Germany, Russia, and Sweden

[Jamiet99uk]

I have noticed that in my last 10 games, Germany has opened F Kie-Den 9 out of 10 times.

In those 9 games where Germany opened F Kie-Den, Germany went on to bounce Russia in Sweden, to prevent Russia gaining the Swedish SC, on 7 out of 9 occasions.

(In the other two games Germany (i) remained neutral on the issue but let Russia in, and (ii) supported Russia's fleet into Sweden), one time each).

Some of these recent games were Gunboats, some were Press games. The incidence of Germany bouncing Russia in Sweden appears about the same in both cases.

What's everyone's general approach to this question?

As Germany, do YOU have a preference for bouncing Russia, or not?

Why do we think the Swedish bounce is so commonplace?

[LouisYuan]

I think it's because Sweden is the center of Scandinavian politics. Germany, Russia, and England all want it so that they can control Norway, and threaten North Sea, St. Petersburg, and Denmark. It's just a crucial strategical leverage.

[Jamiet99uk]

I also think that it's a low-risk move for Germany to deny Russia access to Sweden, because Russia's ability to wage war on Germany in the early game is very limited.

[Gandalfthegrey]

I typically bounce in Sweden unless Russia gives me a good reason not to or E and F are acting worryingly

If you're working with the English, you can easily push Russia out of the north by denying them Sweden. If you're working with the French, it weakens Russia's ability to support England and their ability to take over Scandinavia, which you want to control (The FGR Sealion seems to have fallen out of favour, presumably because Germany kept getting crushed between Russia and France once England was dead). If you're in a Western Triple, it's a good way of showing your allies that you're committed and it weakens the nation that you'll be attacking in the next year. Russia can't really commit against you without the extra build from Sweden unless they have a very favourable situation in the South, in which case you probably want to block them anyway, because a strong Russia is going to come after you eventually. The only scenario where letting Russia in makes sense is if you're being attacked by the EF and Russia is willing to support you against your neighbours, but I've found that the EF is less popular on webDip than it is elsewhere (at least in my limited experience), so most Germany players on here are anti-Russian.

Also, I think people just don't like letting other players get stuff for free when they aren't explicitly allied, and it's rare for either party to cultivate a Germany-Russia alliance from the start of the game.

All that being said, Russia getting into Sweden ~3/10 times seems about right to me.

[JECE]

I haven't played a game in a while, so I can't speak to what is popular or even to what I usually do when presented with this situation. That said, I'm not sure that bouncing Russia out of Sweden is necessarily anti-Russian. Oftentimes it could just be an arranged bounce. Also, I think that the main risk isn't provoking a Russian invasion, but rather provoking a Russian collapse. If the Russians lose their capital in Saint Petersburg, then nobody can come and save you if you face an EF since nobody besides you and EF will be on the other side of the traditional SW-NE stalemate line. And it's probably still too early in 1901 to know whether an EF will or will not form against you. The ideal scenario from a German perspective would of course be for Russia to let you into Sweden, from which you could then proceed to control what happens in and around Scandinavia.

[VonEconomo]

I usually prefer to let Russia into Sweden, especially if they're game to limit Northern fleet builds. I don't think there's anything stronger for Germany's diplomatic positioning than a Russia everyone is afraid of.