Austria vs Bots

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Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#281 Post by Trigfea63 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:08 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:24 pm
Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 5:47 am
Observations for Autumn '04: Italy not only ordered to EAS and ION, he also ordered F ADR-->ALB. This appears to set him up for an attack on Greece: ALB-->GRE supported by ION (or vice versa) and TRI-->SER. I don't want Italy capturing Greece. To thwart Italy, BUL will support-hold GRE. With the other units, I have a couple of options. One is: AEG-->EAS, CON-->AEG, SMY-->CON. If I do that, and it works, my units will be exactly where I want them. And there's a decent chance it will work: if Italy makes the attack on Greece, for example. On the other hand, if Italy orders ION-->EAS again, none of my units move anywhere (although I do block Italy from EAS again). Another possibility is: CON-->SMY, SMY-->ANK, ensuring some progress. It then takes one more turn to get the units all in position. For the Aegean fleet, AEG-->EAS blocks the potential ION-->EAS but leaves AEG vacant, while AEG support-hold BUL leaves EAS vacant. And is support-holding BUL really necessary?
I like the idea of support holding Greece, although I'm not sure that's what Italy is after at the moment.

One other option, if you're willing to risk letting Italy into EMS, is AEG C Smy-Con, Con-Smy. Not sure right now which of the three options I like best, although I'd probably lean towards AEG->EMS, Smy-Ank, Con-Smy.
Alright, I've made up my mind. I'll order AEG-->EAS, CON-->AEG, SMY-->ANK, and BUL support-hold GRE. It seems most likely Italy will either move to EAS again, or else attack Greece. My orders work well against both of those possibilities. If Italy does move ION-->EAS, and my Aegean move bounces, I'd really prefer to get the Constantinople fleet down to Smyrna, so it can let out into EAS next turn. But: it's also possible Italy will order ION-->AEG, in which case it would not be good if I failed to block Aegean, especially on a turn when I'm leaving Constantinople open. These orders feel right to me. We'll see how it goes.

Here are the Autumn '04 results. I'll comment on them later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Trigfea63
Posts: 291
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#282 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:17 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:08 pm
Alright, I've made up my mind. I'll order AEG-->EAS, CON-->AEG, SMY-->ANK, and BUL support-hold GRE. It seems most likely Italy will either move to EAS again, or else attack Greece. My orders work well against both of those possibilities. If Italy does move ION-->EAS, and my Aegean move bounces, I'd really prefer to get the Constantinople fleet down to Smyrna, so it can let out into EAS next turn. But: it's also possible Italy will order ION-->AEG, in which case it would not be good if I failed to block Aegean, especially on a turn when I'm leaving Constantinople open. These orders feel right to me. We'll see how it goes.

Here are the Autumn '04 results. I'll comment on them later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
I'm happy with the results. Italy did try for Greece, and I thwarted him with my support-hold from Bulgaria. My other 3 units all succeeded in their moves. My position has improved considerably.

In the north, bot-Russia did *not* figure out to move Baltic Sea to Denmark. He made a supported move to Sweden, which worked, but he left Norway vacant. Germany dislodged England from StP and England retreated to the vacated Norway. A 3-way center swap among them. Their SC-counts remain unchanged. In fact, all 7 powers remained at the same SC count. France dislodged England from MAO, and England retreated to Gascony. England also moved NTH-->ENG. He now has 3 on MAO and will probably retake it this turn. Italy moved to TYS and may be looking to sneak into an Iberian center or 3 after England and Germany do the hard work of grinding down the French defenses.

Strategically, I think I'd like to get another build, and I'd like to weaken Italy. Maybe also solidify the alliance with Russia. I've been ignoring my purple pal the last few turns. Snippets of thoughts on possible Spring '05 moves:

ANK-->CON looks pretty good
EAS-->ION? With support?
Support-hold Greece again?
Support the Russian A RUM-->SER?

