Austria vs Bots

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Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#301 Post by Trigfea63 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:37 pm

After all that, I've decided to just consolidate my gain, support-hold, and move EAS-->AEG. The results:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Things went about as I predicted. England went +1 at France's expense. E/G didn't figure out how to take Sweden from Russia. Russia *did* figure out to go after Vienna, and got it. So Austria's down to 1 SC, and Russia is +1. He's gonna need that additional unit in the North: Germany is coming after him hard. Even if Russia builds in Moscow, he can't defend it in the Spring. OTOH, Germany has left his home centers wide open if anyone cares to go after them. Italy moved VEN-->TYR, maybe he has in mind a hit on Munich. Not sure yet whether to build a fleet or army. Probably a fleet. But I need to consider how best to position my units for Russia's possible downfall. We can't have all the spoils going to Germany now, can we? (It's funny, at 7 SCs, Russia is the board leader. But he's still in a super-tight spot.)
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#302 Post by Trigfea63 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:38 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:37 pm
After all that, I've decided to just consolidate my gain, support-hold, and move EAS-->AEG. The results:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Things went about as I predicted. England went +1 at France's expense. E/G didn't figure out how to take Sweden from Russia. Russia *did* figure out to go after Vienna, and got it. So Austria's down to 1 SC, and Russia is +1. He's gonna need that additional unit in the North: Germany is coming after him hard. Even if Russia builds in Moscow, he can't defend it in the Spring. OTOH, Germany has left his home centers wide open if anyone cares to go after them. Italy moved VEN-->TYR, maybe he has in mind a hit on Munich. Not sure yet whether to build a fleet or army. Probably a fleet. But I need to consider how best to position my units for Russia's possible downfall. We can't have all the spoils going to Germany now, can we? (It's funny, at 7 SCs, Russia is the board leader. But he's still in a super-tight spot.)
The build will be fleet Smyrna. Even if I do decide to attack Russia, a third fleet is more helpful than a third army. We also know Russia will build army Moscow. (Literally, his only other choice is to forego the build. I doubt he'll want to do that.) We can expect Austria will remove army Bohemia. And England will build something, it doesn't matter what. Probably another fleet. And ... here's the map after the winter adjustments:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Russia built the A MOS, Austria removed the A BOH, both as expected. England actually built an army in Edinburgh. I guess England will focus on recapturing Liverpool. The army is better than the fleet for that.

For the Spr '06 moves, I'm leaning strongly toward BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, AEG support-hold GRE, and SMY-->EAS. There's some chance Russia will order BUD support-hold VIE. In that case I'd like to get Russia thinking I'll capture Serbia if he supports me. Maybe he'll support me in Autumn. Probably not, but what do I lose by trying?

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#303 Post by DougJoe » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:55 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:38 am
For the Spr '06 moves, I'm leaning strongly toward BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, AEG support-hold GRE, and SMY-->EAS. There's some chance Russia will order BUD support-hold VIE. In that case I'd like to get Russia thinking I'll capture Serbia if he supports me. Maybe he'll support me in Autumn. Probably not, but what do I lose by trying?
When I checked your game over the weekend, that was the exact same set of moves I was thinking of. I find that it's a common occurrence playing Turkey against the bots that there ends up being one center (often Tri) that you need Russia's help to get. With Germany bearing down on Moscow it'll be interesting to see what Russia does with Rum and Sev, so you may not get help, but no harm in trying, like you said. The rest of the board is such a mess so hopefully no one in the north takes over before you can break out in the south.

