webdiplomacy.net

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:40 pm

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:36 pm

Yeah you got me end me tomorrow fam

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:32 pm

If you get off another scan, then a "not-guilty" result is only bayesian, not 100%.

It's a bit tricky to calculate the exact bayesian factor to be applied (since we don't know if bozo was the GF). I could work it out if anybody cared...but I don't. Just keep in mind that a "not-guilty" is only a signal on par with a fakeable townslip (is it a townslip?).

Wasn't someone here an actuary? I could probably work it out too if anybody cared but uh, yeah

Yeah...I'm a mathematician too. But this is particularly tricky because your bayesian factor has to itself assume things about the number of non-GF scum left and whether GF is alive. There's a reason Bayesian analysis isn't used with non-simple distributions: it's a bitch to calculate.

The actuary answer would be: meh...let's just load enough caution to make sure we make a profit but not too big a profit to be fined and be done.

The physicist would just have a computer do it and call it a proof.

The mathematician would disappear for a couple years to prove a new theorem that not only can the 10th decimal place be calculated, but that it relates to a strange conjecture on coloring graphs.

Just assume random chance on all those events imo

And that's a wrap folks

PLEASE HOLD--and let's all contact our 10000th post winner on discord

FINAL VOTE COUNT

Tom Bombadil(12) - Chaqa*, TheFlyingBoat, ghug, Bonatogether, Durga*, President Eden*, Doom427*, rdrivera2005, snowy801*, worcej*, BunnyGo*, kgray*
Chaqa(1) - Tom Bombadil

Not Voted(2) - BesharamSabi, Vecna

Please PM any correction in the next 5 minutes

Meanwhile, inside Baskin-Robbins

Gus and Darren carried trash out the back and into the dumpster. Gus lit a cig and leaned against the far building as Darren sat on the curb and scrolled on his phone.

Gus glanced over at Darren, "So what are you going to school for again?"

Darren didn't look up. "Physical Therapy."

Gus took a long drag and continued, "That's a good field to get into. What made you go for that?"

Darren stopped scrolling and went into what seemed like a oft-treaded speech. "I don't come fro ma well off family. I could only get a part ride at state for Track, so if I did that I'd be swimming in student loan debt, even if I worked full time along side it." He looked up and explained further "So if I went to a local college, I could get a full ride on academics for 2 years, then go onto state for the last 2 on a part ride, not completely break my body for a school that don't give no shit, and still have a good degree if I don't become some olymipian."

Gus nodded thoughtfully. Kid had a damn solid plan. He finished his cig and put it out against the brick and headed back in with Darren.

Brad stood lazily, leaning back and munching on a Thin Mint. Gus looked puzzled.

"Brad! Ain't no fucking eating behind the counter! Wait, where the fuck did you get girl scout cookies?" Gus asked, now more curious, spotting a large collection of boxes on the counter.

Brad kept eating. "Damned cookie witches came in, trying to argue for a trade. Convincing rugrats, I'll give them that."

Gus grew more confused, but his eye was drawn to a newly open gap in the freezer case. "BRAD! Where the FUCK did the Butter Pecan go??"

Brad just stared into the box of cookies. "VERY convincing."

TOM BOMBADIL has DIED! They were BUTTER PECAN!

DAY HAS ENDED EARLY

DEADLINE HAS MOVED 1 D EARLIER

Play continues.

Night 5 has begun.

YOU MAY POST

rip

Loving Tom's (probable) scum play. Loving the flavor text too.

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:57 pm

Loving Tom's (probable) scum play. Loving the flavor text too.

I won't lie I haven't really been reading the flavor text. What's the summary of the story so far?

Well that was exciting. See you guys next hammer

Durga wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:22 pm

I think we need to operate under the assumption that only one scum is dead

For decision making yes, but considering that more might be is helpful for trying to make sense of things.

Oh man, I was hoping Tom was the oracle.

ghug wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:10 pm

Oh man, I was hoping Tom was the oracle.

Why would you ever expect oracle not to claim?

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:58 pm

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:57 pm

Loving Tom's (probable) scum play. Loving the flavor text too.

I won't lie I haven't really been reading the flavor text. What's the summary of the story so far?

Blue collar Midwestern guys grinding away to keep a Baskin Robbins open.

There's no shot DemonRHK hasn't worked in food service, it's incredibly relatable

President Eden wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:12 pm

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:58 pm

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:57 pm

Loving Tom's (probable) scum play. Loving the flavor text too.

I won't lie I haven't really been reading the flavor text. What's the summary of the story so far?

Blue collar Midwestern guys grinding away to keep a Baskin Robbins open.

There's no shot DemonRHK hasn't worked in food service, it's incredibly relatable

Huh, might have to actually read these then.

Dear mafia,

I promise I'll write 10,000 words on why we should kill Chaqa for you if you don't roleblock him again.

Thanks

For snowy. The Bayesian factor calculation in various scenarios.

In all these the notation is:

N = size of considered PoE (adjustable based on whether you think some non-clears are in PoE or not)

S = number of non-GF scum team remaining (presumed to be no larger than 2)

G = 1 if GF is still alive, 0 if GF is dead.

Then, the odds of getting a "Not-Guilty" scan is 1 - (S/N)

So the Bayesian update factor is:

N / (N - S)

This is larger if you limit your PoE below what mechanics alone get us. And it's larger if you assume there are more non-GF scum team left.

It's smaller if the PoE is as large as mechanically possible, and if there are fewer non-GF scum team left.

YMMV, but I don't think simple averaging is correct.

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:58 pm

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:57 pm

Loving Tom's (probable) scum play. Loving the flavor text too.

I won't lie I haven't really been reading the flavor text. What's the summary of the story so far?

It sucks to work in an ice cream shop. Especially when the shipment of new ice cream doesn't come.

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:12 pm

ghug wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:10 pm

Oh man, I was hoping Tom was the oracle.

Why would you ever expect oracle not to claim?

It was less a serious hope and more that it would be funny to instantly confirm Chaqa as scum.

ghug wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 04, 2021 5:10 pm

Oh man, I was hoping Tom was the oracle.

ROFL