Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

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King Korpe
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#181 Post by King Korpe » Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:51 am

Luck and the absence of it has influence that manifests in the conditions of certain games. There’s an impossible burden of proof for any claim suggesting that previous statement is completely false.

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#182 Post by RoganJosh » Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:05 am

jmo1121109 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:18 am
Literally nothing in your post was correct from a game analysis standpoint. I'll have to over the weekend to explain why.
I'm expecting fireworks. And I'll be quite disappointed if I only get a list of anecdotes intended to prove that one (or more) of the players was prone to tactical mistakes.

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#183 Post by Wusti » Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:13 am

RoganJosh wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:05 am
jmo1121109 wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:18 am
Literally nothing in your post was correct from a game analysis standpoint. I'll have to over the weekend to explain why.
I'm expecting fireworks. And I'll be quite disappointed if I only get a list of anecdotes intended to prove that one (or more) of the players was prone to tactical mistakes.
Al you did was list options and scenarios - none of which were chance or randomised factor based - so how is it even relevant to the discussion?
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#184 Post by RoganJosh » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:42 am

Wusti wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:13 am
All you did was list options and scenarios - none of which were chance or randomised factor based - so how is it even relevant to the discussion?
I think you entered the discussion at a late stage, so let me repeat some of the basics.

Randomness enters for the following reason. Game theoretically, there is something called "optimal strategy". In this case, optimal strategy for Turkey is to choose A or B using a random number generator. And, optimal strategy for England/France is to choose C or D using a random number generator.

[Conceptually, already this implies that you cannot remove "random" from Diplomacy.]

But, "optimal" need not mean "best".

(Yes - I am ignoring Tunis/Rome for simplicity.)

This situation is so simple that you would expect all involved players to fully understand the situation. However, if your opponent does not fully understand the situation, then there is a strategy which is better than randomizing. Because your opponents tactical skills are insufficient.

So, the point of listing all possibilities was of course to convince you that it is reasonable to assume that all players fully understand the position.
If this is the case, then the situation becomes as follows.
Assume that T is better than E/F at outguessing their opponent.
- If both players try to outguess each other, then T's probability to win is more than 50%.
- If one player choses to use a random number generator, then T's probability to win is exactly 50%.

Long story short: if E/F fully understand the position, and if E/F thinks that T is better than them at outguessing opponents, then the best thing E/F can do is to use a random number generator.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#185 Post by Wusti » Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:22 pm

I understand what you are saying but I don't agree with your premise. I actually think Diplomacy situations are much more similar to generic interpersonal relations.

What I mean by that is when we meet people in social or work situations, a very low percentage of communication and signalling is overt or direct. It is much harder to achieve the same level of sensitivity in a game situation (especially GB for obvious reasons).

The mathematics of Game Theory have remarkably little to do with most Diplomacy games - and the art Swordsman describes is as much a talent, as a learned skill. Subvocalisation for want of a better word, and the ability to read it, will always serve you better than RNG.

You place so many restrictions on your scenario in order to produce the result you are looking for, rather than properly analysing the thought processes of the average player.
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Your Humble Narrator
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#186 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:18 pm

If game theory isn’t applicable to a game, I’ll eat my hat.
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RoganJosh
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#187 Post by RoganJosh » Fri Jul 26, 2019 7:05 pm

@wusti

I don't want to shame you for not reading through 10 pages of same same same... but, again, you're late.

These situations are common in 1v1. They are uncommon in gunboat and full press. My opinion, which I've expressed a number of times, is that if you want to improve your gunboat and/or diplomacy skills, then this is a tactical detail which you should ignore.

No, the only thing I am claiming is that these positions occur. Also in gunboat and full press games. jmo, on the other hand, claims that it is impossible for such a position to occur in a full press game.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#188 Post by swordsman3003 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:36 pm

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:18 pm
If game theory isn’t applicable to a game, I’ll eat my hat.
On its face, this is a laughable claim.

I am certain that “game theory,” in the sense that you are using it and intend me to understand it, refers to the branch of mathematics used for analyzing competitive situations where the participants’ choices interact with or depend on each other. As I understand it, “game theory” applies to a host of situations that would not be described as “games” in common speech. This is because “game theory” uses the word “game” in an idiomatic and even metaphorical sense; that is, “game theory” is not a literal “theory of games” and has never been intended to be understood as such by you or anyone familiar with its underlying concepts and insights.

I also understand the word “game,” in the context of this conversation, to refer to some form of play or sport played according to rules and decided by skill, strength, or luck. This leaves a host of activities that are literally “games” to which the specifics of “game theory” have no application (because the relevant assumptions of “game theory” are not a part of everything called “a game”).

