Austria vs Bots

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Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#341 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:02 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:43 pm
DougJoe wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:26 pm
I decided to click Ready...

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I held Moscow, and ION did tap Gre, which allowed me to take Bul! So Austria gets two builds this turn. Italy did take Venice, although he took it from Tyo, which I like better than him taking it from Burgundy. Italy also gets two builds. I hope those builds are fleets, but I'm guessing at least one will army Ven (again).

I'm setup to potentially take Greece this year, as well as StP or Sev. I think I'm building two armies again. Vienna for sure. Not sure whether Bud or Tri. Bud is less threatening to Italy, so I might go with that for now?
I ended up building in Bud, then in the spring, moved the following:

Vie S Bud-Tri,
Ser-Gre S Bul,
Ukr-Sev,
War S Mos

I got into Gre (the turkish fleet is destroyed) and everything else worked. The more interesting thing is that Italy moved Ven-Tyo and Boh-Sil. (He did also get into Belgium). He also moved into BLA and AEG, which I assume he is going to use to force his way into Con to eventually get Ank. So I should get at least 2 builds this year...

...I'm still thinking about attacking Italy. Vie-Tyo, Tri-Ven. That would get me three builds and put me at 11. Italy would either be +0 (belgium) or +1 (bel & hol). If he ends up +0 (and Tyo moves like I expect) then I would have units in Ven/Tyo/Tri/Vie/Bud, which seems pretty powerful with Rome on the chopping block. He'd be at 12 and I'd be at 11... defending Gre/Bul might be iffy, but I should have StP to compensate if needed?

Hm.
You've made a decent case for stabbing Italy now. It seems a safe bet Tyrolia moves to Munich. And if you knew Italy won't get a build, you'd be pretty well assured of capturing Rome next year. And then the beast is defanged. But looking at Holland, I'm not so sure Italy won't get a build. England played weak support-holds on Kiel last turn. If he does that again, Italy probably gets Holland. On the other hand, if you don't stab, Italy maybe gets to 14. Ankara is 15 ... Hm indeed.

In my Turkey game, I made a last-minute order change before the moves processed. I went with leaving Trieste alone. It worked out well: Russia brought all 3 armies to bear on moving the Tyrolia army back to Trieste. Ordinarily, I have a rule against last-minute order changes. Too many times, I've changed from winning to losing orders that way. The only time I'll do it is if I discover new reasons that I didn't consider originally, and those reasons are compelling enough to change my thinking. Here, the new reason for laying off Trieste was that Italy probably wasn't going to move there from Venice. A VEN hold was more likely, given that A VEN-->TRI would have left Venice open. Still, it was a close guess. I'm glad it worked out. Germany filled in all the empty spaces with armies, and here we are:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

It's not a superb position for Turkey. I think Russia won't attack me. Probably he'll order TRI support-hold VIE, BUD support-hold VIE. That's what I expected from him last year. I have a good shot at SEV, but it's a guessing game. If I order ARM-->SEV supported by BLA, RUM-->UKR, and BUL-->RUM supported by SER to backfill, I have a guaranteed capture of SEV, but Germany takes RUM with SEV-->RUM supported by UKR and GAL. My army RUM has no retreat and is destroyed. If I anticipate those German moves, I can order SER and BUL support-hold RUM, plus RUM and BLA support ARM-->SEV and I both capture SEV and hold RUM. But, if Germany anticipates those moves, he holds the position with GAL-->RUM, UKR support-hold SEV. Probably I have 2 chances to guess right before the German A SIL arrives in Moscow.

In the Med, I'm just beginning to analyze. ION-->TYS supported by TUN? ION-->ADR? (But Russia probably views that as hostile and what do I gain from it?) Convoy BUL-->Apulia? That would be kind of fun, but based on the above analysis I probably need that army in the fight against Germany.

Some more thinking is in order. I've gotten a bit busy in real life. It might be a day or two before I can post more analysis.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#342 Post by DougJoe » Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:07 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:02 am
You've made a decent case for stabbing Italy now. It seems a safe bet Tyrolia moves to Munich. And if you knew Italy won't get a build, you'd be pretty well assured of capturing Rome next year. And then the beast is defanged. But looking at Holland, I'm not so sure Italy won't get a build. England played weak support-holds on Kiel last turn. If he does that again, Italy probably gets Holland. On the other hand, if you don't stab, Italy maybe gets to 14. Ankara is 15 ... Hm indeed.
I went for it. Italy didn't take Holland, England got it... but...

...he used Tyo to block me out of Venice.

