Austria vs Bots

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georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#161 Post by georgefc3 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:53 pm

Hmmmm.... Strange

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#162 Post by DougJoe » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:59 am

DougJoe wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:58 pm
I will try to write the "grouping" logic later today, but no guarantees.
I made some progress, but not quite there yet.

In other news, in my game I did end up convoying to Denmark and retained control of Belgium. Turkey is trying to put 5 fleets from Pie to ION, but hasn't gotten there yet. Germany is holding out well against R/T.

Build time, army London it is.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#163 Post by DougJoe » Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:14 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:59 am
DougJoe wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:58 pm
I will try to write the "grouping" logic later today, but no guarantees.
I made some progress, but not quite there yet.
...okay I was closer than I thought, apologies for the lack of formatting.

The army at Venice move to Tyrolia.The army at Rome move to Venice.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 131
The army at Venice hold.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 62
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.The army at Rome move to Venice.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 26
The army at Venice support hold to Trieste.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 19
The army at Venice move to Trieste.The army at Rome move to Venice.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 18
The army at Venice move to Tyrolia.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 16
The army at Venice hold.The army at Rome move to Naples.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 13
The army at Venice move to Trieste.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 12
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.The army at Rome move to Venice.The
fleet at Naples move to Tyrrhenian Sea.: 5
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 2

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#164 Post by Trigfea63 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:50 am

DougJoe wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:14 am
DougJoe wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:59 am
DougJoe wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:58 pm
I will try to write the "grouping" logic later today, but no guarantees.
I made some progress, but not quite there yet.
...okay I was closer than I thought, apologies for the lack of formatting.

The army at Venice move to Tyrolia.The army at Rome move to Venice.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 131
The army at Venice hold.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 62
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.The army at Rome move to Venice.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 26
The army at Venice support hold to Trieste.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 19
The army at Venice move to Trieste.The army at Rome move to Venice.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 18
The army at Venice move to Tyrolia.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 16
The army at Venice hold.The army at Rome move to Naples.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 13
The army at Venice move to Trieste.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 12
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.The army at Rome move to Venice.The
fleet at Naples move to Tyrrhenian Sea.: 5
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.The army at Rome move to Apulia.The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 2
Very interesting. Italy-bot moved Venice-->Trieste or Venice-->Tyrolia almost 60% of the time (177/304). And it combined one of those with Rome-->Venice almost 50% of the time (149/304).

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#165 Post by Trigfea63 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:08 am

T-0128 has progressed another year. Here is the position for Spring 1908 diplomacy:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

As you can see, I'm making slow but steady progress against France. I took another SC from him in 1907. Italy and Turkey are still at war. Turkey made a big blunder in Fall '07, dislodging Italy from Aegean Sea with Smyrna open for retreat. The upshot is, Italy now has the lead with 9 SCs (including SMY), Turkey is 2nd with 8, and I am 3rd with 7.

I decided to build an army and convoy to NWY in the Spring. Maybe I can leverage the 2 armies to grab Moscow from the Sultan in due course. I might actually need Moscow for the solo, as Italy is showing no signs of wanting to let me take Tunis. In the western seas, France removed the Portugal fleet, which is awesome. I'll get Portugal this year for sure, possibly also Marseilles. Or, I could instead go for Tunis right now, while Italian fleets are occupied with Turkey and the Ionian. Italy might have the upper hand, with a 4-3 fleet advantage and sitting on a Turkish home center. A small attack on Italy might help to even out (and therefore prolong) the I/T war. As long as Italy doesn't turn against me, it might be a winning play. I'm not sure.

I'm thinking to not help Germany too much. I won't attack him right now, but I don't think I want him gaining French centers, either.

