M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

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BunnyGo
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2721 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:17 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:15 pm
I was just re-reading the time when Bo_Sox townslipped in TrPrado's Reverse Mafia game and immediately got himself killed on D1.

https://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?thre ... hreadPager

Truly one of the classic moments of all time.
What is a reverse mafia game? The town team has a night chat?
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Bonatogether
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2722 Post by Bonatogether » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:33 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:13 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:32 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:57 am
First analysis of a pair of players: Bona-Durga

<snip>

Conclusions? I'm just surprised that the two of them managed to both be fairly active, and basically the same times, and engage with lots of players--except each other.

Time for sleep (my date is complaining about the typing waking her).
What conclusions do you draw from it? You did the analysis.
As a bayesian signal only: I had previous had a null on Durga and a scumlean on you. This moved her higher as a consequence and you as well.

My thoughts on hunting here: I need to find whole teams because finding individuals and then using their flips to update my priors on other reads doesn't work.
I don't understand the reasoning behind this first paragraph.
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BunnyGo
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2723 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:41 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:33 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:13 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:32 am


What conclusions do you draw from it? You did the analysis.
As a bayesian signal only: I had previous had a null on Durga and a scumlean on you. This moved her higher as a consequence and you as well.

My thoughts on hunting here: I need to find whole teams because finding individuals and then using their flips to update my priors on other reads doesn't work.
I don't understand the reasoning behind this first paragraph.
Everything is my best thoughts. Even someone standing up and shouting “fuck this game! I’m scum! Vote me out! I want out!” Isn’t a guarantee of their being on the scum team. And with no flips, very little will give me 100% certainty. Everything is a matter of degrees and opinions. And what I see changes those opinions but shouldn’t overwrite them entirely. This video (and many others by Grant) is worth watching in it’s entirety. He’s really good.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lG4VkPoG3ko

So, what should my opinion be of whether you and Durga are scum given my observation? It should increase based on what I previously thought.

Having just skimmed the last game I was in with Durga, she was scum and I was a crappy PR. Very similar to this. And she played very similarly. So I’m bumping her up a little more in my scum read. Will try to provide quotes and summary from bot later (still on mobile) but people can search the bot for old games in the same search location just change the game searching.
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Bonatogether
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2724 Post by Bonatogether » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:44 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:41 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:33 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:13 am


As a bayesian signal only: I had previous had a null on Durga and a scumlean on you. This moved her higher as a consequence and you as well.

My thoughts on hunting here: I need to find whole teams because finding individuals and then using their flips to update my priors on other reads doesn't work.
I don't understand the reasoning behind this first paragraph.
Everything is my best thoughts. Even someone standing up and shouting “fuck this game! I’m scum! Vote me out! I want out!” Isn’t a guarantee of their being on the scum team. And with no flips, very little will give me 100% certainty. Everything is a matter of degrees and opinions. And what I see changes those opinions but shouldn’t overwrite them entirely. This video (and many others by Grant) is worth watching in it’s entirety. He’s really good.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lG4VkPoG3ko

So, what should my opinion be of whether you and Durga are scum given my observation? It should increase based on what I previously thought.

Having just skimmed the last game I was in with Durga, she was scum and I was a crappy PR. Very similar to this. And she played very similarly. So I’m bumping her up a little more in my scum read. Will try to provide quotes and summary from bot later (still on mobile) but people can search the bot for old games in the same search location just change the game searching.
So you find our lack of interaction ties our alignment together, and you softtownread her more broadly, so you soft townread me some more, up from being softscumread?
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Jamiet99uk
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2725 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:47 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:17 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:15 pm
I was just re-reading the time when Bo_Sox townslipped in TrPrado's Reverse Mafia game and immediately got himself killed on D1.

https://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?thre ... hreadPager

Truly one of the classic moments of all time.
What is a reverse mafia game? The town team has a night chat?
The Mafia was the majority:

5 Town:
2x Masons
1x Tracker
1x Quartermaster
1x Vigilante

12 Mafia:
1x Fabricator
1x Ninja
1x Stalker
9x Traitors

Third Party:
2x Cult Leaders
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Jamiet99uk
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2726 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:48 pm

Bo_Sox right at the start of D1 posted about how he wanted to find and kill the Mafia PRs. Thus immediately revealing he wasn't on the Mafia team who, since they were the majority, immediately voted him.
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Fluminator
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2727 Post by Fluminator » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:51 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:17 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:15 pm
I was just re-reading the time when Bo_Sox townslipped in TrPrado's Reverse Mafia game and immediately got himself killed on D1.

https://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?thre ... hreadPager

Truly one of the classic moments of all time.
What is a reverse mafia game? The town team has a night chat?
There are 3 teams. Mafia, town, cult
Mafia start with the majority and town and cult have to carefully recruit from the mafia to win. Bo said he was town almost first page when the mafia outnumbered the town so we killed him.