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#283 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:26 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:24 pm
I think that having to write out one's thoughts helps clarify them - I'm a software developer by trade and I've puzzled through many a bug by simply describing to someone else what the code in question is trying to do...
I agree. I'm going to try to analyze more carefully each time. It takes time. First, to think it out; then, to write it out. But it does produce better play, and better results.
DougJoe wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 2:24 pm
One other option, if you're willing to risk letting Italy into EMS, is AEG C Smy-Con, Con-Smy.
I did consider the convoy-enabled unit-swap. I never would have thought of that. Someone used it on me once, in a gunboat game. It took me a few minutes staring at the results map before I figured out what happened!

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#284 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:12 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:17 am
Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:08 pm

Here are the Autumn '04 results. I'll comment on them later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
I'm happy with the results. Italy did try for Greece, and I thwarted him with my support-hold from Bulgaria. My other 3 units all succeeded in their moves. My position has improved considerably.

In the north, bot-Russia did *not* figure out to move Baltic Sea to Denmark. He made a supported move to Sweden, which worked, but he left Norway vacant. Germany dislodged England from StP and England retreated to the vacated Norway. A 3-way center swap among them. Their SC-counts remain unchanged. In fact, all 7 powers remained at the same SC count. France dislodged England from MAO, and England retreated to Gascony. England also moved NTH-->ENG. He now has 3 on MAO and will probably retake it this turn. Italy moved to TYS and may be looking to sneak into an Iberian center or 3 after England and Germany do the hard work of grinding down the French defenses.

Strategically, I think I'd like to get another build, and I'd like to weaken Italy. Maybe also solidify the alliance with Russia. I've been ignoring my purple pal the last few turns. Snippets of thoughts on possible Spring '05 moves:

ANK-->CON looks pretty good
EAS-->ION? With support?
Support-hold Greece again?
Support the Russian A RUM-->SER?
Personally, I would *not* help Russia into Serbia - it feel it blocks off Turkey's expansion too much and Serbia is the tactical key to that area of the map. When I'm working with Russia-bot, I prefer to get Tri/Ser/Gre and have him in Rum/Bud/Vie. You won't get into Trieste if you let Russia-bot have Serbia, and getting an army in Tri is great for punching Italy. The bots don't get too angry with not making progress too quickly so I think you have at least a few turns to play with before Russia changes his strategy.

Ank-Con is good. If you want to be extra aggressive, you could use EMS to tap ION and use AEG/Bul to try for Greece yourself. Otherwise, I don't see any reason not to go EMS->ION supported by AEG. If you get in, that sets you up really well to try for Greece in the Autumn.
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:26 am
I did consider the convoy-enabled unit-swap. I never would have thought of that. Someone used it on me once, in a gunboat game. It took me a few minutes staring at the results map before I figured out what happened!
Heh, it's funny the way our brains work sometimes, isn't it?

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#285 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:10 am

DougJoe wrote:
Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:51 pm
I didn't get Ruhr, but I didn't lose Holland, either, Germany tried to take Holland from Kiel and I cut both supports. I'm not sure that moving to WMS and GoL was a good thing, as Italy ended up +3 for the year... and built two fleets. Gotta figure out how to deal with *that*. I really may be forced to move ENC to MAO this turn and try to figure out some wizardry in the north to stay competitive up there... but I don't know.
So, I thought a lot about what to do this turn...

In the Mediterranean, I was originally going to move WMS-Tun and GoL-TYS... but I got nervous about Italy doing something tricky like TYS->WMS and getting a fleet "behind me" forcing me to guess between it moving to MAO or Spa... so I decided to just have those two fleets support hold each other. I did end up moving ENC-MAO, hoping that Germany would be bot-like and play the same moves he played last turn. Given that assumption, I decided it would be worthwhile to continue to pressure him and play NTH-SKA, using London and NWS to bounce him out of NTH. The rest of my moves were similar as well: Bel S Hol, Hol S Bur-Ruh... the only difference was that since I wasn't expecting to actually get into Ruh, I moved Par-Gas, as I felt it was better positioned there for potential use against Italy.

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

So nothing much happened that surprised me, although if I would have stuck to my original fleet moves I would have kept Italy's fleets back and that would give me more time to stall. Italy did setup to take Ankara, and *of course* moved back to Piedmont. He also moved to Galicia, and I'm not sure what that's about. I did get into SKA and kept Germany out of NTH.

