Gobsmack - A Germany gunboat journal

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Amwidkle
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Gobsmack - A Germany gunboat journal

#1 Post by Amwidkle » Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:13 pm

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=387345

Gobsmack – Gunboat journal
By: Amwidkle (playing as Germany)


Pre-Game

This is a 275 D-point-bet gunboat game played on webDiplomacy. Settings: anonymous players, hidden draw votes, and Draw-Size Scoring. I just finished a similar gunboat with identical settings and 285 (D) point starting bet, titled “Marrakesh.” https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?game ... #gamePanel

In Diplomacy games (either gunboat or press) of a high caliber, you have to think five steps ahead. To not only where your next SC is coming from, but how the board position will look after you claim it. Whether you’ll be able *actually keep and hold your territory* from your rivals. Whether you’ll have a place in the alliance structures that are likely to exist in the future. Hence, I am journaling this game in order to slow down focus my analytical skills.

Spring 1901

Country assignments are in. I draw Germany – I am pleased. I think Germany is a joy to play, in either gunboat or press – though I tend to think Germany’s chances are a tad better in press.

In gunboat, Germany is a direct competitor of France, who starts with two Iberian neutrals safely tucked away. I consider myself a defense-oriented player and so I envy France. France’s defensive position is tactically superior to Germany’s, and frankly, superior to any other nation. So for me to have a chance of thriving in this game, I will have to form superior alliances to counter France, hoping others appreciate the dangers of a French steamroller.

Though it seems fruitless to expend a lot of resources locking horns with France in the Bur/Bel region, I see it all the time, especially in gunboat. There’s a reason for that. France and Germany are rivals in the West for the same centers. The wariness of their border doesn’t disappear even if/when England is defeated. Quite the opposite: removing the Englishman only exacerbates the initial F/G trust problem by extending the F/G border along an even longer front. Now instead of a mere Bur/Bel bottleneck, the border continues to the English Channel and the British Isles. The F/G alliance can work beautifully in press games – I’m quite a fan of it actually – but it requires a level of trust and coordination that is practically impossible to come by in gunboat. The idea that France would simply pivot south to face Italy, and leave me to my own devices, even if we were to team up to destroy England seems fanciful. Much more likely, it will come down to a fight to the death in any event.

As I have judged that conflict with France is all but inevitable, my thinking from the start must be geared toward securing the best possible advantage against France early on.

I generally see France moving an army to Bur in S01, occasionally with support. France’s move to Bur is 100% sound defensively, and gunboat places a premium on defense, especially in early rounds. Therefore, ordering A (Mun) – Bur right off the bat seems to me to be a fruitless gesture, only helpful in order to signal my anti-French intent to others. Though France is my object, giving away my intentions right away seems a high price to pay to ruin a relationship with a powerful neighbor. If and when I move on France, I will want to maintain some element of surprise.

Germany’s main alternative to ordering A (Mun) – Bur in S01 is moving A (Mun) – Ruh. The Ruhr move, too, while standard in press, seems less promising in this gunboat game, given the likelihood that Bur will be occupied by a French army in F01. France’s A (Bur) would directly threaten Mun and make a retreat to Mun in F01 very tempting. While tactically sound, retreating from Ruh to Mun would be *diplomatically* weak. In gunboat especially, where other players’ assessment of your credibility can only be determined by your moves, it seems best not to be humiliated by harassment and forced to make about-face retreats early on, if it can be avoided.

Other alternatives: Ordering A (Mun) – Tyr is a defensive measure, and a possibility. However, I see the Italian attack through Tyr infrequently these days, even less so in gunboat. Again, ordering to Tyr in S01 only to retreat to Mun in F01 seems a waste, and will likely upset the two other central powers with whom I ought to be fast friends. Though an early Austrian demise would not necessarily be good for Germany, there’s little to be done about it if Italy wills it. One lone German army is unlikely to salvage a compromised Austria, and in gunboat especially, it would likely be viewed by Austria as an invader rather than a rescuer. Germany is interested in the Austrian sphere, to be sure, but also has more immediate concerns.

Other options for A (Mun): Ordering Munich to Bohemia or Silesia in S01 is practically suicidal, destroying your relationship with a Russian neighbor whom you should not be disturbing this early on. Even more critically, such wild and unorthodox Eastern play suggests to your Western rivals that you don’t really understand how to play Germany. As I posited earlier, in gunboat, your moves are your credibility. Speculative German attacks in Central Europe seem more likely than anything else to bring about a fatal E/F steamroller.

I decide, therefore, to order Munich to hold. I believe openings with “hold” moves are overlooked. Far from passivity, I find that holding helps convey stolidity and confidence. A hold move suggests a player not too ambitious, aware of his country’s strengths and weaknesses, open to diplomacy, and willing to play defensive when called for. Prudent commanders of countries that seem like tough nuts to crack will usually be left alone, especially in gunboat.

F (Kie) – I agree with many German opening theory commenters that the starting German fleet, F (Kie), generally belongs in Denmark. An army in Denmark has little flexibility, few retreat paths, and doesn’t even reassure Russia much at all, since Russia’s neutral SC Sweden is one of only two spaces a Denmark army may move to. That is usually what I see German armies in Denmark doing – harassing Russia’s (F) Swe, even fruitlessly. Therefore I shall order F (Kie) – Den.

The easiest decision of all is A (Ber) – Kie, a practical necessity to secure Holland. As mentioned above, I find the speculative “Barbarossa” attack and its variants that send the Berlin army east are not for serious play. Russia’s Warsaw is usually easily guarded, and then what? It’s a dead-end.

So for my S01 moves, I decide to open F (Kie) – Den, A (Ber) – Kie, A (Mun) HOLD. My moves will aim to secure 2 neutral SCs, offend no one, and maximize my diplomatic flexibility for F01.

S01 Orders

F (Kie) – Den
A (Ber) – Kie
A (Mun) hold

Fall 1901

I see generally standard moves from everyone, no major surprises.
As I predicted, France has ordered A (Mar) – Bur, and has also sent A (Par) – Pic, placing two units on Belgium. France’s fleet moved F (Bre) – MAO.

England, too, stayed out of the English Channel, opting instead for a northern opening: F (Lon)-NTH/F (Edi)-NWS, with A (Lvp) – Yor.

The lack of immediate Channel conflict is not ideal, but other developments around the board are favorable to me. Russia and Austria bounced each other in Gal, and Russia and Turkey bounced each other in BLA. (Russia’s army went A (Mos) – Ukr.) All players in the East appear to be tactically competent, and no strong alliances appear to be forming yet among the eastern powers, though I/A is looking possible.

Perhaps most favorably to me, Italy opened A (Ven) – Pie, making France’s position awkward. Italy also sent Austria a strong signal of peace by moving F (Nap) to ION, A (Rom) to Apu, leaving Ven ungarrisoned. It appears Italy intends to play as a strong Central power, moving forcefully against the corner powers via Pie (against France) and the Lepanto attack (against Turkey).

How shall I play now?

A (Mun): Italy’s surprise move to Pie makes me slightly wish I had ordered A (Mun) – Ruhr after all, since the threat to Mun would be greatly reduced as France likely will need to retreat to cover Mar. This would have given a German (A) Ruhr the ability to contest Bel.

