Mafia 85: Return from Lockdown

[brainbomb]

Final Vote Count

JustAGuyNamedWill (7) Diplomacy&Warfare, foodcoats, bozotheclown, Hamilton Brian, brainbomb, babyspice666, lfischl

BK3K (4) Frogsterking, BobMcBob, Kakarroto, JustAGuyNamedWill

lfischl (3) Chaqa, heartthrob24909, Jamiet99uk

sweetandcool (2) damo666, BunnyGo

Kakarroto (1) Nephthys

Diplomacy&Warfare (1) BK3K

Frogsterking (1) sweetandcool

Chaqa (1) worcej

[bozotheclown]

Ok, caught up.

First, this is the current state of where people stand:

Directed PR-actions D1 over free-for-all?

YEA: bozo, damo, Jamie, heart (and if I'm not wrong, food too? didn't really vote but I think his stance is quite clear)

NEY: lfischl, sweet, bob, chaqa

??? (explain below): BK3K (does what group thinks is smartest - so I think YEA but only in majority?)

=====

(ney but would still follow if majority is up to: lfischl, sweet) (lfischl retracted his support I think in post number 1384?)

(9/19 voted)

I'm currently uncertain on the fence. However with what I've read and think about it, I tend more to NEY. After I woke up I was thinking it might be fine, but foods strange stance made me ponder.

But let me list advantages/disadvantages:

-) If reaching 100% role-knowledge early enough, town autowins (well that is also true if we don't use the system, but I guess it can still be counted as an advantage?)
-) scans/actions are saved for later/don't require special effort saving
-) mafia needs to pin in their options early if they want to fake claim
-) speeds up finding out own role (effect starts only after SoD3 though)

=====

-) gives mafia information for their nk (starts with N2 if we reveal D2; N3 if we reveal EoN2) which probably helps their PR hunt
-) takes initiative away from town which might probably lead to decreased fun/morale/investment
-) it's not a slam dunk win chance


Hmm ... maybe I'm overlooking something but that kinda sums it up, no? Please tell me if I'm overlooking something.

That tradeoff between giving mafia information and forcing them to lock their fake messages is the crux, I think. I'm not sure I value that high enough to handshake it.

Saving the messages can easily be done if people are diligent posting them when they are voted out. There are also ways to hide them in your posts, some people would call it 'crumb', so I wouldn't be too worried about that.

I also think that the "finding your own role", or how much it speeds it up, is overrated by some people here. It shouldn't take too long to have a grasp on things and have at least a probability for two to four roles. People should be able to work with that.

Yeah, hmm, I'm not convinced it's a good idea to use the system. Especially not if we just blurt out what we got on D2. I'm on NAY for this one.

Feel free to enlighten me if I'm overlooking something or am wrong with a perspective.

I agree there is a trade-off, but in my opinion getting as much information publicly available as soon as possible will benefit town more than mafia, because we can quickly sort players by possible roles and find out which groups the mafia are hiding in. All that is needed for this is mass claiming results, but assigning targets has the added benefit of forcing the mafia to comply or possibly being caught be some of the more unusual PR actions.

[brainbomb]

updated reads

Town
kak
foodcoats
bob
bunny
chaqa
sweetandcool
Nephthys

Null
lfischl
BK3K
Frogsterking
heartthrob24909
Hamilton Brian

Scum
worcej
jamiet99uk
babyspice666
bozotheclown
Diplomacy&Warfare
damo666

[BK3K]

Chaqa: Chaqa it up to what?

This is gold

[foodcoats]

JustAGuyNamedWill (7)
Diplomacy&Warfare* foodcoats bozotheclown Hamilton Brian brainbomb babyspice666, lfischl

D&W is a new player who contributed minimally day 1. This is a prime candidate for possible scum.

foodcoats was a vocal town leader who had reasons for suspecting Justaguy and food is the least likely to be scum of these voters imo.

bozo was a possible scum day 1 but overall my scum-read on them is just guessing they randed that way. Being part of this elim does not radically increase anything for me to believe hes mafia.