I think, strategically, I just have to be able to shut Italy down in the West - if I can do that, the rest might be okay. I don't know what Italy is up to with War/Sev/Mos - it would be nice if he takes those and Germany loses units to fight me with, but we'll see. If Germany removed almost anything other than Ukr or Sev I could probably rip him open.

This turn, in the Med it's Gas-Pie, GoL S WMS, WMS S MAO-Naf. Build up as much of a line as I can, although I may eventually be forced to fall back to MAO/Spa.

The north is a little trickier, as I have basically two options (given that I will defend Holland the same way as last turn): I can either try to sneak SKA into Swe and get a build (although Germany losing a unit is more important) or use SKA and NWS to move London to NTH and defer the chance to get a build to next year. The more I think about it, the more I like the latter (there's that position vs. centers thing again) since it both increases the threat on Norway and Denmark and gives me this turn to see what Germany does and maybe I can get a read for next year off of that.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#286 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:37 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:10 am

This turn, in the Med it's Gas-Pie, GoL S WMS, WMS S MAO-Naf. Build up as much of a line as I can, although I may eventually be forced to fall back to MAO/Spa.

The north is a little trickier, as I have basically two options (given that I will defend Holland the same way as last turn): I can either try to sneak SKA into Swe and get a build (although Germany losing a unit is more important) or use SKA and NWS to move London to NTH and defer the chance to get a build to next year. The more I think about it, the more I like the latter (there's that position vs. centers thing again) since it both increases the threat on Norway and Denmark and gives me this turn to see what Germany does and maybe I can get a read for next year off of that.
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Well, I made the right decision in not going for Sweden, as Germany used Denmark to cover it (I thought he might be brave and self-bounce Nor and Den but I was wrong). So now Denmark is open (and the threat to the North sea is greatly reduced). I got into North Africa and Italy made no progress in the south save for the fleet build in Rome for taking Ankara. Germany pulled a unit away from me to go deal with Italy, who did try to take Ukr, which means he's probably going for the rest of the east (and should get it eventually). (Side note: not sure Italy needed to build a fleet - he's got others he could bring over and an army might have been better?) One other little thing I did is not actually try for Ruh, because I don't want Bur to move until I can "back it up".

So for the south, I take a pot shot at Tunis (I won't get it, but I think it makes Italy wonder if I try) and bounce again in Mar. In the north, I think I keep the defense of Holland the same (Bel S Hol, Bur-Ruh). The question now is whether to try for Norway or Denmark? Denmark is more tactically valuable than Norway, but depending on what Germany does I may not be able to hold it. If I try for Norway and don't get it (I would assume the defense is StP and Swe S Nwy) and Germany leaves Denmark open then maybe I switch and try for Denmark in the Fall. If he moves Sweden back to Denmark, I get Norway and I think I can hold it and the North Sea in the Autumn.

So it's NTH and NWS S SKA-Nwy. Let's see what happens...

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#287 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:30 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 3:37 am
So for the south, I take a pot shot at Tunis (I won't get it, but I think it makes Italy wonder if I try) and bounce again in Mar. In the north, I think I keep the defense of Holland the same (Bel S Hol, Bur-Ruh). The question now is whether to try for Norway or Denmark? Denmark is more tactically valuable than Norway, but depending on what Germany does I may not be able to hold it. If I try for Norway and don't get it (I would assume the defense is StP and Swe S Nwy) and Germany leaves Denmark open then maybe I switch and try for Denmark in the Fall. If he moves Sweden back to Denmark, I get Norway and I think I can hold it and the North Sea in the Autumn.

So it's NTH and NWS S SKA-Nwy. Let's see what happens...
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Darn it, I almost changed my mind after writing that post to move GoL->Tus. I wish I would have. I did take Nwy but it's not guaranteed as Germany pulled back out of HEL to cover Denmark and moved Swe-Ska so Nwy could retreat to Swe. Italy did take Sev and he's not going to lose it, so Germany will be down at least one unit next year (he'll probably remove Ukr). Italy also has fleets coming west but it'll be a couple of turns before they're useful.

