M1025 Game Thread

[brainbomb]

In a hypthetical world where your top scumread kills you, and I lead a elimination on them because I found in your ISO this person got spooked by you.

youre telling me that in god chat youd be sitting there saying
brain used flawed reasoning to find him. I wish my killer wouldve lived because using shoddy hunting is bad for the game and brain got lucky

[Jamiet99uk]

the methodology of barking at everyone and repeating this person seems off yields pretty bad results too. At least a night kill actually happens. At least we can verify it happened. I cant verify that someone “seems off” unless ive poured thru 37 of these games did some monster ass meta case with fifty fuckin quotes only to have someone call it spam or not even read it anyway.

rather than yell at you what even is your system of finding mafia if you pay zero attention to motive for who the mafia is actively killinf

Brainbomb seems off this game

[ghug]

Why do I feel like I accidentally willed this into being by hoping he got killed.

What if you intentionally willed it into being by killing him?

[President Eden]

In a hypthetical world where your top scumread kills you, and I lead a elimination on them because I found in your ISO this person got spooked by you.

youre telling me that in god chat youd be sitting there saying
brain used flawed reasoning to find him. I wish my killer wouldve lived because using shoddy hunting is bad for the game and brain got lucky

do you even understand how to build good methodologies

what a question. do you think winning the powerball is evidence that your number selection scheme gives replicable success? because I can celebrate winning the powerball and also recognize that I got lucky.

[damo666]

If Bozo is scum then from VCA Bona and Jamie look good, {Chaqa, Eden, Pyx, rdr} null, {Bra Bun Flum ghug (me)} bad. Since I don't think the bad group are particularly bad I suspect Bozo is town.

If Bozo is town there is not a lot to be gleaned other than the suspicion there is at least one scum in {brain, pyx, Bona}, brain and pyx for being off 2 lead wagons and Bona for being on Bozo from early doors.

Why am I bad if Bozo's scum? I tried to kill him and moved off when he'd lost.

I forgot you don't bus

[ghug]

Well thank you scum! that was a very generous kill on a very hard to
read player lol.

Kinda how I feel. This helps narrow the PoE for me at least.

I was fairly confident rdrivera was town, and that he might be the NK, but Fluminator was a good doctor target also.

Why would you say this in the thread?

[brainbomb]

the methodology of barking at everyone and repeating this person seems off yields pretty bad results too. At least a night kill actually happens. At least we can verify it happened. I cant verify that someone “seems off” unless ive poured thru 37 of these games did some monster ass meta case with fifty fuckin quotes only to have someone call it spam or not even read it anyway.

rather than yell at you what even is your system of finding mafia if you pay zero attention to motive for who the mafia is actively killinf

analysis of congruence in reads and motives, especially around EOD voting

meta where applicable although this is a limited tool (see worc for why it can suck sometimes)

PR/mechs where applicable although obviously not very applicable here

Okay, I will back off and let you do A. I believe you are easily capable of doing A in this day phase and ill cease hounding you.

##Vote Jamie

[President Eden]

the methodology of barking at everyone and repeating this person seems off yields pretty bad results too. At least a night kill actually happens. At least we can verify it happened. I cant verify that someone “seems off” unless ive poured thru 37 of these games did some monster ass meta case with fifty fuckin quotes only to have someone call it spam or not even read it anyway.

rather than yell at you what even is your system of finding mafia if you pay zero attention to motive for who the mafia is actively killinf

analysis of congruence in reads and motives, especially around EOD voting

meta where applicable although this is a limited tool (see worc for why it can suck sometimes)

PR/mechs where applicable although obviously not very applicable here

Okay, I will back off and let you do A. I believe you are easily capable of doing A in this day phase and ill cease hounding you.

##Vote Jamie

ironically, Jamie being town was the main conclusion I reached so far from that……

[brainbomb]

In a hypthetical world where your top scumread kills you, and I lead a elimination on them because I found in your ISO this person got spooked by you.

youre telling me that in god chat youd be sitting there saying
brain used flawed reasoning to find him. I wish my killer wouldve lived because using shoddy hunting is bad for the game and brain got lucky

do you even understand how to build good methodologies

what a question. do you think winning the powerball is evidence that your number selection scheme gives replicable success? because I can celebrate winning the powerball and also recognize that I got lucky.

the difference being that a random number is alot more random than seeing things that happened in the game thread - a person dies - and turns out they fearkilled you - and left a trail of blood behind

[Jamiet99uk]

the methodology of barking at everyone and repeating this person seems off yields pretty bad results too. At least a night kill actually happens. At least we can verify it happened. I cant verify that someone “seems off” unless ive poured thru 37 of these games did some monster ass meta case with fifty fuckin quotes only to have someone call it spam or not even read it anyway.

rather than yell at you what even is your system of finding mafia if you pay zero attention to motive for who the mafia is actively killinf

analysis of congruence in reads and motives, especially around EOD voting

meta where applicable although this is a limited tool (see worc for why it can suck sometimes)

PR/mechs where applicable although obviously not very applicable here

Okay, I will back off and let you do A. I believe you are easily capable of doing A in this day phase and ill cease hounding you.

##Vote Jamie

Please explain why I am scum.

