Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[thamrick]

While we wait for your questions, I'm going to perform some magic tricks for the GOD thread.

@GOD Thread, watch this.

So, vote count right now:

ND (3): Bo_Sox, Yavuz, bb
Vashta (2): Bozo, MLQ
Ezio (2): rdrivera, reedeer
Tom (2): Foxy Knoxy, RJ
Brainbomb (1): Vashta
MLQ (1): Balki
Balki (1): Ezio
Darg (1): Tom

It's halfway through Day 1. Really hard to say where the final wagons are going to end up. But there are 4 bad guys trying hard to get a mislynch today. So where should we expect they are?

- Spread out
- Almost all on town
- On wagons they think they can actually flip

From this, with 4 scumbuckets living, I'm willing to bet 25 slap bracelets and a bucket full of pogs that the there is exactly 1 scum among Vashta, Bozo, and MLQ, and exactly one scum among Ezio, Rdrivera, and Reedeer. That's cause Vashta and Ezio have done next to nothing and they feel like easy lynches. That could mean either (a) one or both are scum, or (b) there is exactly one scum on their wagon.

I am fairly certain Reedeer is Town, which means we have a 50/50 shot at hitting scum in Ezio and Rdrivera. Not bad odds at all.

Boom. Truth grenade. You're welcome.

I really like your logic here. Why doesn't this apply to the ND wagon too though? Would ND not qualify as a wagon that they think they can actually flip? Plenty of people still scumreading and he was close to going down D1.

[thamrick]

ND (3): Bo_Sox, Yavuz, bb
Vashta (2): Bozo, MLQ
Ezio (2): rdrivera, reedeer
Tom (2): Foxy Knoxy, RJ
Brainbomb (1): Vashta
MLQ (1): Balki
Balki (1): Ezio
Darg (1): Tom

It's halfway through Day 1. Really hard to say where the final wagons are going to end up. But there are 4 bad guys trying hard to get a mislynch today. So where should we expect they are?

- Spread out
- Almost all on town
- On wagons they think they can actually flip

From this, with 4 scumbuckets living, I'm willing to bet 25 slap bracelets and a bucket full of pogs that the there is exactly 1 scum among Vashta, Bozo, and MLQ, and exactly one scum among Ezio, Rdrivera, and Reedeer. That's cause Vashta and Ezio have done next to nothing and they feel like easy lynches. That could mean either (a) one or both are scum, or (b) there is exactly one scum on their wagon.

I am fairly certain Reedeer is Town, which means we have a 50/50 shot at hitting scum in Ezio and Rdrivera. Not bad odds at all.

I really like your logic here. Why doesn't this apply to the ND wagon too though? Would ND not qualify as a wagon that they think they can actually flip? Plenty of people still scumreading and he was close to going down D1.

[thamrick]

Oops - sorry for the double post. I decided to remove the flavor from the original to make the thread more readable. Didn't realize I had submitted the first post.

[Balki Bartokomous]

ND could apply.

But I see ND as different in kind. Whereas Vashta and Ezio just feel completely Null, absent, ND was a leading wagon Day 1. There are legitimate reasons to scumread ND. Bo made a case that screams sincerity and thoughtfulness on the matter.

But I go back to this:

"I'm not scum. If I do die please read and reflect about Snowy's actions. Out of this whole day he has come across as the most scum indicative player. Get him next. Also, watch out for Brainbomb (potentially but less sure now)

Finally keep an eye on these new people (Mean, Yav, RJ) Something is fishy with that and of course keep watching Jamie.

I think that's everything."

I don't think ND is scum based on this post. In that moment, I think ND likely felt like he was going to be lynched and I think this was a very readable moment. It's thoughtful, it's forward thinking, and it seems to be game-solving, not defensive. I believe this is a last gasp from Town.

So, because there's a solid case on ND, and solid evidence to rebut that case, his wagon is very different than the wagons on Vashta and Ezio. I think it's hard to draw hard conclusions about the ND wagon -- have to evaluate the rationales expressed by the people on that wagon.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Bo, what do you make of ND's last D1 gasp, quoted above? Were you online to read that when it happened? What are your thoughts?

[DemonRHK]

Going back to Jamie's read list from D1 as well as interactions toward EoD, he had both counterwagons listed as scum. I am really feeling one of the two might have been scum. On a quick reread, if I had to pick right now the scum is ND.