I welcome any advice.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#166 Post by DougJoe » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:33 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:08 am
T-0128 has progressed another year. Here is the position for Spring 1908 diplomacy:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

As you can see, I'm making slow but steady progress against France. I took another SC from him in 1907. Italy and Turkey are still at war. Turkey made a big blunder in Fall '07, dislodging Italy from Aegean Sea with Smyrna open for retreat. The upshot is, Italy now has the lead with 9 SCs (including SMY), Turkey is 2nd with 8, and I am 3rd with 7.

I decided to build an army and convoy to NWY in the Spring. Maybe I can leverage the 2 armies to grab Moscow from the Sultan in due course. I might actually need Moscow for the solo, as Italy is showing no signs of wanting to let me take Tunis. In the western seas, France removed the Portugal fleet, which is awesome. I'll get Portugal this year for sure, possibly also Marseilles. Or, I could instead go for Tunis right now, while Italian fleets are occupied with Turkey and the Ionian. Italy might have the upper hand, with a 4-3 fleet advantage and sitting on a Turkish home center. A small attack on Italy might help to even out (and therefore prolong) the I/T war. As long as Italy doesn't turn against me, it might be a winning play. I'm not sure.

I'm thinking to not help Germany too much. I won't attack him right now, but I don't think I want him gaining French centers, either.

I welcome any advice.
Interesting board... I like the idea of the convoy to Norway. You can certainly take Moscow and it doesn't really have any impact on the Italy/Turkey fracas. As to whether or not you go after Italy, that's a good question... my gut feel is to leave Italy alone for now (at least this year) but that's just me - I can't even say why, really.

georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#167 Post by georgefc3 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:41 pm

I'm thinking to not help Germany too much. I won't attack him right now, but I don't think I want him gaining French centers, either.

I welcome any advice.
Remember I am a relative newbie at this, so consider that. My advice is to go for Marseilles and Portugal this turn. Italy will think of you as a friend, as will Germany. With two builds you can either push further into the Med or stab Germany or whatever.

You will then be in a position to pick your next target. If Italy really gets the upper hand in the war with Turkey you can go against him. With enough armies though your 18th center could be Munich.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#168 Post by DougJoe » Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:34 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:50 am
Very interesting. Italy-bot moved Venice-->Trieste or Venice-->Tyrolia almost 60% of the time (177/304). And it combined one of those with Rome-->Venice almost 50% of the time (149/304).
Yeah, very interesting. Here's an (automated) reformatting of the program's output, not sorted by counts (although I could easily do that in the code, too... hmm):
A Ven->Tri. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->ION. : 18
A Ven hold. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 62
A Ven->Tyo. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->ION. : 132
A Ven->Tyo. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 16
A Ven->Pie. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->ION. : 26
A Ven support hold to Tri. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 19
A Ven->Pie. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->TYS. : 5
A Ven->Tri. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 12
A Ven hold. A Rom->Nap. F Nap->ION. : 13
A Ven->Pie. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 2

The code is some of the *ugliest* code I've ever written but it works. More to come.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#169 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:05 am

Here are some additional stats on Italian openings. In an appendix to their paper on advanced AI diplomacy bots, the Meta AI team included some stats on each power's openings. Here are the stats for Italy:

ITALY avg_utility=0.13444
probs bp_p avg_u orders
0.41740 0.19181 0.13609 (’F NAP - ION’, ’A ROM - APU’, ’A VEN S F TRI’)
0.25931 0.07652 0.12465 (’F NAP - ION’, ’A ROM - VEN’, ’A VEN - TRI’)
0.13084 0.29814 0.12831 (’F NAP - ION’, ’A ROM - VEN’, ’A VEN - TYR’)
0.09769 0.03761 0.13193 (’F NAP - ION’, ’A ROM - APU’, ’A VEN - TRI’)
0.09412 0.16622 0.13539 (’F NAP - ION’, ’A ROM - APU’, ’A VEN H’)
0.00034 0.05575 0.11554 (’F NAP - ION’, ’A ROM - APU’, ’A VEN - PIE’)
0.00028 0.13228 0.10953 (’F NAP - ION’, ’A ROM - VEN’, ’A VEN - PIE’)
0.00000 0.04167 0.05589 (’F NAP H’, ’A ROM H’, ’A VEN H’)

