AAR/EOG: Gunboat with hellalt

[DougJoe]

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=1468524

S01: Ah, I drew Russia. Not what I was hoping for, but we take what we get. I think a lot about playing Mos-Stp but ultimately decide against it - too worried about Turkey at the start... and as much as I want to do something else other than move to Gal, it's hard not to...

Stp-GOB, War-Gal, Mos-Ukr, Sev-BLA

S01 Results/A01: Well, nothing too crazy here, although France moved to ENC. Turkey didn't move to Arm, so that's good. I'm probably gonna get bounced out of Swe, hopefully England doesn't convoy to Norway. France can't get both Spa/Por this turn now. I think about taking the risk of not supporting into Rum but, again, it's hard not to.

GOB-Swe, War-Gal, Sev S Ukr-Rum

A01 Results/W01: Expected bounce in Sweden and England put a fleet in Norway and used the army to cover Lon. France and England bounce into Belgium. Looks like this is shaping up to be A/I versus R/T? I think I have to build A Mos here.

Build A Mos

S02: None of the builds around the board are surprising - glad that Turkey built F Smy. I feel like I need a friend and for some reason England seems like a good idea. I'll support Nwy-Swe as that will help keep Stp safe in the short term. In the south, I'll keep going with the A/I vs R/T idea and try to support War-Gal.

Moves: GOB S Nwy-Swe, Mos-Ukr, Rum S War-Gal, Sev S Rum H

S02 Results/A02: Ok, so this is interesting. Turkey tries to take Rumania but fails. Austria also taps Rumania. Germany moves to Silesia. Italy convoys to Albania and moves his army back north to Vie... it looks like he wants to go for Trieste? England does move to Sweden. France gets Belgium.

I'm already feeling like I'm on my back feet, but I'm hoping that the Austrian will now be more concerned with the Italian and not play Bud & Ser S Gal-Rum. Rather than go straight defense with Ukr & Sev support Rum, I think I'm going to be more aggressive. I don't think A/T are going to coordinate so Sev S Rum is at least defense against Turkey. I want to at least tap Gal, so Ukr-Gal... and then I don't see any reason not to support that as much as possible... although Germany might tap War? I have no idea what he's up to... and I'll support England in Sweden, England needs a build.

Moves: GOB S (E) Swe, Sev S Rum, Rum & War S Ukr-Gal.

A02 Results/W02: England, why? You had Sweden, I was going to help you... sigh. Austria did turn back around towards Italy, who tried to take Greece (not Tri) and failed. He also tried to move to Tyo and was bounced by Germany... not sure exactly what's going on there. Looks like England also entered some invalid orders and used NTH to support to Bel instead of convoy to Bel. Germany gets Sweden. France is 2, Germany is +1.

Moves: none

S03: France's builds aren't surprising, Germany builds another fleet (I don't know if I like that or not). I think I have to support Nwy-Swe again. I won't be surprised if I get popped out of GOB or if England panics and plays to Stp but honestly if he does I just destroy GOB and it's a fleet there not an army and there are worse things.

In the south... this one is tough. Turkey didn't attack me again but also tapped ION instead of attacking Austria? Maybe he thought that Italy was still on Austria's side? Italy can't be, though, right?

In any case, I don't think I can try to pivot to work with Austria here? I think I have to either try for Budapest or tap Serbia so Turkey can try for Greece.

...as much as Turkey getting into Greece would be nice, I'm not sure if he's going to do it with an army or a fleet. He needs to do it with an army.

...but even if I get Budapest, I might not be able to hold it, especially if I take it with Rum. I almost have to try with Gal.

*sigh* I don't know.

I have this funny feeling that if I tap Serbia, both Italy and Turkey will try to take Greece and they'll bounce. So Budapest it is.

Moves: GOB S Nwy-Swe, War-Gal, Sev S Rum, Rum S Gal-Bud.

S03 Results/A03: Well, I got into Budapest, quite unexpectedly. Italy supported Mun-Tyo. England and I (Russia) each supported the other to Swe. Austria supported AEG-ION, Italy supported AEG-Gre. Germany tapped Vie? Is he trying to get me on side? Alb tapped Tri, so I get into Bud. I may not hold it due to Boh, but we'll see what happens.