(insert expletive here)

So, I now only get to build one, because both Tri and Vie didn't move.
This is gonna get ugly.
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:02 am
In my Turkey game, I made a last-minute order change before the moves processed. I went with leaving Trieste alone. It worked out well: Russia brought all 3 armies to bear on moving the Tyrolia army back to Trieste. Ordinarily, I have a rule against last-minute order changes. Too many times, I've changed from winning to losing orders that way. The only time I'll do it is if I discover new reasons that I didn't consider originally, and those reasons are compelling enough to change my thinking. Here, the new reason for laying off Trieste was that Italy probably wasn't going to move there from Venice. A VEN hold was more likely, given that A VEN-->TRI would have left Venice open. Still, it was a close guess. I'm glad it worked out. Germany filled in all the empty spaces with armies, and here we are:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

It's not a superb position for Turkey. I think Russia won't attack me. Probably he'll order TRI support-hold VIE, BUD support-hold VIE. That's what I expected from him last year. I have a good shot at SEV, but it's a guessing game. If I order ARM-->SEV supported by BLA, RUM-->UKR, and BUL-->RUM supported by SER to backfill, I have a guaranteed capture of SEV, but Germany takes RUM with SEV-->RUM supported by UKR and GAL. My army RUM has no retreat and is destroyed. If I anticipate those German moves, I can order SER and BUL support-hold RUM, plus RUM and BLA support ARM-->SEV and I both capture SEV and hold RUM. But, if Germany anticipates those moves, he holds the position with GAL-->RUM, UKR support-hold SEV. Probably I have 2 chances to guess right before the German A SIL arrives in Moscow.

In the Med, I'm just beginning to analyze. ION-->TYS supported by TUN? ION-->ADR? (But Russia probably views that as hostile and what do I gain from it?) Convoy BUL-->Apulia? That would be kind of fun, but based on the above analysis I probably need that army in the fight against Germany.

Some more thinking is in order. I've gotten a bit busy in real life. It might be a day or two before I can post more analysis.
No worries about posting.

I, too, try not to second guess myself and change orders at the last minute.

Germany getting into Gal definitely makes things harder for you. I think your analysis of Rum/Sev is spot on.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#343 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:57 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:07 pm
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:02 am
You've made a decent case for stabbing Italy now. It seems a safe bet Tyrolia moves to Munich. And if you knew Italy won't get a build, you'd be pretty well assured of capturing Rome next year. And then the beast is defanged. But looking at Holland, I'm not so sure Italy won't get a build. England played weak support-holds on Kiel last turn. If he does that again, Italy probably gets Holland. On the other hand, if you don't stab, Italy maybe gets to 14. Ankara is 15 ... Hm indeed.
I went for it. Italy didn't take Holland, England got it... but...

...he used Tyo to block me out of Venice.

(insert expletive here)

So, I now only get to build one, because both Tri and Vie didn't move.
This is gonna get ugly.
Ugh, sorry about that. Still, it was a good move. You probably get a solo if Italy fails to cover. Darn. (I can help you choose a better expletive if you'd like. :raging: )
DougJoe wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:07 pm
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:02 am
In my Turkey game, I made a last-minute order change before the moves processed. I went with leaving Trieste alone. It worked out well: Russia brought all 3 armies to bear on moving the Tyrolia army back to Trieste. Ordinarily, I have a rule against last-minute order changes. Too many times, I've changed from winning to losing orders that way. The only time I'll do it is if I discover new reasons that I didn't consider originally, and those reasons are compelling enough to change my thinking. Here, the new reason for laying off Trieste was that Italy probably wasn't going to move there from Venice. A VEN hold was more likely, given that A VEN-->TRI would have left Venice open. Still, it was a close guess. I'm glad it worked out. Germany filled in all the empty spaces with armies, and here we are:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

It's not a superb position for Turkey. I think Russia won't attack me. Probably he'll order TRI support-hold VIE, BUD support-hold VIE. That's what I expected from him last year. I have a good shot at SEV, but it's a guessing game. If I order ARM-->SEV supported by BLA, RUM-->UKR, and BUL-->RUM supported by SER to backfill, I have a guaranteed capture of SEV, but Germany takes RUM with SEV-->RUM supported by UKR and GAL. My army RUM has no retreat and is destroyed. If I anticipate those German moves, I can order SER and BUL support-hold RUM, plus RUM and BLA support ARM-->SEV and I both capture SEV and hold RUM. But, if Germany anticipates those moves, he holds the position with GAL-->RUM, UKR support-hold SEV. Probably I have 2 chances to guess right before the German A SIL arrives in Moscow.

In the Med, I'm just beginning to analyze. ION-->TYS supported by TUN? ION-->ADR? (But Russia probably views that as hostile and what do I gain from it?) Convoy BUL-->Apulia? That would be kind of fun, but based on the above analysis I probably need that army in the fight against Germany.

Some more thinking is in order. I've gotten a bit busy in real life. It might be a day or two before I can post more analysis.
No worries about posting.

I, too, try not to second guess myself and change orders at the last minute.