In my game, I had the choice between defending Trieste and Galicia. I decided to defend Gal and was rewarded... Italy went for Mar and got in because France didn't bounce him out from Spain. So I get two builds, probably two armies although I think I was considering F Tri to push towards Turkey. Otherwise around the board, France was only +1, England was +1, Germany was +2, and Russia was only +1. I like that Germany bounced Russia out of Sweden.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#304 Post by DougJoe » Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:19 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:55 pm
In my game, I had the choice between defending Trieste and Galicia. I decided to defend Gal and was rewarded... Italy went for Mar and got in because France didn't bounce him out from Spain. So I get two builds, probably two armies although I think I was considering F Tri to push towards Turkey. Otherwise around the board, France was only +1, England was +1, Germany was +2, and Russia was only +1. I like that Germany bounced Russia out of Sweden.
Ended up going with the army in Tri. Russia built in Moscow, Italy build two fleets (which I think is great) and hopefully one goes to ION.

My guess for the spring is that R/T won't coordinate over Serbia. Also, I'm guessing that Russia will play Sev S Rum and Rum S War->Gal. So I will use Serbia to tap Rum, and play Vie S Bud->Gal, Gre-AEG, Ser-Rum.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#305 Post by Trigfea63 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:48 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:19 pm
My guess for the spring is that R/T won't coordinate over Serbia. Also, I'm guessing that Russia will play Sev S Rum and Rum S War->Gal. So I will use Serbia to tap Rum, and play Vie S Bud->Gal, Gre-AEG, Ser-Rum.
These moves seem solid. If it were me, that's what I'd do (even if I hadn't checked in on your game, and seen that R/T did exactly as you predicted ;) )

In my game, I made the orders previously noted. Here are the results:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Russia took Serbia for himself. Not too surprising. Germany dislodged the newly built Russian army in Moscow. The army retreated to SEV. Russia now has a 5-unit presence in the South, and only 2 units in the North, one of which he's about to lose to Germany (Denmark). Germany left Munich wide open, but Italy didn't move there. Italy seems very focused on hitting Greece. I'm curious whether he will keep doing so now that I have three fleets on Ionian. Or will he shift to double support-holding Ionian? For Autumn '06, GRE-->ION with 2 supports, and backfill with BUL-->GRE is something to consider. England recaptured Liverpool with his new Edinburgh army.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#306 Post by DougJoe » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:54 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:48 pm

Russia took Serbia for himself. Not too surprising. Germany dislodged the newly built Russian army in Moscow. The army retreated to SEV. Russia now has a 5-unit presence in the South, and only 2 units in the North, one of which he's about to lose to Germany (Denmark). Germany left Munich wide open, but Italy didn't move there. Italy seems very focused on hitting Greece. I'm curious whether he will keep doing so now that I have three fleets on Ionian. Or will he shift to double support-holding Ionian? For Autumn '06, GRE-->ION with 2 supports, and backfill with BUL-->GRE is something to consider. England recaptured Liverpool with his new Edinburgh army.
An interesting board position, to say the least. E/G seem to have a thing (or at least aren't attacking each other) and I'm not really sure what's going on with I/R.
Surprised France backed out of Lvp, not sure where he thinks that fleet is going.
Your thought of EMS & AEG S Gre-ION, Bul-Gre, Con-Bul I think has merit. I have no idea what Italy is going to do with Albania, whether he uses it to protect Trieste or ION. I would not be surprised to see Russia go for Trieste, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia to just support/hold everything, too... and I don't think he will do it, but the possibility does exist of something annoying like Ser S Rum-Bul... so you might want to consider Con S Bul, Gre & (AEG|EMS) S (EMS|AEG)-ION? It's a little safer, but not as "guaranteed" to work against Italy given his recent moves.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#307 Post by DougJoe » Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:48 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:48 pm
DougJoe wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:19 pm
My guess for the spring is that R/T won't coordinate over Serbia. Also, I'm guessing that Russia will play Sev S Rum and Rum S War->Gal. So I will use Serbia to tap Rum, and play Vie S Bud->Gal, Gre-AEG, Ser-Rum.
These moves seem solid. If it were me, that's what I'd do (even if I hadn't checked in on your game, and seen that R/T did exactly as you predicted ;) )
Yeah, I got into Galicia, but I'm not sure now what to do with it, as the move to Ukr keeps Rumania safe with Ukr & Sev S Rum. I would not expect to be able to punch into Bul, either. My thought right now is to play Gal to Sil (hopefully German-bot understands what that's about) move Vie to Gal (supported by Bud), Ser-Rum & Gre-AEG again, setting up to have pressure on both Warsaw and Rumania, (I think) forcing Russia to have to guess which to protect.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#308 Post by DougJoe » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:00 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:48 pm
Yeah, I got into Galicia, but I'm not sure now what to do with it, as the move to Ukr keeps Rumania safe with Ukr & Sev S Rum. I would not expect to be able to punch into Bul, either. My thought right now is to play Gal to Sil (hopefully German-bot understands what that's about) move Vie to Gal (supported by Bud), Ser-Rum & Gre-AEG again, setting up to have pressure on both Warsaw and Rumania, (I think) forcing Russia to have to guess which to protect.
Well, that went about as expected...