Good game in hindsight that made it to 3 player lylo but it was miserable in the moment
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kgray
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2728 Post by kgray » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:55 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:46 pm
ghug wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:42 pm
kgray wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:40 pm


No, not necessarily. He could be docsaved, or mafia could decide not to kill him to avoid a doc save, or they could believe his retraction. I'm sure it will be a whole thing
Yes, we will definitely kill Chaqa D2 if he doesn't die N1. He's not even worth roleblocking, since we'll assume he was scum and not trust his scans.
Anywho…that was a thing. Time to go digging for scum theater. Need to put whole teams together.
Hi ghug
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BunnyGo
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2729 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:57 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:44 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:41 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:33 pm

I don't understand the reasoning behind this first paragraph.
Everything is my best thoughts. Even someone standing up and shouting “fuck this game! I’m scum! Vote me out! I want out!” Isn’t a guarantee of their being on the scum team. And with no flips, very little will give me 100% certainty. Everything is a matter of degrees and opinions. And what I see changes those opinions but shouldn’t overwrite them entirely. This video (and many others by Grant) is worth watching in it’s entirety. He’s really good.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lG4VkPoG3ko

So, what should my opinion be of whether you and Durga are scum given my observation? It should increase based on what I previously thought.

Having just skimmed the last game I was in with Durga, she was scum and I was a crappy PR. Very similar to this. And she played very similarly. So I’m bumping her up a little more in my scum read. Will try to provide quotes and summary from bot later (still on mobile) but people can search the bot for old games in the same search location just change the game searching.
So you find our lack of interaction ties our alignment together, and you softtownread her more broadly, so you soft townread me some more, up from being softscumread?
I scumread you both more for it.
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BunnyGo
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2730 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:00 pm

kgray wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:55 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:46 pm
ghug wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:42 pm


Yes, we will definitely kill Chaqa D2 if he doesn't die N1. He's not even worth roleblocking, since we'll assume he was scum and not trust his scans.
Anywho…that was a thing. Time to go digging for scum theater. Need to put whole teams together.
Hi ghug
Funny. Any thoughts on EOD?
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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2731 Post by President Eden » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:02 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:47 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:17 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:15 pm
I was just re-reading the time when Bo_Sox townslipped in TrPrado's Reverse Mafia game and immediately got himself killed on D1.

https://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?thre ... hreadPager

Truly one of the classic moments of all time.
What is a reverse mafia game? The town team has a night chat?
The Mafia was the majority:

5 Town:
2x Masons
1x Tracker
1x Quartermaster
1x Vigilante

12 Mafia:
1x Fabricator
1x Ninja
1x Stalker
9x Traitors

Third Party:
2x Cult Leaders
That is heinous :lol: :lol: :lol:
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kgray
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2732 Post by kgray » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:04 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:15 pm
snowy801 wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:14 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:12 pm


I actually scum read (past tense) kgray. I'm thinking about it again.
Huh, so you have. I thought you didn't

Who was the guy who was like "let's vote her out because too good to live" then
tom/worcej, but I was trying to get her to accept the validity of the argument in principle
Tom never advocated for me to die though, despite getting whiplash when he found out I was scum in a previous game.... He never advocated that we follow through on his plan at all. Worcej picked it up with a list and damo used it to vote for me for whatever damo reason, but Tom didn't care about his proposal at all.

Pretty sus.
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kgray
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2733 Post by kgray » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:05 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:16 pm
Ooh no I found it that was damo
Yikes
Why is it more yikes that it was damo rather than someone else?
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kgray
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2734 Post by kgray » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:07 pm

ghug wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:10 am
worcej wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:56 pm
kgray wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:17 pm


How come you didn't leave us with your final reads since you were close to being the kill?
Cell phone posting issues when under time constraints.

