Polar Vortex

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Octavious
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Re: Polar Vortex

#21 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:34 am

nesdunk14 wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:17 am
MajorMitchell wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:20 am
When I see player names like nesdunk14 I am inclined to wonder if disengaged Millennials playing with IT devices or those persons with memory retention issues are using player names to record passwords for bank accounts, security alarms etc.
It's my name backwards.
Amateur. I use Octavious but cunningly leave out the u.
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Kay_B
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Re: Polar Vortex

#22 Post by Kay_B » Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:32 pm

nesdunk14 wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:08 pm
Octavious wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:44 pm
Where is this impact most obvious? From the perspective of the UK any significant change in rainfall patterns has yet to become apparent, with the only real indication of climate change being an increase in the rate of sea level rise.
The UK has seen a dramatic rise in average temperatures, and a severe increase in heat wave frequency since the industrial revolution, especially over the past few decades. In the last thirty years alone, sea temperatures have risen an average of 0.7 C. The changing of ocean currents will have the largest impact on Northern Europe, and exactly how the Gulf Stream will change is yet to be determined, but any scenario involves dramatic changes in weather patterns.
Have you noticed an increase in the frequency and scale of forest fires? The wildest drought, high temperature, rare precipitation - as a result, the fire covers vast territories, plants die, animals and birds die. The weather is going crazy. In winter, the mud is knee-deep, in the spring frosts and blizzards begin. It's like the seasons are shifting. If this is not noticeable in the UK, then in some regions it is very striking.

Octavious
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Re: Polar Vortex

#23 Post by Octavious » Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:33 pm

Yeah, we don't really get that in the UK. You get hints at it possibly happening, but nothing that stands out against natural fluxuation. Fowler and Wilby wrote a good paper on the subject where they state they don't expect to see anything conclusive until around 2050. You get the occasional drought, but it was ever thus. Indeed, the droughts of the 19th century are believed to have been worse than those in living memory. There's a paper on that I've quoted before... ah yes

Marsh, T, Cole, G, Wilby, R (2007) Major droughts in England and Wales 1800–2006. Weather 62 (4): 87–93.

Even with more concrete evidence like rising sea levels it's difficult for the public to get a good feel for what's happening. The UK tidal range is pretty extreme, well over 10 metres in places, and your maximum high tide depending on the major lunar cycle will dwarf any increase due to climate change. For the next several years tidal flooding will become a smaller and smaller issue before the cycle reverses again.

So yeah, it's hard to notice global warming here. For most of those who do, it's just weather.

dargorygel
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Re: Polar Vortex

#24 Post by dargorygel » Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:56 pm

Michael Crichton wrote an interesting novel on this subject, "State of Fear." Without taking sides on the "is climate change real? is it human-caused? is it a political thing?" issues... he proposes that we really need more data. His fiction is written in a very NON-fiction presentation. For instance, he introduces charts and graphs by having two characters sitting at a coffee table and showing each other graphs, which are shown in the book.

His point is similar to Octy's, if I am reading him correctly. There is a lot of data that has not been understood. BOTH (all?) sides jump to the conclusions we like. And both (all?) sides don't listen.
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nesdunk14
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Re: Polar Vortex

#25 Post by nesdunk14 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:10 pm

dargorygel wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:56 pm
Michael Crichton wrote an interesting novel on this subject, "State of Fear." Without taking sides on the "is climate change real? is it human-caused? is it a political thing?" issues... he proposes that we really need more data. His fiction is written in a very NON-fiction presentation. For instance, he introduces charts and graphs by having two characters sitting at a coffee table and showing each other graphs, which are shown in the book.

His point is similar to Octy's, if I am reading him correctly. There is a lot of data that has not been understood. BOTH (all?) sides jump to the conclusions we like. And both (all?) sides don't listen.
I'm not sure if you're aware of the controversy surrounding this novel but it is not looked upon kindly by the scientific community. There is no debate about climate change, there are no "sides." Octavious' point is that in the UK the effects of climate change are not immediately obvious to the average citizen. In many other places around the world this is not the case. Crichton's "analysis" is representative of the so-called rationalist perspective which has seen such a rise in popularity in the past decade and is linked intrinsically to the alt-right. Casting doubt upon established scientific fact in the name of skepticism is only doing harm to the future of our planet and the human race.