Gal & Rum S Bud. Sev S Rum. The only question is what to do with Bud and GOB. I'll throw Turkey a bone and support Bul-Ser just in case... GOB, I don't know. I think I'm just going to have it hold, can't say why but that's what it feels like is the right thing to do.

Moves: GOB H, Sev S Rum, Rum S Gal-Bud, War-Gal

A03 Results/W03: There's a lot that happens this turn! I keep Budapest. England moves Nwy-Ska and I'm not sure what that's about. London holds again and IRI moves to NAO... but France convoys to Wales and moves MAO-IRI. England is in serious trouble. In the south, Turkey takes Greece (with the fleet, not the army *sigh*) Germany taps Boh, tries to support Italy... and now Italy takes Trieste.

So Italy, Turkey, and Russia are +1.

What to build? My initial thought is to build another army in War or Mos to use in the south... but I look at what's going on with E/F and feel like France is already a solo threat because he's probably going to get all three of the English home centers and I feel like I'm going to need another fleet in the north to help stop him to some degree and the south seems stable enough that I can manage it.

Moves: Build F Stp (nc)

S04: Italy builds another army in Rome and Turkey also builds A Ank. (I probably should have been more concerned about the Turkish build than I was at the time...)

I debate a lot over whether to move Stp-Nwy. On one hand, I don't really want to hurt England. On the other hand, I feel like I have to try to get the piece of him that I can because France is going to completely crush him. Plus, I was a little soured by the move out of Swe when I supported him in into it the first place. So I queue up Stp-Nwy. Otherwise, in the south, I decide to defend things and take a swipe at Vienna even thought I don't expect to get it.

England goes NMR is replaced and as much as I'd like to new New England a chance, I feel like I don't have time. So Stp-Nwy stays.

I have a funny feeling that England is going to try to play NAO-MAO because what else is NAO going to do?

Moves: Stp-Nwy, GOB H, Sev S Rum S Bud S Gal-Vie

S04 Results/A04: Oh, [expletive]. There's the Turkish stab. I do get into Norway and Vienna, though, so it's not *all* bad. France doesn't block NAO-MAO and that's exactly what England moved which means he's past the French lines. Boh-Vie happens again. Looks like F/G are at least somewhat on the same page (or want to be). Germany can't force Stp but his move to Finland is annoying. Italy has advanced on Turkey at least to some degree.

I'm probably going to lose Sev (to Bul-Rum, BLA S Arm-Sev.) Since F Sev is doomed, what can I do with it that is useful? I think it makes sense to play Sev-Rum and then try for Serbia with Bud S Rum-Ser. I'm a little worried about leaving Vienna on its own (I could see Austria support Boh-Vie since Germany has done Boh-Vie twice now) but IIWII.

As far as Norway goes, I'm going to self-bounce in Stp to protect against Finland.

...but, now that I think about it, I think I want to hold Nwy in the case of Swe S Nwy - I could see Germany doing that to hurt England. [Editor's note: After the fact, I realize that Swe might be better served supporting Den instead of Nwy.]

We'll still use GOB to cover Stp.

Moves: Nwy H, GOB-Stp (sc), Vie S Bud S Rum-Ser, Sev-Rum.

A04 Results/W04:

Well, it could have been worse!

Austria causes his own death by tapping Tri and cutting an unexpected support of Serbia... so I get Serbia. Also, Tyo-Tri means I keep Vienna. I do lose Sev as expected. My last minute change away from the bounce in Stp works out (although holding GOB would have been even better). I actually get 3 new dots but lose one... but I have to disband F Sev, so technically I get to build 3 (but I can't build in Stp, so I only get to build 2, which will of course be A War, A Mos).

In other interesting news, Germany moves to Gal (that's quite annoying)... and supports a move from Nwy-Stp and tries to move behind into Norway... which doesn't work because I held Norway. England loses Lvp and London but takes Spain which is going to be annoying for France to chase down. France might not have gotten London this year if he'd defended MAO but I'd rather have the +1 from Lvp, not London, and not have an English fleet behind my lines.

I'm also surprised here that Italy doesn't try for Greece as I thought it was pretty obvious that it would be undefended due to the obvious Bul-Rum. (Post game comment - Italy won so I can't be critical of his play, I was just surprised here.) I don't know, though, if Italy is Pro-Russia or Pro-Turkey here or neither.

