Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

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goldfinger0303
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#241 Post by goldfinger0303 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:59 am

So we have our first gunboat game drawn and all but one 1v1 match are finished, so some of the math is starting to work itself out.

With the draw, Yorkshire Puddings and California have officially qualified for the Finals! And Three-Fifths Australia has officially been eliminated, as even a solo cannot put them into 4th place. Eastern Canada is very close to officially qualifying, but there are some technically-possible scenarios that could bump them to 4th place and have someone from Group A finish above them.

Group B Standings
The Yorkshire Puddings - 460.5
California - 407.5
Eastern Canada - 370.5
-------------------
Great Lakes - 283.5
____________
Brazil - 236
Great Plains - 231
Three-Fifths Australia - 20

While narrowing Italy from that gunboat draw might not have changed California's odds at qualifying, it does have a significant impact on Great Lakes and Brazil - as they could have scraped together 20 or so more points. You'll see below why that matters.

Group A Standings
Greatest Lakes - 382
Ain't No SC Not Edible (if Fried) - 293
Prosecco - 286
------------------
Sons of Vlad - 281
__________
God Save the Team - 197
Democracy Sausages - 179
Cheesesteaks - 144


You'll see here that there's just two and a half points separating our candidates for the 7th and final spot in the Finals. There is one 1v1 outstanding in Group A scoring, so we can add either 10 or 20 points to God Save the Team's score. An extra twenty points of cushion might make all the difference here for Great Lakes' chance at nabbing that 7th spot. Only a 2-way draw or solo can see Great Lakes move into 3rd place in Group B, so they are mainly competing against Brazil, Great Plains (both within striking distance with a draw) and the Group A field.

Funnily enough, Sons of Vlad is the team that benefited most from that 7-way public press draw. Democracy Sausages and God Save the Team would all be within 10-20 points of Sons of Vlad around 215 points had just they and Yigg (Greatest Lakes) been cut.


We also see here the effects of 1v1 play on the scores. Here the overall rankings are again, with 1v1 scores next to them. The average expected score would be 60 (3 wins, 3 losses). For argument's sake I'm hypothetically factoring in a draw in the last 1v1 going.

The Yorkshire Puddings - 460.5 (110)
California - 407.5 (60)
Greatest Lakes - 382 (70)
Eastern Canada - 370.5 (20)
Ain't No SC Not Edible (if Fried) - 293 (80)
Prosecco - 286 (100)
Great Lakes - 283.5 (90)
Sons of Vlad - 281 (60)
Brazil - 236 (40)
Great Plains - 231 (80)
God Save the Team - 197 (30)
Democracy Sausages - 179 (0)
Cheesesteaks - 144 (80)
Three-Fifths Australia - 20 (20)

And the result is about what I had hoped it would be. We can see that receiving bad or middling results at 1v1 won't stop you from getting through to the Finals (California, Greatest Lakes, Eastern Canada) or that being good isn't an automatic ticket in either (Great Plains, Cheesesteaks). But in the middle ground its absolutely the deciding factor for those edge case teams trying to get that 3rd or 4th place spot.
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#242 Post by VillageIdiot » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:58 am

Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2018 - 470.28
Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2016 - 632.5

Get your tickets to the gun show here ...

~Flex~
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#243 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:07 am

VillageIdiot wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:58 am
Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2018 - 470.28
Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2016 - 632.5

Get your tickets to the gun show here ...

~Flex~
Cascadia 2020... :razz:
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#244 Post by VillageIdiot » Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:25 am

TheFlyingBoat wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:07 am
VillageIdiot wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:58 am
Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2018 - 470.28
Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2016 - 632.5

Get your tickets to the gun show here ...

~Flex~
Cascadia 2020... :razz:
Seemed only fair to give somebody else an opportunity, but our shadow appears to be faring pretty well in this.

I kid of course. Looking forward to the finals!
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Yonni
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#245 Post by Yonni » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:48 pm

VillageIdiot wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:58 am
Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2018 - 470.28
Cascadia World Cup Round 1 2016 - 632.5

Get your tickets to the gun show here ...