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

A tricky bot Turkey would have played Bul-Gre, Smy H... I saw that before I readied orders but didn't think he would do that.

I don't know what Italy was thinking with ION-EMS... not sure if/how that helps me or what he's going to do with that unit.

More later.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#309 Post by Trigfea63 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:16 am

DougJoe wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:00 pm
Well, that went about as expected...

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

A tricky bot Turkey would have played Bul-Gre, Smy H... I saw that before I readied orders but didn't think he would do that.

I don't know what Italy was thinking with ION-EMS... not sure if/how that helps me or what he's going to do with that unit.

More later.
Yeah, you're stretched a bit thin. You need a breakthrough somewhere. Warsaw seems the most likely spot. Something tells me bot-Russia keeps defending Rumania.

I see what you're saying about Italy's move to EMS. It "should" be helpful since Italy is friendly. But I don't see what good it does for you, either. It might make Turkey think twice about ordering SMY-->AEG again. Is that a good thing? Until you can bring another unit to bear down there, it would be nice to be able to keep tying up all 4 Turkish units with 2 of yours. The Italian fleet might break the bounce pattern.
DougJoe wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:54 pm
An interesting board position, to say the least. E/G seem to have a thing (or at least aren't attacking each other) and I'm not really sure what's going on with I/R.
Surprised France backed out of Lvp, not sure where he thinks that fleet is going.
Your thought of EMS & AEG S Gre-ION, Bul-Gre, Con-Bul I think has merit. I have no idea what Italy is going to do with Albania, whether he uses it to protect Trieste or ION. I would not be surprised to see Russia go for Trieste, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia to just support/hold everything, too... and I don't think he will do it, but the possibility does exist of something annoying like Ser S Rum-Bul... so you might want to consider Con S Bul, Gre & (AEG|EMS) S (EMS|AEG)-ION? It's a little safer, but not as "guaranteed" to work against Italy given his recent moves.
As a reminder, here's the position: https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I've narrowed down my choices to two:
1) GRE-->ION with 2 supports, BUL-->GRE, CON--BUL, or
2) Support-hold everything

I'm inclined to go with #1, because: I think there's a good chance it will work. Italy has 3 movesets that seem reasonable (defend TRI, attack GRE again, or defend ION) and #1 works against the first 2 of those. And defend ION seems maybe the least likely of the 3. Also, I don't think Russia wants to start trouble with me right now by swiping at BUL. Russia has major problems with Germany in the North. He needs a reliable ally in the South, and I'm his only realistic option. Italy changes its bot-mind every time the wind blows.

OK, with that write-up, I've convinced myself. Time to ready up. Here are the results, including retreats and builds. Commentary later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#310 Post by DougJoe » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:36 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:16 am
Yeah, you're stretched a bit thin. You need a breakthrough somewhere. Warsaw seems the most likely spot. Something tells me bot-Russia keeps defending Rumania.
Yeah, that's sort of the read I was getting, but I might just be feeling that way because I *want* it to be true, not because it is. :-D
Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:16 am
I see what you're saying about Italy's move to EMS. It "should" be helpful since Italy is friendly. But I don't see what good it does for you, either. It might make Turkey think twice about ordering SMY-->AEG again. Is that a good thing? Until you can bring another unit to bear down there, it would be nice to be able to keep tying up all 4 Turkish units with 2 of yours. The Italian fleet might break the bounce pattern.
It's guesswork - I don't necessarily *want* to be in AEG because it leaves Gre open... I'd rather Italy be fully committed against Turkey instead of France, but you work with what you have.
Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:16 am
I've narrowed down my choices to two:
1) GRE-->ION with 2 supports, BUL-->GRE, CON--BUL, or
2) Support-hold everything