Lurking needs to be brought to a halt. Reedeer, bozo, and ezio. Meme needs to be in the saddle by EoD.

I am going to apply a pressure vote to try to illicit some participation.
##Vote bozo

[thamrick]

@bozo - I see you're online. The pressure must be drawing you out. Got the game figured out over there but don't want to share?

Your vote is still planted on Vash. Initially, I liked a Vash vote. I'm not so sure now. How are you feeling about it? To summarize your reasons for a Vash vote:

-trying to verify gunsmith
-EoD voting record
-possible bussing from Jamiet
-Snowy wanted him lynched

If those are still your reasons, can you elaborate on them? They seem pretty unsubstantial

[bozotheclown]

@thamrick: I have been reading what I missed. I still find Vashta suspicious for insisting brain prove he was the gunsmith. Vashta seemed to be implying that if brain was fake claiming gunsmith he was likely scum, and from what I have seen of Vashta in the past, and based on his history of playing with brain, I would expect him to understand that brain's claim was likely a town fake claim. The other reasons are less substantial, although I do give snowy's suggestion during N1 to lynch Vashta some weight, since we now know snowy was town and he was right about Jamie D1. I am curious about the strong positions against a Vashta lynch.

[bozotheclown]

@ bo and brain: Why the strong town reads of Vashta, am I missing something?

[bozotheclown]

@Vashta: Now that brain has rescinded his gunsmith claim, are you OK with everyone stating whether or not they received a gun?

[thamrick]

@thamrick: I have been reading what I missed. I still find Vashta suspicious for insisting brain prove he was the gunsmith. Vashta seemed to be implying that if brain was fake claiming gunsmith he was likely scum, and from what I have seen of Vashta in the past, and based on his history of playing with brain, I would expect him to understand that brain's claim was likely a town fake claim. The other reasons are less substantial, although I do give snowy's suggestion during N1 to lynch Vashta some weight, since we now know snowy was town and he was right about Jamie D1. I am curious about the strong positions against a Vashta lynch.

From me? I don't have a strong position against a Vashta lynch.

I can buy the attempts to draw out GS.

Can you tell me what you think Snowy saw that pointed him towards Vash that makes you also willing to lynch Vash because of it?

[brainbomb]

Vash is just annoying. Hes god fucking awful at reading. Hes only good when a games been solved, sealed, enveloped, shoved up his rectum and delivered to him.

Otherwise he will lynch crappy players and obvious town until town loses because hes a 2nd tier human being.

[thamrick]

Don't plan on it, I wanna give brain a run for his money on post count.

We all knew it was a lofty goal from the start, but wow you've fallen short.

[brainbomb]

I like he said that. Im glad he wanted to. I think scum jumped on him.

##Vote Ezio

Im.gonna literally sheep reedeeer here and see what happens. Im bored

[thamrick]

@BB - still have Yavuz as town?

[bozotheclown]

@thamrick: No, I did not mean what I missed from you, I just meant I was reading the pages I missed since the last time I was online.

I am not sure why snowy suspected Vashta, but I trust that he had a reason. I would not advocate lynching Vashta based on that alone, but I am willing to give it some consideration.

[bozotheclown]

@bo: I just realized that I never answered your question. I am voting for Vashta over MLQ because MLQ does not have a history of playing with brain, so it is more likely she was equating a fake claim by him to be scum indicative.

[DemonRHK]

@bozo: Since you checked out for EoD1, I'd like to hear your thoughts and interpretation of what went down, and then a list of your reads if you don't mind, since you've never really provided us with one yet this game.

[bozotheclown]

@Demon: Since I missed D1 EOD, I looked at the bot record carefully to try to see how the EOD went. However, I found that there were some discrepancies between the bot record and the game thread. After further reviewing the game thread, I believe I was able to identify three discrepancies between the real voting record and the bot report:
1. Jamie’s vote for Balki at 10 minute before EOD was not picked up by bot
2. the votes by snowy and yavuzovic at 2 minutes before EOD were reversed by the bot
2. the votes by Vashta and Balki at 1 minute before EOD were reversed by the bot

These discrepancies turned out to effect my interpretation of D1 EOD. I will go over my interpretation in detail, but it will have to wait until later because it is currently late at night where I am.

[bozotheclown]

Sorry for the error in my list numbers.