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uh probably because he was obvious town and is a strong leaderTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:53 pmDo you think brain was killed because of a PR read or for other reasons?wolfu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:50 pmanyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:
1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom
2. brain died with a confident townread on riot
3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep
From another player that knows meta: if scum were worried with reads on Tom they will kill HR and not BB. Brain was probably a good PR guess and this put Damo and Bozo higher on my suspect list as they are pretty good om PR hunting. Tom can still be scum, but this reasoning is bad and sheeping is even worst.wolfu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:50 pmanyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:
1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom
2. brain died with a confident townread on riot
3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep
if darg is being bussed, why does he claim in a non-specific way before eod (so it's unccable) and not just either bite the bullet or bait out a real cc?pyxxy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:54 pmWell first, scum had a N0. Don't forget about that.Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:43 pmthis doesn't make sensepyxxy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:35 pmI guess there's a question of, is this all a Barbarian play by darg to get killed? Barbarian is only useful if it dies.
That's not a bad scum play, especially if darg was (un)lucky enough to be a top D1 wagon.
Should we be re-examing the D1 darg voters? Were they bussing from D1 to set this up?
For transparency, I was one of them until he claimed.
Actually no it can wait until after EOD today when we know for sure if darg is lying or not. And if darg is a Barb, we'll want to try and force someone we think is scum to be the first voter and take the vengeful hit, and that's just easier to analyze after today.
why bus on d1? that would have be organized with basically zero information about the game state and is highly likely to like, do nothing useful for scum
Second, sorry, I can clarify, I'm not positing that scum could have planned the entire thing. I'm saying that since scum would all know darg is Barbarian, they might theoretically be more inclined to bus him once he was looking like a strong wagon.
I wrote this and then went back to do D1 VCA and darg peaked at 5 votes when I went onto him at D1 -00:12 so actually this doesn't really make that much sense. The whole autohammer thing really does get rid of big wagons, huh. No shot there's 2 scum on the darg wagon there (I say because 1 doesn't feel like a strong enough bus for my theory).
Yeah nevermind look I was already moving past the darg topic, I wrote all this as I read the thread and thought through things. I should probably just head out until bozo shows up.
Are you actually going to acknowledge and discuss my read at any point, or shall we just continue to pretend it doesn't existTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pmI tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.
But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
okay point taken, i'd be willing to vote bozo but i'd still effectively be sheepingrdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:57 pmFrom another player that knows meta: if scum were worried with reads on Tom they will kill HR and not BB. Brain was probably a good PR guess and this put Damo and Bozo higher on my suspect list as they are pretty good om PR hunting. Tom can still be scum, but this reasoning is bad and sheeping is even worst.wolfu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:50 pmanyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:
1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom
2. brain died with a confident townread on riot
3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep
##vote Bozo
why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of informationTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pmI tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.
But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pmwhy brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of informationTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pmI tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.
But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
we know he was killedTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:02 pmIt’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pmwhy brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of informationTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pmI tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.
But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
I think the timing made it more uncc'able than anything else. Odds of the PR being online and all that.Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:57 pmif darg is being bussed, why does he claim in a non-specific way before eod (so it's unccable) and not just either bite the bullet or bait out a real cc?pyxxy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:54 pmWell first, scum had a N0. Don't forget about that.Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:43 pm
this doesn't make sense
why bus on d1? that would have be organized with basically zero information about the game state and is highly likely to like, do nothing useful for scum
Second, sorry, I can clarify, I'm not positing that scum could have planned the entire thing. I'm saying that since scum would all know darg is Barbarian, they might theoretically be more inclined to bus him once he was looking like a strong wagon.
I wrote this and then went back to do D1 VCA and darg peaked at 5 votes when I went onto him at D1 -00:12 so actually this doesn't really make that much sense. The whole autohammer thing really does get rid of big wagons, huh. No shot there's 2 scum on the darg wagon there (I say because 1 doesn't feel like a strong enough bus for my theory).
Yeah nevermind look I was already moving past the darg topic, I wrote all this as I read the thread and thought through things. I should probably just head out until bozo shows up.
Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking aboutBonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pmwe know he was killedTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:02 pmIt’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pm
why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information
we know his role
why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns
has nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember itTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:11 pmGot it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking aboutBonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pmwe know he was killedTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:02 pm
It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?
we know his role
why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns
Yes. Repeatedly. In multiple games across multiple communities.Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:14 pmhas nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember itTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:11 pmGot it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking aboutBonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pm
we know he was killed
we know his role
why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns
Let’s move on and leave it at the fact that is strongly disagree.Bonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:14 pmhas nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember itTom Bombadil wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:11 pmGot it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking aboutBonatogether wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pm
we know he was killed
we know his role
why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns