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Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm**

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:48 pm

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:09 pm
I’m actually comfortable declaring all the Tom voters town, except maybe snowy if we think he deliberately tied the vote, because otherwise mafia would have to anticipate Tom getting scanned—when the Cop is already outed and thus able to be roleblocked forever.

Amusingly, as I type that, it occurs to me that if you thought the mafia was sufficiently clairvoyant, they might have let Chaqa have the scan just for that reason. But I don’t think so.

I’ll come up with something today to try to wrap up this game, I think we finally have enough data for me not to suck at it.
This first paragraph doesn't make sense. During late EoD2 accordioning everyone was going everywhere, but it does make sense that scum wouldn't move onto scum!tom. However, that no scum would be on him earlier, especially since it was guessable that he wasn't going to be one of the final 2?
Yea that’s fair that the early voters might have been busing.

That creates this POE pool, including dead people and presuming EOD Tom voters are town (except snowy for tying), for the last 2 besides bozo and Tom:

jasnah
Jamie
rivera
Doom
Me
ghug
Sabi

I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm**

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:54 pm
Add snowy to that. Why do I keep fucking up this afternoon -.-

Snowy was also on Tom too, lol

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:05 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:48 pm

This first paragraph doesn't make sense. During late EoD2 accordioning everyone was going everywhere, but it does make sense that scum wouldn't move onto scum!tom. However, that no scum would be on him earlier, especially since it was guessable that he wasn't going to be one of the final 2?
Yea that’s fair that the early voters might have been busing.

That creates this POE pool, including dead people and presuming EOD Tom voters are town (except snowy for tying), for the last 2 besides bozo and Tom:

jasnah
Jamie
rivera
Doom
Me
ghug
Sabi
I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)

jasnah
Jamie
ghug
Sabi

Which leaves behind this group. Not sure if we think the day 3 votes are as important, b/c y'all wanted to kill Bozo instead of Tom for some reason, so bussing Tom day 3 wasn't as likely to actually be harmful, but...

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:06 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:48 pm

This first paragraph doesn't make sense. During late EoD2 accordioning everyone was going everywhere, but it does make sense that scum wouldn't move onto scum!tom. However, that no scum would be on him earlier, especially since it was guessable that he wasn't going to be one of the final 2?
Yea that’s fair that the early voters might have been busing.

That creates this POE pool, including dead people and presuming EOD Tom voters are town (except snowy for tying), for the last 2 besides bozo and Tom:

jasnah
Jamie
rivera
Doom
Me
ghug
Sabi
I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)

Day 3 was bozo hammer day lmao (ie, 99.9% mechanically confirmed scum?)

Tom was nowhere near as scum as that, and there was no other possible result, realistically.

Therefore, pushing him gets you no credit.

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:05 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Yea that’s fair that the early voters might have been busing.

That creates this POE pool, including dead people and presuming EOD Tom voters are town (except snowy for tying), for the last 2 besides bozo and Tom:

jasnah
Jamie
rivera
Doom
Me
ghug
Sabi
I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)
jasnah
Jamie
ghug
Sabi

Which leaves behind this group. Not sure if we think the day 3 votes are as important, b/c y'all wanted to kill Bozo instead of Tom for some reason, so bussing Tom day 3 wasn't as likely to actually be harmful, but...

bozo claimed doc
worcej cced (so one is guaranteed doc)

next day
no nk
worcej claims he saved me
bozo claims he saved bungo
i claim attacked but saved

and tom was merely moderately scummy. There was no way tom was getting voted out over bozo there

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm**

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:06 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Yea that’s fair that the early voters might have been busing.

That creates this POE pool, including dead people and presuming EOD Tom voters are town (except snowy for tying), for the last 2 besides bozo and Tom:

jasnah
Jamie
rivera
Doom
Me
ghug
Sabi
I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)
Day 3 was bozo hammer day lmao (ie, 99.9% mechanically confirmed scum?)

Tom was nowhere near as scum as that, and there was no other possible result, realistically.

Therefore, pushing him gets you no credit.

Can I get credit for it being the smarter play to kill Tom Day 3 instead of hammering Bozo?

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:10 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:06 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)
Day 3 was bozo hammer day lmao (ie, 99.9% mechanically confirmed scum?)

Tom was nowhere near as scum as that, and there was no other possible result, realistically.

Therefore, pushing him gets you no credit.
Can I get credit for it being the smarter play to kill Tom Day 3 instead of hammering Bozo?

No.