However, I’m still happy with the placement of A (Mun). My key options for that piece in F01 are: (1) To hold again; (2) to attack Bur in the hopes of sneaking in (as France likely retreats A (Bur) south to cover Mar from Italy’s A (Pie)), or (3) To order A (Mun) – Ruh in F01, a sort of splitting the difference, with the clear aim of taking Bel from its occupant (likely France), while avoiding the catastrophic rupture in Franco-German relations that a German A (Bur) would portend.

In the end, after much thought, I order A (Mun)-Bur. This move in F01 will likely succeed, unlike an S01 gambit, and signal to Italy that his move to Pie was appreciated.

A (Kie): It’s not even a question – A (Kie) will claim Hol. Any other move would be grossly inferior and make myself look like a juicy target.

F (Den): What to do with F (Den)? To bounce or not to bounce Russia? Russia has played a standard opening, bouncing Austria in Gal and Turkey in BLA and sending A (Mos) south to Ukr. His southern neighbors likewise have opened predictably. It looks as though Russia will face stiff competition in the Balkans, no easy victories. This suggests there’s no harm in letting Russia into Sweden to curry favor with my largest neighbor.

The advantage to bouncing Russia would be an improvement in relations with the English, who will surely appreciate the extra breathing room in Nor. But what has England done for me to compel me to upset the Russian bear? At this point, not much. England avoided the English Channel. If he is serious about trying to gain France as his ally ally, he may even try to screw with me with a convoy to Hol, which would deprive me a build, and leave Kie occupied and unavailable for a fleet build. Bad news.

Bouncing Russia can lead to an Eastern front conflict, escalating into a full-blown war, that Germany really doesn’t need early on. It seems too risky. So, I order F (Den) to hold.

In addition to simply holding, the other possibilities would be to use F (Den) to signal a move to a neighbor. I could support Russia’s move F (BOT) - Swe, or on the other hand, issue a support-hold order to England’s NTH. However, I find that either of these options would likely upset the non-supported neighbor more than it would reassure the target of support. Once I playued England in a gunboat game where Germany supported Russia’s move to Swe, and even though it was no different in practical terms than holding, the grovelingly pro-Russian signaling irked me. Similarly, England might wonder why I might choose to pointlessly support-hold NTH rather than bounce Russia out of Sweden. A move like this -- seemingly pro-England, while effectively pro-Russian -- seems a bit too fancy for my tastes, more likely to make myself seem duplicitous. So, I will avoid signaling and I will instead simply hold F (Den), thereby communicating my true feelings, which at this point are perfectly neutral.

Prior to deciding, I went back and forth between two different movesets – F (Den) – Swe and A (Mun) – Bur, vs. holding both units – several times. Either moveset signals a drastically different game.

Theoretically, I would like to leave both Russia and France alone and make a play for NTH - the strongest territory in the game - in ’02. However, this would be a risky strategy as a 5 SC power, which is what I would be without Bel or Swe. Going all-out against England and wedging myself in-between a France and Russia both stronger than myself seems a hard way to go, especially in gunboat. So, I’m ruling out attacking England off the bat, without picking up at least 6 SCs from the continent.

On the other hand, going all-in for an English alliance with attacks on *both* Russia and France seems unwise. Again, England hasn’t done enough yet to earn it, and those hostile anti-F/R moves, paired with a surprise bounce by him in Holland, would completely wreck my tactical and diplomatic position.
So in the end, I choose a compromise between the two move-sets I was strongly considering. I hold F (Den), hedging my bets with Russia in the north, and against France, take the plunge into Bur. These moves will upset only one neighbor – and a neighbor who is already being attacked by Italy in the south. A compromise between boldness and safety.

F01 Orders

F (Den) HOLD
A (Kie) – Hol
A (Mun) – Bur

Winter 1901

I took Holland (whew!) – and made it into Burgundy! Meanwhile, Italy supported Bur – Mar. Clever, even though it has no practical effect, it signals Italy is both engaged against the French and predicting his moves. Italy has France’s number!

Russia took Sweden – no surprises there. England bounced France in Bel, which was a surprise, and very favorable to me. If France had supported England to Bel, he could have both made a fast ally to his north and helped stonewall my incoming attack. Very glad they did not work that out.

I am in close to an ideal position for Germany at the end of 1901. France’s opening has gone very poorly for him – and yet, odds are still good that he will hold all his home SCs next year and pick up Spain anyway for another build. This is the power of France – even a concerted attack by two neighbors can equal mere harassment in the face of a competent defense. I/G are keenly feeling England’s absence in the Channel.

In the south, Austria has two builds, and Italy and Turkey both have one. Expected.

As for me, I have two builds. Building A (Mun) is obvious, strong, and expected. Building in Ber is unfruitful and overly anti-Russia, so I will also plonk down either a fleet or an army in Kie. An army in Kie would potentially help cement an alliance with England, following up on his bounce of France in Bel. However, England’s convoy to Bel may have just as easily been a self-interested play rather than a genuine move against France, given the lack of Channel conflict so far. Do I reward England for playing his best interest, and merely some greed gone wrong? I don’t think so.

Building, F (Kie) will give me more flexibility, the ability to attack England if I need to, and will hearten Russia, especially if he builds F (St. P) (nc). Of course F (Kie) also gives me the ability to clip Swe from Russia (via BAL) next year if I need to!

I decide to build a fleet in Kie.

Winter 1901 Builds

A (Mun)
F (Kie)
5

Amwidkle
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Re: Gobsmack - A Germany gunboat journal

#2 Post by Amwidkle » Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:52 pm

LINK TO REFERENCED GAME

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=387345

^There's the link again to the game, for ease of reference.

Alright, heading into 1902. Are you ready? *cracks knuckles* This was a year of tremendous indecision for me, so get ready for a slog. :)

Spring 1902

England built F (Edi), suggesting a continuation of his northern strategy. I would have preferred to see him build F (Lon) or even F (Lvp) of course, but with Russia in Swe, Nor is under threat. Russia built F St. P (nc), a gutsy move which essentially commits him to warfare with England. France built A (Par), Italy built F (Nap), and Turkey built F (Smy), all as expected.

Who are my allies and enemies? After allowing him passage to Sweden, I am Russia’s best friend at this point. I am France’s worst enemy, unless he’s even more irked by Italy’s presence in Pie which encouraged my move to Bur. Italy seems keen on seeing me prosper at France’s expense, which is good. Austria is playing well, allied with Italy, and won’t be coming after me for a long time, if ever. Overall, I am in a good position – two builds, yet with decent relations with all my neighbors except France and flexibility to choose my path forward. This year, however, I will not be able to avoid certain commitments.

It is theoretically possible for me to aim for capturing *both* Swe and Bel this year. That would put me on 7 SCs – however, it would also make me a big target. I’d have jettisoned my Russian ally and probably also miffed England by taking Bel, which he may have wanted for himself. I think it is better to play for just one build this year.

Although England took Nor with a fleet, which can be seen as less aggressive toward Russia than taking with an army, Russia and England are not about to play nice with each other in Scandinavia. War over Nor is inevitable, and both of them will be looking for my help. I could either pick a side or stay neutral and focus exclusively on France.

