but why unvote so early? I know that the post answers the question but on a deeper level, as a solver, don't you want your vote to matter and create pressure? If nothing else, it may indicate that your vote is on town? Having no votes at all does nothing good at all imo. So again, why unvote instead of revoting or keeping it?

I think voting Bunny for his "nothing but lies" shtick is reasonable if that's what Yavuzovic is doing but unreasonable in a vacuum. Although rethinking, Yavu could be villagery unreasonable because he's not really worrying about appearing unreasonable.

Philosophically speaking, I intensely dislike villagers who needlessly lie. I'm a "be as transparent as possible and let the villagery purity of your posts shine through so your team can find you" player. But I think it's pretty unlikely that a coven member hops into the thread with "hey, guise, Imma lie to y'all with every post I make!" as a strategy for winning, so I'm leaning Bunny as a villager.

Never lie and we're going to lose in this setup. You can share a safe hash now too if you want a reference anchor later on.

why should we lie? idr get it

Just in case this wasn't answered, last witch hunt a villager fake claimed and was proven to have fake claimed. It resulted in about 4/5 villagers chain dying as a "pairing" to that villager who everyone thought was scum and scum team conveniently had a role like gravedigger and reported that villager to be scum. It almost led to the loss of the town and the only reason the coven lost was because of strong town-sided mech and incredibly good town (minus that villa, sorry buddy xD)

Very much not a fan of naked votes with no explanation to "add momentum."

##vote yavuzovic

That's the momentum

too many layers of thinking is scummy

No it's not?


Okay so this is first 10 pages

Gth: I'd look at mimi and bunny as it feels like there's 1 scum there but probably not 2. Idk how to explain it. I think that Mimi comes off better purely off the effort that she's solving as I saw it in a few posts there.

Will can be scum. Actually wait I think that I missed a few votes in the last page onto him.

Yeah so Bona and Bunny voted for Will so that's brownies in their favor. That resulted with just 2 votes onto Will however which is nothing notable at all but I'll keep note if they are going to unvote or deflect or go all in.

Nothing else really caught my eye tbh

[yavuzovic]

I think Bona is town. If just shared the identities of the mice in scum chat, he would have known me and mimi, so he wouldn't have missed. This might be a trick on us as well but still, wasting a shot sounds unlikely. I think DiplomacyAndWarfare is a good choice.
Should we push him for a role confession?

D&W has claimed his role.

Oh sorry I missed that

[Krr1ss]

Bunny and mimi town

only reads so far

xD well this is awkward

[yavuzovic]

Oh sorry I missed that

But then, this is a claim that's easy to fake. Maybe he's scum denying us information?

[Krr1ss]

Okay I arrived at page11 and can someone tell me, is Diplomacy always so weird?

[Krr1ss]

Okay I arrived at page11 and can someone tell me, is Diplomacy always so weird?

Does it differ in his town/scum meta?

[BunnyGo]

Bunny and mimi town

only reads so far

xD well this is awkward

I’m really enjoying this read and view knowing none of our meta/history. Not gonna tell you any either so you can keep it up

[BunnyGo]

Okay I arrived at page11 and can someone tell me, is Diplomacy always so weird?

Yes.

And yes it is subtly different when scum.

Last game (you can use the bot for older games too on landing page) I strongly townread him despite his weirdness.

This game is weird but functionally and “feeling” very different.

I suggest you ISO his last game (using bot) if you want to draw your own conclusions.

[Krr1ss]

Okay I arrived at page11 and can someone tell me, is Diplomacy always so weird?

Yes.

And yes it is subtly different when scum.

Last game (you can use the bot for older games too on landing page) I strongly townread him despite his weirdness.

This game is weird but functionally and “feeling” very different.

I suggest you ISO his last game (using bot) if you want to draw your own conclusions.

Okay thanks. I hate doing meta so I probs won't but noted!