So what now? The good news is that the move out of HEL takes the pressure off of Holland, as Belgium alone can defend it. Bur is still vulnerable (as it has been for a while, now - I've known that but Germany hasn't noticed... maybe he's not smart enough to realize Gascony needs to be used in the south?) Italy's unit in Tuscany complicates things, though, as GoL how could have two attackers and it's not enough by itself to keep WMS safe since Tus could cut support. I really don't think I want to bounce in Mar again and have GoL get dislodged and have to retreat to Spain - I think that makes things more complicated than I would like. The north is tricky because, again, Germany has Den-NTH, StP & Swe S SKA-Nwy... and since that doesn't leave any *centers* vulnerable, I think that's what Germany is going to do. I do not want to retreat to BAR, so I think I'm going to do a little jiu-jitsu and play NWS S Nwy NTH, NTH-HEL. As far as the army situation, I still don't see Germany going for Bur, so I'm guessing he'll either support Kie-Hol again or just defend it all with Kie & Mun S Ruh. Either one of those keeps Ruhr safe... although I could get real cutesy and play Hol-Ruh supported by Bel and Bur, and have NTH bounce a potential Kie-Hol.. but if Germany does pop Nwy, it either has to go to BAR or be destroyed... if it was destroyed, I'd either have to rebuild in Bre (ick) or I could rebuild it in Mar... but I'm not sure I could hold out against Germany's three fleets in the north with only my two.

...and then there's the Mediterranean. *sigh*
The moveset I keep looking at is Naf-Tun, GoL-TYS, WMS-TYS. It stops TYS S Tus-GoL, it stops TYS S Tun-WMS, it stops Tun S TYS-WMS. The only thing it doesn't work against is Tus S TYS-GoL. Italy probably isn't going to do something other than ION S Tun, so that moveset leaves him vulernable to Gol S WMS-TYS, and I don't think he wants to leave TYS vulnerable. Even If I do have to retreat to Spain, I can try to push spain into Mar and maybe fall back with the other two...

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#288 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:56 am

Too much to quote.

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I was wrong about Germany (well, he did remove Ukr) and correct on Italy. Germany did go for Norway, but he moved from Sweden instead of SKA like I was expecting... moving from Swe was better for him since it puts 3 fleets on NTH, but I could have played NTH to SKA and held Norway, so props to bot Germany for taking that risk. Italy built an army, I wonder if it's headed towards Munich...

I don't see a good way to punch into Germany this turn - he's got some pretty good defensive options up there. I think I stick tight and see what he does in the spring to see if there's a weakness I can exploit in the fall... and then the same moves against Italy? Can't think of anything better.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#289 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:11 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:56 am

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I was wrong about Germany (well, he did remove Ukr) and correct on Italy. Germany did go for Norway, but he moved from Sweden instead of SKA like I was expecting... moving from Swe was better for him since it puts 3 fleets on NTH, but I could have played NTH to SKA and held Norway, so props to bot Germany for taking that risk. Italy built an army, I wonder if it's headed towards Munich...

I don't see a good way to punch into Germany this turn - he's got some pretty good defensive options up there. I think I stick tight and see what he does in the spring to see if there's a weakness I can exploit in the fall... and then the same moves against Italy? Can't think of anything better.
https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=438067

Ok, so Germany is only using two units to try to retake NTH. Italy seems to have stopped in the east. Based on Germany's moves, what's vulnerable? Ruhr was undefended last turn, but even if I get in I'm not sure what that gets me since he just rebuilds it in Berlin... hmm... a much riskier approach would be something like...

NWG-Nwy
NTH-Den
HEL S Hol-Kie
Bel-Ruh
Bur-Mun

There's no way that Germany moves Norway, so the support cut works and I can use NTH to tap Denmark to cut its support of Kie. This all does leave NTH vunerable to Den S SKA-NTH, but I'm thinking I have to take a chance...

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#290 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:17 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:11 am

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=438067

Ok, so Germany is only using two units to try to retake NTH. Italy seems to have stopped in the east. Based on Germany's moves, what's vulnerable? Ruhr was undefended last turn, but even if I get in I'm not sure what that gets me since he just rebuilds it in Berlin... hmm... a much riskier approach would be something like...

NWG-Nwy
NTH-Den
HEL S Hol-Kie
Bel-Ruh
Bur-Mun

There's no way that Germany moves Norway, so the support cut works and I can use NTH to tap Denmark to cut its support of Kie. This all does leave NTH vunerable to Den S SKA-NTH, but I'm thinking I have to take a chance...
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Dang it, I forgot I needed to move Bur-Mun and instead used it to support Bel-Ruh, which worked and Germany did indeed rebuild it as an army in Berlin.

Berlin can only defend Kie or Mun, I have no idea which one it will be. So it's all defense again to see what Germany does...

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#291 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:22 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:17 am

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Dang it, I forgot I needed to move Bur-Mun and instead used it to support Bel-Ruh, which worked and Germany did indeed rebuild it as an army in Berlin.

Berlin can only defend Kie or Mun, I have no idea which one it will be. So it's all defense again to see what Germany does...
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Germany played all defense, Italy protected Munich (to save it for himself, I'm sure) and is going after the east again.

Trying for Kiel again.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#292 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:33 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:22 am

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Germany played all defense, Italy protected Munich (to save it for himself, I'm sure) and is going after the east again.

Trying for Kiel again.
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Got Kiel. Now I have to figure out what to build. I was going to build a fleet in Mar, but I need now to be wary of Italy taking Munich as he's got two units on it now... he'll win if he gets it... he only needs two more and he'll get Warsaw. although a fleet in Mar frees up Gascony to go east, since Mar S GoL & Naf S WMS will probably keep Italy busy for quite a while. I'm not sure a fleet in Bre helps (although it could go to ENC and help defend NTH, freeing up HEL). Not sure army Par really helps either.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#293 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:50 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:33 am

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Got Kiel. Now I have to figure out what to build. I was going to build a fleet in Mar, but I need now to be wary of Italy taking Munich as he's got two units on it now... he'll win if he gets it... he only needs two more and he'll get Warsaw. although a fleet in Mar frees up Gascony to go east, since Mar S GoL & Naf S WMS will probably keep Italy busy for quite a while. I'm not sure a fleet in Bre helps (although it could go to ENC and help defend NTH, freeing up HEL). Not sure army Par really helps either.
Whole year recap - got Denmark, moved to BAR to defend StP. Germany loses two units, Italy builds one and France builds one, which will be fleet Bre.

This one's gonna be close, gang. As long as Germany doesn't do anything stupid I can defend Mun/Ber/StP forever (I think?). We'll see what else happens.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#294 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:19 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:50 am
Whole year recap - got Denmark, moved to BAR to defend StP. Germany loses two units, Italy builds one and France builds one, which will be fleet Bre.

This one's gonna be close, gang. As long as Germany doesn't do anything stupid I can defend Mun/Ber/StP forever (I think?). We'll see what else happens.
In Spring 1919, I got into Norway. Because of where Germany's units were (SKA and Swe) he could either go after Nwy or Den. I really didn't want him taking Denmark, so I got clever with it and used NTH to support Den, and Den to support Nwy to Swe. Germany went for SKA-Nwy S Swe, and Swe retreated to BAL. I built another army...

...but Germany removed St.P instead of BAL, which means that bot Italy is probably going to get this one. The best I can do is support Nwy-StP, but I suspect Germany will not move Nwy-Stp. I have to move Swe-Fin, and I'll convoy Bel-Nwy just in case, but I suspect this one is over.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#295 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:39 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:19 am
In Spring 1919, I got into Norway. Because of where Germany's units were (SKA and Swe) he could either go after Nwy or Den. I really didn't want him taking Denmark, so I got clever with it and used NTH to support Den, and Den to support Nwy to Swe. Germany went for SKA-Nwy S Swe, and Swe retreated to BAL. I built another army...