Hamilton had some decent posts and yet didn't do a lot. being part of a town death does not help Hamilton here and only increases scum
possibility.

brain- I was part of this death and it wasn't in my top 5 or 6 scum-reads. I mostly joined this out of curiosity but killing a town here should by no means be a good look for me

babyspice is someone new who barely played. the fact they ended up here will require a lot of explanation given the severe lack of involvement so far

lfischl ending up here does not help their town status. however he was widely scumread and was a wagon d1. lfischl had no reason to help break the tie here if he was mafia so this actually helps my opinion of him a little


in sum I think at least one scum was on here and its possibly a new player or its just Hamilton

reposting these thoughts on the Will wagon for visibility.

Thanks brain... just seeing these names is interesting because I don't really have reads on any of them (except you). Work for D2!

[brainbomb]

I don't want to choose someone I strongly townread in case I have a negative effect. I plan to choose brain because he's the highest volume poster.

If I get a scan that indicates him as scum, the game thread becomes shorter and easier to read, and if it indicates him as town, it means I should actually pay attention to what he says.

If it kills him, see the first point.

Just so you are aware, I am not the games top poster. I was not top poster on day 1, and I am not even close to top poster tonight either.

[bozotheclown]

Assuming we ALL chose to participate in the directed PR system:

Plus assuming there will be no roleblocks for town because curfew enforcer hits sicko (I first thought they would act in the same phase but it turns out the curfew enforcer is faster so there is a chance that mafia RB is town RB'ed), PLUS assuming NK is saved by doc:

openly towncleared:
news host (+gets info on their target out)

openly towncleared if target claims:
paper delivery boy
door darter

openly towncleared if no counter claim or copy from mail man:
a) private investigator
a) middle manager (plus two info that needs sorting but that can be done)
b) detective
b) internal affairs
b) electoral comission officer (plus two useful info that needs more sorting since one useless info is mixed in)
c) ruber driver
c) pollster

outs the sicko if docsave is one of the above and if lobbyist finds out their role with no further claims of success/failure:
curfew enforcer

depending on the role/alignment of the target, a few more peeps are outed. That would be a pretty fast game for town.

but this is the best case scenario. We shouldn't expect that to happen.


===============

Assuming two town don't participate in the directed PR system:

Plus assuming sicko RB's a town role (randomly) plus assuming curfew enforcer doesn't hit sicko, plus no doc save:

random chance for town roles not to participate:
roll 9 (hits ECO)
roll 10 (hits middle manager)

random chance for sicko to hit town:
roll 14 (hits lobbyist)

random chance for curfew enforcer to hit:
roll 19 (hits lobbyist too, what are the chances)

random chance for mafia to hit:
roll 7 (hits mail man)

openly towncleared:
news host (+gets info on their target out)

three people claim alignment return:
looks good but one mafia is hiding unknowingly to town since ECO didn't participate

two people claim role return:
looks good but one mafia is hiding unknowingly to town since middle manager didn't participate

two people claiming target:
appears to be town and are actual both town but might cause shade if one of the upper two tiers flip mafia

a bunch of successful/failure claims (including doc, lobbyist and some fake claims)

after EoD people know that lobbyist was rb'ed though


so with that scenario, there seemed to be quite the chance of misinformation happening and mafia hiding while getting to know some good detective/private detective



So it seems to me, the directed system isn't fool proof, especially when not every town participates.

any thoughts?

There is a lot of interaction between roles, so the results will vary based on what role is being targeted by each role, and by what roles target mafia vs. town, so I don't think we can know for sure how effective the plan will be without running a large number of simulations. However, based on my experience with these type of games, I feel the probability is high that the plan will help town, and I don't think there is that much downside in that the mafia can't benefit that much. Maybe they could NK some of the better roles earlier, but we need to know who has what role to effectively use the roles while we have them.

[foodcoats]

I'm still not gonna go along with your plan

You don't want what you yourself admit is best for town? Why?