Germany getting into Gal definitely makes things harder for you. I think your analysis of Rum/Sev is spot on.
The more I think about it, the more I'm leaning toward the convoy: If I play the guessing game for SEV and I guess right, I get 1 SC. And that's it. Germany retreats SEV-->MOS and the position is stalemated. Then I turn attention to Italy, only to find England has the jump on me, and is poised to get Rome, maybe Naples. And I'm done. Nowhere else to go. With the convoy, I immediately put myself in the game for 3 Italian centers. Maybe England blocks me anyway, but I at least have a chance to make progress somewhere, a slight head start even. And in the East, I don't get SEV, but I can still hold my position with BLA and SER support-hold RUM. I guess Russia also needs to hold its position. Which it can ... as long as Italy/England don't interfere? If I land in Apulia, that puts Italy under a lot of pressure. I doubt he'll want to go pick a fight with support-holding Russia. So I just have to keep England out of Venice. Hmm. This all bears some further consideration. More later.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#344 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:34 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:57 pm
DougJoe wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 2:07 pm
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:02 am
You've made a decent case for stabbing Italy now. It seems a safe bet Tyrolia moves to Munich. And if you knew Italy won't get a build, you'd be pretty well assured of capturing Rome next year. And then the beast is defanged. But looking at Holland, I'm not so sure Italy won't get a build. England played weak support-holds on Kiel last turn. If he does that again, Italy probably gets Holland. On the other hand, if you don't stab, Italy maybe gets to 14. Ankara is 15 ... Hm indeed.
I went for it. Italy didn't take Holland, England got it... but...

...he used Tyo to block me out of Venice.

(insert expletive here)

So, I now only get to build one, because both Tri and Vie didn't move.
This is gonna get ugly.
Ugh, sorry about that. Still, it was a good move. You probably get a solo if Italy fails to cover. Darn. (I can help you choose a better expletive if you'd like. :raging: )
:lol: If only I could insert the "dolphin chitter" from the SpongeBob "sentence enhancers" episode. My brain is in stun-lock right now so I'm having a hard time even coming up with a plan for my game... but I won't give up!
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:57 pm
The more I think about it, the more I'm leaning toward the convoy: If I play the guessing game for SEV and I guess right, I get 1 SC. And that's it. Germany retreats SEV-->MOS and the position is stalemated. Then I turn attention to Italy, only to find England has the jump on me, and is poised to get Rome, maybe Naples. And I'm done. Nowhere else to go. With the convoy, I immediately put myself in the game for 3 Italian centers. Maybe England blocks me anyway, but I at least have a chance to make progress somewhere, a slight head start even. And in the East, I don't get SEV, but I can still hold my position with BLA and SER support-hold RUM. I guess Russia also needs to hold its position. Which it can ... as long as Italy/England don't interfere? If I land in Apulia, that puts Italy under a lot of pressure. I doubt he'll want to go pick a fight with support-holding Russia. So I just have to keep England out of Venice. Hmm. This all bears some further consideration. More later.
That's a good point, actually. You and Russia can stalemate Germany while you attack Italy (you can even try Rum S Arm-Sev, you never know). You probably have one turn to convoy, as England's probably going to move to Naf this turn and threaten Tunis and you'll need ION to cover Tun (unless you're willing to sacrifice Tunis).

Also, what's that German army doing in Gascony? Must be some kinda party going on there.

Trigfea63
Posts: 290
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#345 Post by Trigfea63 » Fri Sep 30, 2022 5:02 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:34 am
:lol: If only I could insert the "dolphin chitter" from the SpongeBob "sentence enhancers" episode. My brain is in stun-lock right now so I'm having a hard time even coming up with a plan for my game... but I won't give up!
Haha, I had to google that one.
DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:34 am
That's a good point, actually. You and Russia can stalemate Germany while you attack Italy (you can even try Rum S Arm-Sev, you never know). You probably have one turn to convoy, as England's probably going to move to Naf this turn and threaten Tunis and you'll need ION to cover Tun (unless you're willing to sacrifice Tunis).

Also, what's that German army doing in Gascony? Must be some kinda party going on there.
That's hilarious. A wine-tasting tour in Bordeaux maybe? I do like the idea of taking a pop at SEV while I convoy to Italy. Your way is the safest and would work if Germany repeats last season's attack on Rumania from SEV. And the bots do tend to get grooved into particular movesets. I do also have the slightly less safe option of RUM-->SEV supported by ARM, and SER-->RUM to backfill. It seems unlikely Germany would order GAL-->RUM with UKR support or vice versa, while SEV is neither protected nor attacking RUM. So I still have the guessing game, just with a less robust defensive position. As to the convoy itself, there is a risk that Italy disrupts it with a supported attack on the Ionian. My tentative orders have Tunis support-holding Ionian, but it's possible England could tap Tunis. A bit more mulling before I hit Ready ...

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#346 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:07 am

Time to ready up. Here goes:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

And success! I took SEV from Germany and convoyed to Apulia. Yeehaw!

Now for the bad news: That might be my last successful attack this game. England is coming at me with full power in the Med. (And Italy wants to help him take Tunis.) The party in Gascony is apparently over. It's me and Russia against the world from here on out.

If I can find a stalemate line in the south, I could perhaps weasel my way into a 3-way draw. Kind of humiliating when I'm in last place among the survivors. But I'll do it if I really have no chance for a solo and my position is solid enough to warrant a draw against human players.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#347 Post by DougJoe » Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:20 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:07 am
Time to ready up. Here goes:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

And success! I took SEV from Germany and convoyed to Apulia. Yeehaw!

Now for the bad news: That might be my last successful attack this game. England is coming at me with full power in the Med. (And Italy wants to help him take Tunis.) The party in Gascony is apparently over. It's me and Russia against the world from here on out.

