Bot openings

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Nescio
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Bot openings

#1 Post by Nescio » Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:21 pm

Recently I wondered which openings the bots prefer and whether individual bots favour different moves. Therefore I went through the (100) bot games I've completed so far and wrote down the Spring 1901 orders. (Yes, I realize it's a quite small sample, yet it's better than nothing.)
Here are the results; feel free to take advantage of it.
If anyone else has analysed bot starts, please do share your data.

Code: Select all

C: Cortana
D: Data
J: Jane
K: Kestas Bot
S: Skynet
Z: Zultar Bot
England:

Code: Select all

               C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
Nth, Edi, Eng:   ,   ,   ,  3,   ,   ;  3
Nth, Wal, Eng:   ,   ,  1,  2,  1,  4; 
Nth, Yor, Eng:  4,  2,  1,  6,  1,  2; 16
Nwg, Edi, Nth:  2,  2,  6,  5,  2,  4; 21
Nwg, Wal, Nth:   ,   ,  1,   ,   ,   ;  1
Nwg, Yor, Nth:  5,  2,  4, 25,  2,  2; 40

        total: 11,  6, 12, 40,  7,  9; 85
France:

Code: Select all

               C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
Eng, Bur, Pic:   ,   ,  1,   ,   ,  1;  3
Eng, Bur, Pie:   ,   ,   ,  1,   ,   ;  1
Eng, S  , Bur:   ,  1,  1,   ,   ,   ;  2
Eng, Spa, Bur:   ,  1,  1,  3,   ,  1;  6
Eng, Spa, Pic:  1,   ,   ,  2,   ,  4;  7
MAO, Bur, Gas:   ,   ,  1,   ,  2,  1;  4
MAO, Bur, Pic:  1,   ,  1,   ,  1,  4;  7
MAO, H  , Pic:   ,   ,   ,  1,   ,   ;  1
MAO, S  , Bur:   ,  4,  5,  4,  1,  5; 19
MAO, Spa, Bur:  2,  3,  2,  2,  3, 12; 24
MAO, Spa, Pic:   ,  2,  1,  3,  2,  7; 15

        total:  5, 11, 13, 16,  9, 35; 89
Italy:

Code: Select all

               C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
Ion, Apu, Pie:   ,  1,   ,   ,  2,   ;  3
Ion, Apu, Tyr:  1,   ,   ,   ,  1,   ;  2
Ion, Apu, H  :   ,  4,  3,  4,  7,  4; 22
Ion, Nap, H  :   ,   ,  3,  1,  1,   ;  5
Ion, Ven, Pie:  2,  1,  1,   ,  2,  1;  7
Ion, Ven, Tri:  2,   ,  1,   ,  3,  1;  7
Ion, Ven, Tyr:  1,  4,  2,  5, 21,  7; 40
TyS, Ven, Pie:  1,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ;  1
TyS, Ven, Tyr:   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,  1;  1

        total:  7, 10, 10, 10, 37, 14; 88
Germany:

Code: Select all

               C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
Kie, Den, Bur:  1,  1,  4,   ,  3,  3; 12
Kie, Den, H  :   ,  1,   ,   ,   ,   ; 1
Kie, Den, Ruh:  8,  5, 18,  4, 10,  7; 52
Kie, Den, Tyr:  1,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ; 1
Kie, Hol, Bur:   ,  1,  2,   ,  1,   ; 4
Kie, Hol, Ruh:   ,   ,  7,  1,  5,   ; 13
Sil, Hol, Bur:  1,   ,  1,   ,  1,   ; 3
Sil, Hol, Tyr:   ,  2,  1,   ,  1,   ; 4

        total: 11, 10, 33,  5, 21, 10; 90
Austria:

Code: Select all

               C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
Gal, Alb, Tyr:   ,  1,   ,  1,  1,  2; 5
Gal, Ven, Tyr:  1,  1,  2,   ,   ,  1; 5
Rum, Ven, Tyr:   ,   ,  1,   ,   ,   ; 1
Ser, Alb, Bud:   ,  1,  2,  1,   ,  2; 6
Ser, Alb, Gal: 11,  7,  2,  3,  4,  3; 30
Ser, Alb, Tri:  8,  1,  2,  5,  3,  3; 22
Ser, H  , Gal:  1,   ,  1,   ,   ,   ; 2
Ser, Ven, Gal:   ,  1,  2,  1,  1,  1; 6
Tri, Alb, Tyr:   ,  1,   ,   ,  1,   ; 2

        total: 21, 13, 12, 11, 10, 12; 79
Turkey:

Code: Select all

               C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
Bla, Bul, Arm: 10,  8,  1,  1,  4,  2; 26
Bla, Bul, Con: 21, 11,  7,  8,  5, 10; 62
Bla, Bul, H  :  1,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ;  1
Con, Bul, Arm:   ,   ,  1,   ,   ,   ;  1

        total: 32, 19,  9,  9,  9, 12; 90
Russia:

