Absurd AI guessing

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Swede03
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Absurd AI guessing

#1 Post by Swede03 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:40 pm

I was playing as Turkey, and everything was going great until I hit a stalemate line with Germany. I still knew I would win, as England was slowly eating away behind German lines, but I expected to win much earlier. For nine straight turns, the AI correctly guessed on a 50/50 whether I would attack Spain or Marseilles. I have never seen anything like this.

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=313065

TheFlyingBoat
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#2 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:55 pm

Swede03 wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:40 pm
I was playing as Turkey, and everything was going great until I hit a stalemate line with Germany. I still knew I would win, as England was slowly eating away behind German lines, but I expected to win much earlier. For nine straight turns, the AI correctly guessed on a 50/50 whether I would attack Spain or Marseilles. I have never seen anything like this.

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=313065
I have to ask why did you never order the obvious MAO-Gas, WME-Spa, GoL S Pie-Mar? That would have saved a lost of time wasted guessing.
3

DougJoe
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#3 Post by DougJoe » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:49 am

I think it's pretty interesting that Germany actually supported your move from Naf to MAO in S1912. It's rare but I've seen the bots do some interesting things with orders (support holding units that move, providing move supports for units that hold, etc.)

Having a bot flip its orders ever other turn seems to be unusual... from my experience, it seems that the bots tend to repeat moves fairly often, even for several turns... this game (http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=294713) is a good example where Turkey does, essentially, the same move set from F1913 through 1916. In 1917 he figures out that he needs a fleet in Pie to make progress (not that it did him any good in the end, but still).

...or this one (http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=312827) where, once I got into Budapest in S1912, the bot never, not once, tried to attack it... Russia's bot seemed to be obsessed with Rum and Tri and once I saw that Bud was being left alone for several (4) turns, I finally took the chance that he wouldn't attack it and tried to use it to my advantage. I was actually worried that he would move Tyo->Pie for several of those turns, and was kind of surprised when he didn't retreat there when I finally kicked him out of Tyo.

I also had a recent game (http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=310884) go south because I played a bit more aggressively and made the guess that the bot would repeat its moves (Spring of 03 where he went for Spain) and the bot switched and I lost Mar... although in that game I really appreciated the eventual Austrian stab of Italy for all three Italian home centers in spring (the setup) and fall of 1909.

Swede03
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#4 Post by Swede03 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:55 am

TheFlyingBoat wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:55 pm
Swede03 wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:40 pm
I was playing as Turkey, and everything was going great until I hit a stalemate line with Germany. I still knew I would win, as England was slowly eating away behind German lines, but I expected to win much earlier. For nine straight turns, the AI correctly guessed on a 50/50 whether I would attack Spain or Marseilles. I have never seen anything like this.

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=313065
I have to ask why did you never order the obvious MAO-Gas, WME-Spa, GoL S Pie-Mar? That would have saved a lost of time wasted guessing.
That's a good point. I should have done that

Swede03
Posts: 52
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#5 Post by Swede03 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:58 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:49 am
I think it's pretty interesting that Germany actually supported your move from Naf to MAO in S1912. It's rare but I've seen the bots do some interesting things with orders (support holding units that move, providing move supports for units that hold, etc.)

Having a bot flip its orders ever other turn seems to be unusual... from my experience, it seems that the bots tend to repeat moves fairly often, even for several turns... this game (http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=294713) is a good example where Turkey does, essentially, the same move set from F1913 through 1916. In 1917 he figures out that he needs a fleet in Pie to make progress (not that it did him any good in the end, but still).

...or this one (http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=312827) where, once I got into Budapest in S1912, the bot never, not once, tried to attack it... Russia's bot seemed to be obsessed with Rum and Tri and once I saw that Bud was being left alone for several (4) turns, I finally took the chance that he wouldn't attack it and tried to use it to my advantage. I was actually worried that he would move Tyo->Pie for several of those turns, and was kind of surprised when he didn't retreat there when I finally kicked him out of Tyo.

I also had a recent game (http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=310884) go south because I played a bit more aggressively and made the guess that the bot would repeat its moves (Spring of 03 where he went for Spain) and the bot switched and I lost Mar... although in that game I really appreciated the eventual Austrian stab of Italy for all three Italian home centers in spring (the setup) and fall of 1909.
Yeah, normally there isn't much variation in the bot's moves, as evidenced by the Eastern Front in that game. Germany ordered the same thing every turn for years(unfortunately, there was no way to get through over there until England helped me out). On the Mediterranean Front, it switched between those moves with no pattern at all. It was definitely a rare situation.

Swede03
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#6 Post by Swede03 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:10 am

I'm playing another game as Turkey, this time trying the Juggernaut. For eight straight turns, Russia didn't support me to Trieste and did nothing instead. Then, finally I did an adjustment of my units and Russia decides to support me that turn.

DougJoe
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#7 Post by DougJoe » Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:25 pm

Swede03 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:10 am
I'm playing another game as Turkey, this time trying the Juggernaut. For eight straight turns, Russia didn't support me to Trieste and did nothing instead. Then, finally I did an adjustment of my units and Russia decides to support me that turn.
Interesting. I'm assuming you are speaking of Classical Struggle-129? Spring 1908? What's even funnier is that the Russian supported Ser->Tri, not your move of Alb->Tri...

Claesar
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#8 Post by Claesar » Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:59 am

Ser-Tri makes more sense from the Russian perspective. I would've done the same.
1

Swede03
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Re: Absurd AI guessing

#9 Post by Swede03 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:50 am

Claesar wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:59 am
Ser-Tri makes more sense from the Russian perspective. I would've done the same.
Yeah, but they confused me by supporting Alb-Tri on the turn where I didn't attack.

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