...but Germany removed St.P instead of BAL, which means that bot Italy is probably going to get this one. The best I can do is support Nwy-StP, but I suspect Germany will not move Nwy-Stp. I have to move Swe-Fin, and I'll convoy Bel-Nwy just in case, but I suspect this one is over.
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

All is not lost! Germany *did* move to StP and I helped him block Italy. The idiot human, however, somehow forgot to order Sweden-Finland in the spring and so had to hope bot Germany did it correctly a second time, which he did. In '21 I defended StP myself and convoyed to Norway in the Spring, then pushed that army to StP and got into Norway as well when NWS tried to snipe Edi and I blocked it.

Now I have two builds that I have to try to figure out what to do with, but it's very late here and I need some sleep.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#296 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:33 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:39 am
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

All is not lost! Germany *did* move to StP and I helped him block Italy. The idiot human, however, somehow forgot to order Sweden-Finland in the spring and so had to hope bot Germany did it correctly a second time, which he did. In '21 I defended StP myself and convoyed to Norway in the Spring, then pushed that army to StP and got into Norway as well when NWS tried to snipe Edi and I blocked it.

Now I have two builds that I have to try to figure out what to do with, but it's very late here and I need some sleep.
Ok, like many Diplomacy players I did not exactly tell the truth in my last post and I kept playing because I felt like I could finish it off... which I did:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Quick recap:
A22: Got into Livonia
S24: Got into Prussia
A24: Got into Moscow (!)
S25: Got into Berlin
A25: I expected Italy to force Moscow back and instead he supported it! Got Munch.

That makes 18! Yet another bot game that I probably should not have won, but here we are. Felt overall like it could have gone horribly wrong at several points but never quite did... That makes my record with France 24 solos out of 52 games for a win rate of 46.15%, two wins shy of 50% (although I'd have to win 4 more in a row to get to 50%).

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#297 Post by Trigfea63 » Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:00 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:33 am
DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:39 am
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

All is not lost! Germany *did* move to StP and I helped him block Italy. The idiot human, however, somehow forgot to order Sweden-Finland in the spring and so had to hope bot Germany did it correctly a second time, which he did. In '21 I defended StP myself and convoyed to Norway in the Spring, then pushed that army to StP and got into Norway as well when NWS tried to snipe Edi and I blocked it.

Now I have two builds that I have to try to figure out what to do with, but it's very late here and I need some sleep.
Ok, like many Diplomacy players I did not exactly tell the truth in my last post and I kept playing because I felt like I could finish it off... which I did:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Quick recap:
A22: Got into Livonia
S24: Got into Prussia
A24: Got into Moscow (!)
S25: Got into Berlin
A25: I expected Italy to force Moscow back and instead he supported it! Got Munch.

That makes 18! Yet another bot game that I probably should not have won, but here we are. Felt overall like it could have gone horribly wrong at several points but never quite did... That makes my record with France 24 solos out of 52 games for a win rate of 46.15%, two wins shy of 50% (although I'd have to win 4 more in a row to get to 50%).
Well done! You almost lost there in 1920 ... both seasons you correctly guessed to support Germany moving NWY-->StP, otherwise StP was Italy's 18th center. Definitely from 1912 onward, you relied heavily on your opponents' being the bots, and knowing their tendencies. A human Italy surely would have (1) varied its moves in the Med and (2) moved its armies north much more quickly, especially after Germany disbanded Ukraine. But hey, the bots play the way the bots play, and you took advantage. That's just good diplomacy, knowing your opponents!

DougJoe
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Location: Alto, MI, USA
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#298 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:53 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:00 pm
Well done! You almost lost there in 1920 ... both seasons you correctly guessed to support Germany moving NWY-->StP, otherwise StP was Italy's 18th center. Definitely from 1912 onward, you relied heavily on your opponents' being the bots, and knowing their tendencies. A human Italy surely would have (1) varied its moves in the Med and (2) moved its armies north much more quickly, especially after Germany disbanded Ukraine. But hey, the bots play the way the bots play, and you took advantage. That's just good diplomacy, knowing your opponents!
Yeah, and a human would have taken Moscow back, too. There is sort of a "get a feeling" for the bots as the game goes on - my predictions were not 100% accurate, but good enough I guess.

