ODC 2019 Tournament Start

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VillageIdiot
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#321 Post by VillageIdiot » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:21 am

Napoleon of Oz wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:16 am
Is there still a forced draw year rule in place?
There is, but I think it’s a such a far out deadline that I wouldn’t anticipate it’d come into play (1930 rings a bell).

teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#322 Post by teccles » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:22 am

VillageIdiot wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:19 am
Not that it matters in any way whatsoever, but Teccles what site do you call home?
Er... WebDiplomacy. Though I did play one face-to-face game when I was 10. The *only* thing I remember about it is being called "a lamb to the slaughter", which may also be an apt description in this final.
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jay65536
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#323 Post by jay65536 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:42 pm

VillageIdiot wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:21 am
Napoleon of Oz wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:16 am
Is there still a forced draw year rule in place?
There is, but I think it’s a such a far out deadline that I wouldn’t anticipate it’d come into play (1930 rings a bell).
Who would willingly vote up a draw in which they lose the tournament? The end year may very well come into play.
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Brumark
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#324 Post by Brumark » Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:15 pm

teccles wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:22 pm
Brumark wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:05 pm
As somewhat OCD about these sorts of things and an accountant by profession you numbers both being "essentially" but not actual the same as mine fill with a cold sense of dread. A mystery I must unravel. If not too onerous if you could let me know where the differences are via PM so I can investigate that would be hunky dorey.

My own hubris of course tells me that the error must be on your end.
I have your score at 75.7, rather than your 75.5. Probably just false modesty on your part.
For those that were panicking, the mystery is solved. I copied the number over wrong, a simple transposition error. Whilst I am obviously disappointed in myself - given the central pillar that my excel skills form to my sense of self worth - I am, as I am sure you all are too, greatly relieved that the calculation itself was not the source of the issue.
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The Belgian Bulldog
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#325 Post by The Belgian Bulldog » Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:06 pm

Prior to the final, shall we throw some ODC stats in?

  • Number of solos
R1 : 12 out of 37 games
1. Austria : 4
2. Turkey, Russia and France : 2
5. Germany and Italy : 1
7. England : 0

R1 : 1 out of 8 games
1. Turkey : 1
2. Others : 0

  • Number of defeats (died) per country
R1
1. Italy : 20/37
2. Austria : 19/37
3. Germany and Russia : 18/37
5. England : 16/37
6. Turkey : 13/37
7. France : 8/37

R2
1. Turkey : 6/8
2. Germany : 5/8
3. Austria and Russia : 3/8
5. England and France : 2/8
7. Italy : 0/8

  • Countries that have been played by the finalists
- Over their four games
1. England 6/7
2. France 5/7
3. Turkey 4/7
4. Germany/Austria/Italy 3/7 each
7. Russia 2/7

- In R2 :
1. England and Italy 3/7
3. Germany, Austria and Russia 2/7
6. France and Turkey 1/7

  • Some conclusions / remarkable facts
--> Italy was killed most in R1 (20/37), and least in R2 (0/8).
--> Turkey was the other way around. Second to France in having been killed least in R1 (13/37), but it was killed most in R2 (6/8).
--> France was by far the safest country overal, being killed only 10 times (next is England but with quite some difference, having been killed 18 times).

--> In Round 1, none of the finalists played Italy or Russia in R1, and only once did they play Austria (TBB) and Germany (YHN). In other words, they all played England, France and/or Turkey, most of them two out of three.

As I am typing this, words get fuzzy, so I'll stop apologies if I missed something in terms of stats/words.

Some thoughts / further stats someone wants to throw in?
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teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#326 Post by teccles » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:21 pm

I'd be interested in the SoS score for each country, if you have records that can produce it easily.

The finalists have an overall record on webdiplomacy of 59.9% draws, 17.6% solos, and 22.5% eliminations (in full press games). So I'm afraid we can expect only 1.4 players to be eliminated from this game, which sounds dull to me. On the bright side, 1.2 players should solo it, which is well above average.