"probs" = probability of the advanced bot making the indicated opening moves
"bp_p" = probability of a human webDip player making the moves (based on data from over 46,000 webDip games)
"avg_u" = average predicted sum-of-squares utility of the moves

These advanced bots are not the bots we've been playing against. They are very strong gunboat diplomacy players, stronger than most human players, though they don't understand endgame defensive strategy or stalemate lines. They've been tested on webDip under the names yolo5 and fairplay (in Classic gunboat), and Fairbot (in FvA). Maybe other usernames that haven't been disclosed yet.

Interestingly, the advanced AI bot attacks Austria less often than our bots do. It plays Venice-->Trieste, Rome-->Venice 26% of the time, and Venice-->Tyrolia, Rome-->Venice 13% of the time. That is, an opening attack on Austria 39% of the time, compared with 50% for our bots per Doug's stats. It plays the Austria-friendly Venice hold, Rome-->Apulia 42% of the time, compared with 20% for our bots.

The full Meta paper can be found here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3059

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#170 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:20 am

I also have an update on T-0128. Here is the current map, after the Winter 1908 adjustments:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

1908 was a good year for humanity. Your English correspondent took 2 SCs from France. No other power gained or lost. Turkey and Italy are still at war, and traded SCs. That puts me tied for first with Italy at 9 SCs. Turkey is now third with 8. Germany has 6.

Germany finally, finally, finally managed to break into France, capturing Burgundy. (Woo-hoo!) Italy is heading west now for real, but he's too late. He's not strong enough to fight Turkey and me at the same time. I will take and hold Tunis. That will put me in a very similar position to Doug's in his Identify game. It will be a matter of slowly and gently prying centers from Germany, while preventing eastern powers from advancing to MUN-BER before I do. I also have a side gig going in the StP-Livonia area. It looks like I can capture Moscow this year, and possibly Sevastapol as well. It's unclear whether I can hold them, but maybe I can.

More to follow in a day or so on specific moves for 1909.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#171 Post by Trigfea63 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:14 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:20 am
I also have an update on T-0128. Here is the current map, after the Winter 1908 adjustments:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

1908 was a good year for humanity. Your English correspondent took 2 SCs from France. No other power gained or lost. Turkey and Italy are still at war, and traded SCs. That puts me tied for first with Italy at 9 SCs. Turkey is now third with 8. Germany has 6.

Germany finally, finally, finally managed to break into France, capturing Burgundy. (Woo-hoo!) Italy is heading west now for real, but he's too late. He's not strong enough to fight Turkey and me at the same time. I will take and hold Tunis. That will put me in a very similar position to Doug's in his Identify game. It will be a matter of slowly and gently prying centers from Germany, while preventing eastern powers from advancing to MUN-BER before I do. I also have a side gig going in the StP-Livonia area. It looks like I can capture Moscow this year, and possibly Sevastapol as well. It's unclear whether I can hold them, but maybe I can.

More to follow in a day or so on specific moves for 1909.
Here are my tentative Spring 1909 orders:
EDI-->NTH
LON-->BRE by convoy
POR-->SPA (sc) supported by MAO
MAR support-hold GoL
StP-->MOS supported by LVN

These orders imply simultaneous conflicts with Italy and Turkey. I'd prefer not to have to do that, although it seems manageable as long as Germany doesn't turn on me. I don't really have anywhere else to go without bumping into Germany. I need to get moving on Tunis before Italy locks it down, and Moscow is my best shot at a SC this year.