Moves: Build A Mos, A War (what else is there?)

S05: Ok, I've got my two armies, now what to do? The long term goal is to get Sev back (if Turkey had put a fleet there I might be less concerned about it). In any case, I think through a lot of tactical possibilities but I settle on using Ser to tap Bul, Mos to tap Sev, and moving Bud to Rum to hopefully bounce a move to Rum. This *is* weak to BLA S Bul-Rum, Con-Bul, but I think it's the best I've got. I also want to kick Germany out of Gal and I decide on risking Vienna now rather than Warsaw next turn to do it... and speaking of Germany, I decide to have Stp S Fin (I really don't want to fight Germany) but I also move Nwy-Swe in case of something like Swe-GOB, Den-Swe. I don't really want to fight Germany now but we'll see.

Moves: Ser-Bul, Bud-Rum, Mos-Sev, War S Vie-Gal, Nwy-Swe, Stp S Fin

S05 Results/A05:

Well, it worked out for me mostly except for Germany moving Den-SKA. Norway is in trouble. Germany retreats to Sil which still pressures Warsaw. England doesn't bounce MAO and will likely be eliminated this turn. Italy does as expected as uses AEG to take Greece (although I was not expecting the tap of Serbia).


So what to do this turn? Italy didn't support Alb-Ser and I'm not sure why - but I suspect at this point I have to trust him to some degree because I can't fight both Turkey and Italy and Turkey is the immediate threat.

I'm going to support hold Finland again and support SKA-NTH. I don't expect it to work because I think Germany is going to be agressive but I can't figure out how to give signals that I think G should attack France.

So, the south: I'd really, really like to move War-Ukr but I'm not sure that I can trust that G won't play Sil-War. So I think I have to hold on that for now. Maybe War S Sil?

Otherwise, Ser-Bul, Mos-Sev. The question then is Bud and Gal.

I don't want to leave Vie open but I also don't want to let BLA S Bul-Rum work. So I need to use Gal & Bud to defend Rum. So maybe Bud S Gal-Rum?
...don't need to tempt Italy more than necessary.
Looking at it now, maybe Bud & Gal S Ser-Rum would be the better option?
...I just don't know what Albania is going to do. Maybe just support hold Greece?
I don't know. Just going to leave it for now. A smart Italy would maybe stab here.

Moves: War S Sil, Ser-Bul, Bud S Gal-Rum, Mos S Sev, Stp S Fin, Nwy S SKA-NTH

A05 Results/W05:
Yup, I should have listened to my gut and supported Ser-Rum - and I could have played War-Ukr. I don't lose any units because Ser is piffed and I had a unit to give to offset the loss of Norway. I'll retreat Nwy-Bar.
Moves: No builds.

S06: Well, Germany built an army in Berlin which is not good news. France built F Bre, A Par which Germany *has* to see as aggressive?
Italy's in a really good place now, too.

I can't think of anything better than BAR S Stp in the north. In the south, I can't defend all three of Vie, Bud, and Rum this turn. I can't now stop Bul & Sev S BLA-Rum (which is what I expect) so it's just Bud or Vie. I flip a coin and it comes up Bud.

Moves: BAR S Stp, Mos-Sev, War-Ukr, Gal S Bud.

S06 Results/A06: As expected Turkey takes Rum... and I guessed wrong about Bud/Vie. France is still support holding Holland but all his other moves scream "coming to get you Germany"... and Germany moves to Pru and Sil... Germany, really? What did I do to you?

So, okay, now what? I feel like I have to protect Warsaw instead of using those units to try to get Rum or Sev back - I could force Sev - but I feel like now I need to help *Turkey* because of Italy's strength (which kind of sucks but IIWII). Not only do I feel like I need to protect Warsaw, but I almost feel like I have to guarantee it [Editor's note: I don't remember what my exact reasoning at the time]. So Gal, Ukr, and Mos will go towards that goal. Not sure what else to do with Budapest other than try to pop into Trieste? In the north, same as last turn, and I'll support Finland *again* to see if I can get Germany on side.

Moves Bud-Tri, Mos & Ukr S Gal-War, BAR S Stp.

A06 Results/W06: The move to Trieste didn't work (which I didn't expect it to). Germany moved one unit back to cover Munich and moved the other to Livonia. Maybe I should have anticipated he'd do that (Sil-Mun) and not forced War and hit Sev instead. Oh well. Turkey used Rum to support Sev instead of Bul and lost Bul. Italy is strong now too. France moved to WMS.