Allying England is a seemingly more natural choice. We could push together against both France and Russia, and if I choose an alliance with England, I can quickly pick up Swe for myself. However, England’s lack of interest in attacking France is concerning to me. What if I stab Russia only to have E/F steamroller me? Not good.

Allying Russia comes with the downside that he cannot help me directly against France. However, Russia would provide me a stonewall in the north against E/F. With the addition of third northern Russian and German fleets, we’d have plenty of firepower to continue the assault into the British Isles. Allying Russia would also keep Russia as a strong counterweight to a strong mid-game Austria, which looks likely given the I/A Lepanto shaping up against Turkey and implicitly Russia.

Italy is expectedly mostly focused on the east for now, but his A (Pie) signals anti-French intent. If and when I/A together wrap up Turkey, Italy will be able to bring more force to bear against France’s south. I’m counting on Italy as my ace in the hole that can tip the scales in R/G’s favor against E/F.
In my previous high-bet gunboat game, I allied with England as France, only to have the former gobble me up as soon as we were done with Germany. Although E/G could prosper in the short-to-medium term, I’d be the more vulnerable partner to a stab in the long run. I’m keen to avoid the same mistake this time.

Russia, on the other hand, has many fronts and looks set to be locking horns with Austria in the south for a long time. So, I will ally with Russia. This will almost certainly produce an E/F, but a weak one, since they’ll be out of Nor and Bel. A 3-center England and 5-center France can still put up a stiff fight, but will likely fall in time, especially once Italy comes around to France’s south. The gamble from my perspective would be a stab by Russia, but he would be unlikely to do that, throwing away his best ally only to run face-first into an empowered E/F. If Russia stabs, I can certainly have the threat to throw SCs to E/F.

So, I will play for Belgium as my next SC, with a medium-range plan of working with Russia to kick England out of Nor and NTH.

Proposed S02 Orders:
F (Den) – SKA
F (Kie) – Den
A (Mun) – Bur
A (Bur) – Pic
A (Hol) – Bel

England’s build of F (Edi) suggests he may try for a convoy to Bel again in S02, hoping for support from either me or France, leaving Nor to be taken by Russia in Spring, and then re-taken by England with a force of 3 in Fall (after F (Edi) – NWS)). My move of A (Bur) – Pic will cut any support to Bel offered by France, if France realizes he can try to gain an ally by supporting England’s convoy to Bel. It is also possible that France orders A (Par) – Gas, A (Pic) – Par, in which case the move to Pic will succeed, causing France more problems. (Actually, ordering A (Pic) – Bre would be tactically better than ordering A (Pic) – Par, and further reassure England that France has no intention of building fleets – though France may not be wise enough to see that move). I have ordered A (Mun) – Bur to follow up in case of success to Pic.

Since England appears to be giving up on Nor in the Spring, F (Den) – SKA will block an English retreat to SKA, which would be awkward for me, placing Den under threat. This seems more likely than England ordering F (NTH) – HEL, angering me at the very moment he needs to win my help against Russia. If for some reason I change my mind about working with Russia, in Fall, I could use SKA to take Swe (though I probably wouldn’t do this, because Russia’s retreat to BAL would be compromising). Moving to SKA preserves my neutrality in the inevitable Scandinavian war for as long as possible. If England support-holds Nor in Spring, then SKA could still assist Russia’s Fall assault by supporting F (St. P) (nc) to Nor. With Den cutting NTH support as well, Russia would take Nor. It’s also possible Russia instead plays F (St. P) (nc) – BAR, in conjunction with A (Mos) – St. P, though I think it’s more likely Russia sends A (Mos) – Ukr in light of the stiff Austrian competition in Gal.

The only move that would really mess with my moveset is England’s F (NTH) – HEL, paired with F (Edi) – NTH. But I am highly doubtful this will happen, as England would be totally abandoning Nor for a speculative attack on me. I’m similarly ruling out the possibility of a speculative English convoy to Hol, since England didn’t move to Hol last year, he’s still hoping to win me over rather than assault me. I’m hopeful that England is simply enraged about Russia’s F St. P (nc) and isn’t really paying much attention to me yet.

I consider once again allying with England, but the lack of Channel conflict and the build F (Edi) is just too pro-French for my liking. England turning against France after Russia is rolled back is by no means guaranteed. In fact, England would be in a better position to stab me.

Overall, my S02 moves press the attack on France, maintain neutrality with England, play for Bel, and in Scandinavia, reserve myself the option of either taking Swe or assisting Russia to Nor in Fall. If my moves to Pic and Bur both succeed, then there’s a teeny tiny chance I could nab either Par or Bre. I’m excited!

REVISION:
I think longer on the French front. France’s most tactically superior defense, in my opinion, is F (Por) – Spa (sc), A (Par) – Gas, A (Mar) – Gas, and A (Pic) – Bur, cutting any support I might give Italy to A (Pie) -- Mar. If France makes these moves, then it doesn’t really matter what I do in the west – he can block any advance. I view a supported French attach on Bur as unlikely, since I could then “retreat forward” to Gas. So I may as well use this move to signal appreciation to Italy, via A (Bur) s ITALIAN A (Pie) – Mar, and move A (Mun) – Ruh to increase my HOLD on the Low Countries for fall. If A (Pic) instead supports an English convoy to Bel, then at least Italy will take Mar in the south – unless A (Par) moves to Bur! Leaving Gas open however would be a gutsy play. France can often succeed in pushing back an assault using an army in Gas (from which all 3 home SCs may be defended), and I expect that will happen this time.

Revised S02 Orders:
F (Den) – SKA
F (Kie) – Den
A (Mun) – Ruh
A (Bur) s ITALIAN A (Pie) – Mar
A (Hol) – Bel

REVISION 2:
Well, now that I’m playing for the low countries with A (Mun) - Ruh, I think I ought to revise my fleet orders as well. F (Kie) – HEL seems a more natural fit for me, and a platform for claiming NTH in F02, potentially. Now should I order F (Den) – NTH, cutting support to Nor, or simply hold? Probably best to cut support in S02 and ensure Russia takes Nor. If England retreats to SKA, so be it. It is still more of a problem for Russia than for me – I can simply support-hold Den or (if I’m feeling lucky) move F SKA – NTH with Den support regardless. With Russia on my side, the fleet count is already 4 v. 3 in Scandinavia. With additional builds to Russia (Nor) and myself (Bel), that could grow further. Although I might want an army as my next build depending on the war with France– we’ll see.

R/G will essentially have a “Northern Lepanto” alliance against England, the “Wicked Witch of the West.” I’ve never heard it called that, but it’s similar!

Second Revised S02 Orders:
F (Den) – NTH
F (Kie) – HEL
A (Mun) – Ruh
A (Bur) s ITALIAN A (Pie) – Mar
A (Hol) – Bel

REVISION 3:
Well, drats. Having concluded that the attack on France is likely a bust without England’s help, I had better just try to make peace with France and encourage him against England. Italy/Germany’s 1901 moves invited an English build of F (Lon) or F (Lvp), but it never came.

So, I will now play for trying to avoid France building a fourth army from his Spain pickup (which would be strategically horrible for me), and instead coax him to build a fleet. It may not work, with me claiming Bel when France obviously wanted it for himself, but we’ll see. Sorry, Italy – France’s natural defenses are just too much here. I am now sort of wishing I moved to Ruh in F01 rather than Bur, to avoid this rupture in Franco-German relations. But we had to try it to see if England would help, I suppose.

Third Revised S02 Orders:
F (Den) – NTH
F (Kie) – HEL
A (Mun) HOLD
A (Bur) – Bel
A (Hol) support A (Bur) – Bel

REVISION 4:
These revisions are getting silly. But screw it, retreating A (Bur) just seems like a waste. Italy seems like a sharp player, that he might support Bur to Mar, realizing that my own support to ITALIAN (A) Pie - Mar from Bur (if I were to issue it) is likely to be cut. If France makes the moves I described earlier – bouncing himself in Gas, and moving A (Pic) – Bur, and Italy supports (A) Bur – Mar, then the French army in Mar will have no retreat paths and forced to disband.

Ultimately, Italy would receive Mar in any fair division of France, but perhaps he realizes he hasn’t invested enough in his western French attack yet to hold Mar, and so will be willing to loan me Mar instead and support-hold it simply to keep it out of French hands. Another thing – Italy may want to keep A (Pie) in place to keep one eye on Ven, which at the moment is exposed to Austria. Austria stabbing Ven would be pretty crushing actually – I doubt it will happen any time soon, since Italy has so far shown total trust in Austria and is set to be very useful against Turkey, but something to keep an eye on.

Italy and I have one turn to take Mar from France before France’s fleet gets to Spain (sc) to support it. It’s an unlikely attack, but you’ve gotta take risks in Diplomacy sometimes, right? In the event A (Bur)’s attack on Mar fails, then at least I’ll be well-positioned to gain Bel in F02. Hopefully, Italy wasn’t aiming to take Mar himself, thus potentially pissing off an ally I’m going to need. The more I look at it though, the more I think Italy just may support me into Mar – he seems like a total team player and strikes me as someone who fancies himself the captain of the Central Triple.

If E/F work out to convoy A (Yor) – Bel, then my position will suck, however. Oh well.

This just in – I just realized England went into civil disorder last turn and has been taken over by a new player. Unlike the rest of us who placed big bets, this new player will not have invested any points into this game – it could be anyone. The new England took over before the builds in W01 were in. So new England made the decision to build F (Edi). Noted. This doesn’t really affect my assessment. Although, come to think of it (another last-minute change) – I think it might be best to maintain my neutrality in Scandinavia for one turn longer. I really don’t like what an English retreat to SKA would do to my Fall positioning.
I could even support England’s convoy to Bel myself to curry favor with him for one turn longer. Why not? It’s just as likely that he uses F (NTH) to support-hold Nor, and I can always swipe Bel for myself when my stab comes in.

Fourth Revised S02 Orders:
F (Den) – SKA
F (Kie) – Den
A (Mun) - Bur
A (Bur) – Mar
A (Hol) – Bel

REVISION 5:
Getting paranoid and thinking I ought to cover HEL now, since an English fleet there would really crush my position. With the English F (Edi), it’s possible he’s gearing up to take his chances on an anti-German attack, and abandoning Nor, banking on Russia being satisfied with Nor and not coming to my aid thereafter.
So, I’ll make my anti-English intentions clearer to Russia this turn and play a bit more conservatively in the lowlands.

Fifth Revised S02 Orders:
F (Den) – NTH
F (Kie) – HEL
A (Mun) - Bur
A (Bur) – Mar
A (Hol) – Bel

Fall 1902

Fireworks around the board! Italy and I made no progress against France, but nor did we lose any ground. I will pat myself on the back for predicting France’s defensive moveset with 100% accuracy. Italy shouldn’t be miffed at me over not supporting him to Mar, since my moveset (Italy supporting GERMAN A (Bur) – Mar) would have worked, and his (Germany supporting ITALIAN A (Pie) – Mar) wouldn’t have, as my support would have been cut from FRENCH A (Pic). No harm, no foul. Probably Italy just didn’t think about France’s most likely defensive moves for that long. I walked into Bel, which is nice – showing the value of GERMAN A (Bur) in tying France up. England got hit hard by the R/G, losing Nor.

Across the board, we have some interesting developments. Austria took Gal by using Ser to cleverly cutting Russia’s support in Rum for War – Ukr. Turkey tried for Gre and failed, but took AEG, for a better defensive position. Italy paused his Lepanto to convoy A (Tun) – Apu, and moving F (Nap) – TYS. I always wonder about this. If the Italian army sitting in Tun is tactically bad – and it is – I wonder why the convoy considered to be the standard for the Lepanto opening. It’s not as if Turkey is going anywhere fast, typically. In gunboat especially, I feel it’s worth the extra turn to leave the second Italian army on the Italian peninsula in order to keep defenses strong, even if it sits in Apu so as not to bother Austria.

I would say that 6 out of 7 nations are playing well. England’s moves, however, were atrocious. He willingly gave up Nor, moving F (Nor) – BAR and attempting to backfill Nor with a convoy. This backfill was of course blocked by Russia’s supported F St. P (nc) – Nor, and St. P was backfilled by A (Mos) – St. P. ENGLISH F (Edi) moved to NWS. As a result, England has 3 units aiming at Nor for the Fall – but so does Russia! And since Russia now occupies Nor, he now holds the defender’s advantage.

England’s loss of an SC in F02 can be guaranteed with a proper Russian defense, which I expect, since Russia seems competent. This will be the first exchange of an SC in this game thus far. Russia doesn’t even need my help whatsoever in Fall to hold Nor! I will hit NTH anyway with F (Den), to harry England, further cement trust with Russia, and slow down England from retreating from his ridiculous far-northern position – farther north than Russia, almost off the board, practically in the North Pole – to try out some different attack, which is his only option now, unless he wants to throw his remaining units at Nor repeatedly out of spite. As I’d hoped, Russia’s build of F (St. P) (nc) triggered him terribly. We’ll see if he gets over it; or if, as a newcomer who didn’t bet any points on this game anyway, he loses interest in survival and rage-plays from here on out.

Far better for England would have been to simply hold in Nor and pray that I use F (Den) to cut Russia’s support in Swe. Failing that, use the retreat phase to position Nor in SKA, which is an infinitely better place for the fleet than BAR. In F02 England then could have potentially had a 50/50 shot at swiping Den or Hol from me in Fall, abandoning the lost cause of Nor, and potentially getting that all-important A (Yor) to the mainland. Convoying A (Yor) – Bel, or even better, Hol(!), would have been superior. Though my moves as yet had not been hostile to England, which granted me protection.

In Chess, England’s moves in S02 would be notated as a double-question mark blunder: A potentially game-losing catastrophe. There’s still a lot of life left in this game, but England’s fleets are so out of position, the R/G pact so tight, and his theoretical French ally so far from the action, that the loss of NTH and then his homeland in the coming years looks likely.

