Mini Mafia 1008 - Triple Agent

[bozotheclown]

In summary:

rivera 9; 9(1)
xorxes 11; 6(3)
damo 9; 11(1)
bozo 9; 11(1)
Ike 11; 11(2)
bb 12; 10(4)
yuuki 13; 11(5)

So (assuming I didn't make any mistakes in my math, again please someone check) EP should confess to rivera or to myself. damo or bozo would not be the worst, but not the best either.

In any case, we will reduce even more the possibilities with Ike's confession and with the two old photos, so we probably will get it narrowed down to one possibility by the end of the game.

Your combinations look reasonable, but not your conclusion. We do not need to identify the entire mafia team, and all of the cases where Espresso is reported as mafia result in a 50/50 counterclaim involving Espresso. Also, rdrivera's hidden agenda makes him a questionable choice for Espresso to confess to. So, looking at the cases where Espresso is reported as town, I would say your analysis supports Espresso confessing to me or damo.

You're right about rivera, my math assumes that town!rivera will always tell the truth, but that's not a valid assumption.

A 50/50 shot is not what we want to aim for. We want to reduce the possibilities to a minimum, so that we get better than a 50/50 shot.

You are looking at the wrong thing then, you should be looking at positively identifying one mafia, not all three. For instance, if Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town, yuuki is mafia in 8 out of the 9 possibilities.

[xorxes]

Also, Espresso confessing to you after you confessed to Espresso makes no sense, and the fact you presented it as one of the best options just makes it look even more like you and Espresso are both mafia.

How does it not make sense? If I say he is town it would mean we're either both town or both mafia (like having a public old photo). If I say he is mafia, then we have caught him, because he said I was town, so he could not claim I was lying. So actually I am indeed the best candidate.

The fact you are again trying to paint everything I say as scummy for no reason makes you look more like mafia.

[yuuki]

Your combinations look reasonable, but not your conclusion. We do not need to identify the entire mafia team, and all of the cases where Espresso is reported as mafia result in a 50/50 counterclaim involving Espresso. Also, rdrivera's hidden agenda makes him a questionable choice for Espresso to confess to. So, looking at the cases where Espresso is reported as town, I would say your analysis supports Espresso confessing to me or damo.

You're right about rivera, my math assumes that town!rivera will always tell the truth, but that's not a valid assumption.

A 50/50 shot is not what we want to aim for. We want to reduce the possibilities to a minimum, so that we get better than a 50/50 shot.

You are looking at the wrong thing then, you should be looking at positively identifying one mafia, not all three. For instance, if Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town, yuuki is mafia in 8 out of the 9 possibilities.

This is exactly why espresso needs to confess to damo

[yuuki]

He probably won't though because Espresso and xorxes are both scum

[xorxes]

Your combinations look reasonable, but not your conclusion. We do not need to identify the entire mafia team, and all of the cases where Espresso is reported as mafia result in a 50/50 counterclaim involving Espresso. Also, rdrivera's hidden agenda makes him a questionable choice for Espresso to confess to. So, looking at the cases where Espresso is reported as town, I would say your analysis supports Espresso confessing to me or damo.

You're right about rivera, my math assumes that town!rivera will always tell the truth, but that's not a valid assumption.

A 50/50 shot is not what we want to aim for. We want to reduce the possibilities to a minimum, so that we get better than a 50/50 shot.

You are looking at the wrong thing then, you should be looking at positively identifying one mafia, not all three. For instance, if Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town, yuuki is mafia in 8 out of the 9 possibilities.

If I report him as town, yuuki is scum in 8/11.
If I report him as scum, EP is scum 100%.

[xorxes]

He probably won't though because Espresso and xorxes are both scum

It's looking more like yuuki+bozo trying to pocket damo.

[bozotheclown]

Also, Espresso confessing to you after you confessed to Espresso makes no sense, and the fact you presented it as one of the best options just makes it look even more like you and Espresso are both mafia.

How does it not make sense? If I say he is town it would mean we're either both town or both mafia (like having a public old photo). If I say he is mafia, then we have caught him, because he said I was town, so he could not claim I was lying. So actually I am indeed the best candidate.

The fact you are again trying to paint everything I say as scummy for no reason makes you look more like mafia.

So lets look at the case where

So lets look at case where Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town:

BDY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
IYZ

yuuki is mafia in all cases except BIR, and you would be clear. So, we would just have to have RagingIke confess to you, and we have yuuki or RagingIke positively identified as scum.

[bozotheclown]

Also, Espresso confessing to you after you confessed to Espresso makes no sense, and the fact you presented it as one of the best options just makes it look even more like you and Espresso are both mafia.

How does it not make sense? If I say he is town it would mean we're either both town or both mafia (like having a public old photo). If I say he is mafia, then we have caught him, because he said I was town, so he could not claim I was lying. So actually I am indeed the best candidate.

The fact you are again trying to paint everything I say as scummy for no reason makes you look more like mafia.

So lets look at the case where

So lets look at case where Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town:

BDY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
IYZ

yuuki is mafia in all cases except BIR, and you would be clear. So, we would just have to have RagingIke confess to you, and we have yuuki or RagingIke positively identified as scum.

However, if Espresso confesses to you and you report him as town:
BDY
BEX
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EXY
IYZ

We would have more ambiguity and no clears.

[brainbomb]

its actually dizzying watching people try to make sense of any of this.

[bozotheclown]

He probably won't though because Espresso and xorxes are both scum

It's looking more like yuuki+bozo trying to pocket damo.