~Flex~
I think we can safely draw a straight line between those points and assume you would have scored 308 this tournament. You used to be good but, you're what, 11th now?
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Hamilton Brian
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#246 Post by Hamilton Brian » Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:00 pm

I can't tell; was there a backhanded compliment in there somewhere?
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#247 Post by VillageIdiot » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:25 pm

Pardon me, you're stepping on my cape.
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goldfinger0303
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#248 Post by goldfinger0303 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:39 pm

Updating for the new Gunboat Group A finish. Just one left from each group now! (And a great 1v1 finish for God Save the Team!)

Group A
(c) Greatest Lakes - 382
Prosecco - 361.5
Sons of Vlad - 355.5
-------------------------
Ain't No SC Not Edible (if Fried) - 293
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Democracy Sausages - 256
God Save the Team - 217
Cheesesteaks - 144

If my math is correct, with this latest draw, Greatest Lakes has clinched a spot in the finals! Prosecco and Sons of Vlad are close, but both have mathematically possible scenarios where they can be eliminated. But it would take at least a 2-way draw by Great Lakes in Group B to assist.

Group B
(c) The Yorkshire Puddings - 460.5
(c) California - 407.5
Eastern Canada - 370.5
-----------------------------
Great Lakes - 283.5
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Brazil - 236
Great Plains - 231
(e) Three-Fifths Australia - 20

Eastern Canada is on the brink of qualification as well - to eliminate them would take a solo by Great Lakes, Brazil or Great Plains PLUS a 3-way draw in Group A of Prosecco, Sons of Vlad and Southeast USA, where SE USA has at least 16 centers. Fun math case to work out - not exactly probable though.

Its a close race for that 7th spot! Tons of teams are within striking distance, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out in our final games.
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#249 Post by cdngooner » Tue Mar 30, 2021 6:36 pm

Any sign of this tournament ever making it to its second phase?

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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#250 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:09 pm

cdngooner wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 6:36 pm
Any sign of this tournament ever making it to its second phase?
Waiting for games to finish.

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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#251 Post by VillageIdiot » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:42 pm

Which game is still going?

Yonni
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#252 Post by Yonni » Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:44 pm

These two:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=340103
https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=340104

I think mods need to make the "ready" button bigger. The players may have missed it.
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#253 Post by cdngooner » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:54 pm

IMO there is no reason for gunboat games to take 36 hours per phase. There is no press to send or receive. Its pure gamesmanship by a team or teams who want the other group to finish first so they can know what result they need in their game. This has to be addressed by the TD.
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#254 Post by cdngooner » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:55 pm

These games started January 12.
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#255 Post by bo_sox48 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:48 pm

Yonni wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:44 pm
I think mods need to make the "ready" button bigger. The players may have missed it.
I told jmo years ago that as our "old guard" actually got old, we'd have to code for all those people who refuse to get glasses.
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pyxxy
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#256 Post by pyxxy » Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:15 pm

cdngooner wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:54 pm
IMO there is no reason for gunboat games to take 36 hours per phase. There is no press to send or receive. Its pure gamesmanship by a team or teams who want the other group to finish first so they can know what result they need in their game. This has to be addressed by the TD.
Could you be more precise? Given all the point values are public, you should be able to reason out which team would theoretically being attempting to game the games, right?

In general, I agree that gunboats can be shorter, but this also allows people to have life get in the way without consequences. It suffers when people think the Ready button has cooties, which appears to be the case here. Makes me wants to pay the dev team $$$$ to add a feature like "average time to ready", so we can yell at people after the game ;)

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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#257 Post by RoganJosh » Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:30 pm

24 hours for gunboat should be ok. But we are allowed to discuss within the teams, so shorter than that isn't really possible.

Also, I'm not sure why anyone is in a hurry.
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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#258 Post by cdngooner » Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:40 am

this also allows people to have life get in the way without consequences.
Sure. Yet somehow the Full Press and Public Press players managed to end their games a month ago without anyone's real life falling apart.
Also, I'm not sure why anyone is in a hurry.
You call a desire to finish a tournament within living memory of when it started "a hurry"? These games started THREE MONTHS AGO. I don't think I'm in a hurry. I just believe that an event is best when you can still remember the beginning by the time you get to the end.

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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#259 Post by Yonni » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:30 pm

I'm not a huge fan of changing game parameters midway through them. Goldie admitted it was a mistake starting them late and it won't happen in the next round.

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Re: Announcing the 2021 WebDip World Cup!

#260 Post by cdngooner » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:40 pm

I don't blame Goldmember for the original rules. The frustration is with the players in the games.
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