With no ENGLISH F (SKA), my hold on Den is very safe now. Ironically, I still would be in a good position after England’s far-northern moves if I’d stabbed Russia in Swe instead, but I think I like this better. Had I stabbed Russia, there’s no telling when, if ever, my English “ally” would have assisted me against France. As it stands, he’s in no position to do so. England may be scratching his head wondering why I turned on him. It’s as simple as this: He missed several opportunities to take the ENGLISH CHANNEL and assist in the takedown of France. His Scandinavian dilly-dallying doesn’t help me at all.

Newbie players of Germany in this position would have seen Russia’s (F) Swe dangling as a “free SC” and be unable to resist the temptation. Indeed, a 1902 Swe grab by Germany is what happens more often than not. That’s the mindset of someone who thinks only two moves ahead, to their next build phase, and no farther. It takes thinking 5+ moves ahead to see that offering Swe to Russia (the latter knowing full well that you could force-capture it) in order to cement an alliance with a powerful neighbor, and using Germany’s fleets instead to capture the all-important NTH, are greater strategic prizes.

With Russia’s northern contingent set to grow to 3 and England’s shrinking to 3, remarkably, Russia’s northern half alone will match the entirety of England in strength after Winter 1902. With my 2 fleets and 0 French fleets anywhere near the action, R/G looks set to steamroller the north. Actually, it’s looking like France ought to build that second fleet after all for a better defense, or I may just sail into the ENGLISH CHANNEL myself – we’ll see if he does that, or opts for the fourth army from his 5th SC pickup in Spa.

Russia is in a worse position in the south. Austria has some nice possibilities, including forcing Rum from Russia, if Turkey’s F (BLA) fails to offer support. The evilest move though is probably A (Gal) – Ukr, backfilled by A (Vie) – Gal! An Austrian army in Ukr would menace 4 Russian SCs, including 3 home SCs, which is crippling. If Russia holds Rum, however, then he’ll gain a build from Nor to help cope, and may eventually be able to move A (St. P) back south again. We’ll see if Turkey has it in him to support-hold Russia’s A (Rum) – I haven’t yet seen Turkey move in a way that directly benefits another nation. Though Turkey’s strongly anti-Austria at this point, so they both share an interest.

Italy is a wildcard here. He’s in a good position to hit Turkey, France, or even Austria, if he’s growing uneasy with Austria’s growth potential. I expect Italy to take a long time to think about his next steps, and where he’ll pick up that all-important 5th SC. I would prefer to see him to hit France hard in the South, though vacating ION can be challenging since it’s so important for Italy’s line of defense. If I were Italy, I would actually hit Austria hard, as he locks horns with Turkey and pushes deeper into Russia without yet making any SC gains.

Compared to Spring 1902, I don’t need to think so hard about these moves. I briefly consider helping my best bud Russia out with a gusty punch of A (Mun) – Tyr, to slow down Austria. However, this would be a blunder – overextending my forces and putting me in the crosshairs of yet another 3/4-army nation. Worse come to worse, I can’t be the police of who owns Rum, and frankly, I don’t really care about Russia’s southern half. In fact, the worse Russia does in the south, the more dependent he becomes upon me in the north. That suits me just fine. I just don’t want Austria to totally destroy Russia and then turn on me – Italy and Turkey will have to see to it that doesn’t happen. If they can’t hold the south from the Austrian, then there’s not much I can do about it.

Overall I am in a great position. I’m guaranteed a build and setting up to capture NTH next year, if not sooner. I’d be slightly better off with F (Hel) in Hol, but that’s a minor concern. The only existential threats on the horizon are (1) Russia stabbing me; (2) Austria abruptly pivoting from the Russian front to attack me instead. With E and R locking horns in the north, and R & A locking horns in the south, both possibilities seem quite unlikely. France’s turtling will be annoying, but less of a problem once I gain NTH. And if Russia & Italy stick with me, France will be overpowered in time.

I elect to make a tactical retreat from France’s lines in order to increase my odds of capturing the all-important NTH.

Fall 1902 moves
A (Bur) – Bel
A (Bel) – Hol
A (Mun) – Ruh
F (Den) – NTH
F (HEL) support F (DEN) – NTH

Winter 1902
I have taken NTH. Russia even gave the appropriate support, indicating he’s fully on board with the alliance. England beat a hasty retreat and now his fleets are split down the middle, with an army stranded at home at Yok. Because England moved out of NTH to ENG, finally realizing the North is a loss, my covering Hol wasn’t strictly necessary. I could have pushed the French attack into Pic or even Par! Italy did issue support for A (Bur) – Mar, but it was too late to do any good: Spain (sc) support-held Mar. In the South, Austria did as I predicted and moved into Ukr. Ouch for Russia.

Italy took EMS and is now full-throttle with the Lepanto. A decent choice, although as always, Austria’s faster growth may become an issue for him. Russia picked up a key build from Nor which he will use to build A (Mos), his only vacant supply center.

I will certainly build A (Mun). Although the French attack has failed for now, it’s achieved its more limited objective in stalling France: My grip on Bel is now a fortress, especially with my lock on NTH. Now as long as Russia is with me – and with Austria all the way in Ukr, he has fewer reasons to betray me now than ever – we can grind out the war against England and then onto France. Do I really care if Russia loses Rum and Sev? Not really. Rum could perhaps be captured by Austria, though further gains for him will be difficult. Assuming England destroys F (BAR), Russia’s A (St. P) will have the luxury of moving south for extra defense.

France now faces a dilemma, building a fourth army to solidify the Maginot Line but having virtually nil offensive capabilities, vs. building the second fleet that he may need if England falls to the G/R. England’s move to ENG was born of desperation rather than hostility and probably won’t factor into France’s decision. It’s an E/F – but as I predicted earlier, a weak E/F. I really hope Russia assists me rather than houseboating in Scandinavia. With the problems he’s facing in the south, I wouldn’t mind giving him Edi and perhaps even Lvp.

Russia is currently the largest power on 7 SCs, and I’m in second place on 6. We have a rock-solid friendship going forward - not bad. Both our odds of surviving this game are excellent.

I could have been in an even better position with better guesswork, but if you asked any Germany at the start of the game if they’d fancy being on 6 SCs and in both Bel and NTH at the end of 1902, they’d take that deal!

Winter 1902 Builds
A (Mun)
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Re: Gobsmack - A Germany gunboat journal

#3 Post by Amwidkle » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:32 pm

LINK TO REFERENCED GAME:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=387345

1903 & 1904

Spring 1903
Man, 1902 was a slog. Fortunately for you and I both, I happen to be pressed for time, so these next few entries will be brief. :)

England’s position is horrendous for offense, but not so bad for defense at the moment. He can retreat his fleets to his east coast (Edi, Lon), and combined with his Yor army he can block any convoy. France built a fleet, which may be for additional defense against me, or could signal annoyance at England’s (F) ENG. I decide to play for peace with France and to push A (Mun) – Tyr to assist Russia against the Austrian invasion.

I previously judged that intervening in Austria would be a “blunder” – however, with the West stalled and at a potential turning point for relations between me and France, by attacking Austria I can try to curry additional favor with Russia and entice him to push his Scandinavian fleets into England.