I'm not gonna sit here and be guilt tripped. I got enough of that growing up.

Lol... I'm not "guilt tripping" you. You are saying you know that what you plan to do is actively worse for town and you're going to do something actively worse for town anyway. Are you scum-claiming? Or can you explain why, if you are town, you would do something that you know is worse for town?

[foodcoats]

I don't want to choose someone I strongly townread in case I have a negative effect. I plan to choose brain because he's the highest volume poster.

If I get a scan that indicates him as scum, the game thread becomes shorter and easier to read, and if it indicates him as town, it means I should actually pay attention to what he says.

If it kills him, see the first point.

Just so you are aware, I am not the games top poster. I was not top poster on day 1, and I am not even close to top poster tonight either.

Something to point out here is that Chaqa does not understand he could get a "Mafia" result from targeting brain that does not actually mean that brain is mafia - e.g. if he is the mailman and brain is the detective. Brain would have the same problem with interpreting his own result of "mafia" on whoever he scanned.

I think this is a mistake several people are making, though. They don't realize that there are "red herring" roles that are in here to make it more confusing for town if we act in isolation. We literally CANNOT make proper interpretations without comparing notes.

[bozotheclown]

Calling them "directed PR actions" obscures the fact that you can't even properly direct your own action because you don't know what it is and you won't be able to determine what the results mean without cross-referencing. Read the setup and think about it!

wat? What did you put into your food? I think I named it in a pretty neutral way that doesn't misrepresent it, given I thought about the naming only for a couple of seconds. That post feels totally out of the world. What a very strange thing to hang on.

Sorry if I misrepresented you, Kak. The thing is that there is a narrative throughout the thread right now where some people are saying they want to control their own PR action choice. My point is that everyone needs to realize that is a meaningless choice for town, or an illusion of freedom. Our best chance of getting to a place where townfolk can make meaningful, impactful choices with their targets is by collaborating on N1 to get the maximum information and figure out our roles.

We need to fight back against the “muh freedums!” argument, because ultimately not collaborating with town as soon as possible reduces ALL of town’s ability to make meaningful, powerful effects with their actions. Some people may not yet understand just how pointless choosing a target is tonight (for town, anyway; scum have much more info and can make decent directed moves tonight).

I agree that we need as much participation as possible in targeting players is a assigned order, so I think we should go ahead with selecting a list and encourage everyone to follow it, and those who do not can explain why they think their choice was more beneficial than their target from the list.

[foodcoats]

we need to know who has what role to effectively use the roles while we have them.

I will quote bozo to continue to drive this point home. None of the returns we can get can be "trusted" in isolation. No one can actually conclude "I'm the detective!" if they get an alignment return, for example.

If you don't understand this, please read the setup.

[brainbomb]

Jamie,

I said IF YOU WERE MAFIA, you would maybe be unable to vote for Will because multiple mafia, maybe even your entire mafia team is already voting for Will and you wanted to avoid having all of the mafia on the same wagon.

OR, none of the mafia was on Will at all, and you savored such an option and chose to keep it devoid of any additional mafia.

these are both things you would think about if you were scum there. you cant tell me you arent aware enough to even think about what you maybe wouldve done if you were mafia.

So if I am scum you theorise that at least 2 of my team mates are in the pool of:

Diplomacy&Warfare
foodcoats
bozotheclown
Hamilton Brian
brainbomb
babyspice666

That's interesting because I am inclined to scumread like one of those people max.

where did the 2 come from?

[babyspice666]

Im not sure babyspice is experienced enough at forum mafia to consciously know that tying the vote is better for scum there.

Hi everyone!! Sorry for the late post, just getting caught up on everything now. going to take me a bit to read it all but ill post my thoughts once I've gone through the pages

hi still here and reading, promise i will vote before the day ends

okay popping back in, ive read most of the thread and I'm going to ##vote Just

However I have a hard time fully believing that they read most of the thread, and they never posted any thoughts after saying they would do so.