OK, let look at that. If Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town, I showed that you are clear and yuuki or RagingIke can be identified as mafia. However, if Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as mafia:

In case 2, we still have 17, but with one unlikely one, so almost 16:

Actually, that's not right. I forgot we would have ~E->D, which actually reduces it to 12 with one very unlikely:

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
(DEY)
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ

DYZ and EYZ are the only possibilities with yuuki and I as mafia, which by your theory would confirm Espresso as mafia.

So, if you really believe yuuki and I are trying to pocket damo, you should want Espresso to confess to damo.

[bozotheclown]

Also, Espresso confessing to you after you confessed to Espresso makes no sense, and the fact you presented it as one of the best options just makes it look even more like you and Espresso are both mafia.

How does it not make sense? If I say he is town it would mean we're either both town or both mafia (like having a public old photo). If I say he is mafia, then we have caught him, because he said I was town, so he could not claim I was lying. So actually I am indeed the best candidate.

The fact you are again trying to paint everything I say as scummy for no reason makes you look more like mafia.

We already know Espresso is mafia if you are, confirming the reverse is true as well is minimally helpful. The chance of you reporting Espresso as mafia is low based on other events.

The bottom line is that you failed to confess to damo despite the fact that not doing so was guaranteed to make you a top scum candidate. Now, with us knowing Espresso is mafia if you are, if Espresso also fails to confess to damo based on your justifications, you and Espresso are either both mafia or both incompetent town.

[xorxes]

How does it not make sense? If I say he is town it would mean we're either both town or both mafia (like having a public old photo). If I say he is mafia, then we have caught him, because he said I was town, so he could not claim I was lying. So actually I am indeed the best candidate.

The fact you are again trying to paint everything I say as scummy for no reason makes you look more like mafia.

So lets look at the case where

So lets look at case where Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town:

BDY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
IYZ

yuuki is mafia in all cases except BIR, and you would be clear. So, we would just have to have RagingIke confess to you, and we have yuuki or RagingIke positively identified as scum.

However, if Espresso confesses to you and you report him as town:
BDY
BEX
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EXY
IYZ

We would have more ambiguity and no clears.

That sounds correct.

So if he confesses to me, we either get one scum caught 100%, or we reduce it to 11 team possibilities. If he confesses to damo (or to bozo), we also either get one scum caught 100% or we reduce it to 11(+1) team possibilities. So confessing to me is only very slightly better.

In either case, even in the worst case scenario, with Ike's confession and the old photos we will reduce it even more.

What I don't get is your insistence that confessing to damo is better, when it's just about equal or slightly worse.

[xorxes]

DYZ and EYZ are the only possibilities with yuuki and I as mafia, which by your theory would confirm Espresso as mafia.

If I was certain you two were mafia, Espresso's confession would be irrelevant to me. The problem here is reducing the possibilities so that every townie can be certain.

So, if you really believe yuuki and I are trying to pocket damo, you should want Espresso to confess to damo.

That's faulty reasoning.

[bozotheclown]

So lets look at the case where

So lets look at case where Espresso confesses to damo and damo reports him as town:

BDY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
IYZ

yuuki is mafia in all cases except BIR, and you would be clear. So, we would just have to have RagingIke confess to you, and we have yuuki or RagingIke positively identified as scum.

However, if Espresso confesses to you and you report him as town:
BDY
BEX
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EXY
IYZ

We would have more ambiguity and no clears.

That sounds correct.

So if he confesses to me, we either get one scum caught 100%, or we reduce it to 11 team possibilities. If he confesses to damo (or to bozo), we also either get one scum caught 100% or we reduce it to 11(+1) team possibilities. So confessing to me is only very slightly better.

In either case, even in the worst case scenario, with Ike's confession and the old photos we will reduce it even more.

What I don't get is your insistence that confessing to damo is better, when it's just about equal or slightly worse.

It is better because if he confesses to damo or me, we get one scum 100% in one case and 50/50 in the other case, but if he confesses to you we get 100% in one case and something less than 50/50 in the other case. That is not even considering that you and Espresso are already connected as a possible scum pair, or that you failed to confess to damo phase 1.

[bozotheclown]

DYZ and EYZ are the only possibilities with yuuki and I as mafia, which by your theory would confirm Espresso as mafia.

If I was certain you two were mafia, Espresso's confession would be irrelevant to me. The problem here is reducing the possibilities so that every townie can be certain.

So, if you really believe yuuki and I are trying to pocket damo, you should want Espresso to confess to damo.

That's faulty reasoning.

I do not think it is faulty, if you really think there is a good chance yuuki and I are mafia and damo is town, having Espresso confess to damo would be the best way to expose us.

[JuiceWRLD]

Can i ask, what is this mafia thing all about?

[JuiceWRLD]

May I ask, what is this mafia thing all about

[JuiceWRLD]

It’s confusing me

[BunnyGo]

1. If yuuki is town, damo and bozo are town.
2. If xorxes is mafia, Espresso is mafia.
3. If Espresso is town, xorxes is town.
4. If damo is mafia, yuuki is mafia.
5. If bozo is mafia, yuuki is mafia.

1 and 2 are redundant given 3, 4, and 5.

Hello BunnyGo, as the GM your interest in the game is appreciated, but in the future please refrain from posting in game threads unless you are a participant. Thank you.

Sorry, just saw the logic above in my feed (and didn't realize the context).

[EspressoPatronum]

its actually dizzying watching people try to make sense of any of this.

I'm unfortunately in this position, too. This game seems more like a solve puzzle than what I'm used to.

I'll just rely on groupthink to carry the day.