My main reads have been spread in throughout my posts, but I am not liking snowy primarily because he had quite a few people he would be willing to flip D1 and showed no restraint in pushing those people.

I am kinda meh on Jaime so far, mostly because of lack of energy or contributing and is instead coming off as catching up too much compared to normal.

I’ve beat a dead horse on Durga - My first gut is to town her but when I write that I struggle to see any real town!Durga tells. She also falls into the snowy camp where she had far to many people willing to kill on D1 than I feel comfortable processing.

I said my short piece on Sabi. In general, I am getting the Flavius vibe from Sabi - playing stupid and acting it up to hide they are scum.

Otherwise, I currently hard-town Vecna, Eden, Bunny, Doom, and you kgray. Chaqa would be on this list, but like jasnah, I am now a little pissy at the anti-town behavior to issue ‘potential’ fake claims just to live. We’ve seen this blow up in people’s face far too often.
Why is showing no restraint scummy?
Do you agree that snowy showed no restraint?
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kgray
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2735 Post by kgray » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:09 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:57 am
First analysis of a pair of players: Bona-Durga

<snipped>
Why'd you start with Bona and Durga?
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kgray
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2736 Post by kgray » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:11 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:57 am
He cheerfully asks kgray why she's including durga on her list of possible scum.
Also I don't remember this happening and can't find it.
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BunnyGo
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2737 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:12 pm

kgray wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:09 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:57 am
First analysis of a pair of players: Bona-Durga

<snipped>
Why'd you start with Bona and Durga?
I started with a player I had a scumlean on (bona) and looked for players he didn’t have interactions with. Durga hit first (alphabetically) in a big way.
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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2738 Post by President Eden » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:12 pm

Vecna wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:28 pm
Checking in very briefly. Took some glimpses at random pages.

Read Prez-eden's big readspost.

Guess I was pretty gone last night. Blame yourself for bringing doubt to my Chaqa read, I guess.

How do you feel about the Jasnah <> Durga thing though? You scumread Durga. Think she's protecting Chaqa. But dont even consider she mightve been defending Jasnah even harder?
She clearly was, but that doesn't make jasnah mafia. (It doesn't make Chaqa mafia either - Chaqa's guilt is, in my mind, very well established by his own behavior, not by Durga's potential intervention.) There are two good reasons for mafia to have taken the stance Durga did RE: jasnah.
1. If jasnah is town then Durga is giving the objectively correct advice on how to handle jasnah's slot, which looks good for her.
2. If jasnah's alignment remains a controversy that sucks all the oxygen out of the room, that diverts hunting away from actual mafia, which achieves mafia's objectives.
And again, it's worth a reminder that for all of Durga's insistence that we not vote jasnah during the day, when the chips were down at EOD she was willing to toss that and vote jasnah out to protect Chaqa.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2739 Post by Bonatogether » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:13 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:57 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:44 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:41 pm


Everything is my best thoughts. Even someone standing up and shouting “fuck this game! I’m scum! Vote me out! I want out!” Isn’t a guarantee of their being on the scum team. And with no flips, very little will give me 100% certainty. Everything is a matter of degrees and opinions. And what I see changes those opinions but shouldn’t overwrite them entirely. This video (and many others by Grant) is worth watching in it’s entirety. He’s really good.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lG4VkPoG3ko

So, what should my opinion be of whether you and Durga are scum given my observation? It should increase based on what I previously thought.

Having just skimmed the last game I was in with Durga, she was scum and I was a crappy PR. Very similar to this. And she played very similarly. So I’m bumping her up a little more in my scum read. Will try to provide quotes and summary from bot later (still on mobile) but people can search the bot for old games in the same search location just change the game searching.
So you find our lack of interaction ties our alignment together, and you softtownread her more broadly, so you soft townread me some more, up from being softscumread?
I scumread you both more for it.
Ok. That makes more sense.
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BunnyGo
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2740 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:15 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:03 pm
kgray wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:02 pm
I have updated my D1 no-kill list, btw. Bona has replaced Bozo. Durga is still there for reasons.
sweet

why?
For kgray. Search bona* saying durg* and it’s the first hit.
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