If I can find a stalemate line in the south, I could perhaps weasel my way into a 3-way draw. Kind of humiliating when I'm in last place among the survivors. But I'll do it if I really have no chance for a solo and my position is solid enough to warrant a draw against human players.
I had a sneaking suspicion that Germany would play Sev-Rum because it was his only defense against Rum-Sev.

Give the bots every opportunity to mess it up.

I don't remember if there's a southern stalemate line that's applicable that doesn't involve Italy.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#348 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:43 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:20 am
I had a sneaking suspicion that Germany would play Sev-Rum because it was his only defense against Rum-Sev.

Give the bots every opportunity to mess it up.

I don't remember if there's a southern stalemate line that's applicable that doesn't involve Italy.
You may be right. I reviewed my go-to article, Visual Index to Stalemate Positions (http://uk.diplom.org/pouch/Online/Stale ... visual.htm). All of the southern stalemate positions include Italian centers. So I have to try to capture those. And anyway, that's my best (only?) chance at gaining ground anywhere. Even if I can't get to a technical stalemate position, it's possible the bots will get "grooved in" to a particular moveset and miss the alternative breakthrough moveset. If I can get to a point where the bots are repeatedly making the same moves and failing to progress, I wll consider that sufficient to take credit for a draw.

With my build for capturing SEV, I built another fleet in Smyrna. My thinking was, I might not be able to save Tunis from destruction, and I probably can't hold the Ionian with 2 fleets. Also, there's no point building another army if I can't bring it into the action, which probably means convoying it to Italy. And I can't convoy unless I have the Ionian pretty well locked down.

Italy removed the TYS fleet (so maybe I can save F Tunis after all). Germany removed Denmark. England built F London. Here's the position for Spr '09:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

My initial thought is to try for Naples right now, before the reinforcements arrive: APU-->NAP supported by ION. The only way Italy can block that is NAP-->APU supported by VEN. In my experience, the bots are not good at recognizing that defensive maneuver. I'd also like to keep England's GoL fleet out of TYS, so TUN-->TYS. Round it out with AEG-->GRE, SMY-->AEG, and a bunch of support-holds.

A possible alternative could be ION-->NAP supported by APU, and TUN-->ION with support to save the Tunis fleet. At first blush I don't like those moves as much. They seem less likely to succeed in capturing Naples, and they do nothing to stop a full-on English advance in the Med.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#349 Post by Trigfea63 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:42 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:43 pm
My initial thought is to try for Naples right now, before the reinforcements arrive: APU-->NAP supported by ION. The only way Italy can block that is NAP-->APU supported by VEN. In my experience, the bots are not good at recognizing that defensive maneuver. I'd also like to keep England's GoL fleet out of TYS, so TUN-->TYS. Round it out with AEG-->GRE, SMY-->AEG, and a bunch of support-holds.

A possible alternative could be ION-->NAP supported by APU, and TUN-->ION with support to save the Tunis fleet. At first blush I don't like those moves as much. They seem less likely to succeed in capturing Naples, and they do nothing to stop a full-on English advance in the Med.
Having thought more about it, I'm going to order ION-->NAP supported by APU, instead of the other way around. I still think attacking from Apulia probably has a better chance of success. The trouble is, if I succeed in taking Naples that way, then what? I have an army in Naples (awkward at best), a fleet in Ionian, and no other units in the Italian theater. (Assume the Tunis fleet will be destroyed.) Attacking from Ionian creates a much better result if it works. I end up with a fleet in Naples, an army in Apulia, and a fleet in the Ionian. Also, instead of retreating TUN-->ION, I can still order TUN-->TYS to block England, and backfill Ionian from Aegean. The last piece of this analysis is the chance of success in taking Naples from Ionian supported by Apulia. I think it's not bad. To counter, Italy would have to order VEN-->APU. That seems possible, but maybe not highly likely given the Russian army in Trieste and the German army in Tyrolia. I wouldn't be surprised in the Venice army supported TUS-->ROM. Also, even if Italy does order VEN-->APU, blocking my attack, how much better off would I have been had I taken Naples from Apulia? I'd end up in the Autumn season with an army in Naples surrounded by Italian armies in Apulia and Rome, and a fleet in Ionian Sea likely to be attacked by England.

So here goes:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Hmm. Well, I got Naples. However ... Italy played NAP-->APU supported by VEN after all, and he destroyed my Apulia army. :o Not good. England moved to TYS with support, so he made it, but my Tunis army is still alive. I'll need to lick my wounds before I try analyzing the Autumn moves.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#350 Post by DougJoe » Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:00 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:42 pm
Trigfea63 wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:43 pm
My initial thought is to try for Naples right now, before the reinforcements arrive: APU-->NAP supported by ION. The only way Italy can block that is NAP-->APU supported by VEN. In my experience, the bots are not good at recognizing that defensive maneuver. I'd also like to keep England's GoL fleet out of TYS, so TUN-->TYS. Round it out with AEG-->GRE, SMY-->AEG, and a bunch of support-holds.