[yavuzovic]

alr time to consider the possibility that lurkers are watching town implode
ignoring n1 by my policy of doing so, and using words instead of posts as a metric of participation because it's more accurate:
two people were coasting a lot d1 (<500 words):
chomps
damo (dead, town ???)
five others had moderate to mildly low participation d1 (501-999 words):
jamie
me (watchman)
will (dead, mafia mouse)
yavuzovic (mouse)
glitterbomb
four players participated heavily d1 (1000+ words):
bona (sniper)
miminena (mouse)
butterscotch/Kr1ss
BunnyGo

so far d2, two players are coasting a lot (<400 words):
yavuzovic (mouse)
chomps
two others have moderate to mildly low participation (401-799 words):
bona (sniper)
glitterbomb
all other players are participating heavily (800+ words):
butterscotch/Kr1ss (total)
me (watchman)
jamie
bunnygo
miminena (mouse)
(standards for d2 are lower because there's still about 8 hours to go)

chomps has coasted heavily both days
glitterbomb and yavuzovic have also coasted both days

hmm
other than supporting the theory that chomps is scum (I already noticed glitter was coasting), yavuzovic could also be mafia - yavuzovic bussing will for towncred, or will refusing to tie because he didn't want yavuzovic to be killed by the judge, are two theories that would explain will failing to self-preserve

im shelfing this for now because nobody else seems interested in a yavuzovic wagon today
if I die consider this theory

Dip, I made it clear that my participation will be low this weekend. I'm not coasting, I'm busy.
And I didn't bus Will for towncred. Lots of people forget that, I switched to Will only because people didn't join me on Mimi. I pushed Mimi before Will. I was also the top wagon. I had to vote Will. Planned bussing is not an option. I even joined the wagon rather late.

[Krr1ss]

Okay while I was backreading an idea spawned in my head.

We are currently in two worlds:
1. (probably town in this world) Chomps reporting w!Will:
-We are at 2 scum.
2. w!Chomps reporting v!Will:
-We are at 3 scum here.

Right now, there are 9 alive players. With a miselim, that would be 8 + Night kill it rounds to 7.

That would mean that tomorrow is LyLO in that world. That's not concerning as much as the fact that we have a sniper who, if shoots and misses, or is scum then we automatically lose.

In other words, we may be at LyLO at this very moment if Chomps is scum.

Eliminating him may be safest mechanical play ngl because it guarantees that we killed at least 1 scum and 1 villager. Sucks to intentionally kill a possible villager but otherwise, we are risking just straight up losing.

I do think that this world is not very likely just based on RNG and role distribution however I still think that we can easily get fucked if we don't consider this seriously

[Krr1ss]

Okay while I was backreading an idea spawned in my head.

We are currently in two worlds:
1. (probably town in this world) Chomps reporting w!Will:
-We are at 2 scum.
2. w!Chomps reporting v!Will:
-We are at 3 scum here.

Right now, there are 9 alive players. With a miselim, that would be 8 + Night kill it rounds to 7.

That would mean that tomorrow is LyLO in that world. That's not concerning as much as the fact that we have a sniper who, if shoots and misses, or is scum then we automatically lose.

In other words, we may be at LyLO at this very moment if Chomps is scum.

Eliminating him may be safest mechanical play ngl because it guarantees that we killed at least 1 scum and 1 villager. Sucks to intentionally kill a possible villager but otherwise, we are risking just straight up losing.

I do think that this world is not very likely just based on RNG and role distribution however I still think that we can easily get fucked if we don't consider this seriously

I am replying to this post in bold just to ensure everyone sees it.

I am replying to this post in bold just to ensure everyone sees it.

I am replying to this post in bold just to ensure everyone sees it.

[miminena]

##vote justaguynamedwill

bussing btw

Shittt you right! Don’t out us so soon

???This is Alignment Indicative 100% but idk what alignment it indicates.

worth noting that we're both mice and hadn't outed yet

Shittt you right! Don’t out us so soon

oh right sry

##vote yavuzovic

^this is a funny vote probably

Funny vote?

