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Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:11 pm
by damo666
heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 12:33 pm
damo666 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:06 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:00 pm
Avatar Chaqa Wild.png
Earlier today you said you thought Chaqa's inactivity was NAI.
What changed your view?
I was really talking about D1/N1 deliberate lurking in order to simply survive. We're well into day 2 now.
FWIW here is the frequency of poss scumteams
Chaqa, Ham, rdr 11
Bunny 9
heart 3
Tem 2
Macca 2
What do you mean frequency? Not sure I understand where this list / numbers are coming from.
Firstly I assumed certain players were town and then of the remainder I identified any pairs I deemed unlikely. I then listed all the possible teams of the three remaining scum and then counted how many times each individual player appeared in different teams. This gives a frequency count per player as listed above.
So for example although I think Tem may be scum there are only 2 teams I think he can be in so imo he is not a value vote.
Hope this helps.
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:12 pm
by damo666
rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 1:40 pm
heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 12:33 pm
damo666 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:06 pm
I was really talking about D1/N1 deliberate lurking in order to simply survive. We're well into day 2 now.
FWIW here is the frequency of poss scumteams
Chaqa, Ham, rdr 11
Bunny 9
heart 3
Tem 2
Macca 2
What do you mean frequency? Not sure I understand where this list / numbers are coming from.
Nobody understands Damo's math. Not even him.
See?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:13 pm
by Hamilton Brian
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:07 pm
My current reasoning for voting Macca on D2 is that she has just been lurking too hard, half her posts are about her out of game relation with Bona,
she had never expanded on any townreads or scumreads. And her only 2 scumreads are people who scumread her.
Doesn't that describe say, I don't know...9 out of the remaining 14 players?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:13 pm
by damo666
##vote rdr (value)
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:14 pm
by Hamilton Brian
It's some weird mathing damo, and doesn't there have to be some absolute truths for it to work? I'm not mathematician, but...
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:15 pm
by Hamilton Brian
I am not a fan of Tem or Macca this game. I'll go back to ##Vote Macca for seeing how it goes.
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:15 pm
by Temasek22
Hamilton Brian wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:13 pm
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:07 pm
My current reasoning for voting Macca on D2 is that she has just been lurking too hard, half her posts are about her out of game relation with Bona,
she had never expanded on any townreads or scumreads. And her only 2 scumreads are people who scumread her.
Doesn't that describe say, I don't know...9 out of the remaining 14 players?
The other 8 of 14 wouldn't just say:
"I think temask and will are scum.
together? maybe, maybe not"
"I'm liking Jamie and Ghug
Not liking Tem and Damo"
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:17 pm
by BunnyGo
rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 1:37 pm
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 3:12 am
rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 3:06 am
Do you believe both Bona and Macca are scum?
Do you feel like you're playing/feeling differently than normal this game?
I've been surprised by several of your posts.
No, I don't think I am playing differently, at least from my last games.
What is surprising you?
You’re both sharper (re: Just) and more frustrated (see post above to Tem).
It’s not my usual picture of you. I think of you as calm Brazilian on the beach.
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:18 pm
by BunnyGo
rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 1:40 pm
heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 12:33 pm
damo666 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:06 pm
I was really talking about D1/N1 deliberate lurking in order to simply survive. We're well into day 2 now.
FWIW here is the frequency of poss scumteams
Chaqa, Ham, rdr 11
Bunny 9
heart 3
Tem 2
Macca 2
What do you mean frequency? Not sure I understand where this list / numbers are coming from.
Nobody understands Damo's math. Not even him.
The best kind of math
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:20 pm
by BunnyGo
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:11 pm
heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 12:33 pm
damo666 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:06 pm
I was really talking about D1/N1 deliberate lurking in order to simply survive. We're well into day 2 now.
FWIW here is the frequency of poss scumteams
Chaqa, Ham, rdr 11
Bunny 9
heart 3
Tem 2
Macca 2
What do you mean frequency? Not sure I understand where this list / numbers are coming from.
Firstly I assumed certain players were town and then of the remainder I identified any pairs I deemed unlikely. I then listed all the possible teams of the three remaining scum and then counted how many times each individual player appeared in different teams. This gives a frequency count per player as listed above.
So for example although I think Tem may be scum there are only 2 teams I think he can be in so imo he is not a value vote.
Hope this helps.
Damo makes model
Damo seeds model with answer
Damo states secret math model providing answer
I think there are actuarial standards covering this…
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:20 pm
by BunnyGo
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:13 pm
##vote rdr (value)
What does this mean?
Do you actually believe it?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:21 pm
by BunnyGo
Good morning Hamilton.
What shall we discuss while I drink my barium milkshake?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:22 pm
by Temasek22
ghug wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:52 am
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:00 am
ghug wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 1:55 am
A bunch of people tried to wagon Macca for very questionable reasons and then she ended up being just as much of a counterwagon as Will.