I'm inclined to go with #1, because: I think there's a good chance it will work. Italy has 3 movesets that seem reasonable (defend TRI, attack GRE again, or defend ION) and #1 works against the first 2 of those. And defend ION seems maybe the least likely of the 3. Also, I don't think Russia wants to start trouble with me right now by swiping at BUL. Russia has major problems with Germany in the North. He needs a reliable ally in the South, and I'm his only realistic option. Italy changes its bot-mind every time the wind blows.

OK, with that write-up, I've convinced myself. Time to ready up. Here are the results, including retreats and builds. Commentary later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
A very interesting result. You got ION (as Italy played the same moves again) and Russia used *Serbia* to take Trieste (which I would never have predicted from a bot). Greece is "safe" and Italy blew up his fleet, which means you now outnumber him 3 to 2, which is nice. Serbia's potentially open to you and you have options to push on Italy.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#311 Post by Trigfea63 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:54 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:36 pm
Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:16 am
I've narrowed down my choices to two:
1) GRE-->ION with 2 supports, BUL-->GRE, CON--BUL, or
2) Support-hold everything

I'm inclined to go with #1, because: I think there's a good chance it will work. Italy has 3 movesets that seem reasonable (defend TRI, attack GRE again, or defend ION) and #1 works against the first 2 of those. And defend ION seems maybe the least likely of the 3. Also, I don't think Russia wants to start trouble with me right now by swiping at BUL. Russia has major problems with Germany in the North. He needs a reliable ally in the South, and I'm his only realistic option. Italy changes its bot-mind every time the wind blows.

OK, with that write-up, I've convinced myself. Time to ready up. Here are the results, including retreats and builds. Commentary later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
A very interesting result. You got ION (as Italy played the same moves again) and Russia used *Serbia* to take Trieste (which I would never have predicted from a bot). Greece is "safe" and Italy blew up his fleet, which means you now outnumber him 3 to 2, which is nice. Serbia's potentially open to you and you have options to push on Italy.
Indeed. I never would have predicted that Russian move, either. Even with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the only bot-logic I can put together is, Russia anticipated I would order BUL-->SER again. In which case he neither gains nor loses by making this move (+1 for Trieste, -1 for Serbia) while his ally Turkey gains +1. Whereas, if he makes the more "obvious" move of BUD-->TRI with 2 supports, he neither gains nor loses (BUL-->SER cuts support) and neither does his ally. It's still odd he would expect me to order BUL-->SER when he's just captured SER. Maybe the bot-brain has been programmed with the proper R/T alliance territorial division you described earlier, Serbia falling on the Turkish side of that division.

Strategically, I'd like to avoid a scenario where R/T try to grind Italy and Italy resists with its usual stubborn defense, while in the meantime E/G finish off France and can then direct all 18 of their combined units eastward. This leads me to believe I perhaps ought to start moving now to confront Germany, even if my ally Russia would prefer I help him dismantle Italy.

My tentative moveset for Spr '07: BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, EAS support-hold ION, AEG-->CON. Serbia looks like it's mine for the taking. Russia basically handed it to me last turn, after practically begging me to move there in the earlier game-years. I also don't think he'll want to try to take it himself: He'd have to vacate Budapest or Trieste, and he won't want to do either given the German and Italian positions. If I'm right about all that, and if I don't want to get bogged down fighting Italy, then there really is no reason to cover Greece, move to Albania, or push the Ionian fleet to Tunis (or Naples/TYS/Adriatic). Just hold in the Ionian with 1 support and start moving units to a position where I can effectively counter Germany. Hmm, without it looking too anti-Russian ...