What two to remove? I can't hold Bud, so I don't think there's a point in keeping it. I think I need the three armies in the middle of the board, so that means either Stp or BAR... and I also can't keep Stp, so maybe I can use BAR to mess with France? Yuck.

Moves: Remove A Bud, F Stp.

S07: Not much to think about here. I'm going to continue to lay off of Turkey. I'll force Gal just in the hopes of slowing Italy down a little and move BAR-NWS in hopes of showing Germany that I want to annoy France.

Moves: Mos S War, War S Ukr-Gal, BAR-NWS.

S07 Results/A07: As expected, Germany is in Stp and Italy is in Bud. Unfortunately, Germany and I bounce in NWS. France gets into Holland and Denmark. Italy turns around to defend against France but still is able to get into Con because Turkey takes AEG.

Not sure what else to do other than support Gal and try to move to NWS again. I'll throw a support hold on Sev to try to let Turkey know I'm not actively trying to hurt him.

Moves: War S Gal H, BAR-NWS, Mos S Sev

A07 Results/W07:

The move to NWS works - I have a free path to Liverpool if I want it, which is kind of interesting. France plays all defense. Turkey loses Con (although if he had forced it he would have lost Rum instead, but that might have been a worthwhile tradeoff.)

I have to pull two, which I think has to be Gal and War. I consider removing Gal and Mos instead but am worried about leaving War open.

Builds: Remove A War, A Gal

S08: Not much to do other than move NWS-NAO (heading for Lvp) and support hold Stp. I've done a lot of support holding of Germany this game.

Moves: NWS-MAO, Mos S Stp

S08 Resutls/A08: France loses Denmark but retreats to Sweden and covers Edi. Italy advances north.

What to do now? Take Liverpool, and move Mos-War. If I get bounced by Italy, I can build in War. If I don't get bounced, maybe I can build in Moscow.

Moves: NAO-Lvp, Mos-War

A08 Results/W08: France moves Edi-Cly. I do get to build. Italy takes BLA.

Builds: A Mos

S09: France got rid of F Cly, so Lvp is safe for this year, but I don't know what to do with it other than hold it. I consider War S Mos-Ukr but decide against it.

Moves: Mos S War

S09 Results/A09: Italy supports Mun (smart). Italy also moves on War/Mos and takes Sev. Italy gets kicked out of WMS but gets to retreat to MAO because IRI held rather than moving south. Germany gets Sweden back.

I'm going to lose Warsaw or Moscow this turn. I think about moving War-Gal and Mos-Sev but for some reason (which I can't remember) I don't. I just support hold both. I leave Lvp in place.

Moves: Lvp H, Mos S War S Mos

A09 Results/W09: I lose Warsaw (was kind of expecting to lose Moscow and to retreat to Stp). I retreat to Livonia. I have to remove one unit, this is where I realize that I probably should not have been hindering France and decide to remove F Lvp.

Moves: Remove F Lvp

S10: Germany puts down F Berlin which *really* confuses me as I feel he needed an army. Not much to do other than...

Moves: Liv S Mos H

S10 Results/A10: France takes Lvp (would he have been better off leaving it alone to have IRI & ENC on MAO in the fall? Probably not). Italy lines up to take Munich which he can't explicitly force but I'm guessing A Bur won't help Munich. At this point, I feel like if I'm going to survive I have to force Stp now before I'm down to just one unit. Not sure what Germany is doing.

Moves: Liv S Mos-Stp

A10 Results: ...and it didn't matter anyway because Italy takes Spa, Gre, and Smy along with Mos. Had I just defended, he would have only had 17... but I would have had to pull another unit and nothing else was there to defend Moscow.

GG, Italy.

Final Thoughts:

Turkey stabbed/attacked and after that I couldn't do much with the constant on/off pressure from Germany (who I never really did seem to get a handle on during this game). I would have stayed allied with Turkey for a while if I could have, but such are the challenges of gunboat Russia. Italy did an excellent job of taking advantage of the conflict. In the end, Turkey's attack gained him nothing. I probably should have left France alone at the end instead of harassing him so he could focus on Italy in the south.

Good game, all.