Macca's D1 voting behaviour was "I found this slot scummy but because my buddy subbed in I'll unvote and vote No Kill instead", was that not even slightly suspect?
That's an incredibly dishonest framing, I don't think what actually happened was scummy,
and I don't like the way you spell behavior.
*the Commonwealth of Nations disliked this comment*
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:24 pm
by BunnyGo
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:22 pm
ghug wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:52 am
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:00 am
Macca's D1 voting behaviour was "I found this slot scummy but because my buddy subbed in I'll unvote and vote No Kill instead", was that not even slightly suspect?
That's an incredibly dishonest framing, I don't think what actually happened was scummy,
and I don't like the way you spell behavior.
*the Commonwealth of Nations disliked this comment*
Hmm. So the only game I remember you from you were a solo scum of a type.
Why did you disappear? Why come back?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:24 pm
by Temasek22
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:11 pm
heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 12:33 pm
damo666 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:06 pm
I was really talking about D1/N1 deliberate lurking in order to simply survive. We're well into day 2 now.
FWIW here is the frequency of poss scumteams
Chaqa, Ham, rdr 11
Bunny 9
heart 3
Tem 2
Macca 2
What do you mean frequency? Not sure I understand where this list / numbers are coming from.
Firstly I assumed certain players were town and then of the remainder I identified any pairs I deemed unlikely. I then listed all the possible teams of the three remaining scum and then counted how many times each individual player appeared in different teams. This gives a frequency count per player as listed above.
So for example although I think Tem may be scum there are only 2 teams I think he can be in so imo he is not a value vote.
Hope this helps.
Out of curiosity, are Chaqa, Ham and rdr's 11 possible teams in your model here similar? As in neither have had enough interaction with the other possible scum to have too many pairs deemed unlikely?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:26 pm
by damo666
My preferred vote today is
1) rdr (high value and voting Tem)
2) Bunny (voting Tem, slightly less value)
3&4) Ham (high value, vanity voting) or Chaqa (high value, voting stupidly)
5) heart (lesser value voting Tem)
6) Macca (least value voting Tem)
7) Tem
8) in the unlikely event none of the above are viable wagons I'll just have to vote ghug
I hope to be around at EOD and will vote in accordance with above preference subject to the constraint of getting a likely kill (so, if things stood as they are now at T-2 I'd be forced to vote my 7th choice).
All the above is dramatic events notwithstanding.
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:26 pm
by BunnyGo
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:24 pm
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:11 pm
heartthrob24909 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 12:33 pm
What do you mean frequency? Not sure I understand where this list / numbers are coming from.
Firstly I assumed certain players were town and then of the remainder I identified any pairs I deemed unlikely. I then listed all the possible teams of the three remaining scum and then counted how many times each individual player appeared in different teams. This gives a frequency count per player as listed above.
So for example although I think Tem may be scum there are only 2 teams I think he can be in so imo he is not a value vote.
Hope this helps.
Out of curiosity, are Chaqa, Ham and rdr's 11 possible teams in your model here similar? As in neither have had enough interaction with the other possible scum to have too many pairs deemed unlikely?
Good question!
@damo: can you elaborate on some pairs you excluded?
Did you exclude any thruples but allowed subpairs?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:27 pm
by Temasek22
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:24 pm
Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:22 pm
ghug wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:52 am
That's an incredibly dishonest framing, I don't think what actually happened was scummy,
and I don't like the way you spell behavior.
*the Commonwealth of Nations disliked this comment*
Hmm. So the only game I remember you from you were a solo scum of a type.
Why did you disappear? Why come back?
I actually lost multiple games in a row both as town and scum, my only previous win was as a substitute who did pretty much nothing. Meanwhile, IRL got busy and I missed turns in Diplomacy games and CDed out of multiple of them. I ended up not using the site for a long while, only coming back because one day I randomly remembered it and had free time.
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:27 pm
by BunnyGo
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:26 pm
My preferred vote today is
1) rdr (high value and voting Tem)
2) Bunny (voting Tem, slightly less value)
3&4) Ham (high value, vanity voting) or Chaqa (high value, voting stupidly)
5) heart (lesser value voting Tem)
6) Macca (least value voting Tem)
7) Tem
8) in the unlikely event none of the above are viable wagons I'll just have to vote ghug
I hope to be around at EOD and will vote in accordance with above preference subject to the constraint of getting a likely kill (so, if things stood as they are now at T-2 I'd be forced to vote my 7th choice).
All the above is dramatic events notwithstanding.
What does “subject to the constraint of getting a likely kill” mean?
Re: MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD
Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:28 pm
by damo666
Hamilton Brian wrote: ↑Sat Nov 25, 2023 2:14 pm
It's some weird mathing damo, and doesn't there have to be some absolute truths for it to work? I'm not mathematician, but...
Their called assumptions. They may we wrong but after all this is just a contrived guessing game. I like to rationalise my guesses.