I thought about switching the Moscow attack to come from Livonia with StP support. But the Livonia army apparently caused Germany to convoy back to Prussia from Sweden. I like that army in Prussia a lot more than I like it in Sweden. So I think it's better to stay in Livonia for 1 more turn at least. I don't expect Germany will attack me and cut the support.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#172 Post by DougJoe » Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:07 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:14 am

Here are my tentative Spring 1909 orders:
EDI-->NTH
LON-->BRE by convoy
POR-->SPA (sc) supported by MAO
MAR support-hold GoL
StP-->MOS supported by LVN

These orders imply simultaneous conflicts with Italy and Turkey. I'd prefer not to have to do that, although it seems manageable as long as Germany doesn't turn on me. I don't really have anywhere else to go without bumping into Germany. I need to get moving on Tunis before Italy locks it down, and Moscow is my best shot at a SC this year.

I thought about switching the Moscow attack to come from Livonia with StP support. But the Livonia army apparently caused Germany to convoy back to Prussia from Sweden. I like that army in Prussia a lot more than I like it in Sweden. So I think it's better to stay in Livonia for 1 more turn at least. I don't expect Germany will attack me and cut the support.
This seems reasonable. I was actually kind of surprised that Italy went hard west like that.

georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#173 Post by georgefc3 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 1:52 pm

Maybe it is too early to say "grats" but it looks like you are now winning in this game!!

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#174 Post by DougJoe » Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:35 pm

Here are the stats for all the powers for the bots in my games:

Austria:
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Bud. A Bud->Ser. : 33
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tri. A Bud->Ser. : 91
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 119
F Tri->Ven. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 17
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tyo. A Bud->Gal. : 10
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tyo. A Bud->Tri. : 10
F Tri->Ven. A Vie->Tyo. A Bud->Gal. : 14
F Tri->Ven. A Vie->Tyo. A Bud->Rum. : 6
F Tri H. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 2
F Tri S H to Ven. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 2
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Rum. : 1
F Tri H. A Vie->Bud. A Bud->Ser. : 1

England:
F Lon->NTH. F Edi->NWS. A Lvp->Edi. : 73
F Lon->ENC. F Edi->NTH. A Lvp->Yor. : 76
F Lon->NTH. F Edi->NWS. A Lvp->Yor. : 131
F Lon->ENC. F Edi->NTH. A Lvp->Wal. : 16
F Lon->ENC. F Edi->NTH. A Lvp->Edi. : 5
F Lon->ENC. F Edi->NWS. A Lvp->Yor. : 3
F Lon->NTH. F Edi->NWS. A Lvp->Wal. : 2

France:
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles S->Bur from Par. : 65
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Pic. A Marseilles->Spain. : 53
F Bre->ENC. A Par->Pic. A Marseilles->Bur. : 17
F Bre->ENC. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles->Spain. : 15
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles->Spain. : 88
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Gas. A Marseilles->Bur. : 5
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Pic. A Marseilles->Bur. : 19
F Bre->ENC. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles S->Bur from Par. : 11
F Bre->ENC. A Par->Pic. A Marseilles->Spain. : 19
F Bre->ENC. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles->Pie. : 6
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles->Pie. : 6
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles H. : 1
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Pic. A Marseilles H. : 1

Germany:
A Mun->Ruhr. F Kie->Den. A Ber->Kie. : 163
A Mun->Ruhr. F Kie->Holland. A Ber->Kie. : 62
A Mun->Bur. F Kie->Holland. A Ber->Kie. : 15
A Mun->Bur. F Kie->Den. A Ber->Kie. : 39
A Mun->Bur. F Kie->Holland. A Ber->Sil. : 2
A Mun->Tyo. F Kie->Holland. A Ber->Sil. : 14
A Mun H. F Kie->Holland. A Ber->Kie. : 1
A Mun H. F Kie->Den. A Ber->Kie. : 5
A Mun->Ruhr. F Kie->Den. A Ber->Sil. : 5

Italy:
A Ven->Tri. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->ION. : 18
A Ven H. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 62
A Ven->Tyo. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->ION. : 133
A Ven->Tyo. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 16
A Ven->Pie. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->ION. : 26
A Ven S H to Tri. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 19
A Ven->Pie. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->TYS. : 5
A Ven->Tri. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 12
A Ven H. A Rom->Nap. F Nap->ION. : 13
A Ven->Pie. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 2