I've put the tentative orders in. Still want to mull this one a bit.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#312 Post by DougJoe » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:04 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:54 pm
Strategically, I'd like to avoid a scenario where R/T try to grind Italy and Italy resists with its usual stubborn defense, while in the meantime E/G finish off France and can then direct all 18 of their combined units eastward. This leads me to believe I perhaps ought to start moving now to confront Germany, even if my ally Russia would prefer I help him dismantle Italy.

My tentative moveset for Spr '07: BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, EAS support-hold ION, AEG-->CON. Serbia looks like it's mine for the taking. Russia basically handed it to me last turn, after practically begging me to move there in the earlier game-years. I also don't think he'll want to try to take it himself: He'd have to vacate Budapest or Trieste, and he won't want to do either given the German and Italian positions. If I'm right about all that, and if I don't want to get bogged down fighting Italy, then there really is no reason to cover Greece, move to Albania, or push the Ionian fleet to Tunis (or Naples/TYS/Adriatic). Just hold in the Ionian with 1 support and start moving units to a position where I can effectively counter Germany. Hmm, without it looking too anti-Russian ...

I've put the tentative orders in. Still want to mull this one a bit.
Assuming you get Serbia, what's your plan for your build? What are your thoughts on how you might slow Germany down?

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#313 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:29 pm

Great questions. I'm thinking the next build would have to be an army. As far as stopping Germany, my focus would be on keeping him out of SEV-RUM, either by supporting Russian forces there or (even better) by capturing them myself and holding them. A Black Sea fleet would be very helpful in either case. In the current 1907 game-year, there is some chance Germany will order GAL-->RUM in Spring and Russia won't bounce it. If so, and assuming I capture Serbia, I'll have armies in SER and BUL for the Autumn season, and I'd probably order BUL-->RUM supported by SER. If Rumania remains vacant, the decision becomes trickier.

In the medium-term, Russia will eventually lose more centers. His next removal might well be the A SEV, especially if he perceives that Turkey is more likely than Germany to gain from it. I don't see any way right now for me to stop Germany advancing in the Tyrolia-Vienna area.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#314 Post by DougJoe » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:27 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:29 pm
Great questions. I'm thinking the next build would have to be an army. As far as stopping Germany, my focus would be on keeping him out of SEV-RUM, either by supporting Russian forces there or (even better) by capturing them myself and holding them. A Black Sea fleet would be very helpful in either case. In the current 1907 game-year, there is some chance Germany will order GAL-->RUM in Spring and Russia won't bounce it. If so, and assuming I capture Serbia, I'll have armies in SER and BUL for the Autumn season, and I'd probably order BUL-->RUM supported by SER. If Rumania remains vacant, the decision becomes trickier.

In the medium-term, Russia will eventually lose more centers. His next removal might well be the A SEV, especially if he perceives that Turkey is more likely than Germany to gain from it. I don't see any way right now for me to stop Germany advancing in the Tyrolia-Vienna area.
Oh, it's the _Spring_ for some reason I thought it was Fall... oops! I thought the build phase would be after this turn. Nevertheless, what I was thinking about was the necessity of taking Rum/Sev (as you mentioned) since if you don't attack Italy you have to go somewhere, and there's only one other place to go. It might get tricky, too, if Italy somehow gets Trieste, as you don't really want Italy to get bigger, either... although he may have to deal with England at his back very shortly...

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#315 Post by DougJoe » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:44 pm

In my game, I went for Warsaw, and, instead of bouncing in AEG (maybe Italy moves EMS to Smy), I went for Bul as well:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

So, I got into Warsaw, but Russia moved to Gal, and I (unexpectedly) got into Bul, even though Italy supported me to AEG. Italy is continuing westward (Italy in the MAO in 1903!) and England attacked Germany.