A possible alternative could be ION-->NAP supported by APU, and TUN-->ION with support to save the Tunis fleet. At first blush I don't like those moves as much. They seem less likely to succeed in capturing Naples, and they do nothing to stop a full-on English advance in the Med.
Having thought more about it, I'm going to order ION-->NAP supported by APU, instead of the other way around. I still think attacking from Apulia probably has a better chance of success. The trouble is, if I succeed in taking Naples that way, then what? I have an army in Naples (awkward at best), a fleet in Ionian, and no other units in the Italian theater. (Assume the Tunis fleet will be destroyed.) Attacking from Ionian creates a much better result if it works. I end up with a fleet in Naples, an army in Apulia, and a fleet in the Ionian. Also, instead of retreating TUN-->ION, I can still order TUN-->TYS to block England, and backfill Ionian from Aegean. The last piece of this analysis is the chance of success in taking Naples from Ionian supported by Apulia. I think it's not bad. To counter, Italy would have to order VEN-->APU. That seems possible, but maybe not highly likely given the Russian army in Trieste and the German army in Tyrolia. I wouldn't be surprised in the Venice army supported TUS-->ROM. Also, even if Italy does order VEN-->APU, blocking my attack, how much better off would I have been had I taken Naples from Apulia? I'd end up in the Autumn season with an army in Naples surrounded by Italian armies in Apulia and Rome, and a fleet in Ionian Sea likely to be attacked by England.

So here goes:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Hmm. Well, I got Naples. However ... Italy played NAP-->APU supported by VEN after all, and he destroyed my Apulia army. :o Not good. England moved to TYS with support, so he made it, but my Tunis army is still alive. I'll need to lick my wounds before I try analyzing the Autumn moves.
Yeah, that's kind of a pain in Apulia.

Just as a note (and I'm sure you noticed) based on what was played Rum S Sev-Ukr would get you into Ukr (BLA could bounce). Not sure that it helps, but it's worth pointing out. Germany *could* play the simple Mos S Ukr, but he didn't (maybe he will later?)... it's at least something that's potentially vulnerable that should be kept in mind. You probably did need to build a fleet during the last build phase, but it's annoying that you don't have an Army to bounce with in Sev instead of the Black Sea Fleet.

I don't see Italy doing anything other than Rom S Apu->Nap, so ION S Nap is the only way you keep Nap. I don't think England bot will be smart enough to use TYS to tap ION (and then the other two to attack Tun) so I think that you'll be ok to keep Naples. I would guess than England will play GoL-TYS, Naf & WMS S TYS-Tun... but that's just a guess. Since Naples get tapped, you can't use it in defense of Tunis.

*sigh*

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#351 Post by DougJoe » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:28 pm

As far as my game goes, the German retreat to Prussia is annoying, as I fully expect him to try to survive by sniping Warsaw which means I probably won't get StP this turn (which, I guess, isn't the worst thing as I probably won't have room to build a second army anyway).

There's really not much I can do as far as the Balkans and Turkey, given the fleet/army disparity - I'd love to try to wrap units around through Armenia but the Turkish unit is in the way this turn... maybe possible later? Not sure. I'd also love to help England out somehow, but aside from moving to Pru myself later I'm not sure how that would work.

So for right now it's:
Alb S Gre
Gre S Bul
Rum S Bul
Vie S Bud-Tri
Bul, Sev H
Pru-War, Mos-War

I feel like there should be something better to do with Bul/Rum/Sev, but not thinking of it yet.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#352 Post by DougJoe » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:47 am

DougJoe wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:28 pm
As far as my game goes, the German retreat to Prussia is annoying, as I fully expect him to try to survive by sniping Warsaw which means I probably won't get StP this turn (which, I guess, isn't the worst thing as I probably won't have room to build a second army anyway).

There's really not much I can do as far as the Balkans and Turkey, given the fleet/army disparity - I'd love to try to wrap units around through Armenia but the Turkish unit is in the way this turn... maybe possible later? Not sure. I'd also love to help England out somehow, but aside from moving to Pru myself later I'm not sure how that would work.

So for right now it's:
Alb S Gre
Gre S Bul
Rum S Bul
Vie S Bud-Tri
Bul, Sev H
Pru-War, Mos-War

I feel like there should be something better to do with Bul/Rum/Sev, but not thinking of it yet.
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Well, I did guess Germany right, he did try to snipe Warsaw. Otherwise, I left everything pretty much the way I said except Sev-Arm, which, of course, didn't have any impact (although Turkey also made a last ditch effort for Sev).

Turkey and Germany are out. Russia's still hanging on in St.P. I get one build, and, as much as I'd love to build a fleet, it's probably gonna be army Tri. Italy only needs 3 more...

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#353 Post by Trigfea63 » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:48 am

DougJoe wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:47 am
DougJoe wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:28 pm
As far as my game goes, the German retreat to Prussia is annoying, as I fully expect him to try to survive by sniping Warsaw which means I probably won't get StP this turn (which, I guess, isn't the worst thing as I probably won't have room to build a second army anyway).