GERMAN A (Tyr) will annoy Italy, likely, but his (A) Pie isn’t doing me much good anymore, and Italy’s options for retaliation are limited.

As an additional precaution, I will move F (HEL) – Hol, to put it in a better position to block any French army incursions while I’m intervening in Austria.

Spring 1903 Orders
A (Mun) – Tyr
A (Ruh) – Mun
A (Bel) support-hold FRENCH A (Bur)
A (Hol) – Ruh
F (HEL) – Hol
F (NTH) support FRENCH F (Bre) – ENG

Fall 1903
As expected, England turtled up on his east coast. France moved F (Bre) – Pic, suggesting more anti-German than anti-England intent, unfortunately. Italy attacked FRENCH (A) Mar to no effect. In the East, Austria took Rum, but Russia successfully extracted A (Rum) to Gal, forcing Austria to retreat AUSTRIAN A (Gal) – Vie. Turkey took Gre, a bit of a surprise. Italy convoyed A (Apu) – Syr, as expected in the Lepanto.

I will continue to turtle in the West, encourage Russia, and press the attack on Austria. A (Mun) – Boh will leave Mun exposed to a possible French attack, but this seems unlikely.

Fall 1903 Orders
A (Tyr) – Vie
A (Mun) – Boh
A (Ruh) support-hold A (Bel)
F (Hol) support-hold F (NTH)
F (NTH) support RUSSIAN F (Nor) – NWS

Winter 1903
A fairly static Fall. No one’s attacks succeeded last round. France took ENG with F (Pic) and backfilled with an army to Pic. The only provinces to change hands this year are Gre (to Turkey) and Rum (to Austria).

Spring 1904
Turkey builds A (Ank) to turtle against the Lepanto. Russia destroys A (Liv), to my relief. Russia is becoming more dependent on me, which is good.
I have a feeling my overtures to France are not being returned – but I still want to press the attack on Austria, which is giving my ally Russia lots of breathing room to help me in the Northern/Western sphere against E/F. I will beat a tactical retreat from Bel in order to cover my more important home SCs, like Mun, and see if France is willing to leave Bel alone. Even if France doesn’t, my defenses are sound, and I hope to gain Vie as an SC this year to compensate.

Spring 1904 Orders
A (Bel) – Ruh
A (Ruh) – Mun
F (Hol) support-hold F (NTH)
F (NTH) support RUSSIAN F (NWG) – Edi
A (Tyr) – Vie
A (Boh) support A (Tyr) – Vie

Fall 1904
France took Bel with double-support, which is disappointing but not surprising. My attack on Vie was a failure, but in the East, Russia regained Rum – thanks in part to Austria being distracted by my harassment. Italy took Tyr with Austrian support from Vie – a pretty nice combo they worked out, forcing GERMAN A (Tyr) to retreat. However, my retreat path is quite favorable – I retreat forward to Pie! This will cause both Italy and France some big tactical headaches this season.

Now for a moment of truth re: my relationship with Russia. I shall take the plunge and order A (Boh) – Vie, counting on both Russian support AND RUSSIAN (A) Rum cutting Austria’s support from AUTRIAN (A) Bud. Russia may take this gamble, since Rum can still be defended by RUSSIAN A (Ukr) – Rum supported by RUSSIAN F (Sev).

A (Mun) will also take a plunge of its own by attacking Bur with support from A (Ruh). This leaves Mun open once again, to the south this time to a possible Italian attack. GERMAN A (Pie) will move to Mar, since an attack on Ven doesn’t seem likely to succeed, and I don’t really want to go any farther south into Tus since my primary target is still France.

Fall 1904 Orders
A (Pie) – Mar
A (Boh) – Vie
A (Mun) – Bur
A (Ruh) support A (Mun) – Bur
F (Hol) – Bel
F (NTH) support RUSSIAN F (NWS) – Edi

Winter 1904
Huzzah! My attacks on Vie and Bur both succeeded. Russia both supported me and held Rum with the moves I described. Russia also took Edi with support from both RUSSIAN F (Cly) and GERMAN F (NTH). France pushed F (NAO) – NWS, which will annoy Russia greatly and all but ensure Russia builds F St. P (nc), which is very favorable to me. Russia has a second build, which I very much hope will be A (Mos) rather than A (War). If Russia builds A (War) then we’re off to the races! However, I’ve taken some risks for Russia and have been his stalwart ally all game, both in Scandinavia and, perhaps even more critically for him, in Austria. My hope is that the growing Russian has my back for the rest of the game – because lord knows I’ve been quite rude to the rest of my neighbors, I need him!

France rejected my overtures and will now be my diehard rival for the rest of the game, I suspect. England is flailing – he attacked ENG, apparently not realizing that France’s F (MAO) – NAO was friendly to him. With France’s support from ENG cut, I could have actually retaken Bel this year! C’est la vie.
Austria once again played cleverly, supporting ITALIAN A (Tyr) – Ven, which opens up a retreat path for AUSTRIAN (A) Vie – Tyr. If Austria can retreat, then he can destroy F (Tri), which is doing him little good at the moment, as a bit of retaliation against me. Drats! I should have ordered A (Pie) – Tyr, rather than attacking Mar, to cut off that possibility.

This will complicate my tactics for next year, creating a guessing-game around Mun, and makes my recapture of Bel less than certain. However, France too has problems with my GERMAN A (Bur). He’ll have to retreat FRENCH A (Bur) – Gas and build A (Mar) to guarantee retaining his home SCs next year, which splits his southern and northern forces. Meanwhile, FRENCH F (NWS) seems horribly out of place, though I suppose he could attempt to gain NTH next year...
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Re: Gobsmack - A Germany gunboat journal

#4 Post by Amwidkle » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:49 pm

LINK TO REFERENCED GAME:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=387345

1905 & 1906

Spring 1905
As I suspected, Austria maintained AUTRIAN A (Tyr) and disbanded F (Tri). This is awkward, but by no means fatal to my position. Russia built F (St. P) (nc) and A (Mos), which is very favorable, and a strong signal of a continued willingness to ally with me. Nothing around the board has changed diplomatically. My moves this turn are pretty straightforward: I want to prioritize guarding Mun and take a shot at Belgium. I expect I’ll lose NTH, but at least I hope to claim Bel in return.

Spring 1905 Orders
A (Bur) – Mun
F (NTH) support A (Ruh) – Bel
F (Hol) support A (Ruh) – Bel
A (Ruh) – Bel
A (Pie) – Tyr
A (Vie) support A (Pie) – Tyr

Fall 1905
In the South/East: Italy captured Gre from Turkey, which will bottle the latter up pretty seriously. Italy will gain a build, while Turkey is forced to destroy his last army that had made it west of the Con bottleneck. However, Italy’s Austrian ally is simultaneously being dismantled – Russia took Bud, and rather than use AUSTRIAN A (Tyr) to try for Mun, Austria beat a retreat to Tri. That is not what I was suspecting at all – I thought Austria would at least try for some revenge upon me. Now AUSTRIAN (A) Bud has no retreat paths and is forced to disband, which leaves Austria on 2 units with no hope of recapturing anything. I can even try for Tri this turn, and bank on the appropriate Russian supports and cuts come in again. It has happened before!