Kay_B
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Re: Polar Vortex

#26 Post by Kay_B » Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:35 pm

Octavious wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:33 pm
Yeah, we don't really get that in the UK. You get hints at it possibly happening, but nothing that stands out against natural fluxuation. Fowler and Wilby wrote a good paper on the subject where they state they don't expect to see anything conclusive until around 2050. You get the occasional drought, but it was ever thus. Indeed, the droughts of the 19th century are believed to have been worse than those in living memory. There's a paper on that I've quoted before... ah yes

Marsh, T, Cole, G, Wilby, R (2007) Major droughts in England and Wales 1800–2006. Weather 62 (4): 87–93.

Even with more concrete evidence like rising sea levels it's difficult for the public to get a good feel for what's happening. The UK tidal range is pretty extreme, well over 10 metres in places, and your maximum high tide depending on the major lunar cycle will dwarf any increase due to climate change. For the next several years tidal flooding will become a smaller and smaller issue before the cycle reverses again.

So yeah, it's hard to notice global warming here. For most of those who do, it's just weather.
In the UK, climate change may not be as noticeable thanks to the Gulf Stream. But there are forecasts that if the glaciers continue to melt further, the temperature of the current will drop, which will adversely affect the climate and, above all, the changes will be noticed by the countries, past which the water flows pass.

flash2015
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Re: Polar Vortex

#27 Post by flash2015 » Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:12 pm

<rant>

The problem with the global warming discussion is that it has changed from a science discussion to a tribal one. Whether you believe it is a concern or not largely comes down to the tribe you belong to, which is nuts.

The global warming story is very alluring because it makes things so simple - "if we don't do something the world is going to end". And a lot of the more extreme global warming adherents are essentially telegraphing an ideology that ultimately "wealth is bad". It is wrong to have a big house, it is wrong to enjoy international travel...the ONLY way that we can save the world is if everyone is willing to live poor. This is of course what the other tribe sees and of course is vehemently against it.

If people really want to get everyone on board, they have to drop this "wealth is bad" dogma. I am a big fan of what people like Elon Must does (for all his faults), you get more people to sign on if you can make the new tech sexy too. I feel that "global warming" anyway vastly oversimplifies the environmental and other challenges we face (e.g. a lot of the fossil fuel reservers are in despotic countries, the longer we keep using them the more environmentally damaging using them will becomes - see Alberta tar sands, how the hell do we make recycling actually work?), There are plenty of other reasons to work to get off fossil fuels, focusing only on one of them (which hasn't lived up to predictions so far) feels like it may ultimately be counterproductive to the overall sustainability cause.

</rant>

MajorMitchell
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Re: Polar Vortex

#28 Post by MajorMitchell » Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:45 am

..sighs, (thinks, En Avante with a Daffy rant)...
Well done flash2015 (sighs, another player name with bicycle lock code?)
For venting frustrations with public discussion of global warming, there's several truisms in your rant, particularly those about the tribalism & poisonous disinformation & Agenda shaped Information to suit ideological, Political or Commercial purposes.
There is a "wealth and technology" hating rabble and their existence and nonsense is used as weaponised misrepresentation of other more moderate groups who criticise gross consumption and excess that has significant environmental impact, an example, the use of disposable one time use plastics etc, do we mandate the use of bio degradable materials and prohibit non bio degradable materials for packaging in economies and have environmental tariffs on imported non bio degradable packaging?
The Earth's climate system is an astoundingly complex thermo dynamic system so unreasonable expectations about what our scientific research can deliver shouldn't be used to delay actions to mitigate known environmental problems.
Wealth, sciences and technology are the essential tools needed to solve environmental problems, so enforced changes to distribution of wealth are inevitable. We need a bigger pie and we must change the gross inequities in sharing that pie not just amongst ourselves, Homo Sapiens but in our sharing with the ecosystems of our Earth.

Sighs. (thinks, enough for now.)
Au Revoir Mes Amis
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flash2015
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Re: Polar Vortex

#29 Post by flash2015 » Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:13 pm

MajorMitchell wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:45 am
..sighs, (thinks, En Avante with a Daffy rant)...
Well done flash2015 (sighs, another player name with bicycle lock code?)
At the time I chose the handle, I didn't realize that it would be my identity until the heat death of the universe.

If I had known that in advance, I probably would have tried to be more creative.

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