Code: Select all

                    C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
StP, Bot, Bla, Gal:  1,  2,   ,  1,   ,   ;  4
StP, Bot, Bla, Ukr:   ,  1,  1,   ,   ,  1;  3
StP, Bot, Rum, Gal:   ,   ,   ,   ,  1,   ;  1
StP, Bot, Rum, Ukr:  1,   ,   ,   ,  1,   ;  2
Sev, Bot, Rum, Gal:   ,  2,   ,   ,   ,   ;  2
Ukr, Bot, Bla, Gal:  9, 22,  9,  6,  5,  5; 56
Ukr, Bot, Bla, H  :   ,  2,   ,   ,   ,   ;  2
Ukr, Bot, Rum, Gal:  1,  2,  1,  1,   ,  2;  7
Ukr, Bot, Rum, H  :  1,   ,   ,  1,   ,   ;  2

             total: 13, 31, 11,  9,  7,  8; 79
6

Claesar
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Re: Bot openings

#2 Post by Claesar » Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:53 pm

We always consider Turkey the least flexible nation in terms of opening moves (and it's true). However, from this data you could also argue it's Russia due to having the highest percentage for a single moveset.
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bartogian
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Re: Bot openings

#3 Post by bartogian » Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:14 pm

Is anyone else disturbed by the poor addition in the English tables?

(also some of those German and Austrian openings are insane)

Nescio
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Re: Bot openings

#4 Post by Nescio » Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:51 pm

Claesar wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:53 pm
We always consider Turkey the least flexible nation in terms of opening moves (and it's true). However, from this data you could also argue it's Russia due to having the highest percentage for a single moveset.
You seem to be using an unusual definition of flexibility. Perhaps you meant predictability?
As for the theoretically possible openings, see the Diplomacy Openings Library.

By the way, one shouldn't solely look at the opening set counts; looking at individual moves might make more sense. For instance, France uses many different opening sets, but if you look at similarities, you'll see France moves an army to Bur 66 out of 89 times, (which might explain why Germany prefers moving to Ruh, 65 out of 90 times).
Furthermore, I'd like to reiterate it's a quite small sample. The numbers and perceived patterns might be different when one looks at e.g. ten thousand games.
bartogian wrote:
Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:14 pm
Is anyone else disturbed by the poor addition in the English tables?
Yes, I see now what you mean. The trouble is this forum doesn't allow attaching files to forum posts, nor inserting screenshots, therefore I had to copy and paste the data and manually format it in this limited web editor. Apparently I missed a comma, which messed up the table. Unfortunately I can't edit my previous post either, so here it is again, now with the erroneously deleted comma reinstated:

Code: Select all

               C , D , J , K , S , Z ; total
Nth, Edi, Eng:   ,   ,   ,  3,   ,   ;  3
Nth, Wal, Eng:   ,   ,   ,  1,  2,  1;  4
Nth, Yor, Eng:  4,  2,  1,  6,  1,  2; 16
Nwg, Edi, Nth:  2,  2,  6,  5,  2,  4; 21
Nwg, Wal, Nth:   ,   ,  1,   ,   ,   ;  1
Nwg, Yor, Nth:  5,  2,  4, 25,  2,  2; 40

        total: 11,  6, 12, 40,  7,  9; 85
bartogian wrote:
Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:14 pm
(also some of those German and Austrian openings are insane)
Well, the bots used those openings, so I guess they have some good reason for it, otherwise they wouldn't use them. I believe they learn by trial and error. Sometimes unexpected might actually be more effective in practice than it might seem at first glance.
Although I don't know which openings you consider “insane”, I'm guessing you're referring to the Tyr openings: given how frequently Italy opens into Tyr, opening into Tyr as Austria (or Germany) to counter that can make sense.

DougJoe
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Re: Bot openings

#5 Post by DougJoe » Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:04 am

I don't know if you really need to split out each individual bot... from what I remember reading somewhere on the forum way back, there are only two possible "personalities" that can be assigned to each of the bots at the beginning each game. Zultar Bot gets assigned one of those two personalities, Skynet gets assigned one of those two personalities, and so on. Might make your bookkeeping simpler.
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DougJoe
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Re: Bot openings

#6 Post by DougJoe » Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:18 am

This is part of what I remember reading about the bot personalities:

https://www.webdiplomacy.net/contrib/ph ... 75#p156075
1

Claesar
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Re: Bot openings

#7 Post by Claesar » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:47 am

Nescio wrote:
Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:51 pm
Claesar wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:53 pm
We always consider Turkey the least flexible nation in terms of opening moves (and it's true). However, from this data you could also argue it's Russia due to having the highest percentage for a single moveset.
You seem to be using an unusual definition of flexibility. Perhaps you meant predictability?
As for the theoretically possible openings, see the Diplomacy Openings Library.
No, I meant what I said but can understand if "predictability" works better for you to get my point across.

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