Long-term, Italy and Turkey seem both irreconcilably at war, and stalemated. The cards are in Russia’s hands – will Russia pivot toward making Italy his ally? Will Russia even try for Ser, since Turkish armies are nowhere in sight? This Russia seems a pretty honest ally so far – even if he does claim Ser, my sense is that he won’t stab Turkey. He might even give Ser back to Turkey to help the latter reclaim ground against Italy. If that’s how the East resolves then I predict a 3WD (G/R/T) or 4WD (G/R/T/F).

In the West – Yep, France took NTH. Looks like I was wrong about FRENCH F (NWS) being out of place! He sailed around the entire island just to claim NTH. And it wasn’t a bad move, either. That’s how valuable that sea space is! I retreat to Den, my best option.

But what’s this? It appears France blundered by retreating A (Bel) to *Bur* rather than Pic! Now, If I guess correctly, I can hold Bel this round. Either that or France is double-bluffing me again and intends to gambit (and eventually reclaim) Bel in order to advance his lines and claim strategic territory in Ruh. That would be rather brilliant. Well! It’s a lively game on the western front!
This is a tactical position that is worth some deeper analysis… See what France’s options are in attempting to reclaim Bel vs. sacrificing it for positional gains, vs. Germany’s options keeping Bel or ceding it back for positional gains.

In the end, I choose these moves, which potentially sacrifice Bel, but make a play for regaining NTH while cutting off an awkward forward-retreat to HEL:

Fall 1905 Orders
F (Den) – NTH
F (Hol) – HEL
A (Bel) – Hol
A (Mun) – Ruh
A (Tyr) support A (Vie) – Tri
A (Vie) – Tri

Winter 1905
I gained Tri! Russia pulled through and supported the correct army to Tri, *and* cut support from AUSTRIAN (A) Ser, overpowering the support-hold offered by ITALIAN A (Ven). In the West, I regain NTH which was totally vacated by France, who unexpectedly stabbed England in Lon. This means my caution in covering HEL was misplaced, and I simply walked my army right out of Bel, which wasn’t even attacked. France played that well! Even better would have been if France had swiped Mun, which I left open on a Fall turn yet again for better positioning in Ruh. I will promptly fill my lines with a build of A (Mun). Just like when I failed to walk right into Par, France must be kicking himself!

Spring 1906
Russia built F (St. P) (nc) once again, from his gain of Bud. I anticipate he will try to convoy RUSSIAN A (Nor) to the British Isles to knock out England’s final home SC of Lvp. France built F (Bre) from his gain of Lon, which now gives him 3 fleets to work with. Italy built A (Rom), expectedly, since that is now the only way he can guarantee holding Ven from me!

Another year where nothing has changed diplomatically. I will play relatively conservatively, holding NTHl and trying for Bel. I thought for a long time about whether I should make a play for Ser, since Russia’s development is now outpacing mine. In the end I decided to support Russia’s more logical claim to Ser since he has been such a dependable ally and I just might need his support in Tri from Italian retribution.

Spring 1906 Orders
F (NTH) support A (Ruh) – Bel
F (HEL) support-hold F (NTH)
A (Hol) support A (Ruh) – Bel
A (Ruh) – Bel
A (Mun) – Ruh
A (Tyr) – Mun
A (Tri) support RUSSIAN A (Bud) – Ser

Fall 1906
France cut my support from NTH, placing his Bur army in Bel and backfilling it with FRENCH A (Par). France now holds an impressive Maginot Line from Lon to Mar. Making matters worse, Italy took a gamble and did not support-hold Ven, instead shifting ITALIAN (A) Ven – Pie, A (Rom) – Ven, and moved ITALIAN F (ION) – Adr. I am very glad I supported RUSSIAN A (Bud) – Ser (even though the support was ultimately unnecessary – Italy tried unsuccessfully for TURKISH Bul rather than support-holding Austria’s final unit). With aggressive Italian moves, and a backstab from Russia, I could lose Tyr, Tri, Vie, or all three. Fortunately my relationship with Russia is so strong that I anticipate he’ll have my back, and play conservatively to hold Ser from potential Italian/Austrian backlash.

I have nothing much to do this turn but hold the line and try not to lose territory, banking on my Russian ace in the hole continuing to prosecute the war against France after he mops up England. R/G is rock-solid and has an excellent track record, being solely responsible for the probable joint demises of England and Austria this year.

Fall 1906 Orders
A (Ruh) hold
F (HEL) support-hold F (NTH)
F (NTH) support RUSSIAN A (Edi) – Yor
A (Mun) support-hold A (Tyr)
A (Tri) support-hold A (Tyr)
A (Tyr) support-hold A (Tri)

Winter 1906
Italy tried unsuccessfully for Tyr, which was held. Italy’s cut my support from Tri, which was held with *double* support from Russia. Nice! Russia clearly still has my back.
Meanwhile, in the West, Russia forced England out of Lvp, while France turtled up against Russia and even threw a support to A (Mun).

This year I gained no SCs (7 total), while Russia gained 2 SCs (11 total). This R/G alliance could soon become imbalanced to the point of no return. Solo bids are inherently harder to stop in gunboat – plus Russia is already light-years beyond the stalemate line in the North. Russia’s builds once again will indicate to me if he means to continue the alliance or will try to make me his next meal.
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Re: Gobsmack - A Germany gunboat journal

#5 Post by Amwidkle » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:08 pm

LINK TO REFERENCED GAME: https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=387345

1907 & 1908

Spring 1907
Russia built favorably to me once again, adding another RUSSIAN F (St. P) (nc), as well as a sensible defensive build in A (Mos). France signaled support for Mun, is holding a firm line that promises to block me from further gains and is probably holding out for me and Russia to go to war now that the latter is on 11 SCs. I thought long and hard about this. Russia’s builds were favorable but he could always still get the jump on me with a stab to the undefended Vie.

I think hard about stabbing Russia with moves like: (1) F (NTH) – SKA, followed up by F (HEL) convoy A (Hol) – Den, which would allow Swe to be forced in the fall, (2) A (Mun) – Sil, hoping that RUSSIAN A (Mos) moves north and I simply walk into War; (3) retreating from my lines with Italy, sacrificing Tri in order to guarantee holding Vie.

However, I decide against stabbing Russia. Russia is on 11 SCs but is so spread out that him soloing is not yet a threat. Turkey, Italy, and France are all very viable powers who would join forces in the event of a Russian solo bid. Plus, Russia’s play has been so gosh darn favorable to me. We’ve predicted each others’ moves so many times. Throwing that alliance away would make that rapport nearly impossible to re-establish, especially in gunboat. While France signaled support for me last round, he rejected my peace offer several years ago and his lines are still too close for comfort. It could still be viable for Russia to ally with France in the West instead, and together destroy me while Russia stays far enough away from the solo.

So I will maintain the alliance with Russia, counting that the anti-English alliance transitions smoothly to an anti-France alliance, and that Russia will allow me Lon and most of the French mainland SCs to help maintain R/G parity.