There's really not much I can do as far as the Balkans and Turkey, given the fleet/army disparity - I'd love to try to wrap units around through Armenia but the Turkish unit is in the way this turn... maybe possible later? Not sure. I'd also love to help England out somehow, but aside from moving to Pru myself later I'm not sure how that would work.

So for right now it's:
Alb S Gre
Gre S Bul
Rum S Bul
Vie S Bud-Tri
Bul, Sev H
Pru-War, Mos-War

I feel like there should be something better to do with Bul/Rum/Sev, but not thinking of it yet.
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Well, I did guess Germany right, he did try to snipe Warsaw. Otherwise, I left everything pretty much the way I said except Sev-Arm, which, of course, didn't have any impact (although Turkey also made a last ditch effort for Sev).

Turkey and Germany are out. Russia's still hanging on in St.P. I get one build, and, as much as I'd love to build a fleet, it's probably gonna be army Tri. Italy only needs 3 more...
You're in a tough spot. Defending everywhere Italy can attack occupies nearly all of your units. You need to grow a bit, and then you'd have more freedom. But how? You can definitely take StP, but then Russia retreats to Norway. That weakens England, which you can't really afford in the long run. You'd also have to somehow clear a home center to build the new unit. Italy has some devastating attacks, as I'm sure you've noticed. MUN-->SIL, TYR-->BOH, VEN-->TYR, ROM-->VEN would be ugly. Or convoying Rome to Smyrna. Or ION-->ADR, NAP-->ION. Or CON-->BLA, AEG-->CON, ION-->AEG, NAP-->ION. Sorry to be a downer. I've been staring at the map, trying to find something more promising. It's hard to find. LVN-->PRU and work with England on Berlin? It's not great. At least MOS-->StP could keep the Russian army from doing anything too mischievous.

* * *

My game isn't much better. You made a good observation about Ukraine. I think to exploit that, I need to have another army ready in ARM to occupy SEV. Is that better than re-trying the convoy to Apulia? Let's see when the build phase arrives. Hopefully I'll hold Naples for +1. It's support-holds for Autumn '09:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Your predictions for England and Italy were spot on. Naples held. Italy is -1. Hopefully, probably, he removes Apulia. England got Tunis and my fleet was destroyed. The defense of Naples gets dicier. Maybe I can order NAP support-hold ROM enough times that Italy gets the idea. Before it's too late.

Interesting thing, I actually have 2 builds. One for Naples, one for the destroyed Apulia army. I'm debating two army builds vs. 1 army, 1 fleet. An army in ANK can go to ARM, then SEV while SEV takes Ukraine. The second army would be for another shot at a convoy to Italy. The fleet would be for defense. I guess I have 3 more days to consider it.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#354 Post by DougJoe » Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:50 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:48 am
You're in a tough spot. Defending everywhere Italy can attack occupies nearly all of your units. You need to grow a bit, and then you'd have more freedom. But how? You can definitely take StP, but then Russia retreats to Norway. That weakens England, which you can't really afford in the long run. You'd also have to somehow clear a home center to build the new unit. Italy has some devastating attacks, as I'm sure you've noticed. MUN-->SIL, TYR-->BOH, VEN-->TYR, ROM-->VEN would be ugly. Or convoying Rome to Smyrna. Or ION-->ADR, NAP-->ION. Or CON-->BLA, AEG-->CON, ION-->AEG, NAP-->ION. Sorry to be a downer. I've been staring at the map, trying to find something more promising. It's hard to find. LVN-->PRU and work with England on Berlin? It's not great. At least MOS-->StP could keep the Russian army from doing anything too mischievous.
A lot of what you've said mirrors my own thoughts: Rom->Ven->Tyo->Boh is an absolute killer, as is ION-ADR. I can take StP, but, agreed, I don't want to him to retreat to Norway. The best I've come up with so far is to do Liv-Mos, Mos-Sev, Sev-Arm to at least try to put some sort of pressure on Italy from behind. Otherwise, it's a guessing game on where Tyo is going to go.
Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:48 am
My game isn't much better. You made a good observation about Ukraine. I think to exploit that, I need to have another army ready in ARM to occupy SEV. Is that better than re-trying the convoy to Apulia? Let's see when the build phase arrives. Hopefully I'll hold Naples for +1. It's support-holds for Autumn '09:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Your predictions for England and Italy were spot on. Naples held. Italy is -1. Hopefully, probably, he removes Apulia. England got Tunis and my fleet was destroyed. The defense of Naples gets dicier. Maybe I can order NAP support-hold ROM enough times that Italy gets the idea. Before it's too late.

Interesting thing, I actually have 2 builds. One for Naples, one for the destroyed Apulia army. I'm debating two army builds vs. 1 army, 1 fleet. An army in ANK can go to ARM, then SEV while SEV takes Ukraine. The second army would be for another shot at a convoy to Italy. The fleet would be for defense. I guess I have 3 more days to consider it.
Heh, you do (get two builds) because F Tun was destroyed.

If you think Italy will remove Apulia, the convoy is a possibility and I think Army/Army makes sense... and then assuming the convoy works, you might even end up having to defend Rome or Venice. Otherwise, if you think Italy keeps Apu, I think you want F/A (heck, I could probably even make a case for F/F but I don't have time right now).