[Chaqa]

with how many of the past game discord servers yall are still in you could easily go look and see this happening time after time after time fully disproving any refutation

now there is a direct moment between rivera and chaqa that could be a doc tell.

Chaqa wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:54 pm
brainbomb wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:54 pm
if only consider speedeagons if it was rdrivera or damo
Rivera is a better second wagon than Bozo.

No, I am not.

@chaqa
Was curious if you felt like this post was a PR cautioning people not to vote him

I did take it that way at the time, but I decided to not bring attention to it, and then I forgot about it at some point last night. Now that you point it out, that could explain the kill if mafia saw it as well.

[ghug]

worcej wanted bozo to die
rdrivera wanted bozo not to die

does either death indicate anything about bozo?


so we can conclude that mafia minimally assisted with worcej dying (if bozo is town)

which makes the nightkill maybe about rdriveras townreads on bozo-ghug-bunny



or we can conclude mafia may have came out in full effort to save bozo (if bozo is scum)


Or we can conclude mafia was not heavily involved in saving scum bozo and they just got lucky

which makes the nk on rivera total wifom meant to make us think that rivera died because he had bozo as town when its actually the opposite

or im overly obsessed with bozo being scum and no one is willing to entertain the idea anymore.

or rivera died because if they kill me its way too obvious so they just picked someone who townread bozo to make it look clean

I don't think we should be doing down the N1 kill analysis rabbit hole. It's nonstandard, so it's worth keeping in the back of our minds, but we're not going to be able to figure it out today, and rd wasn't going to be shaping the day if he'd lived. We should just scumhunt.

[Chaqa]

I guess I should put my thoughts down for people to not listen to when I'm dead.

Scummies:
Eden - Trying not to tunnel but I really wanna tunnel
Bozo

Useless and thus suspicious
Bona
Flum - I still think he might have been defending bona with his late day votes, and I don't think he'd vote for Eden the way he did if they were teammates, so adjust accordingly if either of those two flip.
Rd

Uneasy townreads:
Brain - Disliked him early but he's trending upwards.
Damo - liked his first 24 hours but EoD was unimpressive
Chaqa - same as damo

Easier townreads:
Pyxxy - I think the v i b e s thing doesn't have much scum motivation and I liked his evolution on Bunny in that wall. I also caught a little hint of the feistiness of last game in one moment that I'm forgetting now. He's been quieter though, and my meta isn't calibrated, so I'm not willing to Bunny-level clear him.
Jamie - I'm probably high on being right about him last game but he's giving me legitimately good vibes this game.
Bunny

Your read on Damo and I is really lazy. What was unimpressive about our EOD compared to our first 24 hours? Why was it unimpressive?

This is feeling like scum!ghug

I was irked by your ratio of +1ing to saying things, and damo was much more question asky than opinion statey.

I'm +1ing literally every post as I read them.

I do this in at least half the games we play here as a way to know where I'm at in the thread.

[Chaqa]

Why do I feel like I accidentally willed this into being by hoping he got killed.

What if you intentionally willed it into being by killing him?

Plausible.

[brainbomb]

Eden youre acting like youve never experienced my methodology before. I spit out theories and people decide what is totally preposterous.

Youre a victim of circumstance and its very hard to soundly defeat an argument without any creative opinion of your own. I dont expect people to have wild dreamlike theories about the game.

I expect you to want to win others over by winning debates and sorting the game. if this is all keeping you from doing that I apologize and please carry ob

[ghug]

Can Bozo voters answer this survey for me?

If we flip Bozo and he is town, who would you suspect based off Day 1?

If we flip Bozo and he is scum, who would you suspect based off Day 1?

If he's scum, I think Flum is a good bet given his vote bouncing.

If he's town, I don't think it tells us that much, so I default to like Eden/Bona/Flum.

[ghug]

Think about it. Put some effort in.

I'm going to do it as well.

My thinking is that if we can find a consensus person who is suspicious *regardless* of Bozo's alignment, then we could just kill that person.

What's the point of this?

[brainbomb]

okay ignore all the nightkill talk
ignore all riveras reads

why is bozo town as of this point in gamestate

[Jamiet99uk]

Eden youre acting like youve never experienced my methodology before. I spit out theories and people decide what is totally preposterous.

Youre a victim of circumstance and its very hard to soundly defeat an argument without any creative opinion of your own. I dont expect people to have wild dreamlike theories about the game.

I expect you to want to win others over by winning debates and sorting the game. if this is all keeping you from doing that I apologize and please carry ob

I love how you slap a vote on me, yet continue to argue with Eden instead of addressing or responding to me.

[Chaqa]

Think about it. Put some effort in.

I'm going to do it as well.

My thinking is that if we can find a consensus person who is suspicious *regardless* of Bozo's alignment, then we could just kill that person.

What's the point of this?

Can Bozo voters answer this survey for me?

If we flip Bozo and he is town, who would you suspect based off Day 1?

If we flip Bozo and he is scum, who would you suspect based off Day 1?

If he's scum, I think Flum is a good bet given his vote bouncing.

If he's town, I don't think it tells us that much, so I default to like Eden/Bona/Flum.

I expect you to now vote Flum.

That's the point.