Spring 1907 Orders
F (HEL) – NTH
F (NTH) – Lon
A (Mun) support-hold A (Tyr)
A (Tyr) support-hold A (Tri)
A (Hol) support-hold A (Ruh)
A (Ruh) support-hold A (Mun)
A (Tri) support RUSSIAN A (Ser) – Alb

Fall 1907
Wow! France… just up and left Lon… and I sailed right in! This solves a big potential issue in prosecuting the coming R/G war against France, which was Russia potentially muscling into Lon himself and leaving me frozen out of the British Isles. Indeed, Russia has an army in Yor and a fleet in Wal now, so he could have theoretically forced it. But now that my fleet is already in Lon, he would have to stab me hard in order to gain it himself, which he’s so far been unwilling to do.

France’s tactical retreat from Britain definitely surprised me – and would have actually left me high and dry had I made the decision to stab Russia in Spring. I definitely made the right choice here, and R/G alliance parity is returning.

I will try for Bel to follow-up on my unexpected gains (France can only hold Bel if he uses ENG to cut support from NTH), and hold the line against Italy in the south.

Fall 1907 Orders
A (Mun) – Bur
A (Ruh) – Bel
A (Tyr) support-hold A (Tri)
A (Tri) support-hold A (Tyr)
F (NTH) support A (Ruh) – Bel
A (Hol) support A (Ruh) – Bel
F (Lon) support RUSSIAN F (Wal) – ENG

Winter 1907
I gained Bel! With Lon, that was an unexpectedly good year for me, giving me +2 SCs. Definitely would not have predicted that at all, as I stared at the Maginot Line last year. On the flip side, France now must make 2 destroys.

Meanwhile in the south, Turkey is stalled in Bul, endlessly support-holding and looking very much the sick man of Europe. However, he’s maintaining territorial integrity on 4 SCs. He’s doing what I need to do, in terms of keeping Russia from growing too strong. Perhaps next year I will try to move an army to Alb and support Turkey to Gre.

I have two builds, but Mun is occupied, and building anything in Ber would frighten Russia more than I want to. I don’t truly need the second build this year, so I’ll do something bound to please Russia – I’ll postpone a build and only build A (Kie).

Spring 1908
At long last, I can finally begin a full-scale invasion of France from a position of strength. The Maginot Line that seemed so formidable is now a light garrison of two armies in Bur and Mar, with a gap in Pic.

I consider sliding A (Tri) – Alb in order to assist Turkey in the capture of Gre, but the chances of coordinating it are slim and such a move could be considered hostile to either Turkey or Russia. With the bulk of my forces heading into France I figure it’s better to stay in my lane in the Balkans.

Nothing too flashy here with my orders.

Spring 1908 Orders
A (Bel) – Pic
A (Hol) – Bel
A (Kie) – Ruh
A (Mun) – Bur
F (NTH) support A (Hol) – Bel
F (Lon) support-hold RUSSIAN F (ENG)
A (Tyr) support-hold A (Tri)
A (Tri) support-hold A (Tyr)

Fall 1908
I capture Pic and have Bur surrounded by four armies, meaning any retreat this season will have to go backwards. Russia’s attack on MAO predictably failed. Russia ordered ENG to Bre, which I wonder is intended as a signal that Russia wants Bre for himself. Not sure that’s a good move for me to allow him to claim it. I have Spa & Por earmarked to go to Russia ultimately (which would bring him to 13 SCs – getting close to solo territory).

In the Balkans, we at long last have a change in the diplomatic situation. Russia adds to the intrigue by capturing Alb himself! He now occupies Bud, Rum, Ser, and Alb with armies, meaning he can strike in any direction. Also of note, Russia and Turkey *both* tried to bounce in BLA. I wonder who Russia will target? Turkey? Italy? Possibly even me?! I doubt the latter: if he wanted to strike me he would have just walked into Vie. I’m glad Russia’s attentions are focused elsewhere, but I want to preserve the balance of power in the East if I can. Italy has been sailing west and now has both his fleets stationed in the WMS & TYS, presumably to help France hold the line (if he’d wanted to swipe some of France for himself, he would have moved GOL rather than WMS). I wonder if Italy will now sail at least one fleet back East to deal with the Balkan conflict. Italy sure is in a curious position, on 5 SCs and relatively safe from attack but in danger of being swallowed by the encroaching R/G. He’s been support-holding Tri for the last several seasons. My guess is Italy will seek to preserve the status quo by any means necessary.
Now we see the impact of having not built in Ber: Russia surely would not have made these movements had I done so, as he has left War exposed.

After an interlude of relative calm yet unmistakable tension following Austria’s demise, the East is heating up again, from Russia’s move to Alb. I’m glad I wasn’t the one to turn up the temperature. If Russia starts to paint a larger target on his back as a result of this, frankly, that’s alright – I can become the leader of a “stop the solo” coalition. As long as Russia can’t actually solo, that suits me just find.
Italy and Turkey support-held each other last round in Gre & Bul, and I imagine Russia’s move into Alb will draw them even closer together. However, it looks like Russia can force his way into either Gre or Bul this season, and ultimately both SCs, but it will be slow going from there. Turkey can turtle up, especially if Italy is on his side. Meanwhile, in Austria, Russia is cut off from Italy’s mainland and will have nowhere to expand but against me. Hmmm. Had better watch this.

By the same token, once I have claimed as much of France as I can claim, I will have nowhere left to turn but against Russia, unless I can find a way to batter down Italy’s alpine garrison: If I take Marseilles, for instance.

I wonder if Russia will soon realize this too, and realize he needs to strike me first. As outstanding as this R/G has been, our alliance is about to become a casualty of its own success. The board imposes limits on how far we can go together. Sad as it is to say, our alliance seems to be in its sunset period. At the same time, our empires are so intertwined at this point it will be hard to imagine how to disentangle. In the North, Russia controls major sea lanes. Lon has breathing room for the moment, but it’s essentially a hostage, since Russia can surround it instantly. If and when the breakup comes, it will be messy. But I can’t quite pull the trigger yet. I can’t get a clean read on Russia in the Balkans as yet, and if I guess wrong, my element of surprise will be wasted.

I will continue to press the attack on France.

Fall 1908 Orders
A (Ruh) – Bur
A (Pic) – Par
A (Tyr) support-hold A (Tri)
A (Tri) support-hold A (Tyr)
F (NTH) support-hold RUSSIAN F (ENG)
F (Lon) support-hold F (NTH)
A (Mun) support A (Ruh) – Bur
A (Bel) support A (Ruh) – Bur

Winter 1908
As expected, my attack to Bur succeeded, while my attack to Par was bounced. Russia captured ITALIAN (A) Gre, which was forced to disband. Meanwhile Russia also gained MAO, while France voluntarily vacated FRENCH F (MAO) to Spain (sc), a bit surprisingly. France’s tactical retreating is putting me in a difficult spot. It exposes the fact that France can’t actually be defeated without blowing the game wide open to Russia. The window to prevent a Russian solo is rapidly closing. I simply must stab Russia next year, and probably next turn.

I gained no SCs this year, but because I postponed a build. With Mun occupied, perhaps the only option that won’t arouse suspicions from Russia is A (Kie). Although building A (Ber) would be tactically superior, preserving the element of surprise is even more important.
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