I started my Austria game: https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=441198 - I've had 3 solos In a row so I'm probably due to get crushed...

Trigfea63
Posts: 291
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#299 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:32 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 9:53 pm
I started my Austria game: https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=441198 - I've had 3 solos In a row so I'm probably due to get crushed...
You're off to a good start, too. Italy's going after France, not you. Or so it seems. Maybe 4 in a row?? :-D
DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 2:12 am
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:17 am
ANK-->CON looks pretty good
EAS-->ION? With support?
Support-hold Greece again?
Support the Russian A RUM-->SER?
Personally, I would *not* help Russia into Serbia - it feel it blocks off Turkey's expansion too much and Serbia is the tactical key to that area of the map. When I'm working with Russia-bot, I prefer to get Tri/Ser/Gre and have him in Rum/Bud/Vie. You won't get into Trieste if you let Russia-bot have Serbia, and getting an army in Tri is great for punching Italy. The bots don't get too angry with not making progress too quickly so I think you have at least a few turns to play with before Russia changes his strategy.

Ank-Con is good. If you want to be extra aggressive, you could use EMS to tap ION and use AEG/Bul to try for Greece yourself. Otherwise, I don't see any reason not to go EMS->ION supported by AEG. If you get in, that sets you up really well to try for Greece in the Autumn.
I hear you on not supporting Russia into Serbia. You've convinced me. When I've played Turkey in human games, I've often allied with Russia. And I view it as a bad sign when Russia goes after Serbia or Trieste. Especially when Russia is already well ahead of Turkey in SC-count. Turkey pushing the fleets out to the Med in that scenario is just asking to be stabbed by Russia. I agree, the right configuration for R-T is Russia in RUM-BUD-VIE and Turkey in BUL-SER-TRI.

I have tentatively entered EAS-->ION supported by AEG, BUL support-hold GRE, and ANK-->CON for Spr '05. But I'm now thinking your suggested move of EAS-->ION to cut support, and attack Greece myself with 2 units is better. It's an Autumn move, so getting another SC would be useful. Looking at Italy's likely moves, what is he doing in TYS? Going after France? With 1 fleet? Not likely. My hunch is, TYS will support-hold ION, and ION will again support ALB-->GRE. If I'm right, the attack on ION would fail, but the attack on Greece would succeed. I also think I want the Aegean fleet to take Greece, supported by Bulgaria. I can then build a third fleet, and in the Spring defend Greece from Bulgaria and move the new fleet to Aegean. That would give me three fleets on Ionian, putting a lot of pressure on Italy. We'll see if that all pans out, but that's how I'm gonna play it for Spr '05 at least:

ANK-->CON
AEG-->GRE supported by BUL
EAS-->ION

Here goes (and commentary on the results later):

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Trigfea63
Posts: 291
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#300 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:08 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:32 am
I have tentatively entered EAS-->ION supported by AEG, BUL support-hold GRE, and ANK-->CON for Spr '05. But I'm now thinking your suggested move of EAS-->ION to cut support, and attack Greece myself with 2 units is better. It's an Autumn move, so getting another SC would be useful. Looking at Italy's likely moves, what is he doing in TYS? Going after France? With 1 fleet? Not likely. My hunch is, TYS will support-hold ION, and ION will again support ALB-->GRE. If I'm right, the attack on ION would fail, but the attack on Greece would succeed. I also think I want the Aegean fleet to take Greece, supported by Bulgaria. I can then build a third fleet, and in the Spring defend Greece from Bulgaria and move the new fleet to Aegean. That would give me three fleets on Ionian, putting a lot of pressure on Italy. We'll see if that all pans out, but that's how I'm gonna play it for Spr '05 at least:

ANK-->CON
AEG-->GRE supported by BUL
EAS-->ION

Here goes (and commentary on the results later):

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
Just as bot-brains sometimes get confused, so too do human brains. In my analysis of the last moves, I mention twice that these are the **Spr '05** moves. And yet, the analysis is based in part on this being **an Autumn move.** Oh well. I don't know if I would have done anything different. At this point it doesn't matter.