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#355 Post by DougJoe » Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:50 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:50 pm
A lot of what you've said mirrors my own thoughts: Rom->Ven->Tyo->Boh is an absolute killer, as is ION-ADR. I can take StP, but, agreed, I don't want to him to retreat to Norway. The best I've come up with so far is to do Liv-Mos, Mos-Sev, Sev-Arm to at least try to put some sort of pressure on Italy from behind. Otherwise, it's a guessing game on where Tyo is going to go.
I ended up with the following:
Tri S Vie-Tyo (bounces Ven-Tyo if Rom-Ven-Tyo-Boh)
Bud S Tri (was originally going to move Serbia to help with Bul, but changed to defend Tri)
Alb S Gre
Gre S Bul
Rum S Bul
Bul S Gre
Sev-Arm
Mos-Sev
Lvn-Mos

I almost moved Bul-Con, but decided not to:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Well, it could have been worse.

Italy moved ION-ADR and Rom-Apu (to prep for a convoy, I'm guessing). He bounced me out of Arm and moved Con-BLA. So Con is open, which is interesting. But there's all sorts of ick otherwise. Trieste is in trouble. Greece is in trouble. I have to try to think through what Italy is going to do here and see if there's anything I can do about it.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#356 Post by Trigfea63 » Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:32 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:50 pm
I ended up with the following:
Tri S Vie-Tyo (bounces Ven-Tyo if Rom-Ven-Tyo-Boh)
Bud S Tri (was originally going to move Serbia to help with Bul, but changed to defend Tri)
Alb S Gre
Gre S Bul
Rum S Bul
Bul S Gre
Sev-Arm
Mos-Sev
Lvn-Mos

I almost moved Bul-Con, but decided not to:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Well, it could have been worse.

Italy moved ION-ADR and Rom-Apu (to prep for a convoy, I'm guessing). He bounced me out of Arm and moved Con-BLA. So Con is open, which is interesting. But there's all sorts of ick otherwise. Trieste is in trouble. Greece is in trouble. I have to try to think through what Italy is going to do here and see if there's anything I can do about it.
BUL-->CON would have been nice. Maybe you can still get away with that in the Autumn moves? I've found it difficult to predict the bot-brain in these complex situations. If I were playing Italy, here are the main attacks I'd be considering:
TYO-->BOH and advance the VEN and APU armies behind it
ADR convoy APU-->ALB supported by ION (or vice versa)
Attack Trieste with 3, and hope Austria doesn't defend with 3
ANK-->ARM with or without support, depending
MUN-->SIL (since Kiel is a fleet, no risk of losing MUN)

In my game, I built a fleet and an army. Italy destroyed the APU fleet as expected. With my APU army destroyed, and England bringing a 5th fleet to the Med (plus two armies in PIE and MAR), my strategy in the Med right now is to stop England. That may require Italy's help, we'll see how quickly Italy can recalibrate. In Russia, if Germany keeps repeating, I'll try the Ukraine move once I'm in position.

The Spr '10 moves are not interesting. I'm just going to Ready them up:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Hmm, that's less than ideal. Germany changed his orders around. England cleverly convoyed to Tuscany and is now threatening to take Venice. I expect my next moves have to be ION-->ADR, EAS-->ION with support. In Russia, give up on Ukraine but change my support-holds to save Russia in Trieste: SER support-hold TRI, ARM support-hold SEV, and BLA support-hold RUM. I'll wait a day before I enter those. I'm not sure Italy can be saved any more.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#357 Post by Trigfea63 » Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:29 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 1:32 am
In my game, I built a fleet and an army. Italy destroyed the APU fleet as expected. With my APU army destroyed, and England bringing a 5th fleet to the Med (plus two armies in PIE and MAR), my strategy in the Med right now is to stop England. That may require Italy's help, we'll see how quickly Italy can recalibrate. In Russia, if Germany keeps repeating, I'll try the Ukraine move once I'm in position.

The Spr '10 moves are not interesting. I'm just going to Ready them up:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Hmm, that's less than ideal. Germany changed his orders around. England cleverly convoyed to Tuscany and is now threatening to take Venice. I expect my next moves have to be ION-->ADR, EAS-->ION with support. In Russia, give up on Ukraine but change my support-holds to save Russia in Trieste: SER support-hold TRI, ARM support-hold SEV, and BLA support-hold RUM. I'll wait a day before I enter those. I'm not sure Italy can be saved any more.
This game is moving toward a conclusion: Maybe a 5-way draw. Maybe a 4-way, if England can take Venice and Rome. And maybe an English solo. I'm going to enter the above moves, except Serbia will move to Albania to prepare to convoy to Apulia, should that be necessary.

If England doesn't capture Venice this turn, I think we can hold the line with:
ADR support-hold VEN (maybe APU support-hold VEN is also necessary, if the German army Tyrolia gets involved; hence, the convoy)
NAP support-hold ROM
AEG support-hold ION (or AEG support-move EAS-->ION if necessary)

If England does capture Venice this turn, things get quite a bit trickier. That's the scenario where England still has a shot at the solo. I haven't fully worked it out, but it looks like a big question whether I convoy to Apulia. I kind of need to occupy Apulia, otherwise England moves there. But I kind of need to support-hold Trieste, too.