So, yay, Warsaw, but Vienna is exposed and I also have to think about Budapest, too. And I can't hold Bul, Turkey can force it... maybe I should have waited until the fall to attack Warsaw... some thinking now about what I think Russia is going to do.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#316 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:48 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:44 pm
In my game, I went for Warsaw, and, instead of bouncing in AEG (maybe Italy moves EMS to Smy), I went for Bul as well:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

So, I got into Warsaw, but Russia moved to Gal, and I (unexpectedly) got into Bul, even though Italy supported me to AEG. Italy is continuing westward (Italy in the MAO in 1903!) and England attacked Germany.

So, yay, Warsaw, but Vienna is exposed and I also have to think about Budapest, too. And I can't hold Bul, Turkey can force it... maybe I should have waited until the fall to attack Warsaw... some thinking now about what I think Russia is going to do.
Wow, this is one of the more complicated positions I've seen in 1903. I won't try to fully analyze, but I'll share a few ideas and leave you the hard work of sorting them out ;)

If you think Turkey will want to cover Smyrna, then he has to choose between forcing BUL and taking a shot at Greece. Also, he won't want to leave the Black Sea if he can help it.

It seems Russia will order SEV support-hold RUM again. You can imagine RUM-->BUD with support, backfilled by SEV-->RUM, but that seems unlikely. If that's right, then Serbia is an un-cuttable support.

If BUL is dislodged, do you want it to be able to retreat somewhere? Or maybe you prefer to rebuild in case Russia breaks through at VIE or BUD?

GAL will probably go after VIE or BUD, the latter with RUM support. GAL-->WAR seems less likely, I'm not sure why. Maybe because it's backtracking. GAL could also support other Russian moves, MOS-->WAR being the most likely, but for some reason it feels like Russia will order GAL to move to one of your SCs.

SIL support-hold WAR pretty much guarantees a hold of Warsaw. It's not 100% guaranteed, but it's pretty close. Germany is unlikely to order Berlin-->SIL. What better option do you have for SIL orders?

Lots of scenarios ...

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#317 Post by Trigfea63 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:09 am

DougJoe wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:04 pm
Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:54 pm
Strategically, I'd like to avoid a scenario where R/T try to grind Italy and Italy resists with its usual stubborn defense, while in the meantime E/G finish off France and can then direct all 18 of their combined units eastward. This leads me to believe I perhaps ought to start moving now to confront Germany, even if my ally Russia would prefer I help him dismantle Italy.

My tentative moveset for Spr '07: BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, EAS support-hold ION, AEG-->CON. Serbia looks like it's mine for the taking. Russia basically handed it to me last turn, after practically begging me to move there in the earlier game-years. I also don't think he'll want to try to take it himself: He'd have to vacate Budapest or Trieste, and he won't want to do either given the German and Italian positions. If I'm right about all that, and if I don't want to get bogged down fighting Italy, then there really is no reason to cover Greece, move to Albania, or push the Ionian fleet to Tunis (or Naples/TYS/Adriatic). Just hold in the Ionian with 1 support and start moving units to a position where I can effectively counter Germany. Hmm, without it looking too anti-Russian ...

I've put the tentative orders in. Still want to mull this one a bit.
Assuming you get Serbia, what's your plan for your build? What are your thoughts on how you might slow Germany down?
Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:29 pm
Great questions. I'm thinking the next build would have to be an army. As far as stopping Germany, my focus would be on keeping him out of SEV-RUM, either by supporting Russian forces there or (even better) by capturing them myself and holding them. A Black Sea fleet would be very helpful in either case. In the current 1907 game-year, there is some chance Germany will order GAL-->RUM in Spring and Russia won't bounce it. If so, and assuming I capture Serbia, I'll have armies in SER and BUL for the Autumn season, and I'd probably order BUL-->RUM supported by SER. If Rumania remains vacant, the decision becomes trickier.