I won't break that down by player, because I wouldn't want to shame the lone finalist who has never solo'd.
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teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#327 Post by teccles » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:31 pm

(Sorry, share with Brumark an ability to copy numbers to forum posts properly... we can actually expect 1.6 eliminations)

VillageIdiot
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#328 Post by VillageIdiot » Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:43 am

I sense I’m treading into unchartered territory, am I about to get Moneyball-ed? I may need to up my spreadsheet game before venturing into this match with all these hardcore analysts.
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Brumark
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#329 Post by Brumark » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:31 am

teccles wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:21 pm
I'd be interested in the SoS score for each country, if you have records that can produce it easily.
If bulldog doesnt have this I do. However I am away for the weekend so I will put up on sunday evening/Monday.

@VI for too long professions such as lawyers - with the sauve negotiation tactics and tricky words - have dominated this hobby, it's time for the rise of the analyst. Hiding in dark rooms, scared of sunlight and eschewing human contact. Your every move is reduced to an algorithm. Statistics and probability are the drumbeat to our success...

What's that some $#@$ had invented an AI bot who is going to do all that better? Oh crap. Well was good while it lastsed
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The Belgian Bulldog
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#330 Post by The Belgian Bulldog » Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:43 am

teccles wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:21 pm
I'd be interested in the SoS score for each country, if you have records that can produce it easily.
Good idea, here are the average SoS per country:

R1
1. France : 20.37
2. Austria : 18.39
3. Russia : 15.80
4. Turkey : 14.92
5. Germany : 13.27
6. England : 9.66
7. Italy : 7.60

Unsurprisingly this is largely correlated with the number of solos for the respective countries in the first round, with two exceptions:
- France jumped over Austria to the first place, which is likely related to France being defeated only 8 times.
- Italy dropped below England (the only country which never succeeded to solo), and this also is likely related to Italy being defeated most.

R2
1. England : 20.26
2. Italy : 20.06
3. Austria : 18.46
4. Turkey : 13.71
5. Germany : 11.81
6. France : 9.66
7. Russia : 5.50

It is almost like the result is turned upside down in R2, with England and Italy suddenly on top and France and Russia now trailing behind.

All ODC games
1. France : 18.47
2. Austria : 18.40
3. Turkey : 14.70
4. Russia : 13.97
5. Germany : 13.01
6. England : 11.54
7. Italy : 9.82

Given that there were 37 R1 games and only 8 R2 games, it is not surprising that this is largely in line with the R1 standings.

Some other things to highlight as well (although often unsurprising):
- Whenever Austria solo'd, Turkey died, and vice versa. Whenever France solo'd, England died.
- It is often said that Turkey is defensively strong, but difficult to solo with. Nonetheless, Turkey solo'd 3 times in total, second only to Austria's 4 times.
- Austria either had a solo or a poor result, with only exceptionally a larger cut of the draw. So Austria still seems to be the all or nothing country more than any other.
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teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#331 Post by teccles » Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:26 pm

Thanks! While we're being stats nerds, I thought I'd revisit my attempt to model the qualification threshold in the semi-finals.
teccles wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:43 pm
Here's my crack at this; it has simulations and stuff! TL;DR - 47.2

I assumed that:
  • The players are assigned randomly to games.
  • Each game has a random result, drawn from the (finished) results of the first round, except that I reduced the probability of solos to 1 in 6, because my understanding is that this should go down as the field gets stronger.
  • The results are randomly distributed among the players in the game.
I then simulated 1000 semi-finals. For each, I took the qualification threshold as halfway between the 7th and 8th best player. The final threshold - 47.2 - is the median of those thresholds.