Russia:
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Gal. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->BLA. : 204
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Ukr. A Mos->StP. F Sev->BLA. : 10
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Gal. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->Rum. : 29
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Gal. A Mos->StP. F Sev->BLA. : 24
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Ukr. A Mos->StP. F Sev->Rum. : 4
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War H. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->BLA. : 7
F StP (South Coast)->Fin. A War->Gal. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->BLA. : 7
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Gal. A Mos->StP. F Sev->Rum. : 6
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War H. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->Rum. : 11
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Gal. A Mos->Sev. F Sev->Rum. : 4

Turkey:
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Con. F Ank->BLA. : 219
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Arm. F Ank->BLA. : 66
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Ank. F Ank->Con. : 5
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Arm. F Ank->Con. : 4
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Ank. F Ank->BLA. : 2
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna H. F Ank->Con. : 5
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Con. F Ank H. : 2
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna H. F Ank->BLA. : 2
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Con. F Ank S->BLA from Sev. : 1

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#175 Post by DougJoe » Sat Aug 20, 2022 11:38 pm

..and here are the openings I have played for each power (not including my current England game)

Austria:
F Tri->Ven. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 2
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 22
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tyo. A Bud->Ser. : 13
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tri. A Bud->Ser. : 12
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Bud. A Bud->Ser. : 2

England:
F Lon->ENC. F Edi->NTH. A Lvp->Wal. : 1
F Lon->NTH. F Edi->NWS. A Lvp->Edi. : 17
F Lon->ENC. F Edi->NTH. A Lvp->Yor. : 33

France:
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Gas. A Marseilles->Spain. : 27
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Gas. A Marseilles H. : 5
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Gas. A Marseilles->Bur. : 15
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles S->Bur from Par. : 4

Germany:
A Mun->Ruhr. F Kie->Den. A Ber->Kie. : 40
A Mun->Tyo. F Kie->Den. A Ber->Kie. : 2
A Mun->Bur. F Kie->Den. A Ber->Kie. : 6
A Mun->Bur. F Kie->Holland. A Ber->Kie. : 1
A Mun->Ruhr. F Kie->Holland. A Ber->Kie. : 2

Italy:
A Ven->Apu. A Rom->Ven. F Nap->ION. : 46
A Ven H. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 3
A Ven S H to Tri. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 1
A Ven->Rom. A Rom->Apu. F Nap->ION. : 1

Russia:
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Gal. A Mos->StP. F Sev->BLA. : 1
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Ukr. A Mos->StP. F Sev->BLA. : 10
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Gal. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->BLA. : 12
F StP (South Coast)->Fin. A War->Gal. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->BLA. : 13
F StP (South Coast)->Fin. A War->Ukr. A Mos->StP. F Sev->BLA. : 12
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Liv. A Mos->Ukr. F Sev->BLA. : 1
F StP (South Coast)->Gulf of Bothnia. A War->Ukr. A Mos->StP. F Sev->Rum. : 1
F StP (South Coast)->Fin. A War->Gal. A Mos->StP. F Sev->Rum. : 1

Turkey:
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Con. F Ank->BLA. : 2
A Con->Bul. A Smyrna->Ank. F Ank->Con. : 49

georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#176 Post by georgefc3 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:15 am

Doug writes:

France:
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Gas. A Marseilles->Spain. : 27
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Gas. A Marseilles H. : 5
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Gas. A Marseilles->Bur. : 15
F Bre->MAO. A Par->Bur. A Marseilles S->Bur from Par. : 4
This is pretty interesting. Can you discuss more about your moves? See above. When playing France what if Germany moves to Burgundy? I normally play your second favorite MAO, GAS and BUR. If Germany moves to Burgundy you bounce and still get two builds. Does this make sense?