Here goes:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Yesssss! England went for Rome, not Venice. I think we're headed toward a 5-way draw. It's possible E/G will figure out to hit Venice with a force of 3 this turn, before I can convoy to Apulia, but I doubt it. It's also possible bot-Russia or bot-Italy will do something really dumb, I suppose, but those 2 have been pretty docile lately. Hopefully they don't see my moves as threatening, and both will continue to support-hold.

Yeah, I know, it's a little sad, getting excited about a draw with the bots. I do find it interesting that it's possible to cooperate with two bots to stop another bot from soloing. Rare, but possible. Is there still a Turkish solo in the works somehow? It's hard to see how, but I won't completely close off the idea, not just yet.

More in a day or so. Stay tuned for the stirring conclusion ... :-D

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#358 Post by DougJoe » Fri Oct 07, 2022 6:22 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:29 am
Here goes:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Yesssss! England went for Rome, not Venice. I think we're headed toward a 5-way draw. It's possible E/G will figure out to hit Venice with a force of 3 this turn, before I can convoy to Apulia, but I doubt it. It's also possible bot-Russia or bot-Italy will do something really dumb, I suppose, but those 2 have been pretty docile lately. Hopefully they don't see my moves as threatening, and both will continue to support-hold.

Yeah, I know, it's a little sad, getting excited about a draw with the bots. I do find it interesting that it's possible to cooperate with two bots to stop another bot from soloing. Rare, but possible. Is there still a Turkish solo in the works somehow? It's hard to see how, but I won't completely close off the idea, not just yet.

More in a day or so. Stay tuned for the stirring conclusion ... :-D
Once you've got the army in Apu, you could theoretically take Rome (using ION to tap TYS) although you probably want to do it with a fleet rather than the army that would be in Apu. Does it really get you anything? I don't know. Have to see what happens this turn.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#359 Post by DougJoe » Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:24 pm

In my game, I decided to go for Bulgaria and try to use Alb to keep Tri open for a build if by some miracle I got in. I thought Italy would go for Trieste with a convoy. I also decided to go for Sev again. I thought Bul/Rum/Gre would be okay.

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

...and I was both right and wrong. I didn't get into Bul, and I didn't lose anything, but I did get into Armenia... and Italy convoyed to Alb (which was the other thing I thought he might do) which was the better play. Surprised Smy didn't move.

So now Trieste has four on it, and Greece has three, but I at least have counter-pressure on Turkey (although it's not like it's hard to defend, it just pulls force away from Gre/Bul/Rum/Sev). It's a question of where Albania is going to go - to Trieste or to Greece - I can't defend both.

So what is Italy going to do this turn? How is he going to defend Turkey, can I use that to my advantage?

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#360 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:39 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:24 pm
In my game, I decided to go for Bulgaria and try to use Alb to keep Tri open for a build if by some miracle I got in. I thought Italy would go for Trieste with a convoy. I also decided to go for Sev again. I thought Bul/Rum/Gre would be okay.

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

...and I was both right and wrong. I didn't get into Bul, and I didn't lose anything, but I did get into Armenia... and Italy convoyed to Alb (which was the other thing I thought he might do) which was the better play. Surprised Smy didn't move.

So now Trieste has four on it, and Greece has three, but I at least have counter-pressure on Turkey (although it's not like it's hard to defend, it just pulls force away from Gre/Bul/Rum/Sev). It's a question of where Albania is going to go - to Trieste or to Greece - I can't defend both.

So what is Italy going to do this turn? How is he going to defend Turkey, can I use that to my advantage?
If Italy wants to be sure of holding the Turkish centers, it's going to take all 3 of his fleets to do it. Only the Aegean fleet can cover Smyrna. Then he'll need the other 2 to cover CON and Ankara. Maybe your best counter is to *not* try for Smyrna, and let him move the Aegean fleet there -- a weaker position. If you're up for a big risk, you could try ARM-->SYR, SEV-->ARM to set up an attack on Smyrna next turn. But then, maybe he doesn't try to cover all 3 Turkish centers, and you end up kicking yourself for not moving into the vacant Smyrna (or other). I don't have much of a feel for what Italy will do. You can't really count on him repeating his last moves. Now that you've got the A ARM, it's going to be a different calculation.

As to the Trieste/Greece guess, it looks like a 50/50. You might make the guess, defend one, and attack Albania from the other. If you guess wrong, it's a disaster of course. But if you guess right, maybe you can hold both and destroy the Albania army. Maybe that can only work 1 way: VIE, BUD, and SER support-hold TRI, TRI support GRE-->ALB, BUL-->GRE, and hope everything breaks right. If you try it the other way, SER (and BUL?) support-hold GRE, GRE support TRI-->ALB doesn't save Trieste. Maybe it destroys Albania if you guess right. But if Italy plays ION--GRE supported by ALB, then you can guess right and still lose Trieste, and the Trieste army is destroyed.

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