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So I was just thinking about the Juggernaut and how infuriating it is to be Austria. Very frequently Italy and/or Germany fail to fight Turkey and Russia respectively until it's too late. I started thinking about previous games in which Juggernauts were effective and one thing comes to mind: a strong France.

Logically, this makes a lot of sense. France is a strong distractor to Italy; Fighting France may seem like a better idea than going after a strong Turkey. Similarly, France, England, and Germany quite frequently get into complex conflicts involving stabs. However, France and the Juggernaut Russia frequently have a common enemy of Germany, and this can convince Britain to tag along. Without either Germany or Italy fighting the Jug, AH can fall incredibly fast.

I think that France's high win rate and the Juggernaut's effectiveness are linked both ways: If a Jug stab occurs after Austria and Germany have been defeated, France is in a good position. Conversely, a strong France's tendency to distract Italy and Germany, the two countries immediately capable of fighting the Juggernaut, therefore helping the Juggernaut, comes from France's superior tactical position.

Thoughts? Comments?

I agree. If I’m France I usually want to downplay the strength of the Juggernaut and try and go for a 3 way draw when they reach the West.

I heard a really good argument from tat one diplomacy guy who has a website I think brotherboard? that Italy has the ability to send a unit out to basically go campaigning solo, as long as you get past year1 and year2 with austria you have become a very formidable person on the board
with that unit juggernaught can fail to form
IMO if juggernaught cant succeed early then it fails early

OP your observation is a good one. Data from the 2000s-era diplomacy-by-email "judge" games supports your hypothesis for France doing well when Turkey and/or Russia do well. This 2007 article collected and analyzed results from over 10,000 completed games. The analysis is focused on solo victories, but the Table 4 conclusions have to apply to some degree in a more general way.

Table 4 backs the idea, France tends to do well when Russia or Turkey does, especially after Austria is eliminated. It makes sense that the game shifts west, where France often has the edge. Even strong draws with the Juggernaut seem to boost France, likely due to shared board dynamics.

Austria is my second favourite power to draw after France, because of how powerful it is if it can survive to mid game.