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:11 pm**

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:05 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)
jasnah
Jamie
ghug
Sabi

Which leaves behind this group. Not sure if we think the day 3 votes are as important, b/c y'all wanted to kill Bozo instead of Tom for some reason, so bussing Tom day 3 wasn't as likely to actually be harmful, but...
bozo claimed doc
worcej cced (so one is guaranteed doc)

next day
no nk
worcej claims he saved me
bozo claims he saved bungo
i claim attacked but saved

and tom was merely moderately scummy. There was no way tom was getting voted out over bozo there

I mean, I, and I think other people too, idk, wasn't paying too much attention, were saying we shouldn't kill bozo, because it doesn't benefit it to kill him now, when we could kill him later, and instead we should just kill someone else. If we had actually succeeded, what would our benefit be? Kill a teammate, to save another teammate... who would die the next day? I guess maybe scum could vote for Tom knowing it wouldn't happen, but I did think we would come around to killing Tom instead.

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:12 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:11 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:05 pm

jasnah
Jamie
ghug
Sabi

Which leaves behind this group. Not sure if we think the day 3 votes are as important, b/c y'all wanted to kill Bozo instead of Tom for some reason, so bussing Tom day 3 wasn't as likely to actually be harmful, but...
bozo claimed doc
worcej cced (so one is guaranteed doc)

next day
no nk
worcej claims he saved me
bozo claims he saved bungo
i claim attacked but saved

and tom was merely moderately scummy. There was no way tom was getting voted out over bozo there
I mean, I, and I think other people too, idk, wasn't paying too much attention, were saying we shouldn't kill bozo, because it doesn't benefit it to kill him now, when we could kill him later, and instead we should just kill someone else. If we had actually succeeded, what would our benefit be? Kill a teammate, to save another teammate... who would die the next day? I guess maybe scum could vote for Tom knowing it wouldn't happen, but I did think we would come around to killing Tom instead.

what?

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:16 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:11 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:05 pm

jasnah
Jamie
ghug
Sabi

Which leaves behind this group. Not sure if we think the day 3 votes are as important, b/c y'all wanted to kill Bozo instead of Tom for some reason, so bussing Tom day 3 wasn't as likely to actually be harmful, but...
bozo claimed doc
worcej cced (so one is guaranteed doc)

next day
no nk
worcej claims he saved me
bozo claims he saved bungo
i claim attacked but saved

and tom was merely moderately scummy. There was no way tom was getting voted out over bozo there
I mean, I, and I think other people too, idk, wasn't paying too much attention, were saying we shouldn't kill bozo, because it doesn't benefit it to kill him now, when we could kill him later, and instead we should just kill someone else. If we had actually succeeded, what would our benefit be? Kill a teammate, to save another teammate... who would die the next day? I guess maybe scum could vote for Tom knowing it wouldn't happen, but I did think we would come around to killing Tom instead.

Ok reread it, and while I was thinking this, I did not say it, and instead said it day 4. So nevermind, no credit there. My immediate action was to vote fish b/c I didn't think we would have two scum Day2 as major wagons (I did say we shouldn't kill Bozo, because leaving him around has zero downside to town when we could hunt someone else).

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:17 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:16 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:11 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:08 pm

bozo claimed doc
worcej cced (so one is guaranteed doc)

next day
no nk
worcej claims he saved me
bozo claims he saved bungo
i claim attacked but saved

and tom was merely moderately scummy. There was no way tom was getting voted out over bozo there
I mean, I, and I think other people too, idk, wasn't paying too much attention, were saying we shouldn't kill bozo, because it doesn't benefit it to kill him now, when we could kill him later, and instead we should just kill someone else. If we had actually succeeded, what would our benefit be? Kill a teammate, to save another teammate... who would die the next day? I guess maybe scum could vote for Tom knowing it wouldn't happen, but I did think we would come around to killing Tom instead.
Ok reread it, and while I was thinking this, I did not say it, and instead said it day 4. So nevermind, no credit there. My immediate action was to vote fish b/c I didn't think we would have two scum Day2 as major wagons (I did say we shouldn't kill Bozo, because leaving him around has zero downside to town when we could hunt someone else).

Living him around gives scum a vote lmao

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:26 pm**

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:17 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:16 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:11 pm

I mean, I, and I think other people too, idk, wasn't paying too much attention, were saying we shouldn't kill bozo, because it doesn't benefit it to kill him now, when we could kill him later, and instead we should just kill someone else. If we had actually succeeded, what would our benefit be? Kill a teammate, to save another teammate... who would die the next day? I guess maybe scum could vote for Tom knowing it wouldn't happen, but I did think we would come around to killing Tom instead.
Ok reread it, and while I was thinking this, I did not say it, and instead said it day 4. So nevermind, no credit there. My immediate action was to vote fish b/c I didn't think we would have two scum Day2 as major wagons (I did say we shouldn't kill Bozo, because leaving him around has zero downside to town when we could hunt someone else).
Living him stick around gives scum a vote lmao

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:29 pm**

The more I consider the chaos at the exact end of d2, the less I like singling out snowy as someone who might have tried to tie the vote. If we had down-to-the-second timestamps then maybe, but I just don't remember how far apart the posts were to feel confident accusing specifically him of trying to tie the vote. I know I considered trying to tie the vote so we could have more time to think about the Doctor claims, but I couldn't keep pace with who was voting where to have made that call. Maybe someone else could, but man it was nuts.