Some other things:
  • To qualify 95% of the time, 51.1 points should do it.
  • To miss out 95% of the time, aim to get less than 39.2 points.
  • This threshold actually barely varies with solo probability; there's only a very slightly higher bar in a zero-solo world, and very slightly lower in a half-games-solo world.
  • I also tried out a model where the players have varied skill, so win probabilities weren't uniform. This also has remarkably little effect on the points needed to qualify.
This wasn't very wrong - the actual threshold for qualification (according to this way of measuring) was 51.0, just barely within my confidence interval. However, I think I missed an important factor which makes the bar higher than expected. I modelled correlations in a player's results due to their skill level, but I didn't model correlations due to knowing roughly what result they needed in their second game. This was a major factor, which I suspect affected a majority of the finalists' scores in significant ways:
  • I knew I needed a big score in G4 because G7 was going badly, and took some risks accordingly.
  • Brumark knew that decent draws would do in each game, and didn't chase various more risky options.
  • VI knew they needed only a small score in G8, and presumably this affected their decisions.
  • YHN needed a big score in G8, and presumably this affected their decisions.
I've got no idea how you would go about modelling this effect.
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Ogion
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#332 Post by Ogion » Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:38 pm

There was also an accidental draw in G6, which I'm not sure how you account for that...

VillageIdiot
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#333 Post by VillageIdiot » Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:25 pm

That was no accident, I made some deals with some unsavoury people to hack into Skids computer so I could make the finals. I owe some favours now but I think it was worth it.

#russianhacks

VillageIdiot
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#334 Post by VillageIdiot » Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:29 pm

“ VI knew they needed only a small score in G8, and presumably this affected their decisions.”

Minimally. I knew what I needed but wasn’t in the drivers seat in the slightest so all I could do was tap dance on the street corners and hope it garnered enough entertainment/pity for passers by to occasionally drop a spare point in my cup.
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swordsman3003
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#335 Post by swordsman3003 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:35 pm

I show my father the Round 2 results and explain that there will be a final round.

He responds: “Vegas has Belgian at 4-1 and [swordsman] at 7-1.”
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teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#336 Post by teccles » Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:54 am

So... shall we get this party started?

DipPlayer88
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#337 Post by DipPlayer88 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:00 pm

We are now at the cusp of one of the most anticipated games of all time, after almost a year of waiting. I, for one, will be watching this game with great interest and awe.

I was wondering though, would the 7 finalists be willing to disclose their press once the game ends? It is a suggestion, and there may be some reservations, but perhaps it would be an amazing contribution to the Diplomacy community. The last high level Full Disclosure game was in 2012, as far as I am aware: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_y7eR ... reWlB/view

Isn't this the most fitting game to memorialize for years to come, where Diplomacy players can use as a gold standard for how the game should be played, and for players of all levels to analyze and learn from?

Of course, only with the consent of the finalists.

Brumark
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#338 Post by Brumark » Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:51 pm

teccles wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:54 am
So... shall we get this party started?
Let's dink dank do this!

On the full press point not sure how I feel about that will give it some thought. I would want at least anything too personal an un-game related to be redacted.

teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#339 Post by teccles » Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:54 pm

Publishing press is an interesting suggestion. For my part, I'm also not up for promising *full* disclosure, simply because you get to know people in a game of Diplomacy, and I might say things about my real life that I wouldn't put on the public internet. However, I think I'd be up for an edited version that removes things which touch on real life.

On a related note, I intend to keep fairly comprehensive notes about my thoughts on the game as we go along. Swordsman has expressed interest in using these in writing about the game on BrotherBored. If anyone else is up for also contributing, it would awesome to see the thinking of various players in a top-level game (with or without the corresponding press).

The Belgian Bulldog
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#340 Post by The Belgian Bulldog » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:45 pm

What is this 'real life' my companions are referring to. I know nothing of that kind, so I guess the point is moot for me. In the absence thereof, I'll gladly cooperate if everyone agrees. If you want to reserve space for my press, I guess one page will do fine.

On the bets, isn't diplomacy a game based on luck? How can there be different odds for players for a game that depends on luck entirely? I remember someone writing about this topic recently, I thought it was called 'there's no such thing as skill'...
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