Okay so it took me a fair bit but I got to finding previous day votes and figuring out somewhat how to track them. This vote effectively tied Yavu and Bunny as Bunny was leading pre this vote and seemed to be catching heat. Tentative unpairing with mimi and Yavu,
and tentative pairing with bunny and mimi.

i thought it would be funny to vote the other two mice in my first two votes

I think voting Bunny for his "nothing but lies" shtick is reasonable if that's what Yavuzovic is doing but unreasonable in a vacuum. Although rethinking, Yavu could be villagery unreasonable because he's not really worrying about appearing unreasonable.

Philosophically speaking, I intensely dislike villagers who needlessly lie. I'm a "be as transparent as possible and let the villagery purity of your posts shine through so your team can find you" player. But I think it's pretty unlikely that a coven member hops into the thread with "hey, guise, Imma lie to y'all with every post I make!" as a strategy for winning, so I'm leaning Bunny as a villager.

weird exchange imo; possibly pairing for will and butter on vibes but idk

Why is this weird and pairing for Will and Butter (me)?

on vibes but idk

##unvote atp idr want to be on a joke vote

Okay this negates the tentative pairing/unpairing I did but why unvote so early? I know that the post answers the question but on a deeper level, as a solver, don't you want your vote to matter and create pressure? If nothing else, it may indicate that your vote is on town? Having no votes at all does nothing good at all imo. So again, why unvote instead of revoting or keeping it?

bc at this point i was actively reading yavuz's vibes as towny and i was cooking something in my head abt a possible will/dw pairing but i didn't want to say anything abt it since they hadn't interacted much yet and i didn't want to influence their interactions in case they actually are paired

[miminena]

Okay I arrived at page11 and can someone tell me, is Diplomacy always so weird?

yes he is always like that

[Krr1ss]

Shittt you right! Don’t out us so soon

???This is Alignment Indicative 100% but idk what alignment it indicates.

worth noting that we're both mice and hadn't outed yet

oh right sry

##vote yavuzovic

^this is a funny vote probably

Funny vote?

Okay so it took me a fair bit but I got to finding previous day votes and figuring out somewhat how to track them. This vote effectively tied Yavu and Bunny as Bunny was leading pre this vote and seemed to be catching heat. Tentative unpairing with mimi and Yavu,
and tentative pairing with bunny and mimi.

i thought it would be funny to vote the other two mice in my first two votes

weird exchange imo; possibly pairing for will and butter on vibes but idk

Why is this weird and pairing for Will and Butter (me)?

on vibes but idk

##unvote atp idr want to be on a joke vote

Okay this negates the tentative pairing/unpairing I did but why unvote so early? I know that the post answers the question but on a deeper level, as a solver, don't you want your vote to matter and create pressure? If nothing else, it may indicate that your vote is on town? Having no votes at all does nothing good at all imo. So again, why unvote instead of revoting or keeping it?

bc at this point i was actively reading yavuz's vibes as towny and i was cooking something in my head abt a possible will/dw pairing but i didn't want to say anything abt it since they hadn't interacted much yet and i didn't want to influence their interactions in case they actually are paired

Thanks for answering this. It did explain a lot of things

[miminena]

Okay I arrived at page11 and can someone tell me, is Diplomacy always so weird?

Does it differ in his town/scum meta?

slight difference i think

from what i understand as town he tends to push his worldview onto the town but as scum he tends to push people but not within a certain worldview. so for example his push on chomps feels within his town meta imo

[miminena]

Okay I arrived at page11 and can someone tell me, is Diplomacy always so weird?

Yes.

And yes it is subtly different when scum.

Last game (you can use the bot for older games too on landing page) I strongly townread him despite his weirdness.

This game is weird but functionally and “feeling” very different.

I suggest you ISO his last game (using bot) if you want to draw your own conclusions.

also if you're up for it read his most recent scum game, M92

[yavuzovic]

##vote Krr1ss