Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

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swordsman3003
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#221 Post by swordsman3003 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:37 am

Supposedly, luck plays a part in Diplomacy because...

Version 1: Your opponent can out-think you in narrow end-game situations, so you should artificially randomize your moves.

Version 2: Your opponent can't out-think you in narrow end-game situation, so no matter what any player does to decide their moves, the outcome is determined by luck.

Both versions get thumbs-up by (as far as I can tell) the same 3-4 commentators.

First of all, I think this entire line of thinking has been devastating by Jmo's challenge to prove that this has happened even once. Initially, I was buying into the idea that there might be common endgame situations where players have to arbitrarily choose between moves of completely equal value. But because so, so many players come into this thread asserting that such a thing exists without actually being able to dig one up, I now think that this is a canard. I don't care about 1v1s, and I don't care about the theoretical possibility that this might happen; something that, as a matter of practice, doesn't exist is irrelevant to my perspective on this game.

Second, although it is possible to logically combine the two versions in a way that they are both true, nobody seems to be clearly advocating such a point of view. I am just about completely convinced that I am speaking mostly with rationalizers -- people who first convince themselves that Diplomacy involves "luck," and then afterwards come up with reasons and explanations as to why that is so.

Version 1 is an interesting idea and something that has educated me as a player regardless of whether I agree, as a philosophical matter, that this practice makes "luck" part of the game.

Version 2 is anti-smart. (I can't call it unintelligent, because you have to have a certain amount of intelligence to fall for a sophistry like this.) You absolutely can read a person's mind; it's not a magic power. I do it all the time, and it's why I kick ass at this game. If you're good at Diplomacy, you do it too (even if you insist on calling the process "luck").

The fact that Jmo and I, or anybody else who thinks like we do, don't have a 100% win rate proves nothing. It's specious reasoning, and I'm pretty sure any mature person knows that. Even the world's greatest bowlers don't bowl 300 after 300 after 300 after 300, and yet Bowling is a game of pure technique. The fact that the world's best bowler can't create a 300 game every time without fail doesn't prove that the player lacks any special skill. In Diplomacy, unlike Bowling, you have 6 opponents who are trying to stop you. Under these circumstances, Jmo's win rate is staggering, like a bowler who can somewhat-consistently bowl a 300 game.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#222 Post by Restitution » Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:53 am

swordsman3003 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:37 am
Even the world's greatest bowlers don't bowl 300 after 300 after 300 after 300, and yet Bowling is a game of pure technique. The fact that the world's best bowler can't create a 300 game every time without fail doesn't prove that the player lacks any special skill. In Diplomacy, unlike Bowling, you have 6 opponents who are trying to stop you. Under these circumstances, Jmo's win rate is staggering, like a bowler who can somewhat-consistently bowl a 300 game.
Actually, this indicates to me that luck factors into bowling. To some extent. It "plays a part".

The fact that luck factors into bowling doesn't make bowling a 300 not-staggering. Nor would that apply to Dip. You're the one with the normative judgments against luck, not us. I don't think a test of skill being affected by luck makes it less valuable at all.

People make their own luck. Better bowlers will have better performance, on average, than worse bowlers. But any particular game or bowl is affected by luck to some extent.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#223 Post by Restitution » Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:58 am

Like, fuck, dude, other people's brains are subject to chaos theory. You can't, even theoretically, predict or manipulate them perfectly. It would be the same as if I said "Luck plays no part in guessing the weather a month from now", when a butterfly flapping its wings can provably change that.

Better guessers will do better, but any particular guess about the future weather is subject to a shitload of entropy. The exact same process applies to human brains.

People are not simple little clockwork automatons and do, more or less, behave randomly. Not uniformly randomly, but randomly.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#224 Post by Restitution » Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:01 am

All this thread demonstrates to me is that you've incorporated a marketing slogan from 1959 into your sense of self-worth.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#225 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:34 am

Is this the new “Last person to post wins” thread?
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#226 Post by jmo1121109 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:00 am

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:34 am
Is this the new “Last person to post wins” thread?
No that's this http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?viewt ... 47#1539246
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#227 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:43 am

The new forum confuses me.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#228 Post by ben9990 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:49 am

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:34 am
Is this the new “Last person to post wins” thread?
I was about to carry on the argument but you convinced me its not worth it
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#229 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:37 pm

Good, it’s settled then. I win.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#230 Post by Wusti » Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:34 am

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:37 pm
Good, it’s settled then. I win.
That's lucky!
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#231 Post by Percy Williams » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:15 pm

Wusti wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:34 am
Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:37 pm
Good, it’s settled then. I win.
That's lucky!
No, luck has nothing to do with it. The only way to really win is to say something against the rules and get the thread locked. I am now targeting everyone on planet earth, for being an idiot.This means this thread must be locked on the grounds of violating the rules of targeting and insulting people. There is also no need for a mod explanation of why it's locked, since I have just provided one. You're welcome.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#232 Post by Squigs44 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:41 am

Percy Williams wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:15 pm
Wusti wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:34 am
Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:37 pm
Good, it’s settled then. I win.
That's lucky!
No, luck has nothing to do with it. The only way to really win is to say something against the rules and get the thread locked. I am now targeting everyone on planet earth, for being an idiot.This means this thread must be locked on the grounds of violating the rules of targeting and insulting people. There is also no need for a mod explanation of why it's locked, since I have just provided one. You're welcome.
Quick post before its locked ;)

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#233 Post by ssorenn » Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:02 am

Bump

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#234 Post by mhsmith0 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:29 pm

I declare myself the final poster in this thread

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#235 Post by ssorenn » Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:33 pm

mhsmith0 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:29 pm
I declare myself the final poster in this thread
Hahaahahahaaha No

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#236 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:21 am

Luck plays no part in being the last one to post.

ssorenn
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#237 Post by ssorenn » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:26 am

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:21 am
Luck plays no part in being the last one to post.
But..........

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#238 Post by Wusti » Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:00 am

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:21 am
Luck plays no part in being the last one to post.
I concur

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#239 Post by RoganJosh » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:01 am

What if I get hit by a bus just before I make the last post? I mean, luckily enough I wasn't, but what if?

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#240 Post by ssorenn » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Me

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