Even looking at how the votes changed the vote counts (e.g., seeing that two of kgray's vote switches tied things between Tom and bozo), you can't really decipher whether the person knew they were tying things.

I think if we consider snowy then we have to consider kgray too.

---

Another reason to consider rivera and Doom is that it's kind of odd that of all the other options that were under consideration at EOD, Tom ended up as the counterwagon to bozo. That points to a lack of thread presence to steer the vote onto someone else. Notably, TheFlyingBoat and kgray were meaningful alternatives at various points in the last hour of the day. TFB is confirmed town now, so there was at least one meaningful town alternative (which in hindsight would have been hilarious if we'd forced him to claim last minute...). The interesting part is that virtually everyone alive was around: only four people did not post within the last 10 minutes, and that's rivera, Doom, lfischl, and Jamie. lfischl obviously isn't town, and Jamie posted with 12 minutes to go, so if you want you could say he was around.

It might be the case that mafia just got stuck on Tom because they physically weren't here to move anywhere else.

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:32 pm**

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:54 pm
Add snowy to that. Why do I keep fucking up this afternoon -.-

Aka the same pool we've had the whole time?

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:35 pm**

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:48 pm

This first paragraph doesn't make sense. During late EoD2 accordioning everyone was going everywhere, but it does make sense that scum wouldn't move onto scum!tom. However, that no scum would be on him earlier, especially since it was guessable that he wasn't going to be one of the final 2?
Yea that’s fair that the early voters might have been busing.

That creates this POE pool, including dead people and presuming EOD Tom voters are town (except snowy for tying), for the last 2 besides bozo and Tom:

jasnah
Jamie
rivera
Doom
Me
ghug
Sabi
I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)

I also lean this way.

From my POV, the pool in order of likelihood (assuming real Chaqa) is:
Jamie
rivera
snowy
Eden
kgray
------line of serious consideration-------
jasnah
Doom
Sabi
Durga

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:36 pm**

ghug wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:35 pm
I also lean this way.

From my POV, the pool in order of likelihood (assuming real Chaqa) is:
Jamie
rivera
snowy
Eden
kgray
------line of serious consideration-------
jasnah
Doom
Sabi
Durga

Same except reverse card you're going after snowy

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:37 pm**

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:06 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

President Eden wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Yea that’s fair that the early voters might have been busing.

That creates this POE pool, including dead people and presuming EOD Tom voters are town (except snowy for tying), for the last 2 besides bozo and Tom:

jasnah
Jamie
rivera
Doom
Me
ghug
Sabi
I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)
Day 3 was bozo hammer day lmao (ie, 99.9% mechanically confirmed scum?)

Tom was nowhere near as scum as that, and there was no other possible result, realistically.

Therefore, pushing him gets you no credit.

This doesn't match how the day actually went down. All the smart people didn't want to kill bozo yet.

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:38 pm**

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:26 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:17 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:16 pm

Ok reread it, and while I was thinking this, I did not say it, and instead said it day 4. So nevermind, no credit there. My immediate action was to vote fish b/c I didn't think we would have two scum Day2 as major wagons (I did say we shouldn't kill Bozo, because leaving him around has zero downside to town when we could hunt someone else).
Living him stick around gives scum a vote lmao

I like how instead of correcting the typo, you added a different word to change what weird the typo should be corrected to.

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:42 pm**

ghug wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:38 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:26 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:17 pm

Living him stick around gives scum a vote lmao

I like how instead of correcting the typo, you added a different word to change what weird the typo should be corrected to.

what's weird?

Posted: **Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:42 pm**

ghug wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:37 pm

Bonatogether wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:06 pm

Doom427 wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:03 pm

I'd like to think me pushing forward Tom as the kill day 3 exonerates me. Rivera also was on Tom day 3, as were you (Briefly)
Day 3 was bozo hammer day lmao (ie, 99.9% mechanically confirmed scum?)

Tom was nowhere near as scum as that, and there was no other possible result, realistically.

Therefore, pushing him gets you no credit.
This doesn't match how the day actually went down. All the smart people didn't want to kill bozo yet.

all the smart people (as many they may be) reverted to 'ooga booga' within hours

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