For Austria... you have this (will hit submit and quote your moves...)

georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#177 Post by georgefc3 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:21 am

For Austria (again)
Austria:
F Tri->Ven. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 2
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 22
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tyo. A Bud->Ser. : 13
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tri. A Bud->Ser. : 12
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Bud. A Bud->Ser. : 2
It seems that if you get an alliance with Italy you will nearly always win. You have shown statistically that Italy stabs you way more than is smart. But in my Austria game I think I have shown pretty conclusively that you will get an easy win when allied with Italy. (Again, maybe not 100% and also assuming you are playing stupid bots on webdiplomacy.com).

If you agree with this (and maybe you don't) then wouldn't it be best to hope and pray for an Italian alliance and do "normal" moves like in my game?

Thoughts and comments?

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#178 Post by Trigfea63 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 5:50 pm

georgefc3 wrote:
Sun Aug 21, 2022 11:21 am
For Austria (again)
Austria:
F Tri->Ven. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 2
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Gal. A Bud->Ser. : 22
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tyo. A Bud->Ser. : 13
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Tri. A Bud->Ser. : 12
F Tri->Albania. A Vie->Bud. A Bud->Ser. : 2
It seems that if you get an alliance with Italy you will nearly always win. You have shown statistically that Italy stabs you way more than is smart. But in my Austria game I think I have shown pretty conclusively that you will get an easy win when allied with Italy. (Again, maybe not 100% and also assuming you are playing stupid bots on webdiplomacy.com).

If you agree with this (and maybe you don't) then wouldn't it be best to hope and pray for an Italian alliance and do "normal" moves like in my game?

Thoughts and comments?
George, I think your idea to open strong to Serbia and Albania is a good one. I'm not sure I have the full data to agree or not that it is the best approach. I am curious what Doug thinks about it. I have also experimented with this alternative opening for Austria:

F Tri->Alb, A Vie->Gal, A Bud->Tri

You only get 1 build in 1901, but you protect yourself against Italy opening hostile, especially against Ven->Tri. So far, the two times I've used it, Italy did not attack, and I managed to win both games even with the slower start. Here is one example:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?game ... #gamePanel

georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#179 Post by georgefc3 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 8:48 pm

Trig writes:

George, I think your idea to open strong to Serbia and Albania is a good one. I'm not sure I have the full data to agree or not that it is the best approach. I am curious what Doug thinks about it. I have also experimented with this alternative opening for Austria:

F Tri->Alb, A Vie->Gal, A Bud->Tri

You only get 1 build in 1901, but you protect yourself against Italy opening hostile, especially against Ven->Tri. So far, the two times I've used it, Italy did not attack, and I managed to win both games even with the slower start. Here is one example:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?game ... #gamePanel
I am not sure that that this really solves the problem with Italy. I did some checking from earlier in the thread. Doug reports 18 games where Italy moves to Trieste. I think the big threat from Italy is moving to Tyrolia and Rome. If I remember correctly Italy opened this way in 137 or 147 games. In other words, it is way more common.

I think I would rather hope and pray for an Italian alliance. According to the statistics you could reasonably hope for a win with at least 40% of the games. If Italy attacks and you (somehow) survive that would up that rate to what? Maybe 50%.

The point here is that there is an optimum strategy. If you agree with that then every country (France, Austria, etc) should open the same way, every time.

From what I am seeing there are different things he is trying. Some of these will work, others will work less often. But clearly the bots are stupid and even with a less then optimal opening you can end up winning.

georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#180 Post by georgefc3 » Sun Aug 21, 2022 9:08 pm

Changing subjects just a little, this is what I think France's optimal strategy is.

MAO
GAS
BUR

The army moving to Burgundy will bounce Germany if he moves there. The army in Gascony can cover Brest in the fall if necessary. France should get two builds. I suggest that the best strategy would be to build an army in Paris and a Fleet in Marseilles. This is not overtly anti-England.

With luck Germany and France will start fighting. And the fleets can make their way back to English waters....

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