The Spr '05 moves worked out pretty well, despite the hiccup. Italy moved exactly as I predicted, and my attack on Greece succeeded. I'm slightly exposed with Aegean open and no build before the next Diplomacy round. More on that later.

The Spr '05 moves also saw some noteworthy developments outside of my immediate sphere. Closest to home, bot-Italy's army Trieste switched from support-holding Austria in Vienna, to support-holding Russia in Budapest. Tactically, the change may be inconsequential: Italy's support wasn't helping Austria much, and it won't help Russia much either. However, Austria's Vienna army could perhaps use Italy's support this Autumn. More on that later. Also, as Turkey, with Austria down to 2 units, and with my "alliance" with Russia reduced to basically leaving each other alone, I'm very wary of an I/R forming. Do I need to compete for bot-Russia's affections?

Speaking of Russia, the R-G war continued full force, with some interesting twists. Russia captured Denmark and can't be kicked out in Autumn. At the same time, Germany sent two armies east and has an assured capture of Warsaw. So even-steven. Except maybe for Sweden, currently owned by Russia occupied by a Russian army. Last turn, England and Germany each ordered to Sweden, without support. If they can get their act together and one supports the other, *AND* if Germany taps Denmark from Kiel, Russia will lose Sweden, down one. Probably it's less than 50% likely that bot-Germany and bot-England will make all those moves.

If the Russian bot-brain is smart enough, it might figure out to concede Warsaw and order GAL-->VIE supported by BUD. Austria has been relentlessly attacking Budapest from Vienna, supported by Serbia, so this combination would probably work for Russia. Assuming bot-Italy doesn't switch his alliance yet again. So, in all likelihood, Germany will remain at 6 units, and Russia will remain at 6 or maybe gain 1 if he can capture Vienna. It's best for me if those two remain roughly even. Having to deal with Germany keeps several Russian units occupied, and makes it pretty unlikely Russia will seriously consider attacking me. (Do bots "seriously consider" strategies?) On the other hand, I certainly don't want Germany overrunning Russia. Then I'd have to deal with a powerful Germany to the north. If it begins to look like Germany is gaining the upper hand, then maybe I do want to support Russia's Rumania army into Serbia. But not now. (Or maybe I want to get myself in position to scoop up Russian-controlled centers when he's forced to remove units.)

In the West, England captured Brest, destroying the French fleet there in the process. He can hold it in Autumn and probably will. England also has a clear shot at Portugal, and undoubtedly will capture it from MAO. But, the French fleet in NAO will capture Liverpool. So overall, it seems England will be +1, and France -1. I don't think that has a big impact on my strategy. Maybe it's less likely anyone will threaten Italy from the West in the next 2 game-years.

Thoughts for Autumn '05: BUL support-hold GRE, obviously. Probably EAS-->AEG just in case Italy gets any ideas. And perhaps CON-->SMY, in case Italy orders ION-->EAS (unlikely), but also to be in position for an attack on Russia. The fleet build would then be in CON. Would bot-Russia view the move to Smyrna together with the build in CON as hostile? A strong human player would be suspicious.

An alternative could be EAS-->ION supported by GRE. The thing is, I doubt it will work. It seems likely Italy will make the same moves: TYS support-hold ION, and ION support ALB-->GRE. If it did work, I think I like the outcome. Yes, Italy could forward-retreat into Aegean. That's not great, but I think I'd trade Aegean for Ionian at this point. I could easily recapture Aegean in Spring '06, and I could retreat to a lot of nasty places if Italy kicked me out of Ionian. Still, it's a bit pointless to hammer the Ionian if I have a very low chance of success. It will just train Italy to always defend the Ionian.

Here's another idea, more of a longshot: BUL-->SER, hoping for Russian support. Russia was trying to get me to do that for several turns a couple of game years ago. I could try EAS-->ION, hoping to cut support, and BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, hoping for Russian support. That's a lot of hoping. Probably not worth the risk of losing Greece. Probably I need to at least secure Greece first, with a fleet in the Aegean.

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