Who is friends with this person and how do they usually play mafia?

hi okay i have never played mafia before on a forum like this so please keep that in mind lol

yesterday i spent like 2 hours reading but couldnt get through it all, saw that most people had voted for just and i didn't want to cause a tie by voting for someone else

i genuinely did not realize that i had tied it , i had to leave right after i voted for a work staff party so literally put in my vote then had to go and realizing now that is not the move lol

i will explain why i did eventually vote just , I thought his argument against bozo made it seem like he was lying and trying to pin blame on someone ( the whole saying he was online when bozo said he hides his status), im not familiar with his gameplay but I thought some of his posts were a little sketchy, but then Kakarroto said that was somewhat common so I questioned it a little. But then at the end it seemed like if I voted for someone else it would have the chance of creating a tie

my thoughts on everyone else (honestly based on the first 30 pages, ill read more today so this is probs somewhat outdated) were that i initially thought sweetandcool was maybe scum bc he entered saying he was town and jumped on Kak to vote him out immediately after he said something (but also maybe this was a joke bc it was still D1)

brainbomb was being very silly so i thought that he was just goofing around and not scum, but then i thought maybe it was sus that he was wanting to pair w sweet and others bc i thought sweet was scum?

then jamie came in really hot and so i thought maybe he was being defensive and wanted to participate so people wouldnt think he was scum

frogster was very active in the forum which i thought was interesting bc he was a new player but then realized he had played before. i felt like he was town just trying aggressively to figure things out, the only thing i thought was kinda weird was when someone asked how he plays as scum and he says he ghosts the forum... like why would you admit exactly what you do as scum. that made me not trust his answer and then not trust him a little.

lfischl im very curious about. its interesting that everyone here has played so much together that they know how certain people tend to play, and they thought lfischl was being suspicious.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ah...yeah...we've got a lot of maple whiskey here too.

But yeah, snow days are usually feeding my kids maple snow.

I was thinking you brewed tea and then poured syrup in.

You can do that as well.

I occasionally put maple syrup in my coffee.

Yeah...there's a reason I buy it by the gallon.

Probably need to just start tapping my trees. Can drink the sap without boiling.

Now...can you go read my post where I spelled things out for you and asked what you were thinking?

Here it is:

Sorry if I seem tetchy but you're doing Bob's thing where you ask a question about a single post in isolation even though that post is very obviously one part of a conversation. It's annoying because it requires redundant extra posts to answer even though the context was already plainly available.

I understood and read all that.

You had 2 options once you decide to change vote to avoid tie:

1) swap leading wagons
2) leave leading wagons entirely

Advantage of option 1: makes a 2 vote lead so a new person joining doesn't tie again

Disadvantage of option 1: If someone on other wagon cross posts same thing....you guys retie

Advantage of option 2: It's less commonly done, AND if nobody else does it, then there's an odd number of people on the leading wagons now so a tie is impossible.

Disadvantage of option 2: If someone outside the wagons joins...may recause a tie.


I assumed you had this in mind. But you really were voting your preference at the literal last second when your motivation was to avoid a tie?

I answered that post already, Bunny.

[bozotheclown]

Bozo is correct. @Jamie to select someone to select up or down.

Back in 6 to 7 hours.

Alright.

I nominate Chaqa.

Nah.

I plan to use my night action on brainbomb.

If Chaqa does not want to choose "up or down" I think Jamie needs to pick someone else so we can finalize damo's plan to get a list in time for everyone to see it.

[foodcoats]

wat? What did you put into your food? I think I named it in a pretty neutral way that doesn't misrepresent it, given I thought about the naming only for a couple of seconds. That post feels totally out of the world. What a very strange thing to hang on.

Sorry if I misrepresented you, Kak. The thing is that there is a narrative throughout the thread right now where some people are saying they want to control their own PR action choice. My point is that everyone needs to realize that is a meaningless choice for town, or an illusion of freedom. Our best chance of getting to a place where townfolk can make meaningful, impactful choices with their targets is by collaborating on N1 to get the maximum information and figure out our roles.

