Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:59 am
So we have our first gunboat game drawn and all but one 1v1 match are finished, so some of the math is starting to work itself out.
With the draw, Yorkshire Puddings and California have officially qualified for the Finals! And Three-Fifths Australia has officially been eliminated, as even a solo cannot put them into 4th place. Eastern Canada is very close to officially qualifying, but there are some technically-possible scenarios that could bump them to 4th place and have someone from Group A finish above them.
Group B Standings
The Yorkshire Puddings - 460.5
California - 407.5
Eastern Canada - 370.5
-------------------
Great Lakes - 283.5
____________
Brazil - 236
Great Plains - 231
Three-Fifths Australia - 20
While narrowing Italy from that gunboat draw might not have changed California's odds at qualifying, it does have a significant impact on Great Lakes and Brazil - as they could have scraped together 20 or so more points. You'll see below why that matters.
Group A Standings
Greatest Lakes - 382
Ain't No SC Not Edible (if Fried) - 293
Prosecco - 286
------------------
Sons of Vlad - 281
__________
God Save the Team - 197
Democracy Sausages - 179
Cheesesteaks - 144
You'll see here that there's just two and a half points separating our candidates for the 7th and final spot in the Finals. There is one 1v1 outstanding in Group A scoring, so we can add either 10 or 20 points to God Save the Team's score. An extra twenty points of cushion might make all the difference here for Great Lakes' chance at nabbing that 7th spot. Only a 2-way draw or solo can see Great Lakes move into 3rd place in Group B, so they are mainly competing against Brazil, Great Plains (both within striking distance with a draw) and the Group A field.
Funnily enough, Sons of Vlad is the team that benefited most from that 7-way public press draw. Democracy Sausages and God Save the Team would all be within 10-20 points of Sons of Vlad around 215 points had just they and Yigg (Greatest Lakes) been cut.
We also see here the effects of 1v1 play on the scores. Here the overall rankings are again, with 1v1 scores next to them. The average expected score would be 60 (3 wins, 3 losses). For argument's sake I'm hypothetically factoring in a draw in the last 1v1 going.
The Yorkshire Puddings - 460.5 (110)
California - 407.5 (60)
Greatest Lakes - 382 (70)
Eastern Canada - 370.5 (20)
Ain't No SC Not Edible (if Fried) - 293 (80)
Prosecco - 286 (100)
Great Lakes - 283.5 (90)
Sons of Vlad - 281 (60)
Brazil - 236 (40)
Great Plains - 231 (80)
God Save the Team - 197 (30)
Democracy Sausages - 179 (0)
Cheesesteaks - 144 (80)
Three-Fifths Australia - 20 (20)
And the result is about what I had hoped it would be. We can see that receiving bad or middling results at 1v1 won't stop you from getting through to the Finals (California, Greatest Lakes, Eastern Canada) or that being good isn't an automatic ticket in either (Great Plains, Cheesesteaks). But in the middle ground its absolutely the deciding factor for those edge case teams trying to get that 3rd or 4th place spot.
With the draw, Yorkshire Puddings and California have officially qualified for the Finals! And Three-Fifths Australia has officially been eliminated, as even a solo cannot put them into 4th place. Eastern Canada is very close to officially qualifying, but there are some technically-possible scenarios that could bump them to 4th place and have someone from Group A finish above them.
Group B Standings
The Yorkshire Puddings - 460.5
California - 407.5
Eastern Canada - 370.5
-------------------
Great Lakes - 283.5
____________
Brazil - 236
Great Plains - 231
Three-Fifths Australia - 20
While narrowing Italy from that gunboat draw might not have changed California's odds at qualifying, it does have a significant impact on Great Lakes and Brazil - as they could have scraped together 20 or so more points. You'll see below why that matters.
Group A Standings
Greatest Lakes - 382
Ain't No SC Not Edible (if Fried) - 293
Prosecco - 286
------------------
Sons of Vlad - 281
__________
God Save the Team - 197
Democracy Sausages - 179
Cheesesteaks - 144
You'll see here that there's just two and a half points separating our candidates for the 7th and final spot in the Finals. There is one 1v1 outstanding in Group A scoring, so we can add either 10 or 20 points to God Save the Team's score. An extra twenty points of cushion might make all the difference here for Great Lakes' chance at nabbing that 7th spot. Only a 2-way draw or solo can see Great Lakes move into 3rd place in Group B, so they are mainly competing against Brazil, Great Plains (both within striking distance with a draw) and the Group A field.
Funnily enough, Sons of Vlad is the team that benefited most from that 7-way public press draw. Democracy Sausages and God Save the Team would all be within 10-20 points of Sons of Vlad around 215 points had just they and Yigg (Greatest Lakes) been cut.
We also see here the effects of 1v1 play on the scores. Here the overall rankings are again, with 1v1 scores next to them. The average expected score would be 60 (3 wins, 3 losses). For argument's sake I'm hypothetically factoring in a draw in the last 1v1 going.
The Yorkshire Puddings - 460.5 (110)
California - 407.5 (60)
Greatest Lakes - 382 (70)
Eastern Canada - 370.5 (20)
Ain't No SC Not Edible (if Fried) - 293 (80)
Prosecco - 286 (100)
Great Lakes - 283.5 (90)
Sons of Vlad - 281 (60)
Brazil - 236 (40)
Great Plains - 231 (80)
God Save the Team - 197 (30)
Democracy Sausages - 179 (0)
Cheesesteaks - 144 (80)
Three-Fifths Australia - 20 (20)
And the result is about what I had hoped it would be. We can see that receiving bad or middling results at 1v1 won't stop you from getting through to the Finals (California, Greatest Lakes, Eastern Canada) or that being good isn't an automatic ticket in either (Great Plains, Cheesesteaks). But in the middle ground its absolutely the deciding factor for those edge case teams trying to get that 3rd or 4th place spot.