This is all very obvious, but I am saying it anyways because I’m not taking anything for granted in this conversation.

Therefore, I feel so, so certain that when I give you a counter-example, you will define “game theory” or “game” or as something that excludes my counter-example, no matter how backward, unreasonable, or counter intuitive.

Please define these terms in advance so that I have any chance of refuting your statement. Please avoid defining “game” as “that to which ‘game theory’ applies.”

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#189 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:31 am

Okay. I was using “game” to mean “a competitive game like Diplomacy in which the participants’ choices interact with or depend on each other.”

I realized after submitting my post that I was leaving myself open to criticism on the grounds that there are at least some games to which game theory probably would not apply, like Candy Land.

I agree that the “game” in game theory is probably best understood to be kind of metaphorical. I was offering to eat my hat if it did not apply to exactly the sort of game to which the metaphor is referring.

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#190 Post by swordsman3003 » Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:23 am

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:31 am
I agree that the “game” in game theory is probably best understood to be kind of metaphorical. I was offering to eat my hat if it did not apply to exactly the sort of game to which the metaphor is referring.
I understand. I anticipated as much, but needed to make sure. Thank you for clarifying in good faith.

Would you agree with me that your position is a tautology?

You have defined “game theory” as the study of certain “games,” and “games” as the activities studied by game theory.

This is like saying “Give me an example of a restaurant that doesn’t serve food,” with the definition of “restaurant” of “a place that serves food.” Any counter-example would, by definition, not be a restaurant.

I think you have made this error because you aren’t making a formal argument, and thus overlooked that your statement Is recursive and thus does not actually advance a point. A tautology is, by definition, irrefutable. But because you have challenged others to refute you, that implies you think you have advanced some kind of argument rather than stated a tautology. Please clarify further.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#191 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:32 am

Oh yeah, it’s 100% a circular argument whose conclusion depends on a premise that assumes the conclusion is true.

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#192 Post by Your Humble Narrator » Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:35 am

The truth is that I do not want to eat my hat, so I'm not all that inclined to make it possible to refute me and force me to eat my hat.
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Restitution
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#193 Post by Restitution » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:58 am

All interactions between agents with conflicting interests can be analyzed with game theory.

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#194 Post by Mercy » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:13 pm

All interactions between agents can be analyzed with game theory.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#195 Post by Restitution » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:44 pm

Mercy wrote:
Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:13 pm
All interactions between agents can be analyzed with game theory.
Actually yeah that's true.

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#196 Post by Wusti » Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:52 pm

@ Rogan Josh - I have no shame for reading the entire thread and disagreeing with you.

Further, the application of game theory mathematics to the vast bulk of diplomacy games is laughable. Theoretical arguments in this regard ignore the actual practices of the players of games (I agree that the Iain M Banks novel was awesome - but I don't recall him playing mathematically).

I don't challenge anyone's definitions or even assertions of applicability, I simply challenge all of you so tiredly cling to excuses, that regular players don't conduct complex calculations before making their moves.

Diplomacy play is vastly more visceral than mathematical in practice.

Prove me wrong.

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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#197 Post by jmo1121109 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:13 am

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:18 pm
If game theory isn’t applicable to a game, I’ll eat my hat.
I still need to catch up on this thread but I spotted this, and did want to give you the chance to back out of this claim. The last time this type of thing was bet against me, Ava had to post a picture of him biting a shoe. I suppose eating a hat is less gross though.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#198 Post by bo_sox48 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:20 am

I don't know, I've seen some pretty disgusting cases of head lice in my time.
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#199 Post by e.m.c^42 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:17 am

jmo1121109 wrote:
Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:13 am
Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:18 pm
If game theory isn’t applicable to a game, I’ll eat my hat.
I still need to catch up on this thread but I spotted this, and did want to give you the chance to back out of this claim. The last time this type of thing was bet against me, Ava had to post a picture of him biting a shoe. I suppose eating a hat is less gross though.
*proceeds to go dig up relevant threads*

http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=1009427
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=1009823
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Squigs44
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Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

#200 Post by Squigs44 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:34 am

e.m.c^42 wrote:
Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:17 am
jmo1121109 wrote:
Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:13 am
Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:18 pm
If game theory isn’t applicable to a game, I’ll eat my hat.
I still need to catch up on this thread but I spotted this, and did want to give you the chance to back out of this claim. The last time this type of thing was bet against me, Ava had to post a picture of him biting a shoe. I suppose eating a hat is less gross though.
*proceeds to go dig up relevant threads*

http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=1009427
http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=1009823
How long did it take you to find this 2013 old forum thread?
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