We need to fight back against the “muh freedums!” argument, because ultimately not collaborating with town as soon as possible reduces ALL of town’s ability to make meaningful, powerful effects with their actions. Some people may not yet understand just how pointless choosing a target is tonight (for town, anyway; scum have much more info and can make decent directed moves tonight).

I agree that we need as much participation as possible in targeting players is a assigned order, so I think we should go ahead with selecting a list and encourage everyone to follow it, and those who do not can explain why they think their choice was more beneficial than their target from the list.

The attempt to do damo's selection method failed. Can we quickly agree on a method?

I will say again that doing alphabetical and targeting next in line is basically as random as we can get and is very simple so we have better chances of getting people to understand and follow. We can mix it up tomorrow night (hopefully by then people will better appreciate the power of this strategy).

[damo666]

Bozo is correct. @Jamie to select someone to select up or down.

Back in 6 to 7 hours.

Alright.

I nominate Chaqa.

So chaqa now decides if we count up 4 or down 4, right? Basically decides between the two lists I posted (if I didn't make a mistake that is)?

Correct

[foodcoats]

Alright.

I nominate Chaqa.

Nah.

I plan to use my night action on brainbomb.

If Chaqa does not want to choose "up or down" I think Jamie needs to pick someone else so we can finalize damo's plan to get a list in time for everyone to see it.

Okay or we do this. But again if we just say "go alpha" it's very easy and unambiguous for everyone.

[Jamiet99uk]

I answered that post already, Bunny.

(It's on Page 81, if you care to look).

[brainbomb]

Im not sure babyspice is experienced enough at forum mafia to consciously know that tying the vote is better for scum there.

Hi everyone!! Sorry for the late post, just getting caught up on everything now. going to take me a bit to read it all but ill post my thoughts once I've gone through the pages

hi still here and reading, promise i will vote before the day ends

okay popping back in, ive read most of the thread and I'm going to ##vote Just

However I have a hard time fully believing that they read most of the thread, and they never posted any thoughts after saying they would do so.

Who is friends with this person and how do they usually play mafia?

hi okay i have never played mafia before on a forum like this so please keep that in mind lol

yesterday i spent like 2 hours reading but couldnt get through it all, saw that most people had voted for just and i didn't want to cause a tie by voting for someone else

i genuinely did not realize that i had tied it , i had to leave right after i voted for a work staff party so literally put in my vote then had to go and realizing now that is not the move lol

i will explain why i did eventually vote just , I thought his argument against bozo made it seem like he was lying and trying to pin blame on someone ( the whole saying he was online when bozo said he hides his status), im not familiar with his gameplay but I thought some of his posts were a little sketchy, but then Kakarroto said that was somewhat common so I questioned it a little. But then at the end it seemed like if I voted for someone else it would have the chance of creating a tie

my thoughts on everyone else (honestly based on the first 30 pages, ill read more today so this is probs somewhat outdated) were that i initially thought sweetandcool was maybe scum bc he entered saying he was town and jumped on Kak to vote him out immediately after he said something (but also maybe this was a joke bc it was still D1)

brainbomb was being very silly so i thought that he was just goofing around and not scum, but then i thought maybe it was sus that he was wanting to pair w sweet and others bc i thought sweet was scum?

then jamie came in really hot and so i thought maybe he was being defensive and wanted to participate so people wouldnt think he was scum

frogster was very active in the forum which i thought was interesting bc he was a new player but then realized he had played before. i felt like he was town just trying aggressively to figure things out, the only thing i thought was kinda weird was when someone asked how he plays as scum and he says he ghosts the forum... like why would you admit exactly what you do as scum. that made me not trust his answer and then not trust him a little.

lfischl im very curious about. its interesting that everyone here has played so much together that they know how certain people tend to play, and they thought lfischl was being suspicious.

this is actually pretty great and tells me a decent amount about how you think. Thank you