In the medium-term, Russia will eventually lose more centers. His next removal might well be the A SEV, especially if he perceives that Turkey is more likely than Germany to gain from it. I don't see any way right now for me to stop Germany advancing in the Tyrolia-Vienna area.
Alright, I'm ready to roll with BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, EAS support-hold ION, AEG-->CON for Spr '07. Here goes. Commentary later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#318 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:33 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:09 am

Alright, I'm ready to roll with BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, EAS support-hold ION, AEG-->CON for Spr '07. Here goes. Commentary later:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
An interesting result!

Italy moved away from Russia and you, looks like he wants to try to get involved in the carve up of France.
Germany didn't go for Sweden himself, but double supported Norway in... which didn't work because England didn't move Nor-Swe but instead used Nwy to try to support into NTH... and Nwy then was dislodged and had to retreat, and England did so to Germany's StP. Germany also moved his armies south and is setup to take Sev and is also in Paris...
...but England now has two armies on the continent, where are they going? Is this a prelude to an attack on Germany? What are those armies going to do otherwise, just sit there (although that wouldn't surprise me)?

You have the potential of getting 3 builds this year... crazy.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#319 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:21 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:48 pm

Wow, this is one of the more complicated positions I've seen in 1903. I won't try to fully analyze, but I'll share a few ideas and leave you the hard work of sorting them out ;)

If you think Turkey will want to cover Smyrna, then he has to choose between forcing BUL and taking a shot at Greece. Also, he won't want to leave the Black Sea if he can help it.

It seems Russia will order SEV support-hold RUM again. You can imagine RUM-->BUD with support, backfilled by SEV-->RUM, but that seems unlikely. If that's right, then Serbia is an un-cuttable support.

If BUL is dislodged, do you want it to be able to retreat somewhere? Or maybe you prefer to rebuild in case Russia breaks through at VIE or BUD?

GAL will probably go after VIE or BUD, the latter with RUM support. GAL-->WAR seems less likely, I'm not sure why. Maybe because it's backtracking. GAL could also support other Russian moves, MOS-->WAR being the most likely, but for some reason it feels like Russia will order GAL to move to one of your SCs.

SIL support-hold WAR pretty much guarantees a hold of Warsaw. It's not 100% guaranteed, but it's pretty close. Germany is unlikely to order Berlin-->SIL. What better option do you have for SIL orders?

Lots of scenarios ...
This is a pretty good synopsis of what's going on. I've seen bot Russia move F Sev->Rum to cover it when the need is dire, I'm not sure he's at that point yet, especially with Turkey hanging out in BLA. Given that, I think it's just a guessing game between Bud/Vie. I *think*(??) I would rather lose Vie than Bud, so I will have Ser S Bud, and then move Bul back to Gre. If Turkey uses all three units to take Bul, no big. If he moves AEG->Gre and uses the other two to take Bul, then I get to rebuild it.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#320 Post by DougJoe » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:31 pm

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:21 pm
This is a pretty good synopsis of what's going on. I've seen bot Russia move F Sev->Rum to cover it when the need is dire, I'm not sure he's at that point yet, especially with Turkey hanging out in BLA. Given that, I think it's just a guessing game between Bud/Vie. I *think*(??) I would rather lose Vie than Bud, so I will have Ser S Bud, and then move Bul back to Gre. If Turkey uses all three units to take Bul, no big. If he moves AEG->Gre and uses the other two to take Bul, then I get to rebuild it.
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Ok, I did not expect Gal to support a move, but he did. Russia then used Rum to help Turkey take Bul back so I didn't lose Vie or Bud... I did get bounced in Gre, though so that fleet was destroyed. (I can considered Ser S Bul-Gre but was more worried about Russia, guess I got that wrong). Italy sailed happily into Smy and gets 3 builds this turn. Russia does lose one - guessing he'll take of StP or Sev, not sure. Turkey doesn't get a build (which is good). I get two, one of which is army Vienna - not sure if I want to built a fleet in Tri or another Army... dealing with Greece this year is going to be a pain. Not sure if I lose it where I'm going to be able to make it up.

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